Nightwatch logo
'Nightwatch' text with white and gray letters
HomeMapNewsMilitary PulseSituation ReportsDaily ReportsList ViewVideosCyber Threats
Sign In
Contact Support
Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-01 12:46:40Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-01 12:16:43Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 1, 2025, 12:45 UTC

I. Overall Strategic Situation & Assessment

  • Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH along the Eastern Front, particularly the Pokrovsk Direction which exhibits intensity comparable to late Jan/late 2024 levels. Significant activity persists on the Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk directions and the Kursk/Belgorod border region.
  • Russian Main Efforts: Primary offensive focus remains on the Pokrovsk direction. Sustained pressure continues towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and across the border in the Kursk Operational Zone (potentially targeting Sumy Oblast). Russian MoD claims improved tactical positions on Kupyansk, South Donetsk (Siversk area), Pokrovsk, and Kherson axes (Apr 1, 12:41 UTC). Russian sources continue reporting observations of Ukrainian reinforcement activity near Chasiv Yar, speculating on potential Ukrainian counter-offensive preparations (Apr 1, 11:54 UTC).
  • Ukrainian Defensive Posture: Defensive operations continue, repelling numerous attacks. Ukrainian General Staff previously reported repelling 183 clashes in the 24 hours preceding 06:00 UTC Apr 1. Operational Tactical Group "Kharkiv" previously reported repelling 7 RU attempts near Vovchansk.
  • Key Threat Vectors: The Kursk Operational Zone remains significant due to persistent RU cross-border pressure. The Pokrovsk Axis faces the most intense RU ground attacks. Sustained Russian air/missile/drone strikes continue against energy infrastructure and civilian areas. ACTIVE THREAT: Russian tactical aviation active on eastern, northeastern directions and Azov Sea, threat of air strikes (including KABs) for frontline oblasts (UA AF, Apr 1, 12:33, 12:36 UTC).
  • Strategic Aviation Posture (RU): Monitoring sources estimate 19 Tu-95MS/Tu-160 strategic bombers are present at Olenya, Engels-2, and Dyagilevo airfields, with 9 potentially equipped for missile launches. Potential for future strikes exists, although timing may be influenced by recent Ukrainian successes against Russian aviation (Monitoring sources via Tsaplienko, Apr 1, 12:35 UTC).
  • Energy Infrastructure Strikes: Russian leadership (Putin) inquired about adherence to alleged moratoriums on energy facility strikes, potentially signaling consideration of future targeting strategies (TASS, Apr 1, 12:31 UTC).
  • International Support (UA):
    • Germany: Announced substantial military aid package: €3bn in 2025, €8.25bn over 2026-2029, totalling over €11bn (German FM via Sternenko, Apr 1, 12:17 UTC).
    • EU: European Commission transferred a €3.5bn tranche under the Ukraine Facility, bringing total financial aid via this mechanism to €19.6bn (PM Shmyhal via RBC-Ukraina, Apr 1, 12:21 UTC).

II. Territorial Changes & Claims

  • Novopavlivsk Axis (South Donetsk):
    • CONFIRMED (RU CLAIM / VISUAL): Russian MoD officially confirmed the capture of Rozlyv (Donetsk Oblast) (Apr 1, 11:30, 12:41 UTC). Propaganda video released showing flag raising by elements of 29th CAA (Vostok Group) (Basurin, Apr 1, 12:17 UTC). RU MoD claims over 150 UA personnel losses during the operation (Apr 1, 12:17, 12:41 UTC).
    • RU sources claim >90 sq km captured in South Donetsk direction during March (Colonelcassad video analysis, Apr 1, 11:25 UTC).
    • RU sources suggest Bohatyr is the likely next RU objective.
  • Kursk/Sumy Border Region:
    • Intense fighting continues. RU MoD claims inflicting losses on UA units near border settlements and repelling counter-attacks (Apr 1). Conflicting claims regarding territorial control persist.
  • Pokrovsk Axis:
    • Russian MoD claims improved positions and inflicting heavy losses (>430 pers, tank, AFVs) near Hryshyne, Shevchenko, Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk), Novoserhiivka, Dymytrov (Apr 1, 12:41 UTC).
    • RUSSIAN CLAIM: Russian sources claim a Ukrainian counterattack near Shevchenko was repelled with heavy losses, asserting RU control over the settlement, with UA forces pushed to defensive positions on the outskirts (RVvoenkor, Apr 1, 12:23 UTC).
  • Other Axes (RU Claims - Apr 1, 12:41 UTC):
    • Kupyansk: RU MoD claims improved forward positions.
    • South Donetsk (Siversk area): RU MoD claims improved tactical positions.
    • Kherson: RU MoD claims occupation of more advantageous positions.
  • Ukrainian Assessment (Previous - DeepState, Apr 1): Russian forces occupied 133 sq km of Ukrainian territory in March 2025. Rate of gain decreased vs late 2024, but offensive intensity increased, notably Pokrovsk.

