Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 3, 2025, 13:57 UTC
(Derived from intelligence reports dated Mar 30 - Apr 3, including ISW reporting as of Apr 2, Ukrainian General Staff reports as of Apr 3 16:00 UTC, UA Air Force updates up to Apr 3 13:50 UTC, additional intelligence/claims received up to Apr 3 13:57 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 62 combat engagements since the start of the day (as of 16:00 UTC Apr 3). Major friction points persist on Pokrovsk (highest intensity), Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Lyman, Orikhiv, Kursk border axes. Russian forces continue focusing efforts on Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions. High intensity reported on Kupyansk, Siversk, Kramatorsk axes as well, though with fewer initiated attacks today compared to Pokrovsk/Toretsk.
Novopavlivsk: Capture of Vesele (RU MoD Confirmed Apr 3); Capture of Rozliv (RU MoD Claim Apr 1, contested by UGS Apr 1). Advances W of Vesele towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border (Voin DV, Apr 3). 100-500m advance near Vilne Pole/Burlatske (Voin DV, Apr 3). 1km advance near Bohatyr (Voin DV, Apr 3). Advance >1.5km along Mokri Yaly river (Geolocated Apr 3). Claim entry into S. outskirts Fedorivka (Apr 3).
Toretsk: Capture of Oleksandropil (Confirmed Apr 3). Claims W of Oleksandropil, outskirts of Valentynivka, expanded control in Dzerzhynsk/Toretsk urban area (Apr 3). Claim expanded control near Panteleimonivka (Apr 1).
Pokrovsk: Capture of "Zaporizhzhia" settlement (RU Claim/Video Apr 1). Claim Panteleymonivka cleared (Apr 3). Claim entry into outskirts Kotlyarivka/Troitske (Apr 3). Claim 2.5km advance W of Andriivka (S of Kurakhove) (Apr 3). Claim advances near Preobrazhenka (Apr 3). Claim breach of UA fortifications W of Shevchenko (Apr 1). Claim advances W of Shevchenko, near Solenyi, Bohdanivka, Novooleksandrivka-Uspenivka (Apr 1).
Orikhiv: Capture of Lobkove (RU MoD Confirmed Apr 3). Claims advancing N/NW from Stepove/Lobkove (Apr 3). Claim 700m advance S of Novopokrovka (Claim dated Mar 31). Claim capture of Pyatykhatky, Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky (Mar 30).
Lyman: Claim 2km advance from Ivanivka towards Nove (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 3). Claim starting assault between Katerynivka/Nove (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 3). Claim clearing area between Makiivka/Novoliubivka (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 3). Expanded bridgehead W of Zherebets River by 2.5 km near Novoliubivka (Geolocated Apr 3). Claim advance >2.5 km W from Novoliubivka towards Katerynivka (Apr 1). Claim ~1km advance near Novoie (Apr 1).
Siversk: Claim 300m advance towards Hryhorivka (Apr 1). Russian advance near Sribne (likely Serebryanka area) reported (DeepState, Apr 1).
Kupyansk: Claim entry into Kondrashivka outskirts, street fighting ongoing (Apr 1).
Kursk/Sumy Border: Claim advances near Zhuravka/Basovka (Sumy) and Oleshnia/Huyevo (Kursk) (Apr 1); advances claimed W of Melovoy (Apr 1); attacks towards Dubrava urochyshche; storming Huyevo (Apr 1). RU claims fighting shifting towards Sumy border on three axes (Apr 1).
RU MoD Claims (Apr 3): GpV "Zapad," "Yug," "Tsentr," "Vostok" improved tactical situation/took more advantageous lines.
Ukrainian Advances/Successful Defense:
Advance near Pokrovsk (ISW, Apr 2/3).
Repelled major RU assault near Andriivka (Kramatorsk axis, Apr 2/3), RU used 19 AFVs, UA claims 12 AFVs hit (7 destroyed), >60 RU KIA/WIA.
Destroyed RU heavy mechanized bridge over Oskil River near Dvorichna (OSUV Khortytsia, reported Mar 30).
Captured 2 RU POWs during defense in Toretsk (National Police "Lyut" Brigade, Apr 1).
Reported surrender of RU Lt. V. Balgrabsky (7th MRR) near Kharkiv (13th NGU "Khartia").
