Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 4, 2025, 01:27 UTC
(Derived from intelligence reports dated Apr 1 - Apr 4, including ISW reporting as of Apr 2, Ukrainian General Staff reports up to Apr 3 19:00 UTC, UA Air Force updates up to Apr 4 01:13 UTC, DeepState reports up to Apr 3 15:39 UTC, NATO assessments/claims reported Apr 3, supplementary claims/reports up to Apr 4 01:13 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. Previous Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) report indicated 111 combat engagements on Apr 3. Active Russian tactical aviation and Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches continue, particularly towards Sumy, Donetsk, and eastern frontline oblasts.
Primary Russian Offensive Axes:Pokrovsk (previously reported highest intensity) and Toretsk remain the focal points for Russian ground assaults.
Secondary Axes of Intense Fighting: Significant combat activity persisted on the Lyman, Novopavlivsk, Orikhiv, Kursk border, Kupyansk, Siversk, Kharkiv border, Kramatorsk/Chasiv Yar, and Prydniprovsky directions according to earlier reports.
Ukrainian Operations in Russian Territory (Kursk/Belgorod/Bryansk/Other):
Kursk/Belgorod Border: Operations ongoing. UGS previously reported repelling Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast. Russian forces maintain air/artillery strikes in the area. Russian sources continue to claim significant Ukrainian losses and promote narratives of Ukrainian forces offering evacuation to residents (e.g., Sudzha). Civilian evacuations in Belgorod Oblast previously reported due to drone activity.
Bryansk Oblast (RU Claim): Governor Bogomaz claims a Ukrainian drone attack targeted civilians in Belaia Berezka (Trubchevsky district), resulting in 1 civilian killed and 2 civilians wounded, along with damage to property (Apr 4, 00:19 UTC).
Previous Activity: Attacks repelled in Moscow area (RU Claim); threat level downgraded in Lipetsk Oblast. Restrictions lifted at Moscow airports (Vnukovo, Domodedovo, Zhukovsky) as of Apr 4, 01:12 UTC (Rosaviatsiya).
Territorial Control Changes (Summary - Based on reports up to Apr 3):
Ukrainian Advance: Confirmed near Pokrovsk (ISW, Apr 2). Claimed liberation of Nadiia (Luhansk, near Svatove) by 3rd Assault Brigade (Apr 3, verification pending).
Russian Advances Claimed/Geolocated: Multiple claims persisted across axes, notably near Oleksiivka (Pokrovsk), Bohatyr/Razdolne (Novopavlivsk), Novoliubivka (Lyman), Huyevo (Kursk), Mala Shapovka/Kondrashivka (Kupyansk), Mali Shcherbaky/Kamyanske (Orikhiv). Geolocated RU advance W of Zherebets River (Lyman) and along Mokri Yaly river (Novopavlivsk).
Eastern Direction: Active Russian tactical aviation poses a threat of air strikes to frontline oblasts (UA Air Force, 00:38 UTC). Confirmed KABs launched towards Donetsk Oblast (UA Air Force, 01:11 UTC). Threat persists.
Sumy Oblast: Active Russian tactical aviation on the northeastern direction. Repeat KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast confirmed (UA Air Force, 01:13 UTC). Threat persists.
Recent Concluded Events:
Kharkiv City & Oblast: Shahed drone wave previously reported heading towards Kupyansk (after bypassing Kharkiv city) reported neutralized/concluded (Nikolaevskiy Vanyok, 00:17 UTC). This followed earlier intense attacks causing 3 KIA, 32 WIA in Kharkiv city. Further details emerged from Apr 2 strike: 5 injured, including a child; significant residential damage reported in March doubling previous levels.
Kryvyi Rih (Apr 2): Confirmed Russian ballistic missile strike hit civilian infrastructure, resulting in 3 KIA, 3 WIA, and residential damage.
Zaporizhzhia City & Oblast: Previous attack concluded, 1 civilian WIA.
Dnipro City & Oblast: Previous attack concluded, 3 civilians WIA.
