Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 4, 2025, 07:57 UTC
(Derived from intelligence reports dated Apr 1 - Apr 4, incorporating Ukrainian General Staff data as of Apr 4 05:00 UTC, UA Air Force data up to Apr 4 07:08 UTC, regional administration reports, Southern Defense Forces update as of 08:00 Kyiv Time Apr 4, and other sources up to Apr 4 07:57 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 156 combat engagements over the past 24 hours (as of 05:00 UTC Apr 4). Southern Defense Forces reported continued high intensity in their sector.
Primary Russian Offensive Pressure: Concentrated with extremely high intensity on the Pokrovsk axis (57 attacks repelled) and significant intensity on the Toretsk axis (29 attacks repelled). Russian sources report advances near Andriivka and fighting on the outskirts of Oleksiivka (Pokrovsk direction). Russian volunteer groups actively crowdfunding for equipment (vehicles, satcom, drone detectors) for assault units on the Pokrovsk axis, indicating potential logistical needs.
Other Active Fronts (Past 24h - UGS unless noted): High levels of combat activity persist on the Lyman (19 attacks), Kursk border (13 clashes), Novopavlivsk (9 attacks), Orikhiv (8 attacks reported by UGS; 8 reported by Southern Def Forces near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamyanske), Kupyansk (5 attacks), Siversk (4 attacks), Kharkiv (4 attacks), and Prydniprovsky (2 attempts repelled by UGS; 2 attempts repelled by Southern Def Forces) directions. Russian sources report increased intensity near Lobkove, Shcherbaky, and Kamyanske (Orikhiv axis).
Weather Impact: Russian sources continue reporting difficult ground mobility due to rain and mud, though offensive actions persist.
Russian Production Assessment (RUSI Report via RU sources, Apr 4): A RUSI report allegedly finds Russia surpassed NATO in military production between 2022-2024, presenting a "strategic threat" to NATO and a "catastrophic risk" to Ukraine. (Assessment requires verification).
UGS (05:00 UTC): Russia conducted 1 missile strike, 104 aviation strikes (using 193 KABs), over 5600 shelling attacks (146 MLRS), and employed 2203 kamikaze drones.
Southern Def Forces (reported 07:13 UTC for past day in South): ~270 shelling attacks (>1100 munitions); >350 kamikaze drone strikes; ~200 UAV ordnance drops; 26 KABs; 22 NARs. Attacks impacted frontline areas in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, targeting civilian populations and infrastructure.
Massive strikes on Kharkiv overnight: Confirmed impacts in Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts from overnight drone attack. Russian MoD released video showing MLRS use. Casualty update for Kharkiv: 5 KIA, 32 WIA (Kharkiv OVA, 07:30 UTC).
Specific KAB/Air Strike Locations (UGS/SDF): Sumy Oblast (Stepek, Myropilske, Pokrovka, Petrushivka, Velyka Pysarivka, Turya, Prokhody, Krasnopillya, Ryasne, Velyky Prykil, Mykhailivske); Chernihiv Oblast (Mykolaivka); Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, Novopil, Voskresenka); Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Sichneve, Velykomykhailivka, Malynivka, Komyshuvakha); Huliaipole Axis (NARs on Novopil, Malynivka; KABs on Komyshuvakha - SDF).
Accidental Russian Munition Drops (ASTRA Report, Apr 4): ASTRA, citing sources, claims at least 49 aerial bombs (43 FAB, 6 UMPB) and 3 missiles were accidentally dropped by Russian aircraft onto Russian regions and occupied territories since Jan 1, 2025. Includes 8 alleged incidents (FAB-250, UMPB D-30SN) in Belgorod & Kursk Oblasts between Mar 29-30 near Tyurino, Domnino, Tomarovka, Glinitsa, Kozychevo, Pushkarne, Streletskoye. (Claims require independent verification).
Alleged UA TTPs (RU Claim): RU sources claim UA forces are using "Baba Yaga" drones to drop mines and plastic explosives disguised as communication devices into residential yards in Kherson Oblast (Mash na Donbasse, Apr 4). (Requires verification).
Ukrainian Air Defense / Strikes (Past 24h):
Overnight Drone Attack (Night Apr 3-4 - UA AF): Russia launched 78 UAVs (Shahed & various imitator types). UA Air Force reports 42 Shahed/other attack UAVs shot down over North, East, Center Ukraine. 22 imitator drones were "locationally lost" without negative consequences. RU MoD claimed 107 Ukrainian UAVs intercepted across 11 regions (repeated by RU sources Apr 4 morning).
Ground Target Strikes (UGS): Ukrainian forces targeted 9 Russian concentration areas (personnel/equipment), 2 UAV control points, 2 artillery pieces, and 1 command/observation post. Video evidence released by UA units shows successful drone strikes against RU vehicles, positions, and personnel. Video released showing aftermath of successful UA artillery/drone strikes destroying a Russian column ("road of death").
