Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 2, 2025, 17:45 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH, particularly on the Pokrovsk Direction (RU claims ongoing assault on Bohdanivka; UGS reported 46 clashes earlier), Toretsk Direction (UGS reported 21 attacks earlier, 6 ongoing), and the Kursk/Belgorod border region (RU sources report ongoing UA activity/RU strikes; RU assessment: UA defensive actions aim to slow RU advance into Sumy; UGS reported 13 RU attacks repelled, 4 ongoing in Kursk earlier).
Russian Offensive Focus: Primary efforts persist towards Pokrovsk (incl. Bohdanivka) and Toretsk. Continued offensive operations reported on the Orikhiv direction (Kamyanske-Shcherbaky line, Lobkove contested). Attempts to consolidate positions and advance within the Kursk/Belgorod border area continue, viewed by RU sources as breaking UA's first defensive line towards Sumy. Sustained pressure is maintained towards Lyman and Chasiv Yar. Capture of Vesele (Novopavlivsk direction) claimed, with follow-on objective towards Komar indicated.
RU CLAIM (Novopavlivsk): GpV "Vostok" (5th Tank Bde/36 CAA) claims full control of Vesele. Reportedly cleared >200 structures (1.5km depth/1km front), inflicted ~70 KIA/WIA on UA 141st Mech Bde, destroyed 3 BBM, 8 vehicles. Consolidating positions. Offensive towards Komar reportedly ongoing. Requires verification.
RU CLAIM (Orikhiv): (Rybar, 17:04 UTC) Offensive continues Kamyanske-Shcherbaky line. Significant RU advances claimed N in Lobkove (247th VDV), but full control NOT yet achieved (contested). Advances towards Kamyanske (429th MRR), SW from Stepove, and pushing N in Shcherbaky. RU assessed to hold initiative.
RU CLAIM (Pokrovsk): Assaulting Bohdanivka, claim UA forces pushed to northern outskirts.
Ukrainian Defensive Posture: Ukrainian forces maintain active defensive operations. Counter-actions continue within Russian border territory (Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts). Ukrainian drone operations remain a significant factor (previously reported halting RU Pokrovsk S flank). Counter-battery fire and FPV drone strikes ongoing. UA 35th Marine Bde highlights destroyed RU light vehicles N of Andriivka (Mar), indicating RU reliance on such equipment for assaults.
Air & Missile Threats: Remain persistent.
UPDATE (Kryvyi Rih): Ballistic missile strike aftermath: Casualties updated to 4 killed, 14 wounded (incl. severe 8yo boy, 6yo girl treated on site). Rescue ops complete. Damage confirmed to civilian infrastructure. Power restoration ongoing. Investigation ongoing. RU CLAIM: Iskander hit a VPK enterprise.
UPDATE (Kharkiv): Casualties from earlier drone strike on residential building remain 5 injured. Ongoing Russian reconnaissance UAV activity reported. RU CLAIM: Recent strike hit logistics hub/repair base, destroyed UAV/EW components.
Aircraft Incidents:
CONFIRMED (RU Loss): Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber crashed in Usolsky district, Irkutsk Oblast (Russia). 1 pilot confirmed KIA, rest of crew (total 4) ejected. UPDATE: SAR team evacuated crew; survivors under medical observation. No fire reported at crash site. Power outages reported in nearby villages due to wreckage hitting power lines; debris scattered near Bureť village. RU CLAIM: Crash caused by technical malfunction. (Context: Aircraft type not produced since 1993, fleet aging).
Kursk Oblast (RU):RU NARRATIVE: Report features evacuated civilians from Sudzha district alleging hardships, destruction, drone activity, life in basements, and atrocities/looting during period of Ukrainian control (WarGonzo).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Event held for displaced children at regional library.
International Support & Political Context:
NEW (UK/Europe): UK proposes joint European fund ("Coalition of the Willing") for defence procurement/stockpiling (FT). UK adding £2.2B to defence budget 2025-26.
NEW (US/Russia Dialogue): Reports suggest potential meeting between Kirill Dmitriev (RDIF Head, sanctioned) and Trump representative Steve Witkoff in Washington (sanctions temporarily waived for Dmitriev). US Special Envoy Keith Kellogg expresses belief ceasefire is "on the threshold" but requires compromise from both sides. (RU MFA previously stated openness to "realistic" initiatives).
NATO allies committed over €20 billion military aid to Ukraine in Q1 2025 (Rutte).
US imposed new sanctions on entities/individuals linked to Russian grain theft.
Logistics Insight: Approx. 30-36 cargo flights (US) and 34 flights (European nations) arrived at Rzeszow, Poland in March, supplying aid. Trend noted towards supporting UA domestic VPK production (RU source analysis).
Ukraine Internal:RU CLAIM/NARRATIVE: RU sources amplify report by ex-MP Bereza alleging SBU attempted to arrest CINC Zaluzhnyi in 2023 during a meeting with NATO reps, implying internal friction. Requires verification; likely RU information operation.
RU Narrative/Propaganda: POW video (D. Parkhomenko) alleges poor UA training/morale/mobilization. POW video (V. Serdyuk, captured near Belgorod) shown calling family. Emphasis on UA untrustworthiness re: energy strikes; satisfaction with Putin's distrust of West; framing Kursk/Belgorod ops as costly UA actions; discussion of post-war fate of UA personnel. Poll results amplified showing high domestic support for aggressive military action.