Air Defense: Previously engaged Shahed drones over multiple oblasts. KAB/air strike threat persists, especially in frontline areas (Sumy, Donetsk, Eastern Oblasts).
RU Claim (UAV Intercepted): RU source (Voin DV) claims destruction of a Ukrainian SHARK reconnaissance UAV on an unspecified section of the Line of Battle Sight (LBS) using video evidence (Apr 4, 00:00 UTC). RU MoD previously claimed intercepting numerous UA UAVs, 1 JDAM, and 3 HIMARS rockets (Apr 3). Note: Effectiveness of RU drone interdiction varies; UA drones reportedly significantly impacted RU logistics on the Pokrovsk southern flank (Apr 2 reports).
NATO assessment (via Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 3) suggested RU recruitment covers losses but advances are slow; RU aims to push UA from Kursk Oblast; approx. 70k RU + 11k NK troops present in Kursk (verification required).
UGS previously claimed inflicting heavy RU losses on Pokrovsk axis. Persistent RU logistical challenges reported on Pokrovsk southern flank due to UA drone interdiction (Apr 2). Use of non-standard vehicles (RKhM-4, motorcycles) noted (Apr 2).
High-Level Political Developments / Information Warfare:
Russia-Slovakia Contact (Planned): Putin and Slovak PM Fico expected meeting during Moscow Victory Day events (RU Ambassador claim, Apr 3).
Allied Support: South Korea announced $100M aid (Apr 3). NATO allies committed >€20B military aid in Q1 2025 (Rutte, Apr 2). Czech Republic plans >€100M for UA hospital investment (Apr 2).
Information Warfare:
RU Narrative (UN): Maxim Grigoriev presented materials at a UN Security Council Arria-formula meeting alleging Ukrainian war crimes (killings, destruction) in Kursk Oblast and other areas, accusing Ukraine of falsification and deliberately killing civilians for propaganda (Colonelcassad, Apr 4, 00:02 UTC).
RU Narrative (Kursk): TASS promotes video interviewing an alleged Sudzha resident claiming Ukrainian forces offered evacuation routes potentially via Belarus (Apr 4, 00:36 UTC). Consistent with efforts to portray Ukrainian actions in Kursk negatively.
Previous RU narratives focused on framing UA energy strikes negatively, justifying Belgorod evacuations, and various battlefield claims.
II. Ground Combat Operations & Territorial Changes (Selected Axes - Based on UGS Report Apr 3, 19:00 UTC & Supplementary Claims up to Apr 4, 01:27 UTC)
Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity): Previous report: 37 RU attacks initiated (Apr 3); 2 ongoing. Attacks near multiple settlements. UGS previously claimed inflicting heavy RU losses. RU sources previously claimed mechanized attacks towards Oleksiivka. Reports from Apr 2 indicated effective Ukrainian drone interdiction significantly hampered Russian logistics on the southern flank of this axis.
Lyman Axis: Previous report: 17 RU attacks initiated (Apr 3); 2 ongoing. Attacks near Hrekivka, Nove, Katerynivka. RU claims/geolocation previously showed advances W of Zherebets River near Novoliubivka. (UA 3rd Assault Bde claim of liberating Nadiia, if confirmed, is near this axis). RU previously claimed destroying UA APC west of Nadiia.
Toretsk Axis: Previous report: 16 RU attacks initiated (Apr 3). Attacks near Dachne, Druzhba, Dyliivka, Toretsk, Leonidivka. Oleksandropil confirmed captured by RU forces (Apr 3). RU claimed advances W of Oleksandropil. UA 12th Azov Brigade reported repelling major RU assault (Apr 3). RU claimed successful artillery strikes in Dyliivka (Apr 3). Reports from Apr 2 indicated 21 attacks with ongoing clashes.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Previous report: 8 RU attacks initiated (Apr 3); 3 ongoing. Attacks near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamyanske. Lobkove confirmed captured by RU forces (Apr 3). RU forces pushing towards Kamyanske, claimed advances SE and E of Kamyanske (Apr 3).
