Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 5, 2025, 08:00 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH across the frontlines. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 145 combat engagements during the past 24 hours (as of 08:00 UTC Apr 5). Russian offensive pressure continues, particularly focused on the Lyman, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk axes.
Russian Air & Missile Activity (Night Apr 4-5):
Massive Russian UAV attack launched from multiple directions (Bryansk, Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - RF; Chauda - Occupied Crimea) involving 92 Shahed-type UAVs and various imitator drones.
Ukrainian Air Defence Response: Aviation, SAM units, EW, and Mobile Fire Groups engaged the attack. 51 Shahed-type UAVs confirmed destroyed. An additional 31 imitator drones were reported "locationally lost" without negative consequence (UA Air Force, 09:00 UTC Apr 5).
Confirmed Impacts: Resulting impacts reported in Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, and Zhytomyr Oblasts (UA Air Force).
Dnipropetrovsk Update: Morning shelling in Malomykhailivska community (Synelnykivskyi district) resulted in 2 civilians wounded (13-year-old boy, 33-year-old woman), treated as outpatients. Approximately 17 private houses were damaged (Dnipropetrovsk OVA Head, 07:54 UTC).
Russian Claims: Russian sources claim 77 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed overnight across multiple Russian regions, including occupied territories (DNR-28, Voronezh-16, Belgorod-14, Kursk-6, Samara-6, Mordovia-3, Bryansk-1, Lipetsk-1, Oryol-1, Penza-1).
Active Air Threat: As of 07:17 UTC Apr 5, an active threat of Russian Shahed UAVs was reported for Kharkiv Oblast (UA Air Force).
Russian Tactics: Continued heavy reliance on aviation (107 strikes, 171 KABs reported past 24h by UGS), kamikaze drones (2737 reported past 24h by UGS; 560 confirmed in South), and artillery/MLRS fire (6353 shelling attacks, 105 MLRS reported past 24h by UGS). Russian forces are adapting counter-drone tactics and actively developing/deploying specialized drone munitions, including incendiary types confirmed in Kursk Oblast (RU Sources).
Russian Resource Constraints: Ongoing fundraising appeals from Russian sources for frontline units (e.g., assault troops on Pokrovsk axis, units in Kursk) indicate continued reliance on volunteer support/crowdfunding for essential equipment, including commercial drones (DJI Mavic 3T/3Pro, suggesting need for thermal/night capabilities), communications gear, and vehicles.
Ukrainian Deep Strikes (Night Apr 4-5): Confirmed Ukrainian UAV strikes caused significant fires at strategic industrial facilities deep inside Russia:
Saransk, Mordovia: "Optical Fiber Systems" plant (АТ «Оптиковолоконные Системы» - reportedly Russia's sole producer) hit. Strike confirmed by UA sources and imagery analysis locating damage at coordinates 54.2250389, 45.1958203. Russian sources confirm target was the optical fiber plant.
Chapayevsk, Samara Oblast: "Promsintez" explosives plant (previously targeted), fire confirmed by local governor and Russian sources.
Other RU Claims: Russian sources also allege UA UAV strikes targeted energy infrastructure in Bryansk, Tambov, and Lipetsk oblasts.
Naval Situation (Apr 5 AM):1 Russian Kalibr missile carrier deployed in the Black Sea (potential salvo: 4 missiles). 3 Kalibr carriers remain in the Mediterranean Sea (potential salvo: 26 missiles). No Russian warships reported in the Sea of Azov (UA Navy).
Information Warfare: Russian sources continue narratives alleging Ukrainian mistreatment of civilians in occupied parts of Kursk Oblast (Sudzhansky district). Reports persist regarding alleged progress in Russia-US backchannel talks (via RDIF Head/Trump representatives) on a ceasefire – assess with high caution as likely info-op/political positioning.
II. Major Incident: Kryvyi Rih Combined Attacks (Apr 4) - UPDATED
Casualties (Consolidated Reports, Apr 5): Rescue operations concluded. Confirmed 18 Killed (including 9 children), Over 60 Wounded (including at least 12 children). Mayor Vilkul reports 19 Killed (incl. 9 children), 68 Wounded (40 hospitalized, 17 serious, 2 children critical). Memorials with flowers and toys established at the impact site (playground). Days of Mourning declared Apr 7-9.
