Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 3, 2025, 23:57 UTC
(Derived from intelligence reports dated Apr 1 - Apr 3, including ISW reporting as of Apr 2, Ukrainian General Staff reports up to Apr 3 19:00 UTC, UA Air Force updates up to Apr 3 23:20 UTC, DeepState reports up to Apr 3 15:39 UTC, NATO assessments/claims reported Apr 3, supplementary claims/reports up to Apr 3 23:57 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 111 combat engagements since the start of Apr 3 (as of 19:00 UTC).
Primary Russian Offensive Axes:Pokrovsk (highest intensity with 37 attacks reported earlier) and Toretsk (16 attacks reported earlier) remain the main focus of Russian ground assaults.
Ukrainian Operations in Russian Territory (Kursk/Belgorod/Other):
Kursk/Belgorod Border: Operations continue. UGS reported 7 RU attacks repelled, 2 ongoing in Kursk Oblast earlier (Apr 3, 19:00 UTC). Russian forces conducted 10 air strikes (17 KABs) and 334 artillery attacks in the area earlier.
RU MoD Claims (Apr 3): Claimed neutralizing AFU formations in Kursk region, inflicting over 180 personnel losses, destroying 1 IFV, 2 AFVs, 11 vehicles, 2 mortars, 5 UAV command posts, and 1 ammunition depot over the past day.
RU Reports (Belgorod): Reports from Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Belgorod Oblast) indicate civilian evacuations initiated around March 18-19 due to significantly increased Ukrainian FPV drone activity ("dirty" skies), making the border zone hazardous. Local RU militia ("Bars-Belgorod," "Orlan") involved in evacuations using armored vehicles (Colonelcassad, Apr 3). RU sources continue crowdfunding for drones for forces in the Belgorod sector (Dnevnik Desantnika, Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Apr 3).
President Zelenskyy emphasized the strategic importance of the Kursk operation for protecting Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, confirming reports received on combat progress, North Korean unit tactics, and drone developments. Specific units thanked: 36th Marine Brigade, 82nd Air Assault Brigade. He stated it was "absolutely fair to bring the war back to where it came from."
Moscow Area:Attack Repelled (RU Claim). Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claimed air defense intercepted a UAV heading towards the capital earlier (Apr 3, 21:35 UTC). Temporary flight restrictions lifted at Vnukovo Airport (TASS, 22:14 UTC); restrictions had previously been implemented at Vnukovo, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky Airports due to reported Ukrainian UAV threats (TASS, ASTRA, RVvoenkor, Rosaviatsia, 21:11-21:38 UTC).
Lipetsk Oblast:Attack Concluded. Threat level downgraded from Red ("Threat of attack") to Yellow ("Air Danger") (Governor Artamonov, 23:36 UTC). Earlier, air defense and suppression systems were active, and debris assessment was underway following AD engagement.
Krasnodar Krai Direction: 3 Ukrainian UAVs reported flying over Priazovsk towards Krasnodar Krai earlier (RU source claim, 21:02 UTC). Status unknown.
RU MoD Claim (Kursk UAVs): RU MoD claimed 17 Ukrainian UAVs downed over Kursk Oblast within one hour earlier (evening Apr 3); claim reiterated by RU sources.
Territorial Control Changes (Summary - See Section II for details):
Ukrainian Advance: Confirmed near Pokrovsk (ISW, Apr 2). Claimed liberation of Nadiia (Luhansk, near Svatove) by 3rd Assault Brigade (Apr 3, verification pending).
Russian Advances Claimed/Geolocated: Multiple claims persist across axes, notably RU sources claiming advances near Oleksiivka (Pokrovsk), Bohatyr/Razdolne (Novopavlivsk), Novoliubivka (Lyman), Huyevo (Kursk), Mala Shapovka/Kondrashivka (Kupyansk), Mali Shcherbaky (Orikhiv). Geolocated RU advance W of Zherebets River (Lyman) and along Mokri Yaly river (Novopavlivsk). RU sources claim advance near Kamyanske (Orikhiv Axis), storming positions SE and E of the settlement (RVvoenkor, Apr 3). RU CLAIM: Destruction of Ukrainian T-80BV tank near Chasiv Yar (Voin DV, Apr 3, 22:00 UTC).