Air Threat:
KAB Strikes: Persistent and high level. Repeated launches towards Kharkiv city, N. Kharkiv Oblast, Kharkiv/Donetsk border area (Apr 3 afternoon). Launches towards Donetsk Oblast (Apr 3 late afternoon). Launches towards Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk border area (Apr 3, 13:27 UTC). General threat for frontline oblasts remains high. UGS reported 122 KABs used in 72 airstrikes (Apr 1). Russia conducted 5 airstrikes (8 KABs) in the Kursk border zone (UGS, Apr 3).
Tactical Aviation: Activity reported on SE direction (Apr 3, 13:23 UTC) and Eastern/NE directions (Apr 1). Threat active for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Apr 3, 13:39 UTC).
Reconnaissance UAVs: Enemy recon drones active over SE Sumy & Chernihiv Oblasts, near Sumy city (potential strike guidance, AD possibly engaged) (Apr 3, 13:50 UTC). Activity over Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Apr 1).
Attack UAVs (Shahed-type): Ongoing attack reported targeting Kharkiv city (Apr 1 night, 5+ explosions, fire). Groups reported heading towards Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk), Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad (Donetsk) (Apr 1 night). UAV activity off Odesa coast towards Chornomorsk/Pivdenne/Fontanka (Apr 1 night). No Shahed attacks reported overnight Apr 1-2 or Apr 2-3 in available reporting.
Missile Threat: Nationwide alert due to MiG-31K takeoff resolved (Apr 3 morning). UA AF intercepted 2x Kh-59/69 missiles over Zaporizhzhia (Apr 2). RU MoD claims strike on UA missile/space industry enterprise (Apr 3). Iskander-M strike on Kryvyi Rih (Apr 2, 4 KIA, 14 WIA claimed).
Political/Diplomatic Context:
Ceasefire/Negotiations: President Zelenskyy stated a ceasefire could potentially be achieved in the coming weeks or months, emphasizing need for pressure on Russia and noting ongoing US-RU discussions (Apr 3). Zelenskyy reiterated Ukraine will not recognize occupied territories as Russian (red line) but suggested a diplomatic path for the return of some territories over time might be the only way, given the protracted nature of the war (Apr 3). Russia rejected US proposals "in current form" (Apr 1), demanding UA NATO non-accession, army reduction, annexation recognition. Kremlin reportedly views potential Trump presidency as best chance for desired UA concessions but is prepared to continue fighting (Bloomberg/RU sources, Apr 3).
NATO/Allied Support: SecGen Rutte stated NATO support allows Ukraine to "fight as long as necessary" (Apr 3). European NATO members discussing using NATO command structures for potential force deployment (Apr 3). UA FM Sybiha visiting NATO HQ (Apr 3). Denmark approved €970M aid package for 2025-2027 (Apr 3). Germany provided €130M package (Apr 1), confirmed €3bn for 2025, €8.25bn for 2026-2029. Lithuania delivered 6 AD systems (Apr 1). Latvia sending 1500 UAVs (total 12,000 planned H1 2025). Poland facilitated delivery of 5,000 Starlink terminals (Apr 3).
Energy Infrastructure: Ukraine (SDF South/UGS, Apr 3) reaffirmed adherence to agreements not to strike energy infrastructure, firing only at military targets. Accused Russia of violating agreements with strikes on UA facilities (Kharkiv, Poltava, Dnipro, Kherson Oblasts late March). Confirmed providing evidence of RU violations to US partners (Apr 1). Russia continues counter-claims of UA energy strikes. RU drone strike hit Kherson energy facility (Apr 1).
UA Personnel Loss: Death reported of Lt. Col. Serhiy Hnatiuk, Deputy Commander 116th Mech Bde (Apr 3).
II. Ground Combat Operations & Territorial Changes (Recent Highlights)
Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity):22 RU attacks initiated since start of day (Apr 3); 10 ongoing (UGS 16:00). Intense fighting. UA Combined Rifle Bde + Marines claim halting RU armored assault, destroying 2 RU tanks with FPVs (Apr 3). RU claims capture of "Zaporizhzhia" settlement (Apr 1) and Panteleymonivka (Apr 3); advances W of Andriivka (S of Kurakhove), near Preobrazhenka, Kotlyarivka, Troitske. RU MoD claims GpV "Tsentr" improved position, destroyed Leopard tank. RU reportedly used TOS-2 thermobaric system (Apr 1).
