Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 2, 2025, 09:45 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. 176 combat clashes recorded on April 1 (UGS, 08:00 UTC Apr 2). The Pokrovsk Direction continues to experience the highest intensity (64 attacks repelled/stopped on Apr 1). Significant activity persists on Lyman (17 attacks), Siversk (15 attacks), Toretsk (14 attacks), Kupyansk (11 attacks), Novopavlivsk (8 attacks), Orikhiv (5 attacks), Huliaipole (5 attacks), Prydniprovsky (4 attacks), Kharkiv (7 attacks) and in the Kursk Operational Zone (18 clashes).
Russian Strike Campaign: High tempo continues with Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs/UMPK), artillery, FPV/Shahed-type drones ('Geran'/'Gerbera').
Overnight (Apr 1-2): 74 drones launched (54 Shahed-type). Kharkiv targeted by at least 14 drones (hits confirmed, civilians WIA incl. 3 children). Odesa and Sumy Oblasts also struck. (Zelenskyy/Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 2).
RU CLAIM (Dnipro Strikes): Claimed 5 Geran drones struck military objects/TDLs in Dnipro city, alleging ~20 UA KIA (TASS/Rogov, Apr 2).
Energy infrastructure targeted: Sumy Oblast (FPV drone hit substation), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (artillery damaged power line near Nikopol). Power outages affected ~4,000 consumers. (Zelenskyy/Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 2).
RU Strike Chronicle (Apr 1-2): Extensive list of claimed/reported strikes across Donbas (Kramatorsk, Pokrovsk, Sloviansk, Lyman), Sumy (Krasnopillya, Zemliane, border areas), Kharkiv (Kozacha Lopan, city), Zaporizhzhia (near oblast border junction, Kamyshevakha, near Zaporizhzhia city), Kherson, Odesa (Yuzhne port, Illichivsk port, Odesa city outskirts), Dnipropetrovsk using UMPK, Geran/Gerbera, RZSO. (Colonelcassad, Apr 2).
RU CLAIM (Targets Apr 1-2): Strikes targeted military-industrial objects in Kramatorsk, Kharkiv, Odesa Oblast (incl. ports Yuzhne, Illichivsk). Yuzhne port identified as key fuel import point for Ukraine. (Poddubny/Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
RU CLAIM (Iskander Strike): Claimed Iskander-M strike in Ivot (Sumy Oblast) hit UA mobile fire group (NGU 2nd Regt), destroying 2 Kozak vehicles, 1 M1097 Avenger, killing 9 / wounding 7 personnel, and hit a mobile command post. (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
RU MoD CLAIM (UA Energy Strikes): Russian MoD alleges Ukraine intentionally attacked Russian energy infrastructure twice in the past 24 hours, specifically targeting a substation (near Klyukva) and another energy facility (power line) in Kursk Oblast, causing power disruptions affecting ~1,500 consumers. MoD noted these strikes continue despite statements by President Zelenskyy about observing limitations. Peskov reiterated RU adherence to a moratorium, claiming Kyiv does not. (TASS/RU MoD/Colonelcassad/Voenkor Kotenok/Peskov, Apr 2).
Potential Future Russian Operations:
Assessments indicate Russia is preparing reserves for another offensive effort, potentially commencing in May (Head of UA Centre for Countering Disinformation, Apr 2).
Conflicting reports (some citing UA sources via RU channels) suggest Russia may be preparing for an offensive in April, alleging 2-3 divisions trained and equipped. Russian sources highlight conflicting Ukrainian statements on offensive potential. (RU Source citing Azov / Tsaplienko / Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 2; Operatsiya Z, Apr 2).
Lyman Direction Focus: ISW assesses RU forces are expanding their bridgehead NE of Lyman, creating conditions for potential future offensives towards Borova (Kharkiv Obl.) and Lyman city, potentially aiming to complete the occupation of Luhansk Oblast. RU forces reportedly reinforcing infantry attacks with significantly larger numbers (claim 10:1 superiority cited by UA commanders). (Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor citing ISW/UA commanders, Apr 2).
Russian Main Efforts & Claims:
Primary offensive focus remains directed towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure continues on Lyman, Siversk, Kupyansk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, and within the Kursk/Belgorod Operational Zones (targeting Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts). Russian forces continue efforts on the Kramatorsk (Chasiv Yar) direction.
Russian Force Generation & Morale:
Reports from captured Russian soldier (D. Zyulin, 9th Bde, Ulyanovsk) claim high attrition (3 survivors from 60), inadequate support/treatment by command, disillusionment with state propaganda vs. reality on the ground, and effectiveness of Ukrainian drones. Soldier expressed surprise at humane POW treatment by Azov Brigade compared to narratives. (Nikolaevsky Vanek, Apr 2).
