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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-03 09:58:25Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-03 09:28:48Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 3, 2025, 09:55 UTC

(Derived from intelligence reports dated Mar 30 - Apr 3, including ISW reporting as of Apr 2, Ukrainian General Staff reports as of Apr 3 08:57 UTC, UA Air Force updates up to Apr 3 09:34 UTC, OTU Kharkiv update as of Apr 3 06:00 UTC, and intelligence/claims received up to Apr 3 09:55 UTC)


I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments

  • Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 216 combat engagements over Apr 2 (as of 05:00 UTC Apr 3). Major friction points persist on Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Lyman, Orikhiv, Kramatorsk (Andriivka area), and Kursk border axes. Multiple clashes reported ongoing across several directions.
  • Russian Offensive Focus:
    • Primary Axes:
      • Pokrovsk: Sustained high pressure (UGS Apr 3 05:00 UTC: 80 RU attacks repelled Apr 2). Intense clashes confirmed Apr 2 near Panteleymonivka, Sukha Balka, Shevchenko, Vodyane Druhe, etc. (UGS Morning Rpt). RU pressure/advances confirmed (ISW).
        • RU CLAIM (Kotenok, Apr 3): RU forces ("Center" Group) entered outskirts of Kotlyarivka and Troitske. RU armor engaged UA near Oleksiivka, deployed assault troops.
        • RU CLAIM (Slivochny Kapriz, Apr 3): Active fighting near Kurakhove. RU armor column attacked towards Oleksiivka. UA shelling RU assault elements. RU forces advanced 2.5 km West of Andriivka (S of Kurakhove) along the northern bank of the Vovcha River, establishing new positions (48.012707 36.997774).
        • RU CLAIM (Mash na Donbasse, Apr 3): Alleges UA stored ammunition in a civilian building hit in Pokrovsk district, citing images of shell casings/crates near damage.
      • Toretsk: Significant pressure (UGS Apr 3 05:00 UTC: 28 RU attacks repelled Apr 2). Clashes confirmed Apr 2 near Toretsk, Ozaryanivka, Dyliyivka, etc. (UGS Morning Rpt). RU pressure/advances confirmed (ISW). RU capture of Oleksandropil confirmed (Apr 3).
        • RU CLAIM (Kotenok, Apr 3): RU forces advanced, fighting reported in UA strongpoint W of Oleksandropil (near H-20 road) and on outskirts of Valentynivka. RU claim flag raised at Oleksandropil council building. Urban fighting reported near Dzerzhynsk/Toretsk (Rybar).
        • RU CLAIM (MoD RF, Apr 3): Grad MLRS strike on UA stronghold, Dzerzhinsk direction.
        • RU CLAIM (Colonelcassad Map, Apr 3): Shows RU advances and expanded zone of control within Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk).
    • Secondary Axes:
      • Novopavlivsk direction: (UGS Apr 3 05:00 UTC: 13 RU attacks repelled Apr 2). Clashes confirmed Apr 2 near Kostyantynopil, Rozlyv, Vesele, etc. (UGS Morning Rpt). RU pressure/advances confirmed (ISW). RU capture of Vesele confirmed (Apr 3).
        • RU CLAIM (Kotenok, Apr 3): RU forces ("Vostok" Group, 5th Tank Bde) broke through UA flank defenses near Fedorivka-Vesele, entered southern outskirts of Fedorivka, fighting ongoing. Claims advance threatens UA flank/rear towards Komar/Bohatyr and potentially Huliaipole line. Claims UA logistics via Oleksiivka under attack. RU forces advanced >1.5 km along Mokri Yaly river, took positions in southern Vesele outskirts (Geolocated: 47.926144, 36.773695). RU forces advancing towards Bohatyr/Komar, Zelene Pole, Novopil, Shevchenko, Voskresenka.
        • RU CLAIM (Voin DV, Apr 3): Drone strikes by "Vostok" Group units on UA forces, Shakhtarsk direction.
        • RU CLAIM (Voin DV, Apr 3): RU Drone strike (29th CAA) hit UA position in building on Bohatyr-Kostyantynopil road section.
        • RU CLAIM (Colonelcassad Map, Apr 3): Shows RU captured Vesele.
      • Lyman: (UGS Apr 3 05:00 UTC: 21 RU attacks repelled Apr 2). Clashes confirmed Apr 2 near Nadiya, Torske, Dibrova, etc. (UGS Morning Rpt). Fighting confirmed (ISW).