Toretsk Axis (Significant RU Focus):13 RU attacks since start of day (Apr 3); 4 ongoing (UGS 16:00). Oleksandropil captured by RU forces (Confirmed Apr 3). RU claims advances W of Oleksandropil, on outskirts of Valentynivka, expanded control in Toretsk urban area. RU Lancet destroyed UA pickup, Arty destroyed UA drone antenna in Dyliivka (Apr 3). National Police "Lyut" Brigade captured 2 RU POWs, noted RU tunneling tactics (Apr 1).
Novopavlivsk Axis:4 RU attacks initiated near Rozlyv, Kostiantynopil; fighting ongoing (UGS 16:00). Vesele captured by RU 5th Tank Bde (RU MoD Confirmed Apr 3). RU claims capture allows pressure towards Fedorivka, Komar, Mirne, Poddubne, threatens H-15 highway. RU claims entry into S. outskirts Fedorivka, advancing towards Bohatyr, >1.5 km advance along Mokri Yaly river (Geolocated Apr 3). RU claims advances W of Vesele (Apr 3), near Vilne Pole/Burlatske (100-500m), near Bohatyr (1km) (Voin DV, Apr 3). UA forces (Pres. Bde/31st Mech) destroyed RU assault column (Apr 1).
Lyman Axis:5 RU attacks near Hrekivka, Nove, towards Novomykhailivka, Zelena Dolyna; 2 clashes ongoing (UGS 16:00). RU claim 2km advance from Ivanivka towards Nove, starting assault between Katerynivka/Nove, cleared area between Makiivka/Novoliubivka (Apr 3). RU claim expanded bridgehead W of Zherebets River by 2.5 km near Novoliubivka (Geolocated Apr 3). Heavy fighting in Serebryansky Forest.
Kursk Border Area / Sumy Oblast:4 RU attacks repelled by UA forces in Kursk Oblast (UGS 16:00). Russia conducted 5 airstrikes (8 KABs). RU claims FPV drone "Boomerang" (claimed AI target lock) destroyed UA MG position. RU assault troops advancing in Sumy border area claimed (Apr 3). RU claim FPV strike on UA EW station (Sumy axis, Apr 3). Fighting reported ongoing for Huyevo (Kursk). RU claim Popovka (Belgorod) in "grey zone", UA forces in S. Demidovka (Belgorod). RU claims fighting shifting towards Sumy border on 3 axes (Apr 1). RU Duma grants combat veteran status for fighting in Kursk Oblast (Apr 3).
Orikhiv Axis:6 RU attacks near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamyanske; fighting ongoing (UGS 16:00). Lobkove captured by RU forces (RU MoD Confirmed Apr 3). RU claims advancing N/NW from Stepove/Lobkove towards Kamyanske.
Kramatorsk/Chasiv Yar Axis:1 RU assault repelled towards Predtechyne (UGS 16:00). Major RU assault (19 AFVs) near Andriivka repelled by UA Tactical Group "Vuhledar", 12 RU AFVs hit (7 destroyed), >60 RU KIA/WIA claimed (Apr 2/3). RU sources (Rybar/Arkhanhel Spetsnaza) report gradual RU advances in urban Chasiv Yar, ongoing fighting. UA counterattacks noted. RU analysis highlights Orekhovo-Vasylivka & Novomarkove remain under UA control despite RU claims, potential for UA counterattacks from Konstantynivka/Orikhovo-Vasylivka, and potential impact of RU false reporting (Apr 3).
Kupyansk Axis:2 RU attacks repelled near Zahryzove (UGS 16:00). RU sources maintain claim of street fighting in Kondrashivka (Apr 1). RU 352nd MRR used drones/incendiaries against UA equipment (Apr 3).
Kharkiv Axis:1 RU attack repelled near Kamyanka (UGS 16:00). RU claim destruction of UA T-72 tank near Lyptsi via fiber-optic kamikaze drone (Apr 3).
Siversk Axis:5 RU assaults repelled near Verkhnokamyanske, towards Ivano-Daryivka, Vyimka (UGS 16:00).
Huliaipole Axis: RU NAR airstrike on Novopil; no ground attacks reported (UGS 16:00).
Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank Kherson):1 RU attempt repelled (UGS 16:00). UA claim successful GBU-63 JDAM-ER strike on RU command post (Apr 1).
III. Air, Missile & Drone Activity (Recent Updates)
Active Threats (as of 13:57 UTC):
KAB Threat: RU tactical aviation launching KABs towards Kharkiv city, N. Kharkiv Oblast, Kharkiv/Donetsk border area, Donetsk Oblast, Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk border area.
Tactical Aviation Threat: Active on SE direction. Threat active for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Reconnaissance UAVs: RU recon UAVs active over SE Sumy & Chernihiv Oblasts, near Sumy city (potential strike guidance, AD possibly engaged).