Reports of continued raids by OMON/military commissariat personnel targeting men in Moscow fitness clubs for military service checks. (MOBILIZATION News, Apr 2).
Report of intoxicated ex-Wagner PMC member attacking police in Tver Oblast, referencing alleged war crimes. (ASTRA, Apr 2).
Proposal in State Duma to grant veteran status to volunteer formations operating in border regions (Kursk Oblast). (Basurin, Apr 2).
Ukrainian Manpower Policy & Admin:
Ukrainian government increased reservation quota for employees of critical communal infrastructure enterprises to 75%. Employees of the "Defense Procurement Agency" and "State Logistics Operator" eligible for 100% reservation. (Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 2).
The "Army+" mobile application has been updated with six new electronic report templates for dismissal from military service due to family circumstances or health conditions, intended to streamline the process. (UGS, Apr 2).
Coordination HQ held meeting with families of POWs/detained military personnel, discussing release mechanisms for those under investigation/sentenced, potential transfer to third countries, release for health reasons, release of detained civilians, and international appeals. (Coordination HQ POWs, Apr 2).
Prisoner of War Exchange: An exchange of 1,500 parcels for POWs is planned for April between Russia and Ukraine (RU Source/Moskalkova, Apr 2).
Commemoration: Ukrainian leadership commemorated the 3rd anniversary of the liberation of Kyiv Oblast (April 2, 2022), emphasizing the role of AFU, territorial defense, local residents, and Kyivans in repelling the Russian advance on the capital. (UGS/Zelenskyy/KMVA/OTU Kharkiv/AFU StratCom, Apr 2).
Tactical Markings: Russian sources discuss observed new Ukrainian tactical vehicle markings (e.g., three arrows on 24th OMBR vehicles seen destroyed by RU forces), citing alleged captured UA documents detailing marking rules for different OTUs (Kharkiv, Starobilsk, Luhansk, Donetsk). Acknowledge possibility of UA deception operations. Reportedly, vehicles with new markings seen arriving in Sloviansk. (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Apr 2).
Internal Security (UA):
SBU announced the prevention of an alleged GRU-planned terrorist attack in Lviv. Claimed plot involved planting an IED hidden in a package inside a district police building, intended for remote detonation. A 22-year-old Kyiv woman allegedly recruited via Telegram was detained as a suspected executor. (ASTRA/SBU, Apr 2).
Enhanced security measures implemented in Lviv and Lviv Oblast near administrative buildings due to perceived threat of Russian diversionary actions. Police checking suspicious persons and vehicles for explosives. (Operativnyi ZSU citing MP, Apr 2).
Foreign Fighters: Image reportedly shows Colombian national killed fighting for Ukraine. (Alex Parker Returns, Apr 2).
UA Officer Losses Claimed by RU: Russian sources report alleged KIA of 5 Ukrainian officers (listing names/ranks). (Anatoliy Shtefan, Apr 2).
Weather Outlook: Cold snap expected across western, northern, and parts of central Ukraine starting April 5, with potential snow and strong wind from April 6, lasting through the following week. (RBC-Ukraina citing forecaster, Apr 2).
II. Territorial Changes & Control (Assessed/Claimed)
Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts (RU) / Sumy Border:
UGS reports 18 Russian attacks repelled in Kursk Oblast on April 1. RU conducted 27 air strikes (41 KABs) and 265 artillery attacks (2 MLRS) in this zone (UGS Apr 2). RU MoD CLAIM: UA lost >150 personnel and 2 UAV control points in Kursk Oblast over past day (TASS, Apr 2).
RU Assessment (Stabilization/Ongoing Fighting): Russian sources claim stabilization in Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Belgorod), but situation remains tense. Positional fighting continues. (Rybar, Apr 2).
Popovka: Assessed as extensive grey zone with meeting battles of small groups, mutual artillery fire. RU drones target UA armor attempting incursions. (Rybar, Apr 2). Fighting continues (Colonelcassad, Apr 2). RU claims stopping UA breakthrough attempts by small groups (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
Demidovka: Meeting battles continue. Both sides use artillery/aviation, destroying the settlement. RU claims UA reinforcing from Maryino/Prokhody to hold positions. (Rybar, Apr 2). Fighting continues (Colonelcassad, Apr 2). RU claims stopping UA breakthrough attempts by small groups (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
Grafovka/Prilesya: Limited UA activity reported, possibly due to terrain/roads. RU strikes target reported UA concentrations in Turya. (Rybar, Apr 2).
