Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 3, 2025, 15:57 UTC
(Derived from intelligence reports dated Mar 30 - Apr 3, including ISW reporting as of Apr 2, Ukrainian General Staff reports up to Apr 3 16:00 UTC, UA Air Force updates up to Apr 3 15:50 UTC, DeepState reports up to Apr 3 15:39 UTC, supplementary claims/reports up to Apr 3 15:57 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 62 combat engagements since the start of Apr 3 (as of 16:00 UTC), following 216 engagements reported over the previous 24 hours.
Primary Russian Offensive Axes:Pokrovsk (highest intensity) and Toretsk remain the main focus of Russian ground assaults.
Secondary Axes of Intense Fighting: Significant combat activity persists on the Lyman, Novopavlivsk, Orikhiv, Kursk border, Kramatorsk/Chasiv Yar, Kupyansk, and Siversk directions.
Russian Force Generation & Posture Assessment (NATO - Apr 3): SACEUR Cavoli assessed Russia is increasing its armed forces' numbers and replacing combat equipment/ammunition faster than previously estimated. The spring conscription drive targets 160,000 personnel. Cavoli also noted Russia continues restoring non-nuclear forces, possesses a higher level of combat readiness, and benefits from its geographic position.
Potential Russian Offensive Preparations (UA OPO - Apr 3): Deputy Head of Presidential Office Palisa noted signs of RU preparations for intensified combat operations on several axes, expecting increased pressure but doubting RU capability for operational breakthroughs or a "domino effect" collapse of the front, despite the ongoing 150,000-strong conscription drive.
Territorial Control Changes (Recent Confirmations/Claims):
Ukrainian Advance: Confirmed near Pokrovsk (ISW, Apr 2).
Russian Advances Claimed/Geolocated: West of Andriivka (S of Kurakhove), along Mokri Yaly river (>1.5km, Novopavlivsk Axis), W of Zherebets River near Novoliubivka (2.5km bridgehead, Lyman Axis), near Preobrazhenka/Kotlyarivka/Troitske (Pokrovsk), W of Oleksandropil/in Toretsk urban area, near Vilne Pole/Bohatyr (Novopavlivsk), North of Burlatske (700m) (Novopavlivsk), towards Kamyanske (Orikhiv), in Chasiv Yar urban area, in Kursk/Sumy border areas (Huyevo, Oleshnia, Hornal).
Political/Diplomatic Context:
Ceasefire Outlook (Zelenskyy, Apr 3): A ceasefire could potentially be achieved in the coming weeks or months, emphasizing the need for pressure on Russia. Ongoing US-RU discussions noted. Ukraine maintains its red line against recognizing occupied territories as Russian but suggests a potential diplomatic path for the return of some territories over time.
Potential Foreign Troop Presence (UA OPO - Apr 3): Dep Head Palisa stated the presence of foreign military contingents is necessary for security guarantees, suggesting >10 countries could participate and coordination on mandate/actions is underway.
Russian Stance (Reported, Apr 1-3): Russia rejected US proposals, demanding NATO non-accession, army reduction, annexation recognition. Reportedly views potential Trump presidency favorably but prepared for continued conflict.
Allied Support (Recent):
NATO: SecGen Rutte affirmed support for Ukraine to fight "as long as necessary" (Apr 3). Discussions on using NATO command structures for potential force deployment ongoing.
Denmark: €900M aid package for 2025-2027 approved (Apr 3).
Germany: €130M package provided (Apr 1).
Lithuania: 6 Air Defense systems delivered (Apr 1).
Latvia: Sending 1500 UAVs.
Poland: Facilitated delivery of 5,000 Starlink terminals (Apr 3). Total Polish Starlink contribution now 29,500 units.
G5+ EU FMs (Mar 31): Pledged to double aid, consider new sanctions, reject peace limiting UA military capabilities or partner presence.
US Tariffs: Ukrainian officials (Getmantsev) acknowledged the new 10% US base tariff is not critical overall (US ~1% of UA export, $869M) but will be painful/critical for metallurgy (72.6% of UA pig iron exports to US) and pipe producers ($113M). Concerns raised about potential "catastrophic" impact if EU were to implement similar reciprocal tariffs, given the EU accounts for ~60% of UA exports ($24.7B). US stated Russia was excluded due to existing sanctions effectiveness, a claim disputed by French/US media citing ongoing ~$3.5B US-RU trade.
Zelenskyy Visit to Yahidne (Apr 3): President visited the Chernihiv Oblast village school basement where Russian forces detained ~370 civilians (incl. 69 children) for nearly a month in March 2022, highlighting alleged war crimes.
Russia-Africa Relations: Russia agreed to provide arms and training to joint forces of military juntas in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso (Apr 3). Burkina Faso President accepted invitation to Moscow Victory Day parade (Apr 3).
