Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 2, 2025, 05:45 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. 176 combat clashes recorded on April 1 (UGS, 08:00 UTC Apr 2). The Pokrovsk Direction continues to see the highest intensity (64 attacks repelled/stopped on Apr 1). Significant activity persists on Lyman (17 attacks), Siversk (15 attacks), Toretsk (14 attacks), Kupyansk (11 attacks), Novopavlivsk (8 attacks), and in the Kursk Operational Zone (18 clashes).
Russian Main Efforts & Claims:
Primary offensive focus remains on Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure continues on Lyman, Siversk, Kupyansk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and in the Kursk/Belgorod Operational Zones (targeting Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts).
Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts (RU): RU sources claim situation stabilizing. Claim confirmed clearing/capture of Guyevo (Kursk) (Multiple RU Sources/Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Apr 2). Assessed advances along the Sumy border (near Zhuravka/Basovka line, RU claim expansion of control near Basovka). Geolocated advance E of Oleshnia (Kursk). Fighting reported ongoing near Oleshnia, Guyevo, Popovka, Demidovka (RU Sources, Apr 2). RU claims remnants of UA forces pushed from Hoholivka. RU CLAIM: Repelled UA armored breakthrough attempt into Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Belgorod Obl.) on Sumy Oblast territory; destroying BREM M88A2, BMP, BTR M-113, damaging UA tank (Dva Mayora, Apr 2). RU CLAIM: GpV "Sever" captured 2 UA POWs (RU Source, Apr 2). Ongoing operations by RU unit "Sigma" reported in border region (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2). Spetsnaz "Anvar" claimed strikes on UA forces in Demidovka (RVvoenkor via Operatsiya Z, Apr 2).
Kharkiv Direction: Assessed advances near Lyptsi and Vovchansk (ISW). RU CLAIM: Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces from positions near Lyptsi and expanded zone of control near Vovchansk (TASS/Marochko, Apr 2). UGS reports 7 RU attacks repelled near Vovchansk, Krasne Pershe, Kamyanka, Lyptsi (Apr 1).
Kupyansk Direction: RU sources report advance towards Kondrashivka with street fighting ongoing for 3 days, claiming northern part secured. Attempts ongoing to secure Mala Shapkovka. UA forces counterattacking (Voenkor Kotenok/Rybar, Apr 2). UGS reports 11 RU attacks repelled near Pischane, Stepova Novoselivka, Nova Kruhliakivka, Zahryzove (Apr 1).
Lyman Direction: Assessed advances N of Novoliubivka (geolocated). (ISW) Potential preparations for large-scale RU offensive aiming for Borova or Lyman (ISW Assessment). RU sources claim continued attacks towards Nove and Katerynivka (Rybar, Apr 2). UGS reports 17 RU attacks repelled towards Torske, Novoho, Myrne, Novomykhailivka, Zelena Dolyna (Apr 1). RU CLAIM: 16th Spetsnaz Brigade (GpV "Zapad") destroyed UA UAV control point, Starlink system, and up to 3 personnel in Serebryansky Forest (48.977140 38.044554) (Colonelcassad, Apr 2).
Siversk Direction: Advance near Sribne (DeepState map update, Apr 1). RU CLAIM: Fighting started for Hryhorivka (TASS/Rybar, Apr 2). Claimed 300m advance towards Hryhorivka previously. UGS reports 15 RU attacks repelled near Bilohorivka, Ivano-Dariivka, and towards Verkhnokamyanske, Serebryanka (Apr 1).
Toretsk Direction: RU sources claim forces developing success near Panteleimonivka and attacking southern outskirts of Valentynivka (Rybar, Apr 2). (Previous DeepState confirmation of RU advance near Panteleimonivka). UGS reports 14 RU attacks repelled near Leonidivka, Dachne, Shcherbynivka, Toretsk, and towards Dyliivka (Apr 1).
Pokrovsk Direction: Assessed advances (ISW). Geolocated advances NW of Andriivka (ISW). Claimed 700m advance S of Pokrovsk near Bohdanivka (Apr 1, unverified). UGS reports 64 attacks stopped near Kalynove, Tarasivka, Berezivka, Zelene, Kotlyne, Oleksandropil, Sribne, Vodyane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Andriivka, and towards Bohdanivka, Novoserhiivka, Romanivka, Pokrovsk (Apr 1).