III. Air, Missile, Drone & ISR Activity

  • Russian Strike Campaign: High tempo continues.
    • ACTIVE THREATS (12:33, 12:36 UTC):
      • RU tactical aviation activity noted on eastern, northeastern directions and in Azov Sea. Threat of air-launched weapons for frontline oblasts.
      • Confirmed launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) by RU tactical aviation towards Donetsk Oblast and Sumy Oblast.
    • Strategic Bombers: Estimated 19 Tu-95MS/Tu-160 available across key airfields, 9 potentially missile-ready (Monitoring sources via Tsaplienko, Apr 1, 12:35 UTC). Potential for strikes remains.
    • Energy Infrastructure: Putin queried adherence to alleged strike moratoriums, suggesting potential future focus (TASS, Apr 1, 12:31 UTC).
    • Civilian Impact: Confirmed 1 civilian KIA in Pokrovsk, 1 WIA in Oleksandro-Kalynove (Donetsk Oblast) from recent shelling. Potential additional KIA in Lyman pending search operations after artillery strike on house (Donetsk OVA via ASTRA, Apr 1, 12:40 UTC). Visuals confirm significant damage in Pokrovsk city and Lyman. Previous alleged UA UAV strike on bus in occupied Horlivka resulted in increased claimed casualties (16 WIA).
  • Ukrainian Air Defense & Counter-Strikes:
    • Previous successes include interception of two Russian Kh-59/69 missiles (Mar 31) and confirmed destruction of RU Pantsir-S1 AD system and Kasta-2E2 radar in Crimea (Feb/Mar incidents, confirmed Apr 1).
    • Demonstrated effectiveness of FPV/drone strikes against RU personnel, positions, and equipment (Butusov, Apr 1, 12:23 UTC).
    • UA 22nd Mech Bde released video showing destruction of RU targets (shelter, vehicle, antenna, generator) in cross-border operations (OTU Kharkiv, Apr 1, 12:31 UTC).
  • NATO ISR Activity & Air Policing: Ongoing (as per previous reports).