RU Destruction Claim near Nadiia: RU sources claim destruction of a Ukrainian YPR-765 APC west of Nadiia (Luhansk) via FPV drone (Colonelcassad, Apr 3).
Russian Air & Drone Strikes:
UGS reported 1 missile, 68 air strikes (121 KABs), and 753 kamikaze drone attacks by Russian forces since the start of Apr 3 (as of 19:00 UTC). ~4000 artillery/mortar attacks reported.
Kharkiv City & Oblast:ONGOING DRONE THREAT. Following intense Shahed drone attacks earlier causing significant casualties (3 KIA, 32 WIA), a new wave of drones was launched from Belgorod Oblast.
Current Status (23:48 UTC):4 Shahed drones bypassed Kharkiv city and flew past Chuhuiv, now heading towards Kupyansk. No immediate threat to Kharkiv city. Ukrainian air defense remains active engaging remaining drones (Nikolaevskiy Vanyok). Earlier (23:11-23:20 UTC), at least 6 drones were reported heading towards Kharkiv city, causing explosions.
Previous Attack Summary (Evening Apr 3): Confirmed hits on residential buildings (private house, multi-story apartment buildings) and administrative building in Novobavarskyi district, causing large fires (4 separate locations, total area >600 sq m). Casualties: 3 Civilians KIA (fragments of 3rd body found), 32 Injured (including 2 children). Search and rescue ongoing earlier, potentially more people under rubble (Kharkiv OVA/Mayor/Tsaplienko/RBC-Ukr/DSNS). Visual confirmation of widespread damage released by DSNS & OVA. Additional Shahed strike reported earlier in Ruski Tyshky (Kharkiv Oblast), injuring 1 civilian (50 y.o. male). RU sources previously claimed a "massive" strike (>15 impacts) targeted industrial enterprises KHAZ, FED, and Kommunar near Zhuravlivskyi descent/Gorky Park (Colonelcassad, Apr 3). Kharkiv OVA confirms this is the third consecutive night of mass attacks.
Zaporizhzhia City & Oblast:Air Alert Ended (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 23:48 UTC). Earlier attack (at least 7 Shaheds) caused damage (warehouse fire, non-residential building) and resulted in 1 civilian (63 y.o. male) injured. Visual confirmation of damage to civilian infrastructure (bus, shops, buildings) released by OVA.
Dnipro City & Oblast: A new explosion was heard in Dnipro city (Suspilne via RBC-Ukr, 23:06 UTC) after earlier reports indicated the mass Shahed attack was concluding. Cause/details unclear.
Kyiv Oblast (Brovary District): Earlier attack concluded. Impact from falling drone debris confirmed:1 civilian (male) injured (leg/neck trauma), hospitalized. Fires ignited at a parking lot (4 trucks, 1 car damaged, extinguished) and an auto salon building (5 cars damaged, extinguished).
Donetsk Oblast:KABs launched by Russian tactical aviation earlier (UA Air Force, 20:56 UTC). Drone threat near Sloviansk/Druzhkivka/Dobropillya reported earlier appears diminished.
Sumy / Chernihiv Oblast: Shahed UAV threat persisted in SE Sumy Oblast earlier. Current status unclear. Missile threat towards Chernihiv Oblast from Sumy reported earlier; status unclear.
Other RU Strike Claims (Apr 3): RU sources claim successful drone strikes on industrial zones in Dnipropetrovsk and Pavlohrad cities. Claimed strike on a drone assembly workshop in Kryvyi Rih (eastern outskirts) with secondary detonation reported (Colonelcassad, Apr 3). RU FPV drone strike claimed against UA soldiers (Colonelcassad, Apr 3). RU CLAIM: Ukrainian FPV drone struck RU drone operator team, operators survived (Colonelcassad, Apr 3, 22:02 UTC). RU CLAIM (Colonelcassad, Apr 3, 23:02 UTC): RU 238th Artillery Bde (8th CAA) & 132nd Bde (51st CAA) claim successful artillery strikes (Msta-B, M46) destroying UA UAV control points and transport vehicles in Dyliivka (Toretsk axis / Konstantynivka direction).
