Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 5, 2025, 10:00 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH across frontlines. Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 145 combat engagements in the 24 hours preceding 08:00 UTC Apr 5. Russian offensive pressure is most significant on the Lyman, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk axes.
Russian Tactics & Capabilities:
Heavy reliance on aviation (107 strikes, 171 KABs reported past 24h by UGS), kamikaze drones (92 Shahed-type launched overnight Apr 4-5, 2737 total UAVs reported past 24h by UGS), and artillery/MLRS fire (6353 shelling attacks, 105 MLRS reported past 24h by UGS).
Continued adaptation of counter-drone tactics and deployment of specialized drone munitions, including fiber-optic guided drones ("Knyaz Vandal Novgorodsky" by "Tigers" UAV unit) used in ground ambush tactics on the Sumy border (Sudzha-Yunakivka road).
RU sources claim destruction of a UA drone signal amplifier in Orikhiv (Apr 5).
RU sources ("Sparta" Bn, 51st CAA) claim destruction of UA Kozak armored vehicle and 3 other vehicles via FPV drones, impacting UA logistics/mobility (Location unspecified, Apr 5).
Assessment (via UA Cmdr Pinchuk, 130th Bn): Russian forces demonstrate a willingness to accept high personnel/equipment losses for territorial gains.
RU sources (Slivochniy Kapriz) assess average daily RU advance rate in SVO zone (excl. Kursk) was 8.3 km² in March 2025.
Over 77,000 Russian targets reportedly hit/destroyed by drones in March 2025 (10% increase from Feb).
Fiber-optic guided drones with 20km range are operational on frontlines.
Approx. 1,000 Russian reconnaissance UAVs neutralized in the past month (Air Defence & interceptor drones).
Ongoing implementation of new EW systems, significant increase in deployed short-range EW assets (Input from "Ptakhy Madyara", 3rd Assault Bde).
UA Units (RUBPaK 118 ObTrO SPEAR Group B) report successful drone strikes targeting RU infantry, utilizing thermal imaging (Apr 5).
UA 39th Brigade reports drone strikes on RU targets (structure, personnel, vehicle, trench) on the Left Bank, Kherson Oblast, citing retaliation for Kryvyi Rih (Apr 5).
Ukrainian Deep Strikes (Night Apr 4-5 & Follow-up):
Saransk, Mordovia: Confirmed strike on "Optical Fiber Systems" plant (АТ «Оптиковолоконные Системы» - reportedly sole RU producer, crucial for military comms/drone control) at 54.2250389, 45.1958203.
Follow-up Attempt (Apr 5 Morning): RU/UA sources report further attempted UAV strike (light-aircraft based), fell on plant territory but failed to detonate. RU sources claim lack of local air defence.
Chapayevsk, Samara Oblast: Confirmed fire at "Promsintez" explosives plant (previously targeted).
Donetsk City (Occupied): RU sources claim massive UA long-range UAV attack overnight; 28 UAVs claimed destroyed by RU AD.
Other RU Claims: Alleged UA UAV strikes targeted energy infrastructure in Bryansk, Tambov, and Lipetsk oblasts.
Air Defence & Air Threats (Apr 5 Morning):
Russian Claims (Night Apr 4-5): Claim 77 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight across multiple RU regions and occupied territories (DNR-28, Voronezh-16, Belgorod-14, Kursk-6, Samara-6, Mordovia-3, Bryansk-1, Lipetsk-1, Oryol-1, Penza-1).
Ukrainian Air Defence (Night Apr 4-5): UA Air Force reported 92 Shahed-type UAVs launched by Russia. 51 shot down; 31 "locationally lost". Targets in Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Zhytomyr Oblasts.
Ongoing Threats (as of 10:00 UTC):
UA Air Force reported ballistic missile threat for oblasts under air alert (09:34 UTC).
Previous KAB launches towards Donetsk Oblast (08:52 UTC). Air threat warning for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (08:50 UTC). KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast and Sumy/Kharkiv border (08:11, 08:29 UTC).
Russian Resource Constraints & Logistics: Ongoing public fundraising appeals indicate continued reliance on volunteer support. Head of State Construction Supervision, MoD RF (Yuri Kozhevnikov) arrested for corruption (Apr 5), potential minor impact on MoD efficiency. Reports of disruptions to Alfa-Bank services in Russia (Apr 5).