Novopavlivsk Direction: Capture of Razliv (RU MoD, Apr 1; ISW map shows geolocated RU presence/advance in Rozlyv). Geolocated advances on the eastern outskirts of Bohdanivka. Assessed advances near Kostyantynopil and Dniproenerhiya. (ISW/RU Sources). RU CLAIM: GpV "Vostok" advanced 500m along the front and 200m deep near Veseloye. Ongoing fighting for Vilne Pole (Dva Mayora/Rybar, Apr 2). UGS reports 8 RU attacks repelled near Kostyantynopil, Rozlyv (Apr 1). RU CLAIM: UAV operators of 14th Separate Guards Spetsnaz Brigade (GpV "Vostok") active (Voin DV, Apr 2).
Zaporizhzhia (Huliaipole/Orikhiv): WarGonzo reports ongoing positional battles with RU attempts to expand control zone and UA counterattacks; no significant LoC changes. UGS reports 5 RU attacks repelled near Pryvilne and towards Novopil (Huliaipole direction, Apr 1). UGS reports 5 unsuccessful RU attacks towards Novodanylivka, Stepove (Orikhiv direction, Apr 1).
Kharkiv UAV Attack Aftermath (Apr 1 Evening / Updated Apr 2):15 Geran-2 impacts reported (RU source claim/Rybar). Hits confirmed on two civilian enterprises (Kholodnohirskyi district), causing large fires (1000, 800, 70 sq m - Confirmed by UA SES & RU Sources, Apr 2). 8 civilians injured (incl. 3 children), all treated for acute stress reaction. Damage to nearby private homes (~20 reported damaged). (UA SES/ASTRA/RBC-Ukraina/Operatyvnyi ZSU/Rybar/Syniehubov, Apr 2). Additional strikes reported at 01:33 UTC (private house hit, roof/windows damaged, 48F injured - stress) and 00:51 UTC (windows/doors blown out, 40F & 9-month child injured - stress) (Syniehubov, Apr 2).
Nikopol District Attacks (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Apr 1 Evening/Night): Artillery and drone attacks on Nikopol city and Marhanets community. 1 civilian WIA (48F). Damage reported to private house and outbuilding (Lysak/Operatyvnyi ZSU/Vilkul, Apr 2).
Ongoing Air Threats (as of 05:45 UTC Apr 2): Threats persist, though specific active warnings may have subsided from earlier. Kyiv reported no air alerts overnight (KMVA, Apr 2). Previous KAB activity reported in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts overnight. KAB strikes hit outskirts of Udy, Duvanka, Baranivka (Kharkiv Obl.) on Apr 1 (Syniehubov).
Naval Missile Threat:ACTIVE.2 Russian Kalibr carriers remain deployed in the Black Sea, capable of launching a total salvo of up to 8 missiles (Ukrainian Navy via RBC-Ukraina, Apr 2, morning). No Russian vessels reported in the Azov Sea.
Civilian Impact (Updated Apr 2, 05:45 UTC):
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Malokaterynivka):CONFIRMED: 1 KIA (45M), 2 WIA (44M, 39F) from RU drone strike targeting vehicles near a house in a frontline community (Apr 1 evening) (Zaporizhzhia OVA / ASTRA / Operatyvnyi ZSU / RBC-Ukraina, Apr 2). Past 24h (Apr 1): 459 RU strikes reported across 9 settlements (incl. 5 air strikes, 277 UAV attacks, 5 MLRS, 172 artillery). 26 reports of damage to civilian property (Zaporizhzhia OVA, Apr 2).
Kharkiv City:CONFIRMED: Total 10 injured (incl. 3 children, 48F, 40F - all stress reaction) from UAV attacks Apr 1 evening/night. Approx. 20 private homes damaged, 2 civilian enterprises hit causing large fires. (UA SES/ASTRA/RBC-Ukraina/Operatyvnyi ZSU/Syniehubov, Apr 2). Damage also reported in Zlatopil (Lozivskyi district) from Shahed debris (windows). MLRS hit Prudianka (Kharkiv district), damaging house windows. Shelling caused house fire in Kondrashivka (Kupyansk district) (Syniehubov, Apr 1-2).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopol District):CONFIRMED: 1 civilian WIA (48F) from artillery/drone attacks on Nikopol/Marhanets community overnight Apr 1-2. Damage to private house/outbuilding (Lysak/Operatyvnyi ZSU/Vilkul, Apr 2).