        • RU CLAIM (Dva Mayora, Apr 3): 2 UA POWs captured from 3rd Assault Brigade ("Azov") near Nadiia.
        • NEW RU CLAIM (Slivochny Kapriz, Apr 3): Positional fighting. RU forces expanded bridgehead on W bank of Zherebets River by 2.5 km near Novoliubivka. RU forward positions N of Novoliubivka under UA fire. (Geolocated: 49.176735,37.941529).
      • Kursk border area: (UGS Apr 3 05:00 UTC / morning report: 28 RU attacks repelled in Kursk Oblast Apr 2). Cross-border activity confirmed (ISW).
        • RU CLAIM (Dva Mayora, Apr 3): Popovka (Belgorod) reported in "grey zone", RU forces hit attempted UA reinforcement overnight. Demidovka (Belgorod) UA forces maintain presence in southern part, RU artillery/drones striking. Fighting for Huyevo reported ongoing (Rybar).
        • NEW RU CLAIM (Voenkor Kotenok, Apr 3): Missile strike on UA positions (129th TerO Bde claimed) near Huyevo, claims high intensity fighting ongoing.
        • NEW RU CLAIM (Poddybny/Kotsnews, Apr 3): RU 810th Naval Inf Bde FPV strikes N of Gornal.
        • RU CLAIM (Dnevnik Desantnika/Rybar, Apr 3): UA attempting to fortify near Guyevo/Gornal, using monastery; RU striking UA reserves. RU claim terrain loss here critical for UA Sumy defense.
        • RU CLAIM (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Apr 3): RU forces (51st PDP VDV) destroyed UA Bradley BMP in Oleshnia (Sumy Obl.).
        • RU CLAIM (Colonelcassad/Alex Parker/ZOG 2.0/Kotsnews, Apr 3): Video shows destroyed UA engineering vehicles (tank, possible BREM/IMR) near "dragon's teeth" defenses in Demidovka area (Belgorod border). RU helicopter activity (firing rockets, deploying flares) observed.
        • RU CLAIM (Kotsnews, Apr 3): RU claims UA bombed Belgorod airfield to counter RU helicopter activity in border area (Alex Parker).
        • RU ACTIVITY (Kotsnews/Dva Mayora, Apr 3): RU forces (30th MRR, 72nd MRD, "Sever" Group) reportedly evacuated civilians from vicinity of Guyevo (Kursk Oblast) to a safe location.
        • RU ACTIVITY (MoD Russia, Apr 3): RU 92nd Engineer Regiment conducting demining in Sudzhansky district (Kursk Oblast), clearing UXO left by UA forces.
        • RU DEFENSE (Alex Parker Returns/RVvoenkor, Apr 3): Reports of RU installing anti-drone nets on multi-story residential buildings in Shebekino and wider Belgorod Oblast.
      • Orikhiv direction: (UGS Apr 3 05:00 UTC: 12 RU attacks repelled Apr 2). Clashes confirmed Apr 2 near Stepove, Mali Scherbaky, Kamyanske, Novodanylivka (UGS Morning Rpt). Fighting/RU advances confirmed (ISW). RU capture of Lobkove confirmed (Apr 3).
        • RU CLAIM (Kotenok, Apr 3): RU forces ("Dnepr" Group) advancing N/NW from Stepove/Lobkove after capturing Lobkove; fighting ongoing near Shcherbaky/Mali Shcherbaky.
        • RU CLAIM (Kotsnews, Apr 3): RU training new drone operators, video shows BMP-2 strike, Zaporizhzhia direction.
        • RU CLAIM (Colonelcassad Map, Apr 3): Shows RU captured Lobkove.
      • Kramatorsk/Chasiv Yar: (UGS Apr 3 05:00 UTC: 6 RU assaults repelled Apr 2). Clashes confirmed Apr 2 near Chasiv Yar and towards Novomarkove, Stupochky, Predtechyne (UGS Morning Rpt).
        • UA CLAIM (UGS/Operativnyi ZSU/Butusov/Tsaplienko, Apr 3): UA forces repelled significant RU assault near Andriivka (Donetsk), RU used ~2 platoons + armor (incl. tanks, BMPs, KamAZ/GAZ trucks, "golf carts"). Claimed heavy RU losses: 12 AFVs hit (7 destroyed), 18 KIA, 7 WIA (UGS); alternate claim 42 KIA, 1 tank, 2 BMPs, 3 "golf carts" destroyed (Butusov/Tsaplienko). Counting ongoing.
        • Urban fighting reported (Rybar). RU claim fortified area occupied in southern Chasiv Yar.
        • RU CLAIM (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 3): Ongoing urban fighting. RU forces (incl. VDV) advancing. Claims Line of Battle shifted N of Dniprovsky pond, fighting in Kobzarya/Privokzalna street area. UA holding fortified positions near station industrial zone. Claims RU destroyed major UA strongpoint on Chekhova street. RU forces pressing towards center from Ognuporny plant and attempting to reach railway near pond.