Counter-Intelligence / Internal Security:
SBU Success (Kaminske): SBU reported detaining an alleged Russian agent preparing an IED detonation in Kaminske (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast).
GUR Rescue Operation: GUR successfully evacuated Ukrainian teacher Natalia Shylo from Russian-occupied territory.
International Support/Dynamics:
High-level meeting (France, UK Chiefs of Defence Staff) in Kyiv discussed continued support, military transformation, post-ceasefire security guarantees.
NATO SecGen Rutte stated NATO not participating in current US/Ukraine/Russia-led peace talks, has no "red lines" (Apr 5). Finnish President Stubb stated Western troop discussion only post-conflict.
US Ambassador Brink condemned Kryvyi Rih strike (Apr 5); UA sources express frustration with lack of explicit attribution to Russia and call for more weapons.
Reports of alleged dispute between US Treasury official Bessent and President Zelenskyy over leaked minerals deal proposal; Zelenskyy previously ordered investigation into leak (Apr 5).
Reuters Report (via UA/RU sources): Alleged GRU plot involving explosive devices hidden in packages (cosmetics, sex toys) sent to UK, Germany, Poland last summer. Four detained in Poland in October. Aimed to cause explosions, potentially on aircraft, with ultimate targets in US/Canada. Reaffirmed Apr 5.
Unconfirmed RU source report claims Germany secretly funded non-Starlink satellite comms for Ukraine for ~1 year.
Poland facilitated delivery of 5,000 Starlink terminals (Apr 3). Denmark approved €900M aid package (2025-2027). Germany provided €130M package. Lithuania delivered 6 AD systems. Latvia sending 1500 UAVs.
RU sources claim NATO exercise Dacian Spring 25 (Romania, May) postponed to autumn due to poor road conditions (Apr 5).
Ukrainian Resource Needs & Morale: Public fundraising appeal for 24th Aidar Bn, 72nd Mech Bde, SSO units continues. Highlighted need for FPV drones (3,370 requested for 95 units, Apr 3). UA units (UDA "Dnipro Shturmhevery", National Guard "Chervona Kalyna") express strong retaliatory motivation following Kryvyi Rih attack, conducting operations in the East (Apr 5).
Information Warfare:
RU sources claim UA shelling/mistreatment of civilians/soldiers (Kursk, Kurakhove, Kryvyi Rih), circulate derogatory polls. RU sources claim mass looting by Sumy residents in Kursk Oblast during UA incursion (Apr 5). RU sources claim interview with civilian from Kazachya Loknya (Kursk) alleging mistreatment by UA soldiers in March (Apr 5).
RU source (Kotenok) claims Kyiv regime may use WMD or stage nuclear infrastructure attacks (Apr 5).
RU source (Alex Parker) claims spotting new UA tactical sign (two arrows) on Kupyansk direction, alleging UA preparations for Kharkiv offensive (Apr 5).
RU sources claim possession of intercepted UA documents on transport aviation structure/vulnerabilities (likely propaganda).
RU sources claim deliberate UA drone attacks targeted civilians in Kurakhove (Donetsk Oblast) while under UA control (TASS, Apr 3).
UA Prosecutor General reports 616 children killed, 1863 injured since full-scale invasion (Apr 5).
Personnel & Training:
UA General Staff reports 9th graduation ceremony for military chaplains trained at Taras Shevchenko National University Military Institute.
UA sources (BUTUSOV PLUS) released video showing alleged deceased RU soldiers in poor conditions (Apr 5), highlighting RU losses.
II. Major Incident: Kryvyi Rih Combined Attacks (Apr 4) - UPDATED
Casualties (Consolidated Reports, Apr 5 - Rescue Ops Concluded): Mayor Vilkul / ODA Head Lysak report 19 Killed (incl. 9 children), 68 Wounded. 38 remain hospitalized (incl. 6 children), many with severe/critical injuries (Official Prosecutor General figures: 9 children killed, 11 children injured). Days of Mourning declared Apr 7-9. Ongoing memorials reported at the site.
Sequence & Weapons:
Afternoon Iskander-M with cluster munition (launched from Taganrog) hit residential district/playground (UGS/Vilkul). No military targets present (Vilkul).
Evening/Night mass Shahed drone attack targeted the city.