Logistical Notes: High demand for FPV drones highlighted by UA volunteer report requesting 3,370 units for 95 units (Apr 3). Russian forces show reliance on volunteer groups for vehicles (UAZ, Mitsubishi Delica) and equipment (EW, drones, radios) on South Donetsk axis (Apr 3). Evidence of RU adapting T-80 tanks and BTR-60PB with anti-drone cages (Apr 3).
II. Ground Combat Operations & Territorial Changes
Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity):22 RU attacks initiated since start of Apr 3; 10 ongoing (UGS 16:00). Ukrainian Combined Rifle Bde + Marines claimed halting RU armored assault, destroying 2 RU tanks with FPVs (Apr 3). Flying Skull unit claimed 8 RU personnel eliminated via FPV drone during assaults (Apr 3). Khartia Brigade claims inflicting 41 RU KIA via drone drops and FPV strikes over 24h, preventing RU assault formations (Apr 3). Russian claims of advances W of Andriivka, near Preobrazhenka, Kotlyarivka, Troitske persist.
Toretsk Axis (Significant RU Focus):13 RU attacks since start of Apr 3; 4 ongoing (UGS 16:00). Oleksandropil captured by RU forces (Confirmed Apr 3). RU forces occupied Panteleimonivka (Confirmed Mar 31/Apr 3). RU claims advances W of Oleksandropil, towards Valentynivka, and expanded control in Toretsk urban area. DeepState highlighted difficult conditions for UA forces near Toretsk mine (Mar 31).
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis:4 RU attacks initiated near Rozlyv, Kostiantynopil; fighting ongoing (UGS 16:00). Vesele captured by RU forces (RU MoD Confirmed Apr 3). Geolocated RU advance >1.5 km along Mokri Yaly river (Apr 3). RU CLAIM (Apr 3): Advance of 700m North of Burlatske into treeline. Continued fierce fighting on eastern edge of Vilne Pole. RU claims UA UAV control post destroyed in Shevchenko. RU claims entry into S. outskirts Fedorivka, advancing towards Bohatyr, W of Vesele, near Vilne Pole/Burlatske (100-500m), near Bohatyr (1km). RU MoD claims Tor SAM systems actively defending units here (Apr 3). UA TG "Vuhledar" reported repelling 226 RU attacks and inflicting heavy losses in the week prior to Mar 31. RU 305th Artillery Bde (5th Army) shown targeting UA positions near Vremivka (archival).
Lyman Axis:5 RU attacks near Hrekivka, Nove, towards Novomykhailivka, Zelena Dolyna; 2 clashes ongoing (UGS 16:00). UA Hard Skills Group sniper activity reported in Kreminna forest area, claiming RU personnel eliminated (Apr 3). RU claims 2km advance from Ivanivka towards Nove, assault between Katerynivka/Nove, cleared area between Makiivka/Novoliubivka (Apr 3). RU claims expanded bridgehead W of Zherebets River by 2.5 km near Novoliubivka (Geolocated Apr 3).
Kursk Border Area / Sumy Oblast:4 RU attacks repelled by UA forces in Kursk Oblast (UGS 16:00). RU MoD CLAIM (Apr 3): Claim offensive actions by "Sever" Group near Hornal, Huyevo, Oleshnia (Kursk), repelled 1 UA counterattack. Claim strikes on UA forces in multiple Sumy Oblast settlements (Basivka, Bilovody, etc.). Claimed UA losses in 24h: >180 personnel KIA/WIA, 1 BMP, 2 AFVs, 11 vehicles, 2 mortars, 5 UAV control points, 1 ammo depot destroyed. Claimed destruction of UA ground-based EW station in Sumy region via FPV drone. Evidence of abandoned UA BTR-60PB with cope cage found in Kursk Oblast (Apr 3). RU sources claim ongoing removal of UA KIA from Sudzha area (Apr 3).
Orikhiv Axis:6 RU attacks near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamyanske; fighting ongoing (UGS 16:00). Lobkove captured by RU forces (RU MoD Confirmed Apr 3). RU claims advancing N/NW from Stepove/Lobkove towards Kamyanske.
Kramatorsk/Chasiv Yar Axis:1 RU assault repelled towards Predtechyne (UGS 16:00). Major RU mechanized assaults repelled near Andriivka (morning Apr 3):
Total Force (DeepState/Tsaplienko/Hayabusa/46 OAMBr/33 OMBr): At least 3 waves involving a total of 17+ Russian Armoured Fighting Vehicles (AFVs) and >40 infantry. First wave (06:30 UTC) involved 12 AFVs (tanks, BMPs, Kamaz) + 25 infantry attempting bypass towards Oleksiivka. Second wave (08:00 UTC) N of Andriivka involved BMP + BTR + 10-12 infantry. Third wave (10:00 UTC) involved 1 Tank + 2 BMPs + 6 infantry.