Claimed Target Strike (UA - Shadow Unit, Apr 4): Destruction of a Russian "Tirada-2" Electronic Warfare (EW) station by UA UAVs confirmed via video.
Claimed Drone Strikes (UA - Phoenix Unit/DPSU, Apr 4): Video released claiming drone strikes by State Border Guard Service unit "Phoenix" on the Kramatorsk axis resulted in 17 RU KIA and 11 RU WIA.
Claimed Drone/Arty Strikes (RU sources, Apr 4): RU Lancet drone destroyed UA pickup truck in Dyliivka (Toretsk axis); RU UAV detected UA drone signal enhancement antenna in the same area, destroyed by artillery (Colonelcassad, citing specific RU units).
Claimed Drone Strikes (RU sources, Apr 4): RU FPV drones (58th Army) destroyed at least 4 UA pickup trucks in the Orikhiv axis rear area (Podubnyy).
Communication & Logistics: Poland delivered another 5,000 Starlink terminals to Ukraine, bringing the total to over 50,000 (over 29,500 from Poland, which also covers subscription costs). Ukraine exploring alternatives like EU's Govsatcom and IRIS2, with EU reportedly in talks with SES, Hisdesat, Viasat, Eutelsat/OneWeb (Rybář).
II. Major Axes & Operational Updates
Pokrovsk Axis: Remains highest intensity zone (57 RU attacks repelled - UGS). Fighting near Novokalynove, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Preobrazhenka, Sribne, Novoserhiivka, Nadiivka, Uspenivka, Andriivka, and attacks towards Romanivka, Oleksiivka, Vodyane Druhe, Kotlyarivka, Oleksandropil.
RU CLAIM (Rybar, Apr 4): RU forces advanced west of Andriivka (SW of Bakhmut) towards Oleksiivka (approx. 3km advance near Andriivka); fighting ongoing on the outskirts of Oleksiivka.
UA CLAIM (Butusov/46th Airmobile Bde, Apr 4): Video shows destruction of RU assault column (incl. 42 infantry) near Andriivka (likely SW of Bakhmut).
RU Support Needs (Dva Mayora, Apr 4): Crowdfunding appeal launched for assault units on this axis, requesting UAZ pickup, satellite comms, drone detectors, anti-drone devices.
UA CLAIM (Butusov, Apr 4): Video shows 12th Azov Brigade repelling RU assault near Toretsk involving motorcycles, buggies, BTRs using combined arms.
RU CLAIM (Colonelcassad, Apr 4): RU Lancet drone destroyed UA pickup truck in Dyliivka. RU artillery destroyed UA drone signal antenna near Dyliivka after detection by UAV. Actions attributed to specific RU units (102 MSP, 174 ORB, 346 OBrSpN, 77 MSP).
Lyman Axis: High activity (19 RU attacks repelled - UGS). Fighting near Hrekivka, Nove, Katerynivka, and towards Novomykhailivka, Torske, Zelena Dolyna.
RU CLAIM (Rybar/Voenkor Kotenok, Apr 4): RU forces captured strongpoints on Lozova – Veselyi Hai line; slow progress towards Borovska Andriivka. Fighting near Nadiia; RU assault groups occupied positions near Novoliubivka. RU forces ("West" Group) pushed UA forces back from Nevske and Novoliubivka, attempting to link with northern плацдарм near Makiivka. Attacks ongoing West of Balka Zhuravka.
Kursk Border / Sumy Oblast: High activity (13 clashes - UGS). RU conducted 359 arty attacks (4 MLRS), 16 air strikes (28 KABs) in past 24h (UGS).
Presidential Visit (UA DShV, Apr 4): President Zelenskyy visited and awarded soldiers of the 82nd Air Assault Brigade, confirming their participation in operations within Kursk Oblast.
RU CLAIM (WarGonzo/Rybar, Apr 4): RU forces advancing towards Huyevo and Oleshnia, expanding control zone. UA forces established defense south of Huyevo at Hornal Monastery. RU assault groups using ATVs attacking near Basivka (Sumy Oblast).
RU CLAIM (TASS, Apr 4, 06:35 UTC): Ukrainian counter-attack towards Veselovka (Kursk Oblast) repelled; attacking group destroyed.
RU CLAIM (TASS, Apr 4, 06:58 UTC): RU forces destroying "elite" UA assault units in Sudzha district (Kursk Oblast).
Current Threat (UA AF, 06:24 UTC Apr 4):KABs launched by RU tactical aviation towards Sumy Oblast.