Kherson City: Damage to contact network reported from RU shelling, impacting electric transport operation (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 2). Energy facility hit by drone strike (Apr 1).
Belgorod Oblast (RU): RU drone strike hit civilian GAZelle vehicle in Kazinka (Valuysky District), driver injured (RU Source/Rybar, Apr 2).
Occupied Donetsk Oblast (RU CLAIM): Drone strike hit civilian bus in Horlivka (Ploshcha Peremohy), 16 civilians injured (Dva Mayora/Rybar, Apr 2).
Energy Infrastructure: RU shelling damaged contact network in Kherson city. RU drone strike hit Kherson energy facility (Apr 1). Russia claims 2 UA energy strikes (Zaporizhzhia Oblast (occupied), Belgorod Oblast (RU)).
Ukrainian Defensive Operations:
Active defense repelling most assaults. Continued operations in Russian border territory.
Air Defense: Ukrainian Navy reports destroying 6 Shahed drones overnight (RBC-Ukraina, Apr 2). 1 RU UAV downed over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight (Lysak/Vilkul, Apr 2). RU CLAIM (MoD via TASS/ASTRA/Dnevnik Desantnika/Rybar, Apr 2):93 Ukrainian UAVs downed overnight over Kursk (87), Belgorod (2), and Rostov (4) Oblasts. Damage reported in Taganrog (Rostov) and Kursk city from downed UAVs/debris (Rybar).
UA Strikes & Actions: UGS reports aviation, missile troops, and artillery hit 5 RU concentration areas (personnel, W&ME) on Apr 1. Destruction of RU heavy mechanized bridge over Oskil River near Dvorichna confirmed earlier (Mar 30). Claimed successful GBU-63 JDAM-ER strike on RU command post (Kherson Oblast). National Police "Lyut" Brigade captured 2 RU POWs, countered RU tunneling (Toretsk).
Force Sustainment & Management (UA):
Ongoing drone fundraising needs highlighted.
Proposed MoD rotation mechanism: Rest after 90 days continuous combat service.
Alleged Violations of Laws of War:
Chemical Weapons (UA Claim): Systematic RU use alleged (767 cases claimed in March 2025).
POW Mistreatment (RU Claim): New video released (Apr 2) alleging severe mistreatment of a returned RU POW by Ukrainian forces. RU VIDEO (Apr 2): Testimony from alleged captured UA soldier (151st Brigade, Sudzha area) claiming poor pre-deployment medical checks, inadequate training, and positive treatment after capture (Colonelcassad). Requires independent verification; likely information warfare.
Strikes on Russian Territory (Apr 1-2):
Taganrog (Rostov Obl., Apr 1/2): UAV attack caused fires/damage in multi-story residential buildings (Liza Chaikina St 57, Lenina St 147) and debris found (1st Novy Ln 26); 2 civilians WIA (burns/cuts). State of Emergency declared. 85 residents evacuated (RU Sources/Rybar). RU MoD claims 4 UAVs downed over region.
Kursk (Apr 1/2): Multiple UAV attacks reported (RU source claims ~15 explosions overnight). Debris fell on residential building (multi-story building on Chekhova St); damage confirmed, no casualties confirmed by officials (RU Sources / Dnevnik Desantnika / Rybar, Apr 2). RU MoD claims 87 UAVs downed over region.
Belgorod Oblast: RU MoD claims 2 UAVs downed over region. Civilian vehicle hit in Kazinka.
US-Russia Talks: Russian Special Presidential Representative Kirill Dmitriev reportedly plans to visit Washington this week for talks with Trump administration representative Steven Witkoff. Stated aim is "strengthening relations...in search of ways to end the war in Ukraine." Dmitriev reportedly received temporary sanctions relief for visa purposes. First such high-level RU visit to Washington since Feb 2024 claimed. (CNN via Operativnyi ZSU/RVvoenkor, Apr 2).