Damage: Extensive damage to ~34 multi-story residential buildings, 6 educational facilities, private houses, playgrounds, businesses, infrastructure. Clean-up/support/aid distribution efforts ongoing.
Russian Information Warfare: Persistent denial/disputing civilian casualties, claims of hitting military targets, questioning presence of military personnel near impact site.
III. Key Frontline Developments
Lyman Axis:Highest Intensity.39 Russian attacks reported (UGS, past 24h). Assaults focused towards Novomykhailivka, Katerynivka, Hrekivka, Olhivka, Novoserhiivka, Nove, Nadiia.
RU Claims (Apr 5): Expanded control N/W of Makiivka near Zherebets River; fierce fighting near Vishneve; RU forces captured strongpoints near Ivanivka.
RU Claims (Apr 5): Tactical successes near Udachne. Continued UA counter-attacks in Shevchenko (heavy UA losses claimed); RU claim expanding control N of Shevchenko by 500m. RU claim identifying UA reserves E of Kotlino and striking them. RU "Sparta" Bn claims destroying UA Kozak armored vehicle and 3 other vehicles via FPV drones in this general area of operations.
UA Border Guards claim destruction of RU tank, 2 vehicles, 2 surveillance cameras, 4 positions in Kharkiv Oblast.
RU source (Alex Parker) alleges UA preparing new strike groups for potential counteroffensive based on spotting new tactical markings (two arrows) near Kupyansk.
South Donetsk / Novopavlivsk Axis:
RU MoD/Sources claim destruction of UA T-64 tank near Bohatyr.
RU Sources (Voin_DV / Colonelcassad) claim joint strikes disrupted UA rotation / destroyed infantry group near Shevchenko.
Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank Kherson):
RU claim detection and destruction of 2 UA saboteurs attempting landing on Left Bank via boat (Apr 5).
UA 39th Brigade reports drone strikes on RU targets (structure, personnel, vehicle, trench) on the Left Bank, citing retaliation for Kryvyi Rih (Apr 5).
Kursk/Sumy Border Area:
RU claims FPV drone unit ("Tigers") employing ground ambush tactics with fiber-optic guided drones on the Sumy border (Sudzha-Yunakivka road).
RU claim UA FPV position, Starlink antenna destroyed in Chernihiv border region.
RU sources allege mass looting by Sumy residents in Kursk Oblast during UA incursion (Apr 5). RU source claims mistreatment of civilian in Kazachya Loknya (Kursk) by UA soldiers in March (Apr 5).
RU MoD reports award ceremony for 18th Motorised Rifle Division (Sever Group) for actions in this border area (Apr 5).
Orikhiv Axis:
RU source (Rogov) claims RU forces destroyed a UA drone signal amplifier in Orikhiv (Apr 5).
Kramatorsk/Chasiv Yar Axis: Positional fighting continues. Previous major RU mechanized assaults repelled near Andriivka (Apr 2/3).
Siversk Axis: RU "Southern" Group aviation claims strike on UA temporary deployment point in Siversk, alleging 28 UA KIA (Apr 5).
Kupyansk Axis: RU source (Alex Parker) claims spotting new UA tactical sign (two arrows) on equipment, links it to alleged UA preparation for Kharkiv offensive (Apr 5).
Donetsk City (Occupied): RU sources claim massive UA long-range UAV attack overnight; 28 UAVs claimed destroyed by RU AD.
IV. Naval Situation
(No significant updates compared to the Apr 3 assessment: No RU warships reported active in Black/Azov Seas; 4 RU warships (3 Kalibr carriers, 26 missile salvo) in Mediterranean as of Apr 3.)
V. Other Noteworthy Items
Russian Internal: Head of State Construction Supervision, MoD RF (Yuri Kozhevnikov) arrested for corruption (Apr 5). Reports of disruptions to Alfa-Bank services in Russia (Apr 5). Reports of increasing desecration of RU war graves in Russia (Apr 5). Emergency regime declared in Khakassia due to weather/fire risk; hurricane-force winds cause injuries/damage in Abakan (Apr 5). Zoos closed in Krasnoyarsk/Abakan due to wind (Apr 5).
Weather Impact: Forecast for Apr 6 in Bryansk Oblast includes heavy wet snow, freezing rain, icing. Hurricane-force winds reported in Khakassia (Russia).