Ukrainian Drone Activity / Air Defense:
Air Defense Active: Confirmed engagement of Shahed drones over Kyiv/Kyiv Oblast (concluded, debris caused damage/injury in Brovary), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (concluded, though new explosion reported), ongoing in Kharkiv Oblast (new wave of drones moving towards Kupyansk). Activity status unclear for Sumy.
RU MoD Claims (Apr 3): Claimed interception of 1 JDAM bomb, 3 HIMARS projectiles, and 138 Ukrainian UAVs over the past day.
Russian Force Assessment & Logistics (NATO/UA Claims):
(NATO via Operativnyi ZSU - Apr 3): Russia reportedly recruiting sufficiently to cover high daily losses (~1000 KIA/WIA); RU advances slow but accepted代价; no ceasefire signs seen; NATO predicts RU will push UA forces from Kursk Oblast. Claim: UA lost 90% of captured Kursk territory. Claim: Approx. 70k RU + 11k North Korean troops present in Kursk Oblast; NK losses claimed at 5k (1.5k KIA). RU negotiation stance unchanged, believes time is advantageous. (These claims require independent verification).
(Logistics Needs): Persistent RU reliance on crowdfunding/volunteers for vehicles, radios (Azart batteries), drones noted (Dnevnik Desantnika appeal for Belgorod sector, Apr 3).
High-Level Political Developments / Information Warfare:
US-Russia Contact (Confirmed/Claims): RDIF Head Kirill Dmitriev confirmed meetings with "key members of the US administration" (TASS, Apr 3). RU CLAIM (Dmitriev via TASS/RVvoenkor): Claimed "significant progress" reached on a ceasefire agreement for Ukraine during talks with Trump administration representatives. Claimed US companies ready to replace departed European ones in Russia, discussions on resuming direct flights ongoing, and Trump admin "hears RU position" respectfully. (These claims require independent verification and are assessed with high caution). Stated RU economy coping well with sanctions, Moscow not asking for their removal (TASS, 22:06 UTC). Denied reports of potential Russian invasion of Europe as "false and delusional narrative" (TASS, 22:21 UTC). Claimed US companies lost ~$300bn potential profit by leaving Russia (TASS, 22:15 UTC). Claimed positive RU-US economic interaction became possible under Trump administration (TASS, 22:30 UTC).
US Statements (Trump - Reported via TASS/RBC-Ukr/RVvoenkor): Former US President Trump reportedly expressed confidence US would achieve success interacting with Russia on Ukraine, and stated his opinion that both President Putin and President Zelenskyy are ready for a deal (Apr 3, 21:21-21:26 UTC; RVvoenkor 22:20 UTC). Claimed speaking to Zelenskyy, who is "ready to make a deal." (Assess with caution, context and source bias considered).
Russia-Slovakia Contact (Planned): Russian Ambassador to Slovakia stated Vladimir Putin and Slovak PM Robert Fico are expected to meet during Victory Day events in Moscow (TASS, 23:30 UTC).
Allied Support:South Korea announced $100M aid package (Apr 3).
Information Warfare: US government reportedly shut down satellite transmitting Radio Liberty to Russia (ASTRA/RU sources, Apr 3). Ukrainians warned of Telegram scam using fake video messages asking for money (RBC-Ukr, Apr 3). RU promoting "Drone-Con" event (Apr 11-13) focused on military drone applications. RU MoD (Apr 3) frames UA strikes on RU energy infrastructure as proof Kyiv cannot comply with agreements. RU source (Colonelcassad) shared video claiming FPV strike on UA soldiers (Apr 3). RU sources emphasize Belgorod evacuations due to UA actions (Apr 3). RU sources promoting narrative about alleged US soldier deaths in Lithuania being Russia's fault (Alex Parker Returns, Apr 3). RU sources promoting video claiming successful FPV strike on RU drone team by UA forces (Colonelcassad, 22:02 UTC). RU INFO OPS: Video released claiming artillery destruction of UA drone control points and transport in Dyliivka (Colonelcassad, 23:02 UTC). Russian police warning about scams involving renting WhatsApp accounts for fraudulent call centers (23:22 UTC).