II. Situation by Axis (Selected Key Updates Incorporating UGS 08:00 Apr 2 Report & New Sources)
Kursk/Sumy Border Region:
18 clashes reported (UGS, Apr 1). KABs launched towards Sumy Oblast (Apr 2). UGS reports 265 RU artillery strikes (2 MLRS), 27 air strikes (41 KABs) in this zone (Apr 1).
RU Advances/Claims: RU sources claim stabilization, confirmed clearing of Guyevo. Assessed RU advances near Zhuravka/Basovka line, claimed expansion of control near Basovka. Geolocated advance E of Oleshnia. Claimed UA remnants pushed from Hoholivka. Fighting ongoing near Oleshnia, Guyevo (RU Sources/Arkhangel Spetsnaza/WarGonzo, Apr 2). Ongoing RU ops by unit "Sigma" (RU Source, Apr 2). RU claims UA attempts resupply/evac near Oleshnia hampered by RU FPV/artillery.
UA Actions/Claims: Active defense, repelling assaults. RU sources claim UA uses night drone drops (82mm mortars/IEDs) on RU rear areas.
RU CLAIM (Grad Strike): Russian MoD claims BM-21 Grad MLRS strikes by "Sever" Group destroyed UA equipment and infantry in Kursk border area (Apr 2). RU VDV CLAIM: Grad MLRS destroyed UA infantry concentration (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
RU CLAIM (UA POW): Video testimony released of alleged UA soldier from 151st Brigade captured near Sudzha (Colonelcassad, Apr 2).
RU Policy: Plans to grant veteran status to volunteers fighting in Kursk Oblast.
Belgorod/Kharkiv Border Region:
RU Advances: Assessed Russian advances into Ukraine near Popovka and Demidovka, including geolocated advance in central Demidovka (Mar 31). Fighting ongoing near Popovka, Demidovka (RU Sources/WarGonzo, Apr 2).
RU CLAIM (UA Attack Repelled): Claimed repulse of UA armored breakthrough attempt into Krasnoyaruzhsky district; destruction of UA BREM M88A2, BMP, BTR M-113 on Sumy territory, UA tank damaged (Dva Mayora/Rybar, Apr 2). RU claims repelling small UA infantry group attacks. Spetsnaz "Anvar" claimed strikes on UA forces in Demidovka (RVvoenkor via Operatsiya Z, Apr 2).
Civilian Impact (RU): UA drone strike hit civilian vehicle in Kazinka, driver WIA (RU Source/Rybar, Apr 2).
Kharkiv Axis:
7 RU attacks repelled near Vovchansk, Krasne Pershe, Kamyanka, Lyptsi (UGS, Apr 1). Significant fighting noted near Lyptsi. (ISW)
RU Advances: Assessed Russian advances near Lyptsi and Vovchansk (ISW). RU CLAIM: Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces from positions near Lyptsi and expanded zone of control near Vovchansk (TASS/Marochko, Apr 2).
Mass UAV Attack Aftermath (Kharkiv City): Significant impacts on 2 civilian enterprises (Kholodnohirskyi district); large fires; 10 injured (stress reaction, incl. 3 children); damage to ~20 homes (UA SES/ASTRA/RBC-Ukraina/Dva Mayora/Operatyvnyi ZSU/Rybar/Syniehubov, Apr 2).
Kupyansk Direction:
11 RU attacks repelled near Pischane, Stepova Novoselivka, Nova Kruhliakivka, Zahryzove (UGS, Apr 1). Significant fighting near Kopanky and Nevske. (ISW)
RU CLAIM (Apr 2): Heavy fighting ongoing for 3 days for Kondrashivka and Mala Shapkovka. RU assault groups reportedly secured northern Kondrashivka; fighting continues for eastern Kondrashivka. Attempts ongoing to secure Mala Shapkovka. UA forces counterattacking (Voenkor Kotenok/Rybar). RU forces reportedly advancing towards Kondrashivka from north (Rybar).