Novopavlivsk Axis / South Donetsk / Vremivka: Significant activity (9 RU assaults repelled - UGS). Attacks towards Rozlyv and Kostiantynopil. Vesele & Razliv confirmed captured by RU previously.
RU CLAIM (WarGonzo/Rybar, Apr 4): RU forces advancing towards Bohatyr and Komar. Tactical successes near Burlatske. RU "Vostok" Group broke through UA positions, cleared Vesele. Fighting continues towards Fedorivka. Reported advance near Volne Pole and Burlatske. Advance near Bohatyr claimed: 1km deep, 1.5km wide.
RU CLAIM (Voin DV, Apr 4): Video shows RU 14th Spetsnaz Brigade drone destroying UA AGS near Bohatyr. RU 5th Tank Brigade (36th Army, GpV Vostok) personnel claimed involvement in capture of Vesele (Voin DV, 07:30 UTC Apr 4).
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): High activity (8 unsuccessful RU attacks - UGS; 8 engagements reported by Southern Def Forces near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamyanske). Lobkove confirmed captured by RU previously.
RU CLAIM (WarGonzo/Rybar, Apr 4): Combat activity intensified near Kamyanske, Lobkove, and Shcherbaky, with RU forces expanding zone of control. RU forces attempting to push UA forces back across a water barrier near Kamyanske.
RU CLAIM (Podubnyy, Apr 4): RU FPV drones (58th Army) destroyed at least 4 UA pickup trucks in the rear area on this axis.
Civilian Infrastructure Impact (RU claim): FPV drone strike hit electrical substation in Vasylivskyi district, causing power outage for approx. 9,000 civilians.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Low activity (2 RU attempts repelled - UGS; 2 RU attempts repelled, RU retreated with losses - Southern Def Forces). Mutual shelling ongoing. RU sources report 2 civilians WIA from UA shelling. Listed settlements under RU fire: Aleshky, Kakhovka, Tavriisk, Hornostaivka, Kairy, Kniaze-Hryhorivka, Korobky, Liubymivka, Nova Maiachka, Stara Zburivka.
Alleged UA TTPs (RU Claim): RU sources claim UA using "Baba Yaga" drones to drop mines and plastic explosives disguised as communication devices into residential yards (Mash na Donbasse, Apr 4). (Requires verification).
Huliaipole Axis (Zaporizhzhia): No RU ground offensive actions reported (Southern Def Forces). RU air strikes with NAR on Novopil and Malynivka, KABs on Komyshuvakha (SDF).
Kupyansk Axis: Moderate activity (5 RU attacks repelled - UGS). Attacks near Zahryzove, Petropavlivka, and towards Nova Kruhliakivka.
RU CLAIM (Slyvochnyi Kapriz/Voenkor Kotenok, Apr 4): RU forces occupied new positions on the west bank of Oskil River north of Dvorichna. After capturing Krasne Pershe, RU forces blocked road towards Kamianka and initiated fighting within Kamianka. Fighting also ongoing for Figolivka (south), and in NE Kondrashivka / SE Mala Shapkivka.
Kharkiv Axis: Low activity (4 RU attacks repelled - UGS near Vovchansk and Kamyanka over past 24h). Intense overnight RU drone strikes on Kharkiv city.
III. Air & Naval Situation
Air Threats:
Ballistic Missile Threat for Eastern Oblasts ENDED (UA AF, 07:08 UTC).
Air Raid Alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast ENDED (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 07:08 UTC).
Threat of Russian tactical aviation activity on northeastern direction impacting frontline oblasts remains possible. Earlier KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast reported (UA AF, 06:24 UTC).
Naval Situation (Black/Azov/Mediterranean Seas - as of Apr 4, 03:00 UTC):
Black Sea / Sea of Azov: No Russian warships or Kalibr carriers detected (UA Navy).
UGS reported 13 clashes in Kursk direction over past 24h.
82nd Air Assault Brigade confirmed operating in Kursk Oblast (UA DShV/Presidential Office).
RU CLAIM (WarGonzo/Dnevnik Desantnika/Rybar/TASS, Apr 4): Heavy fighting continues near Dmytrivka and Popovka (Belgorod); UA attempting infiltration, RU repelling attacks with drones/artillery. Fighting also near Demidovka (Belgorod). RU forces advancing near Huyevo, Oleshnia (Kursk). UA counter-attack near Veselovka (Kursk) repelled, group destroyed (TASS). RU forces destroying "elite" UA assault units in Sudzha district (Kursk) (TASS).
Massive Overnight Drone Attack (Apr 3-4):
UA Air Force Data: Russia launched 78 UAVs (Shahed & imitators); 42 attack UAVs shot down, 22 imitators lost track.