RU MoD claims strikes hit UA missile/space industry enterprise, UAV workshops, ammo depots, manpower/equipment concentrations (Apr 3). Chronology suggests persistent strikes across Sumy, Donbas, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts (Apr 1-3).
RU MoD claims downed 1 JDAM, 3 HIMARS projectiles, 138 UA UAVs (Apr 3).
RU claim destruction of UA T-72 near Lyptsi (Kharkiv) with fiber-optic FPV drone (Apr 3).
RU claim destruction of UA EW station (Sumy axis) with fiber-optic FPV drone (Apr 3).
RU claim destruction of UA heavy hexacopter ("Baba-Yaga") near Lyptsi.
RU claim ZALA Z-16 recon drone used for Geran-2 strike guidance (Apr 1).
Energy Infrastructure: Ongoing dispute over adherence to "energy truce". Ukraine reports RU violations (late March strikes), Russia makes counter-claims.
IV. Force Generation, Logistics & Technology
Ukrainian Logistics/Capabilities: Received 5,000 additional Starlink terminals from Poland (Apr 3). Successful testing of Ukrainian FPV drones using fiber-optic communication (>20 km range) reported (Apr 1). Continued fundraising appeals for drones indicate persistent needs. Demonstrated precision strike (JDAM-ER) and counter-armor capabilities (FPV drones). New rotation mechanism reportedly proposed (90 days combat -> months rest).
Russian Logistics/Capabilities:
Equipment Issues: Persistent problems with secure tactical communications highlighted by RU sources; reliance on insecure Chinese radios (e.g., Baofeng) often purchased via marketplaces/resellers at inflated prices. Lack of available domestic alternatives like "Azart" noted (Apr 3).
Improvised Solutions: Evidence of reliance on volunteer groups modifying civilian vehicles (Lada Niva buggies) with anti-drone cages for frontline use (Kursk direction), indicating equipment shortfalls or adaptation needs (Apr 3). Observed testing new tactics (robotics, drone swarms).
Drone Countermeasures: Acknowledged threat from UA heavy drones ("Baba Yaga"); countermeasures discussed/implemented (anti-drone nets, "drone-trawler" UAVs). Claims of using fiber-optic FPV drones to overcome EW (Apr 3).
Personnel: Spring conscription drive ongoing (target 160,000). Contract recruitment continues. Law passed granting combat veteran status for Kursk border fighting (Apr 3). Reported morale issues persist (appeal from relatives of missing 25th Bde soldiers, Apr 1). Video highlights perceived disparity between frontline troops and rear-area service personnel (Apr 3).
Alleged Chemical Weapons Use: UGS maintains claims of systematic RU use of munitions with chemical agents (767 cases claimed in March 2025).
Information Warfare/War Crimes: RU PsyOp targeting NE Ukrainian cities noted (Apr 3). RU amplifying narratives about potential Trump presidency benefits for Russia (Apr 3). RU promoting film about Sudzha battles (Apr 3). Report details RU POW (N. Kartashev, 76th DShD) confessing to war crimes in Bucha (killing civilian guard) and reporting other killings by his unit; expresses no remorse and intent to return to fight for revenge. Z-channels reportedly praise him (ASTRA, Apr 3).
V. Accountability & Internal Affairs
Legal Accountability: UA Prosecutor General's Office sent indictment against 6 RU National Guard commanders (incl. 3 Generals) for war crimes related to Zaporizhzhia NPP seizure (Apr 3).
Ukrainian Internal: Meeting held between Coordination HQ for POWs and families of 77th Airmobile Brigade POWs/MIA (Apr 3). Explosion at Kyiv market caused by grenade, 2 KIA; separate incident injured man handling unknown object (Apr 3). Kyiv Military Administration accuses Mayor of attempting to usurp authority (Apr 3). Meeting of Association of Ukrainian Cities regional branch held in Dnipro (Apr 3).
Russian Internal: Law grants veteran status for Kursk fighting (Apr 3). FSB detains alleged UA collaborators. Political opponent sentence upheld, musician fined for "foreign agent" material (Apr 3). Report on volunteer group modifying Lada Nivas for Kursk front highlights reliance on non-state actors for basic equipment modifications (Apr 3). RU sources highlight issues with radio procurement/availability (Apr 3). Report on RU POW confessing to Bucha war crimes and expressing intent for revenge (Apr 3).