RU CLAIM: Russian sources (Colonelcassad/Lost Armour) claim destruction of a Ukrainian BMP-2 near Kamyanske using a fiber-optic FPV drone ("KVN"), providing video evidence (Apr 4, 00:59 UTC).
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis: Previous report: 7 RU attacks initiated (Apr 3); 3 ongoing. Attempts towards Rozlyv, Kostiantynopil. Vesele & Razliv confirmed captured by RU forces (Apr 3). Geolocated RU advance >1.5 km along Mokri Yaly river. RU claimed advances near Bohatyr, Rozdolne (Apr 3) and south of Rozlyv (Apr 2). UA Presidential Bde & 31st Mech Bde reported repelling RU armored assault (Apr 2).
Kursk Border Area / Sumy Oblast: Previous report: 7 RU attacks repelled, 2 ongoing in Kursk Oblast (UGS 19:00 Apr 3). Reports from Apr 2 indicated 13 attacks repelled, 4 ongoing (UGS 16:00 UTC Apr 2). Positional fighting near Sudzha. RU previously claimed control of central Huyevo. Heavy fighting near Demidovka/Popovka (Belgorod border). RU MoD previously claimed significant UA losses. Civilian evacuations reported in Belgorod Oblast. Russian sources continue information operations regarding this area. Ongoing RU KAB threat (see Section III).
Kupyansk Axis: Previous report: 5 RU attacks initiated (Apr 3); 2 ongoing. Attacks near Zahryzove, Petropavlivka. RU previously claimed advances and entering Mala Shapovka/Kondrashivka. Threat from Shahed drones reported neutralized/concluded (Apr 4, 00:17 UTC).
Kramatorsk/Chasiv Yar Axis: Previous report: 1 RU assault repelled towards Predtechyne (UGS 19:00 Apr 3). Reports from Apr 2 indicated 6 RU attacks repelled near Chasiv Yar and towards other settlements. Major RU mechanized assault near Andriivka repelled earlier (morning Apr 3). RU claimed destroying UA T-80BV tank near Chasiv Yar (Apr 3) and UA APC within Chasiv Yar (Apr 2). Observation of RU using rare RKhM-4 vehicle potentially indicated equipment adaptation/shortages (Apr 2).
Kharkiv Axis/Border: Previous report: 3 RU attacks repelled near Kamyanka and Vovchansk (UGS 19:00 Apr 3). Heavy fighting, increased RU air attacks previously reported.
Huliaipole Axis: No RU ground attacks reported in latest UGS update. Previous UGS report (Apr 2, 16:00 UTC) indicated 5 attacks repelled. RU air strikes reported (UGS 19:00 Apr 3).
III. Air, Missile & Drone Activity
Current Air Threats (Apr 4, 01:27 UTC):
Eastern Direction:ONGOING THREAT. Active Russian tactical aviation poses a threat of air strikes to frontline oblasts (UA Air Force, 00:38 UTC). KABs confirmed launched towards Donetsk Oblast (UA Air Force, 01:11 UTC).
Sumy Oblast:ONGOING THREAT. Russian tactical aviation active in the northeast. Repeat KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast confirmed (UA Air Force, 01:13 UTC).
Recent Concluded Air Alerts/Events:
Shahed alerts for Kharkiv/Kupyansk direction ended (Nikolaevskiy Vanyok, 00:17 UTC).
Previous alerts/attacks concluded for Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Kyiv Oblasts.
Ukrainian Drone Activity (RU Territory):
Bryansk Oblast (RU Claim): Governor claims UA drone attack caused 1 civilian KIA, 2 WIA in Belaia Berezka (Apr 4, 00:19 UTC).
UAV Downed (RU Claim): RU forces (Voin DV) claim destroying a UA SHARK reconnaissance UAV on the LBS, providing video evidence (Apr 4, 00:00 UTC).
BMP-2 Destruction Claim (Orikhiv Axis): RU sources (Colonelcassad/Lost Armour) claim destruction of a Ukrainian BMP-2 near Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia) using a fiber-optic FPV drone, providing video (Apr 4, 00:59 UTC).
Kharkiv (Apr 2 Strike): Casualties updated to 5 injured from drone strike on residential building.