      • Huliaipole: (UGS Apr 3 05:00 UTC: 5 RU attacks repelled Apr 2). Clashes confirmed Apr 2 near Pryvilne, Novosilka (UGS Morning Rpt).
      • Siversk: (UGS Apr 3 05:00 UTC: 5 RU attacks repelled Apr 2). Clashes confirmed Apr 2 near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske (UGS Morning Rpt).
      • Kupyansk: (UGS Apr 3 05:00 UTC: 4 RU attacks repelled Apr 2). Clashes confirmed Apr 2 near Zahryzove, Nova Kruhlyakivka (UGS Morning Rpt).
      • Kharkiv: (UGS Apr 3 05:00 UTC: 2 RU attacks repelled Apr 2). OTU Kharkiv (Apr 3): 2 RU attacks repelled near Vovchansk and towards Kamyanka Apr 2.
        • NEW UA CLAIM (Butusov, Apr 3): RU Lt. V. Balgrabsky (7th MRR) surrendered with remnants of company (5 total from battalion) near Kharkiv to UA 13th NGU "Khartia", citing hunger/command issues.
        • NEW UA ACTIVITY (Tsaplienko, Apr 3): UA 3rd Assault Bde ("Primus" unit, 1st Assault Bn) conducting drone strikes (munition drops) on RU trenches/positions in Kharkiv Oblast.
      • Prydniprovsky: (UGS Apr 3 05:00 UTC / morning report: 5 RU attempts repelled on Left Bank Apr 2).
        • RU CLAIM (Mash, Apr 3): RU "Dnepr" Group artillery (D-30) destroyed UA UAV control point on Right Bank.
  • Territorial Changes (Recent Assessments - UGS Apr 3, ISW Apr 2, Geolocated Footage & New Claims/Confirmations Apr 3):
    • Ukrainian Advance Confirmed: Near Pokrovsk (ISW).
    • Ukrainian Success Confirmed: Repelled major RU assault near Andriivka (Kramatorsk axis), inflicting heavy losses (UGS, Butusov).
    • Russian Advances Claimed/Confirmed:
      • Near Toretsk (incl. geolocated capture of Oleksandropil; RU CLAIM: Fighting W of Oleksandropil and outskirts of Valentynivka; RU CLAIM: Expanded zone of control in Dzerzhynsk/Toretsk - Colonelcassad Map).
      • Near Pokrovsk (ISW); RU CLAIM: Entered outskirts of Kotlyarivka and Troitske. RU CLAIM: Advanced 2.5 km W of Andriivka (S of Kurakhove) along Vovcha River towards Oleksiivka. RU CLAIM: Advance near Preobrazhenka (Colonelcassad Map).
      • Near Velyka Novosilka / Novopavlivsk: Confirmed capture of Vesele; Advance >1.5km along Mokri Yaly river and southern outskirts of Vesele (Geolocated); RU CLAIM: Entered southern outskirts of Fedorivka, fighting ongoing.
      • SE of Bohdanivka (Andriivka direction - geolocated).
      • Lobkove (Zaporizhzhia): Confirmed capture by RU forces; RU CLAIM: Advancing N/NW from Stepove/Lobkove.
      • NEW RU CLAIM (Lyman): Expanded bridgehead on W bank of Zherebets River by 2.5 km near Novoliubivka. (Slivochny Kapriz).
      • UA CLAIM (DeepState, Apr 3): RU forces advanced in Piatykhatky and Andriivka.
      • RU CLAIM (Chasiv Yar): Advances N of Dniprovsky pond (Kobzarya/Privokzalna streets); Strongpoint destroyed on Chekhova street (Dnevnik Desantnika). Fortified area occupied in southern Chasiv Yar (Previous RU Claim).
      • RU CLAIM: Advances towards Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia).
      • RU CLAIM (Belgorod Border): Popovka now in grey zone; UA presence confirmed in S. Demidovka.
  • Air & Missile Activity:
    • NEW RU KAB Launches (UA AF, Apr 3 09:05 UTC): Repeat launches towards Donetsk Oblast.
    • NEW Missile Threat (UA AF, Apr 3 09:34 UTC): Missile threat warning issued for Kharkiv Oblast.
    • NEW UA Recon Drone Activity (UA AF, Apr 3 08:52 UTC): Ongoing enemy recon drone activity noted in Sumy Oblast, potential targeting guides.
    • Previous (Apr 2): UA AF intercepted 2x RU Kh-59/69 missiles (Zaporizhzhia). Lull in Shahed attacks noted overnight Mar 31-Apr 1.
  • Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Territory/Occupied Areas (RU Claims):
    • NEW RU CLAIM (MoD RF/TASS/Kotenok, Apr 3): Over past 24h, UA conducted 4 strikes on energy infrastructure in Luhansk (occupied), Kursk, Belgorod, and Zaporizhzhia (occupied) oblasts. Claimed >11,000 people lost power. RU MoD frames attacks as evidence of Kyiv's "incapacity".