II. Ground Combat Operations & Territorial Changes (Selected Axes - UGS Report 19:00 UTC & Supplementary Claims)
Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity):37 RU attacks initiated since start of Apr 3 (UGS, 19:00); 2 ongoing. Attacks reported near Novokalynove, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Preobrazhenka, Sribne, Novoserhiivka, Nadiivka, Uspenivka, Andriivka; and towards Romanivka, Oleksiivka, Oleksandropil.
RU sources claim mechanized attack towards Oleksiivka faced UA artillery, outcome unclear; probing near Tarasivka.
Lyman Axis:17 RU attacks near Hrekivka, Nove, Katerynivka, and towards Novomykhailivka, Zelena Dolyna (UGS, 19:00); 2 ongoing. RU claims advances from Ivanivka towards Nove; geolocated expanded bridgehead W of Zherebets River near Novoliubivka. (UA 3rd Assault Bde claim of liberating Nadiia, if confirmed, is near this axis).RU Claim: Destruction of UA YPR-765 APC west of Nadiia (Colonelcassad, Apr 3).
Toretsk Axis:16 RU attacks near Dachne, Druzhba, Dyliivka, Toretsk, Leonidivka (UGS, 19:00). Oleksandropil captured by RU forces (Confirmed Apr 3). RU claims advances W of Oleksandropil towards Valentynivka.
UA Success (Reported Apr 3):12th Azov Special Purpose Brigade reported repelling a significant Russian assault involving motorcycles, Chinese-made buggies, and BTRs. Combined arms defense (infantry, drones, tanks) reportedly destroyed attacking forces on approach, preventing consolidation in built-up areas (Tsaplienko, Operativnyi ZSU, 20:37 UTC).
RU CLAIM (Colonelcassad, 23:02 UTC): RU forces (238th Arty Bde, 132nd Bde) claim successful artillery strikes destroying UA UAV control points and transport vehicles in Dyliivka.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):8 RU attacks near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamyanske (UGS, 19:00); 3 ongoing. Lobkove captured by RU forces (Confirmed Apr 3, reiterated by RU MoD Apr 3). RU forces pushing towards Kamyanske. RU claims capture of UA dugout near Mali Shcherbaky. RU Claim: Advance near Kamyanske, storming large UA strongpoint SE of Kamyanske and several positions E of the settlement (RVvoenkor, Apr 3).
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis:7 RU attacks initiated, attempting to advance towards Rozlyv and Kostiantynopil (UGS, 19:00); 3 ongoing. Vesele & Razliv captured by RU forces (Confirmed Apr 3, Vesele reiterated by RU MoD Apr 3). RU claims advance W of Vesele. Geolocated RU advance >1.5 km along Mokri Yaly river. RU claims advances near Bohatyr, Rozdolne, N of Burlatske. RU probing from Rozlyv towards Bohatyr.
Kursk Border Area / Sumy Oblast:7 RU attacks repelled by UA forces in Kursk Oblast, 2 ongoing (UGS 19:00). Positional fighting near Sudzha. RU claims control central Huyevo, advanced ~500m. Heavy fighting near Demidovka/Popovka (Belgorod border).
RU MoD Claim (Apr 3): Inflicted >180 UA losses, destroyed 1 IFV, 2 AFVs, 11 vehicles, 2 mortars, 5 UAV C2 posts, 1 ammo depot in Kursk operations.
RU Reports (Belgorod): Civilian evacuations ongoing in Krasnoyaruzhsky district due to intense UA drone activity. RU volunteer units assisting (Colonelcassad, Apr 3).
(NATO claims via UA source suggest significant RU force concentration and potential intent to displace UA forces from the oblast - verification needed).