UA Fortifications: RU sources claim UA forces are equipping fortifications near Demidovka and Popovka after failed breakthrough attempts towards Krasnaya Yaruga. UA actively reinforcing the area. (Rybar, Apr 2).
RU Claims (Advances/Clearing): Claimed capture/clearing of Guyevo (Kursk). Assessed Russian advances along Sumy border near Zhuravka/Basovka line (RU claim expansion near Basovka). Geolocated Russian advance East of Oleshnia (Kursk). Fighting reported near Oleshnia, Guyevo, Popovka, Demidovka (RU Sources, Apr 2). RU claim remnants of UA forces pushed from Hoholivka. RU CLAIM: Expanded zone of control towards Oleshnia (Colonelcassad citing Divgen map, Apr 2).
RU CLAIM (Repelled UA Attacks): Repelled UA armored breakthrough attempt into Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Belgorod Obl.) from Sumy Oblast; destroying BREM M88A2, BMP, BTR M-113, damaging UA tank (Dva Mayora/Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2). Dnevnik Desantnika notes UA using little heavy tech here.
RU CLAIM (Grad Strike): MoD Russia claims Grad MLRS (40th Marine Bde, Sever Group) destroyed UA hardware and manpower cluster in the Kursk border area (MoD Russia, Apr 2).
RU CLAIM (Dam Strike - FAB-3000): VKS reportedly bombed a dam near Popovka (Belgorod Obl.) with a FAB-3000 bomb, alleging it was used by UA forces for vehicle crossings. (Colonelcassad / Alex Parker Returns / Dva Mayora, Apr 2; RVvoenkor Apr 1).
RU MoD CLAIM (UA Energy Strikes): Claimed Ukrainian forces struck a substation (near Klyukva) and another energy facility (power line) in Kursk Oblast, causing power disruptions (TASS/RU MoD/Colonelcassad/Voenkor Kotenok, Apr 2).
RU CLAIM: GpV "Sever" captured 2 Ukrainian POWs (RU Source, Apr 2). Spetsnaz "Anvar" claimed strikes on UA forces in Demidovka (RVvoenkor via Operatsiya Z, Apr 2). High UA drone activity noted, hitting civilian/military targets (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
Kharkiv Direction: Assessed Russian advances near Lyptsi and Vovchansk (ISW). RU CLAIM: Russian forces pushed UA forces from positions near Lyptsi and expanded control near Vovchansk (TASS/Marochko, Apr 2). OTU Kharkiv reports 7 Russian attacks repelled near Vovchansk, Krasne Pershe, Kamyanka, Lyptsi (Apr 1). OTU Kharkiv reports Russian losses (Apr 1): 101 personnel (65 irrecoverable), 1 arty system, 6 vehicles, 14 spec equip, 41 UAVs destroyed/damaged. 73 Russian shelters and 1 ammo storage destroyed.
RU CLAIM (Strike): Molniya fixed-wing UAV team (Zapad Group) claimed strike on UA manpower/materiel concentration in Kharkiv region. (MoD Russia, Apr 2).
Kupyansk Direction:
Russian sources report advance towards Kondrashivka with street fighting ongoing for days, claiming northern part secured (Voenkor Kotenok/Rybar, Apr 2). RU CLAIM: Russian forces advanced N of Kupyansk towards Kondrashivka, described as an important logistics point for UA forces in Kupyansk; claim RU forces secured outskirts (Poddubny, Apr 2).
Attempts ongoing to secure Mala Shapkovka. Ukrainian forces counterattacking.
RU CLAIM (UA Assault Repelled): Russian 352nd MSR claims repelling a Ukrainian assault N of Stepova Novoselivka, alleging destruction of 1 UA armored fighting vehicle (BBM) and inflicting infantry casualties during dismount and subsequent attack attempt (Dva Mayora, Apr 2).
UGS reports 11 Russian attacks repelled near Pischane, Stepova Novoselivka, Nova Kruhliakivka, Zahryzove (Apr 1).
Lyman Direction:
RU Claims/Assessment: Russian forces assessed expanding bridgehead NE of Lyman, creating conditions for potential future offensives towards Borova (Kharkiv Obl.) and Lyman city (Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor citing ISW, Apr 2). Assessed Russian advances North of Novoliubivka (geolocated) (ISW). RU CLAIM: Advance towards Katerynivka and expanded zone of control near Katerynivka (Colonelcassad citing Divgen map, Apr 2). Potential RU focus shift NW from Ivanivka towards Nove, Katerynivka, and Borova (ISW assessment via UA Source, Apr 2). Russian sources claim continued attacks towards Nove and Katerynivka (Rybar, Apr 2).