II. Ukrainian Defensive Posture & Operations

  • Active defense maintained, repelling numerous assaults across multiple axes, including intense pressure on Pokrovsk (80 attacks), Toretsk (28), Kursk border (28), Lyman (21) on Apr 2.
  • Confirmed Major Success (Kramatorsk Axis): UA forces repelled significant RU assault near Andriivka (Donetsk), involving ~2 RU platoons + armor. Claimed RU losses: 12 AFVs hit (7 destroyed), 18 KIA, 7 WIA (UGS video report, Apr 3); alternately 42 KIA, 1 tank, 2 BMPs, 3 "golf carts" destroyed (Butusov/Tsaplienko). Counting ongoing.
  • UA Drone Successes:
    • UA 10th Mountain Assault Brigade claims downing 4 RU UAVs: 1 Molniya attack UAV, 1 Zala recon UAV, 2 Supercam recon UAVs (Sternenko, Apr 3).
    • UA 414th OPUBAS ("Ptakhy Madyara") drone strike video on individual RU soldier released (Butusov, Apr 3).
    • Video released (Apr 3, 421st Sep Bn) showing destruction of RU equipment.
    • Video released (Apr 3, 59th Bde) showing drone attack on individual RU soldier (Pokrovsk direction).
    • Shadow unit released video (Apr 3) of nighttime heavy bomber drone strikes on RU shelters/trenches.
    • UA 63rd Mech Bde video (Apr 3) shows destruction of RU tank.
    • (Kharkiv): UA 3rd Assault Bde ("Primus" unit) drone strikes on RU trenches/positions (Tsaplienko, Apr 3).
  • UA Drone Capability Assessment: RU sources report UA deployment of new German/UA co-developed HF-1 kamikaze drones (150km range, 4.8kg payload, up to 4000 planned). First use claimed by RU in Sumy Oblast (Poddybny).
  • Counter-Intelligence: Deputy Director of educational institution in Sumy Oblast detained, suspected of providing RU forces with info on UA troop locations/movements near Kursk border (OGP/SBU).
  • UA POW Capture (Kharkiv): 13th NGU Brigade "Khartia" captured RU Lt. V. Balgrabsky (7th MRR) and remnants of his company (Butusov).
  • Information Warfare: UA sources warn of new RU disinformation campaign alleging UA use of chemical weapons in Kursk Oblast, possibly to create a pretext for RU chemical use (Tsaplienko).
  • UA Naval Development: Minehunters "Cherkasy" and "Chernihiv" completed NATO Level 1 evaluation, confirming interoperability (UA Navy).
  • UA CLAIM (Kharkiv Zone Losses Inflicted - Past 24h - OTU Kharkiv, Apr 3 06:00 UTC): 102 RU personnel (43 KIA), 73 units OVT (8 vehicles, 1 ATGM, 6 spec. equip, 1 EW, 57 UAVs). Destroyed: 74 shelters, 2 ammo depots, 1 fuel storage.
  • UA CLAIM (Southern Axis Losses Inflicted - Past 24h - Southern Def Forces, Apr 3): 158 RU personnel, 9 artillery systems, 1 ATGM, 1 "Murom-M" system, 7 EW systems, 35 vehicles/armor, 12 motorcycles, 5 boats, 3 ATVs, 2 Starlink antennas, 5 UAV control antennas, 10 comms antennas, 2 generators, 1 Orlan UAV, 2 Supercam UAVs, 2 field depots, 1 fuel storage. Destroyed: 67 shelters/dugouts, 1 observation post, 1 C2 post.
  • Personnel Recognition: Sgt Serhiy (92nd OShBr ATGM Platoon Cdr) awarded Order "For Courage" II degree. Cdr of DShV Recon Bn Grenade Launcher Platoon Sr. Soldier Andriy Marchuk awarded "Silver Cross" for actions near Pokrovsk (May-Jul 24) and Kursk (Jan 25 - claimed vs DPRK troops).
  • POW Support: UA Coordination HQ for POW Treatment resumes work of regional consultation centers following public appeal.