Kupyansk Axis:5 RU attacks near Zahryzove, Petropavlivka, and towards Nova Kruhliakivka (UGS, 19:00); 2 ongoing. RU claims advances near Krasne Pershe, Kamyanka, Topoli; towards Kondrashivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Zahryzove. RU claim entered Mala Shapovka, fighting in NE Kondrashivka. Potential for increased drone activity as Shaheds reported heading towards this direction (23:48 UTC).
Kramatorsk/Chasiv Yar Axis:1 RU assault repelled towards Predtechyne (UGS, 19:00). RU claims strike destroyed UA tank in Molocharka near Kostiantynivka (9km from LBS). Major RU mechanized assault near Andriivka repelled earlier (morning Apr 3). RU CLAIM: Drone operators destroyed a Ukrainian T-80BV tank near Chasiv Yar (Voin DV, Apr 3, 22:00 UTC).
Kharkiv Axis/Border:3 RU attacks repelled near Kamyanka and Vovchansk (UGS, 19:00). Heavy fighting reported. Increased density of RU air attacks confirmed. RU Lt. surrendered with remnants near Lyptsi earlier (Apr 3).
Siversk Axis:3 RU attacks repelled near Verkhnokamyanske and towards Ivano-Dariivka, Vyimka (UGS, 19:00).
Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson):2 RU attempts to approach UA positions repelled (UGS, 19:00).
Huliaipole Axis: No RU ground attacks reported. RU conducted air strikes with NAR (Novopil, Malynivka) and KABs (Komyshuvakha) (UGS, 19:00).
(General RU Claim): Colonelcassad shared FPV drone footage claiming strike on UA soldiers (Apr 3). RU sources shared video claiming UA FPV strike hit RU drone operators (who survived) (Colonelcassad, 22:02 UTC).
III. Air, Missile & Drone Activity
Current Air Threats (Apr 3, 23:57 UTC):
Kharkiv Oblast (Kupyansk Direction):ONGOING THREAT.4 Shahed drones reported heading towards Kupyansk after bypassing Kharkiv city and Chuhuiv (Nikolaevskiy Vanyok, 23:48 UTC). Ukrainian air defense remains active. The immediate threat to Kharkiv city is currently diminished.
Dnipro City & Oblast: Status unclear following earlier report of a new explosion (23:06 UTC) after the main Shahed attack wave seemed to conclude. Previous attack resulted in 3 civilians WIA.
Sumy Oblast: Shahed UAV threat persisted in SE Sumy Oblast earlier (UA Air Force, 22:17 UTC). Current status unclear.
Air Alerts Concluded:
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Alert ended 23:48 UTC.
Kyiv Oblast: Attack concluded earlier. Debris impact in Brovary district resulted in 1 civilian WIA and property damage.
Lipetsk Oblast: Threat level downgraded from Red to Yellow; immediate attack threat passed (23:36 UTC).
Krasnodar Krai Direction: 3 UAVs reported heading towards the region earlier. Status unknown.
Confirmed Impacts (Apr 3 Evening/Night):
Kharkiv (Earlier Attack): Hits on residential buildings, administrative building (Novobavarskyi district), 3 KIA, 32 WIA (incl. 2 children), >30 buildings damaged, large fires (>600 sq m), search ongoing earlier (Kharkiv OVA/Mayor/RBC-Ukr/DSNS). Strike on Ruski Tyshky (1 WIA). Visuals released document widespread damage.
Dnipro City (Earlier Attack): Fires impacting a house and administrative buildings, 3 civilians WIA (1 hospitalized moderate condition, 2 treated on-site) (Lysak, 22:44 UTC). Status of new explosion (23:06 UTC) impact unclear.
Kyiv Oblast (Brovary): Falling drone debris caused 1 civilian WIA (leg/neck, hospitalized), fires at parking lot (4 trucks, 1 car damaged) & auto salon (building fire, 5 cars damaged). Fires extinguished (Tsaplienko/RBC-Ukr/Kyiv OVA, 22:43 UTC).