IV. Ground Operations & Territorial Control (Select Axes)

  • Northern Border (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy/Kharkiv):
    • Kursk Operational Zone: Intense fighting continues. Previous reports indicated UA repelled 27 RU assaults (Apr 1 morning). RU MoD claims inflicting losses (Apr 1, 12:41 UTC). Families of UA 80th Air Assault Brigade POWs captured on Kursk direction engaged with Coordination HQ (Apr 1, 12:44 UTC).
    • Kharkiv Axis: Previous reports indicated UA repelled 7 RU attempts near Vovchansk. RU MoD claims improved positions on Kupyansk direction (Apr 1, 12:41 UTC). RU propaganda sources allege mistreatment within UA 57th Bde near Vovchansk (RVvoenkor, Apr 1, 12:39 UTC). Audio suggests RU Capt. Grechukhin (82 MSP) threatened conscripts with Vovchansk assaults for refusing contracts (Nikolaevsky Vanek, Apr 1, 12:25 UTC). UA 22nd Mech Bde conducted strikes on RU territory (OTU Kharkiv, Apr 1, 12:31 UTC).
  • Eastern Front:
    • Kupyansk Axis: Clashes ongoing. RU MoD claims improved positions and inflicting losses (Apr 1, 12:41 UTC).
    • Lyman Axis: High intensity clashes ongoing. Civilian casualties reported in Lyman city due to RU artillery strike on house (ASTRA, Apr 1, 12:40 UTC).
    • Siversk Axis: Clashes ongoing. RU MoD claims improved tactical position and inflicting losses in the broader South Donetsk direction (Apr 1, 12:41 UTC).
    • Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar): Clashes ongoing. RU sources continue to report alleged UA build-up for potential counterattack (Apr 1, 11:54 UTC).
    • Toretsk Axis: Clashes ongoing. RU claims advances near Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk).
    • Pokrovsk Axis: Highest Intensity. RU MoD claims improved positions and significant UA losses (>430 personnel). RU sources claim repelling UA counterattack at Shevchenko. Civilian KIA confirmed in Pokrovsk city (ASTRA, Apr 1, 12:40 UTC).
    • Novopavlivsk Axis: RU forces captured Rozlyv (RU MoD/Visual confirmation). RU MoD claims inflicting losses (>150 personnel) near Bohatyr, Yalta, Zaporizhzhia (settlement), Zelene Pole. Propaganda video shows 29th CAA in Rozlyv.
  • Southern Front:
    • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Clashes ongoing.
    • Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): RU MoD claims improved positions and inflicting losses (75 personnel) (Apr 1, 12:41 UTC). Previous UGS report noted 1 repelled RU assault (Apr 1 morning).

V. Other Key Developments

  • Information Warfare & Counter-Intelligence:
    • Russian Narratives: Reinforcement of Rozlyv capture with flag-raising video; claims of repelled UA counterattack at Shevchenko; continued high loss claims against UA forces across axes; allegations of UA mistreatment of own troops (Vovchansk); framing RU actions as defense/liberation; use of historical narratives (WWII memorials); highlighting potential internal UA issues (contract refusals); Putin's query on energy strikes potentially signaling intent. Increased censorship noted (Roskomnadzor targeting Telegram channel for reporting Kharkiv strike details).
    • Ukrainian Narratives: Highlighting UA drone effectiveness (Khartia unit, 22nd Bde); confirmation of successful strikes in Crimea; exposure of RU coercion tactics (82 MSP audio); promoting troop motivation/recruitment; reporting civilian casualties from RU strikes; countering disinformation (Intl Legion case).
  • Cyber Warfare: Russian Railways (RZhD) reports restoration of website/app functionality following massive DDoS attack (TASS, Apr 1, 12:34 UTC).
  • Mobilization & Personnel:
    • Ukraine: Expansion of "Contract 18-24" motivational payments to National Guard and Border Guard personnel, with updated eligibility criteria for combat service (RBC-Ukraina, Apr 1, 12:40 UTC). Ongoing support efforts for POW families (e.g., 80th Air Assault Brigade via Coordination HQ, Apr 1, 12:44 UTC).
    • Russia: Evidence of coercion to sign contracts (alleged 82 MSP audio recording); continued reliance on crowdfunding for basic equipment (vehicles via Colonelcassad, Apr 1, 12:19 UTC); RU MoD maintains high personnel loss claims against UA forces. Internal suppression of anti-war dissent continues (priest fined).
  • Logistics & Resources:
    • Ukraine: Confirmed receipt of €3.5bn EU financial tranche. Significant long-term German military aid (€11bn+) pledged.
    • Russia: Continued reliance on crowdfunding for vehicles (UAZ, Niva). Advertisements for sourcing military goods (drones, gear) from China circulate. Potential economic pressure from reduced oil exports reported (Bloomberg via Dva Mayora, Apr 1, 12:20 UTC).
  • International Context: Germany commits €11bn+ in military aid; EU disburses €3.5bn financial aid. Concerns raised in India regarding potential future US secondary sanctions on Russian oil linked to Trump statements (Bloomberg via Dva Mayora, Apr 1, 12:20 UTC). RU leadership (Putin) discussion on energy strikes moratorium.
Previous (2025-04-01 12:16:43Z)

We only use optional analytics cookies if you allow them. Necessary cookies stay on for sign-in and site security.

Learn more in our Privacy Policy.