III. Russian Operations & Capabilities

  • Logistics & Personnel Issues: Needs reported for Azart radio batteries, UAZ pickup, satcom, drone detectors (Pokrovsk). Recruitment ads for FSB noted. Alleged desertion (unit 41885, Donetsk Obl) due to command threats, lack of support/pay/evac (ASTRA). Captured RU Lt. cites hunger (Butusov). Report of returned RU veteran (ex-prisoner) committing violent crime (Mobilizacia). Discussion on limited effectiveness and risks of immunomodulators for troops (Dnevnik Desantnika).
  • EW Development: "Ivan"-2 portable directional jammer showcased (WarGonzo).
  • Counter-Drone Tactics: Reports persist of static anti-drone nets and "drone-trawler" UAVs near Chasiv Yar. UAV ramming tactics claimed vs UA heavy drones on Vremivka axis. Anti-drone nets being installed on multi-story residential buildings in Shebekino and wider Belgorod Oblast (RVvoenkor/Alex Parker Returns).
  • Information Operations: Claims of UA losses/equipment destruction (see Losses section). Videos of drone/artillery strikes. Evacuation of civilians from Guyevo (Kursk) framed as "liberation". Narrative blaming Kyiv "terror" for hindering US-RU dialogue (Zakharova). Critique of RU command effectiveness circulated (Alex Parker Returns). Claims UA stored ammo in civilian building hit in Pokrovsk.
  • Advanced FPV Usage: Demonstrated use of fiber-optic FPV drones ("KVN") for destroying UA armor (Colonelcassad).

IV. Claimed Losses (Cumulative/Daily)

  • Russian (UGS, Apr 3 for past 24h): ~1390 personnel, 6 tanks, 22 AFVs, 49 artillery, 1 MLRS, 92 UAVs, 88 vehicles/tanks.
    • Specific UA Claims (NEW/Recent):
      • Andriivka (Kramatorsk): 18 KIA, 7 WIA, 12 AFV hit (7 destroyed) (UGS); or 42 KIA, 1 tank, 2 BMPs, 3 "golf carts" destroyed (Butusov/Tsaplienko).
      • Kharkiv Zone (Apr 2): 102 pers (43 KIA), 73 OVT (incl. 57 UAVs).
      • Southern Axis (Apr 2): 158 pers, 9 arty, 7 EW, 35 veh/armor, etc.
      • Kharkiv (POW): RU Lt & company remnants captured.
      • 10th Mtn Bde: 4 RU UAVs downed (1 Molniya, 1 Zala, 2 Supercam).
      • Ochi ta Zhalo (Donbas, Mar 29-31): 112 RU KIA.
      • Shtirlits (Undated): Named 6 specific RU officers KIA.
  • Ukrainian (RU Claims, Apr 3 & Recent): Losses near Vesele, Popovka/Demidovka, Guyevo (Kursk), Oleshnia (Sumy), Chasiv Yar (strongpoint), Kupyansk (equipment, AGS crew).
    • Specific RU Claims (NEW/Recent):
      • NEW (Kursk): Positions of 129th TerO Bde hit near Huyevo (Missile strike). FPV strikes N of Gornal.
      • NEW (Undisclosed Axis): T-72AV, BMP-
Previous (2025-04-03 09:28:48Z)

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