II. Air, Missile & Drone Threats/Strikes
Active Alerts/Events (as of 17:45 UTC):
Kharkiv Oblast: Active Russian reconnaissance UAV reported earlier; UA Air Defence engaged (UA AF).
Threat of air strikes from Russian tactical aviation persists for frontline oblasts.
Kharkiv (UPDATE): Previous drone strike hit residential building, 5 injured. NEW RU CLAIM: Strike hit logistics hub/repair base, destroyed UAV/EW components.
NEW UA CLAIM: MiG-29 strike using AASM HAMMER bombs reported against RU position in Zaporizhzhia settlement (Donetsk Oblast), claiming secondary explosion destroyed building/occupants.
NEW RU CLAIMS (Other Locations):
Radisne (Odesa Oblast): Strike hit UA 37th Naval Communications Brigade HQ.
Kramatorsk: Strike hit warehouse.
Zolotyi Kolodiz (Donetsk): Strike hit vehicle parking area, disabled two UA Kozak armored vehicles.
Recent Ukrainian Strikes (Claimed & Confirmed):
Deep Rear AD: UA 14th Separate UAV Regiment previously claimed destruction of two Russian Buk SAM systems and one Tor SAM system deep in the Russian rear (Video provided).
Belgorod/Kursk Oblasts (RU): Ongoing UA activity reported by RU sources. Video shows destroyed UA equipment in Kursk Oblast.
Recent Russian Claims (Strikes & Interceptions):
Kursk/Belgorod Border Area: RU drone unit "Anvar" reported conducting strikes near Demidovka (Belgorod) against UA forces. RU assessment frames UA actions as costly attempts to hold ground and delay RU Sumy advance.
III. Ground Combat Operations
Pokrovsk Direction (High Intensity):
NEW RU CLAIM: Actively assaulting Bohdanivka, claim UA forces pushed to northern outskirts.
UGS reported 46 clashes earlier. UA sources previously claimed RU southern flank offensive halted by UA drones.
Toretsk Direction (High Intensity):
UGS reported 21 attacks earlier, 6 ongoing.
RU continues to claim control of Oleksandropol (Rozivka).
RU ASSESSMENT (Starshe Eddy): Compares UA actions to costly efforts in Krynky/last year's border incursions. Believes UA aims to slow RU advance into Sumy Oblast by defending current positions (Guyevo, Gornal, Oleshnia), representing UA's first defensive line. RU claims breaking this line.
RU CLAIM (Belgorod Border - Demidovka): Drone unit "Anvar" engaging UA forces. RU sources report ongoing UA MLRS/drone activity.
RU CLAIM (Capture): UA POW (Vladimir Serdyuk) captured by "Anvar" unit in Belgorod border area.
UA Losses Claimed: Video evidence shared by RU sources showing destroyed UA equipment in Kursk Oblast.
NEW RU NARRATIVE: Report features evacuated civilians from Sudzha district (Kursk) describing hardships and alleging UA atrocities (WarGonzo).
Novopavlivsk Direction (Significant Activity):
NEW RU CLAIM (Vesele): GpV "Vostok" (5th Tank Bde/36 CAA) claims full control of Vesele. Claims substantial UA losses (141st Mech Bde). Consolidating positions. Requires verification.
NEW RU CLAIM (Objective): Offensive operations continue towards Komar.
UGS reported 7 attempts earlier towards Rozlyv, Dniproenerhiia, Vesele, Burlaţke.
Orikhiv Direction (High Activity):
UGS reported 10 attacks earlier. Fighting ongoing near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamyanske.
NEW RU CLAIM (Rybar, 17:04 UTC): Offensive continues Kamyanske-Shcherbaky line. Significant RU advances claimed N in Lobkove (247th VDV), but still contested. Advances towards Kamyanske (429th MRR), SW from Stepove, and pushing N in Shcherbaky. RU assessed to hold initiative.
Lyman Direction (High Intensity):
UGS reported 15 attacks earlier, 7 ongoing.
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar Area):
UGS reported 6 attacks repelled earlier near Chasiv Yar and other settlements.
Support/Capabilities: UK proposes European arms fund. NATO aid >€20B Q1. US sanctions RU grain theft entities. AASM Hammer bombs used in claimed strike.
Personnel/Morale: Kryvyi Rih strike impacts civilians heavily (4 KIA, 14 WIA). Event for displaced children in Zaporizhzhia.
Internal Politics/Security (RU Claim): RU sources amplify report claiming SBU attempted to arrest CINC Zaluzhnyi in 2023. Likely RU info op.
Russia:
Capabilities/Losses:CONFIRMED LOSS of Tu-22M3 strategic bomber (Irkutsk Oblast), 1 pilot KIA. Crew survivors under medical care. Aircraft type aging (not produced since 1993).
Personnel/Training/Morale: Increased youth military training focus (Lipetsk schools: UAV piloting, electronic shooting ranges). POW videos used for propaganda. Poll results amplified showing support for harsh military action.
Narrative/Politics: MFA claims openness to "realistic" peace talks; parallel report of potential Dmitriev-Witkoff meeting in US. Kellogg (US) suggests ceasefire near but needs compromise. RU narrative blames UA for border fighting intensity, highlights alleged UA atrocities (Sudzha evacuees), emphasizes internal UA friction (Zaluzhnyi claim).