Ukrainian Defence: Actions coordinated by 46th Airmobile Bde, 33rd Mechanized Bde, 148th Artillery Bde and adjacent units using artillery and FPV drones.
Kharkiv Axis:1 RU attack repelled near Kamyanka (UGS 16:00). RU forces previously claimed destruction of a UA PZM-2 engineering vehicle and a T-72 near Lyptsi.
Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank Kherson):1 RU attempt repelled (UGS 16:00). RU CLAIM (Archival, late Mar): RU 61st Naval Infantry Bde operator downed a UA A1-SM Furia recon UAV via drone ramming. RU previously claimed FAB-500 strikes hit Korabel Island (port area), destroying alleged UA FPV drone facility and personnel (Mar 31).
Other Axes (UGS 16:00 Apr 3): Kupyansk (2 RU attacks repelled near Zahryzove); Siversk (5 RU assaults repelled near Verkhnokamyanske, towards Ivano-Daryivka, Vyimka); Huliaipole (RU NAR airstrike on Novopil, no ground attacks).
III. Air, Missile & Drone Activity
Active Threats (as of 15:57 UTC):
Ballistic Missile Threat:CANCELLED for Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, and other oblasts (UA AF/KMVA/Zaporizhzhia OVA, alert ended ~15:50 UTC). Threat was active from ~15:16 UTC.
Reconnaissance UAVs: RU recon UAV active over N. Kharkiv Oblast towards Kharkiv city (UA AF, 15:07 UTC). Previous activity over E. Chernihiv Oblast reported earlier, threat cleared.
Tactical Aviation / KAB Threat: Persists for frontline oblasts.
Recent Ukrainian Air Defense / Strike Activity:
Air Defense:Downed 10 RU UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight (Apr 2-3). Intercepted 2x RU Kh-59/69 missiles over Zaporizhzhia (Apr 2). Active against RU recon UAVs.
Drone Strikes: Active FPV operations claimed by multiple units (Flying Skull: 8 RU KIA on Pokrovsk axis, Apr 3; Hard Skills Group: Sniper support on Lyman axis, Apr 3; Shadow unit: Night strikes on RU shelters, Apr 3; Khartia Bde: 41 RU KIA claimed in 24h). Significant RU equipment losses claimed in Andriivka engagements (see Ground Combat). Border Guards ("Sapsan" unit) documented strikes in Donetsk Oblast.
Precision Strikes: Claimed use of GBU-63 JDAM-ER against RU command post (Kherson Oblast, Apr 1).
Air Force/Rocket Forces/Artillery (UGS, Past 24h): Hit 8 RU concentration areas, 1 UAV control point, 1 artillery system. Total RU losses reported by UA MoD (past 24h): 1390 personnel, 6 tanks, 22 AFVs, 49 artillery systems, 88 vehicles.
Recent Russian Air/Missile/Drone Activity:
Drone Strike on Kharkiv City (Apr 3, ~15:44 UTC): RU UAV struck Saltivskyi district. 1 civilian WIA reported (Kharkiv OVA Head Syniehubov).
Strikes on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Apr 3):
Nikopol District: Drone attacks and heavy artillery shelling on Nikopol city and Marhanets community. Damage to utility company, 3 private houses, 2 outbuildings, garage, car. No casualties. Fire reported.
Synelnykove District (Evening): Attacks on Mezhivska, Velykomykhailivska, Malomykhailivska communities. Preliminary 3 civilians WIA. Damage to ~10 private houses (1 caught fire), power lines, water pipeline (Dnipropetrovsk ODA Head Lysak).
Overnight UAV Attacks (Apr 2-3): Mass attacks targeted Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Impacts caused damage to residential/admin buildings, infrastructure in Kharkiv city, Derhachi, Pavlohrad, Mezhivska community. At least 1 civilian WIA in Derhachi.
KAB Strikes: Ongoing daily impacts on frontline oblasts. UGS reported 85 aviation strikes (123 KABs) in the 24 hours preceding 05:00 UTC Apr 3.
Claimed Strikes (RU MoD/Sources, Apr 3): Destruction of UA ground-based EW station in Sumy Oblast via FPV drone. Hits on UA missile/space industry, UAV workshops, ammo depots, concentrations. Specific claims include Geran-2 strikes in Kharkiv hitting alleged military personnel/facilities, destruction of UA PZM-2 near Lyptsi, strikes aiding infantry in South Donetsk, neutralization of 5 foreign fighters. RU MoD claimed downing 1 JDAM, 3 HIMARS projectiles, 138 UA UAVs (Apr 3). Video released of Mi-28 helicopter operations in Belgorod border area.
Air Defense: RU MoD released footage of Tor SAM systems operating.