Sequence & Weapons:
Afternoon Ballistic Missile Strike: Confirmed Iskander-M with cluster munition launched from Taganrog, impacting a residential district/playground (UGS/Vilkul). Mayor Vilkul explicitly stated no military/police/critical infrastructure targets were present.
Evening/Night Mass Shahed Drone Attack: Targeted the city.
Russian Information Warfare: Persistent denial of civilian casualties, claims of hitting military targets (commanders/Western instructors meeting), disputing cluster munition use.
III. Key Frontline Developments (Based on UGS Report 08:00 UTC, Apr 5 & Other Sources)
Lyman Axis:Highest Intensity.39 Russian attacks reported in past 24h (UGS). Assaults focused towards Novomykhailivka, Katerynivka, Hrekivka, Olhivka, Novoserhiivka, Nove, and near Nadiia.
RU Claims (Rybar/WarGonzo, Apr 5): RU forces expanded control N/W of Makiivka near Zherebets River; Fierce fighting near Vishneve; UA counterattacks near Nadiia achieved minimal results in March; RU forces captured strongpoints near Ivanivka.
RU Claims (WarGonzo, Apr 5): RU tactical successes claimed near Udachne. Fierce fighting ongoing. Confirmed RU capture of Oleksandropil and Uspenivka. RU forces repelled UA counterattack near Kotlyno.
Resource Needs: RU assault units in this sector continue public fundraising for drones, comms, and vehicles.
Toretsk Axis: High level of Russian attacks continues. Oleksandropil confirmed captured by RU forces (Apr 3-5).
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis:
RU Claims (WarGonzo/Voin DV, Apr 5): RU forces advancing towards Bohatyr. Russian artillery (30th Arty Bde/36th CAA) claimed destruction of UA shelters in Fedorivka and Bohatyr.
Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar): Fighting persists.
RU Claim (TASS, Apr 5): Group of "elite" UA soldiers reportedly destroyed by FPV drones near Chasiv Yar.
Kursk/Sumy Border Operations:
Ukrainian Actions: UA forces continue operations in Kursk Oblast, repelling 18 Russian attacks in the past 24 hours (UGS). UA DShV (Air Assault Forces) reported successful reconnaissance by a specific unit (Lt. Vladyslav's group) near Sudzha: detected and repelled a Russian DRG, identified approx. 10 minefields and hidden RU positions, enabling subsequent effective destruction of an RU unit.
Russian Actions: Intense Russian shelling (362 arty attacks, 8 MLRS) and air strikes (13 air strikes, 20 KABs) reported on the Kursk direction (UGS). Russian forces confirmed using specialized drone munitions (incendiary focus) in the area.
RU Claims (WarGonzo/Rybar/TASS, Apr 5): Ongoing fighting near Oleshnia and Huyevo (Kursk), RU advancing towards Oleshnia. RU advance claimed near Basovka (Sumy border). Destruction of UA SSO groups transferred from Sumy to Sudzha forests claimed. RU Investigative Committee pursuing claims of alleged UA mistreatment of civilians in Sudzhansky district.
Belgorod Border Operations:
RU Claims (WarGonzo, Apr 5): Ukrainian forces attempting to expand bridgehead into Belgorod Oblast territory. Russian forces claim repelling UA attempts to advance near Demidovka and Popovka.
Ukrainian Actions: UA forces continue operations on the left (East) bank. UA 39th Brigade reported drone strikes targeting RU positions, shelters, and a makeshift bridge on the left bank, claiming retaliation for the Kryvyi Rih attack.
Siversk Axis:
RU Claim (MoD RU, Apr 5): Russian artillery (D-30) and UAVs (Yug Group) claimed destruction of 3 Ukrainian drone control posts and personnel.
Occupied Territories:
Horlivka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian sources claim renewed Ukrainian shelling targeted the Nikitovsky district, hitting residential buildings and a fire station, wounding one employee and damaging vehicles.