RU MoD Claims: Intercepted 107 Ukrainian UAVs overnight across 11 regions (Kursk-34, Oryol-30, Lipetsk-18, Kaluga-7, Rostov-4, Azov Sea-4, Tambov-3, Moscow region-3, Bryansk-2, Voronezh-1, Tula-1).
Bryansk Oblast:1 civilian KIA, 1 WIA in Belaia Berezka from drone attack (RU Gov/Rybar). Building/vehicle damage.
Bryansk Oblast (Klimovsky Dist.): Remotely Controlled IED detonated near civilian car between Churovichi and Khoromnoye, driver lightly injured (RU Gov Bogomaz, Apr 4).
Moscow Oblast: Damage to houses in Streymilovo (RU source). Flight restrictions at Vnukovo, Domodedovo, Zhukovsky airports lifted.
Other Oblasts: Intercepts claimed by RU MoD.
Claimed RU losses on RU territory: UA units claim destruction of Engineering vehicles near Demidovka (Belgorod, Apr 3 claim).
Claimed Foiled Terror Attack (RU FSB/SK, Apr 4): Russian FSB claims to have prevented a terrorist attack in the Moscow region (Podmoskovye), allegedly targeting a military cadet dormitory. A 49-year-old Russian serviceman was reportedly detained on April 2 after receiving an explosive device. FSB alleges he was recruited by Ukrainian intelligence (GUR) via social media in March and was part of a prohibited "terrorist community." Claims include recovery of explosive components and incriminating correspondence with a Ukrainian handler. (Russian claims require verification).
V. Territorial Control Changes (Summary - Based on reports up to Apr 4, 07:57 UTC)
Ukrainian Advance: Previously reported near Pokrovsk (ISW, Apr 2); Reported near Novoelizavetivka (SW of Pokrovsk, ISW Apr 4); Reported entry into Nadiia (Lyman axis, ISW Apr 4); Claimed advance to western outskirts of Solone (SW of Pokrovsk, RU sources cited by UA source Apr 4).
Russian Captures Confirmed (Apr 1-3):Oleksandropil (Toretsk), Vesele (Novopavlivsk/Vremivka), Lobkove (Orikhiv), Razliv (Novopavlivsk). Krasne Pershe (Kupyansk axis - RU Claim Apr 4 implies capture prior to push on Kamianka). RU sources re-emphasize role of 5th Tank Brigade in Vesele capture (Voin DV, Apr 4).
Russian Advances Claimed/Geolocated (Recent):
Pokrovsk: West of Andriivka towards Oleksiivka (Rybar, approx. 3km advance near Andriivka); fighting on outskirts of Oleksiivka (Rybar).
Novopavlivsk/Vremivka: Towards Bohatyr/Komar, near Burlatske (WarGonzo); Towards Fedorivka from Vesele (Rybar). Geolocated advance along Mokri Yaly river. Advance near Volne Pole, Burlatske. Advance near Bohatyr (1km deep, 1.5km wide) (Rybar).
Kursk/Sumy: Advancing towards Huyevo, Oleshnia; expanding control zone (WarGonzo/Rybar). Attacking near Basivka (Rybar).
Orikhiv: Expanded control zone near Lobkove, Shcherbaky (Rybar). Activated front near Kamyanske, pushing UA across water barrier (Rybar).
Lyman: Captured strongpoints on Lozova-Veselyi Hai line; near Novoliubivka (Rybar); Pushed UA from Nevske/Novoliubivka, fighting towards Makiivka (Voenkor Kotenok). Attacks W of Balka Zhuravka (Rybar).
Kupyansk: Occupied positions N of Dvorichna on W bank of Oskil (Slyvochnyi Kapriz); After Krasne Pershe, fighting in Kamianka, fighting for Figolivka, NE Kondrashivka / SE Mala Shapkivka (Voenkor Kotenok).
VI. Civilian Impact & Significant Incidents (Ukraine)
Kharkiv City & Oblast (Night Apr 3/4 Drone Attack & Past 24h - Kharkiv PGO/OVA/DSNS/Operativnyi ZSU):
Kharkiv City (Novobavarskyi Dist.): Updated casualty count: 5 KIA (including 88yo man who died in hospital), 32 WIA. Impacts hit residential buildings (multi-story and private homes), shops, trade pavilions, cafes, cars. Significant damage to infrastructure. Emergency services continue response.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro City - Morning Apr 4): Explosion damaged a car belonging to the Head of the Livoberezhna city administration, Yuriy Fedko. Fedko and his wife reportedly injured (Operativnyi ZSU/STERNENKO citing Police/Suspilne). Investigation ongoing.
Other Impacted Areas: Russian shelling and drone strikes reported affecting civilian populations and infrastructure in frontline areas of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts (Southern Def Forces).