Lyman Direction:
17 RU attacks repelled towards Torske, Novoho, Myrne, Novomykhailivka, Zelena Dolyna (UGS, Apr 1). Heavy fighting in Serebryansky Forest, near Terny, Torske, Dibrova. (ISW/UGS)
RU Advances: Assessed advance north of Novoliubivka (geolocated). (ISW) RU sources claim continued attacks towards Nove and Katerynivka (Rybar, Apr 2).
RU CLAIM: 16th Spetsnaz Brigade (GpV "Zapad") destroyed UA UAV control point, Starlink system, and personnel in Serebryansky Forest (Colonelcassad, Apr 2).
Strategic Assessment (ISW): Potential preparations for large-scale RU offensive aiming for Borova or Lyman.
Siversk Direction:
15 clashes reported near Bilohorivka, Ivano-Dariivka, and towards Verkhnokamyanske, Serebryanka (UGS, Apr 1). Significant fighting near Bilohorivka and Spirne. (ISW/UGS)
RU Advances: Advance near Sribne (DeepState, Apr 1). RU CLAIM: Fighting started for Hryhorivka (TASS/Rybar, Apr 2). Claimed 300m advance towards Hryhorivka previously.
RU CLAIM (Artillery Strike): Claimed destruction of UA artillery positions near Siversk (Apr 2).
Kramatorsk Direction (incl. Chasiv Yar):
3 RU assaults repelled near Chasiv Yar, Kurdyumivka, and towards Predtechyne (UGS, Apr 1). WarGonzo reports no significant LoC change, fighting continues in/around Chasiv Yar.
Ongoing KAB Threat: KABs launched towards Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast overnight (Apr 2). RU sources report massive Geran strikes on Kramatorsk overnight (Rybar, Apr 2).
RU VDV CLAIM (Apr 2): 98th VDV Div allegedly destroyed 1 UA tank and 3 AFVs attempting evacuation from Chasiv Yar. 215th Separate Recon Bn (98th VDV Div) allegedly destroyed UA pickup truck (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Pokrovsk Direction:
Highest Intensity (64 attacks stopped Apr 1). Attacks near Kalynove, Tarasivka, Berezivka, Zelene, Kotlyne, Oleksandropil, Sribne, Vodyane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Andriivka, and towards Bohdanivka, Novoserhiivka, Romanivka, Pokrovsk (UGS). Significant fighting near Novoserhiivka. (ISW/UGS)
UA Counterattack: Reported near Shevchenko. (ISW)
RU Advances: Assessed advances (ISW). Geolocated advances NW of Andriivka. Claimed 700m advance S of Pokrovsk near Bohdanivka. (ISW/RU Sources)
Ongoing UAV/KAB Threat: Shaheds active earlier. KAB launches reported targeting Donetsk Oblast (Apr 2).
RU CLAIM (TOS-2 Use): Claimed use of TOS-2 "Tosochka" thermobaric system (Apr 2).
Reported RU Morale Issues: Video appeal (Apr 1) from alleged RU 439th Motorized Rifle Regt. citing severe command misconduct.
Toretsk Direction:
14 RU attacks repelled near Leonidivka, Dachne, Shcherbynivka, Toretsk, and towards Dyliivka (UGS, Apr 1). Significant fighting near Toretsk, Leonidivka, Sukha Balka. (ISW/UGS)
UA National Police captured 2 RU POWs, countered RU tunneling tactics.
RU claims expanded control near Panteleimonivka (DeepState confirmed advance Apr 1). RU sources claim forces developing success near Panteleimonivka and attacking southern outskirts of Valentynivka (Rybar, Apr 2).
Novopavlivsk Direction (Kurakhove/South Donetsk):
8 RU attacks repelled near Kostyantynopil, Rozlyv (UGS, Apr 1). Significant fighting near Bohdanivka, Kostyantynopil, Dniproenerhiya. (ISW/UGS)
RU Advances: Assessed advances near Kostyantynopil and Dniproenerhiya. Geolocated advances on eastern outskirts of Bohdanivka. Russian presence/advance confirmed in Rozlyv. RU CLAIM: GpV "Vostok" advanced 500m along front, 200m deep near Veseloye. Ongoing fighting for Vilne Pole (Dva Mayora/Rybar,