RU Capabilities: RU forces reportedly reinforced infantry attacks with significantly larger numbers; UA commanders cited claiming 10:1 RU numerical superiority (Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor, Apr 2).
RU CLAIM: 16th Spetsnaz Brigade (GpV "Zapad") destroyed UA UAV control point, Starlink system, and personnel in Serebryansky Forest (48.977140 38.044550) (Colonelcassad, Apr 2).
UA Action: Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade reported recapture of Nadiia (Luhansk Oblast) (UA Source citing 3rd Aslt Bde, Apr 2).
Siversk Direction: Advance near Sribne reported (DeepState map update, Apr 1). RU CLAIM: Fighting initiated for Hryhorivka (TASS/Rybar, Apr 2). UGS reports 15 Russian attacks repelled near Bilohorivka, Ivano-Dariivka, and towards Verkhnokamyanske, Serebryanka (Apr 1).
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar):
RU CLAIM: Russian "Nevsky" Brigade (Volunteer Corps, GpV South) advanced 2.5km on this direction in the past two weeks (TASS, Apr 2). UGS reported 7 combat clashes on April 1 near Chasiv Yar, Kurdyumivka, towards Predtechyne.
RU ACTION: FPV drone strike targeted abandoned UA BTR near Nikolaevka (coordinates 48.580935 37.811887), approx. 1 km from LBS. (Slivochniy Kapriz, Apr 2).
RU ACTION: Claimed successful FPV drone strike destroying UA HMMWV East of Dachne (48.43374, 37.90594), causing ammo detonation. Distance ~2km from LBS. (Slivochny Kapriz, Apr 2).
UGS reported 14 Russian attacks repelled/stopped on April 1.
Pokrovsk Direction:HIGHEST INTENSITY. UGS reports 64 Russian attacks repelled on April 1 near Kalynove, Tarasivka, Berezivka, Zelene, Kotlyne, Oleksandropil, Sribne, Vodyane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Andriyivka, also towards Bohdanivka, Novoserhiivka, Romanivka and Pokrovsk.
RU CLAIM (Assessment/UA Counterattacks): RU sources claim the entire Pokrovsk front section is in an active phase of Ukrainian offensive actions/counterattacks. Allege UA is bringing in additional forces, including 'specialists' rather than mobilized personnel, for counterattacks (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
RU CLAIM (Advances/Fighting): Fierce fighting near Novooleksandrivka and Udachne. Russian forces (GpV "Center") advanced in Preobrazhenka (approaching/completing clearing of western part). Fighting for outskirts of Kotlyne. Attacks on Troitske - Bohdanivka line. (Voenkor Kotenok, Apr 2).
RU CLAIM (Map): Claimed Russian advances near Nadezhdinka, Zaporizhzhia village, and Bohdanivka. (Z Komitet map, Apr 2).
RU CLAIM (UA Losses): West of Lysivka, RU forces claim destruction of 2 UA tanks and 1 BMP during UA counterattacking actions (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2). Near Shevchenko, RU claim destruction of a French VAB APC with FPV drone after a failed UA counterattack attempt (Colonelcassad, Apr 2). RU claims destruction of UA T-80BV, T-72AV, and BMP-1 via FPV drones in the direction (Colonelcassad, Apr 2).
RU ACTION/Assessment (Zelene): RU drone strike reported on a UA temporary deployment point (PVD) in the southeastern part of Zelene. RU source claims the situation along the line of contact (LBS) in Zelene is "shifting not in our favor" (implying UA gains/pressure) (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
RU ACTION: FPV drone operators (33rd MSR / 20th MSD) claim strikes inside buildings used as shelter by UA forces in Tarasivka. (Dva Mayora, Apr 2).
UA ACTION: UA 59th Brigade drone units (SBS) destroyed RU personnel and light vehicles near Uspenivka. Brigade reported holding defensive lines firmly at Uspenivka and Nadiivka despite heavy RU pressure/losses. Claimed RU attempt to enter Novooleksandrivka via gully was repelled by FPV drone strike. (DeepState, Apr 2). 'Flying Skull' unit (likely part of 59th Bde) reported destroying RU tank, BMP, car; damaging another tank, motorcycle, car with drones in this area. (STERNENKO, Apr 2).
Novopavlivsk Direction: UGS reports 8 Russian attacks repelled near Kostyantynopil and Rozlyv (Apr 1).
RU CLAIM (Liberation): RU MoD claimed liberation of Rozliv (Apr 1). Contradicted UGS report of ongoing fighting. RU sources claimed clearing west of Rozlyv, advancing towards Bohatyr. (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 1).
