Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 22:15 UTC
(Incorporating updates up to 22:03 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. As of 19:00 UTC (Mar 31, UGS), 175 combat clashes occurred. Intensity remains highest on the Pokrovsk Direction (56 attacks). Significant activity persists on the Lyman (26 attacks), Kursk/Belgorod border regions (26 attacks repelled/ongoing per UGS; RU sources report continued heavy fighting, claim >190 UA losses in 24h; RU assessment indicates potential UA preparation for large-scale actions in Sumy Oblast - see below), Toretsk (14 attacks), South Donetsk (Vuhledar area - Increased RU assaults reported last week, 226 attacks repelled per UA TG "Vuhledar"; Recent RU claim of shelter destruction - see below), Novopavlivsk (9 attacks), Kupyansk (9 attacks), Huliaipole (9 attacks), Orikhiv (9 attacks - RU sources claim significant offensive actions and advances in this sector), and Kramatorsk (7 attacks) directions. Multiple clashes remain ongoing.
Russian Strikes & Air Threats (Since start of day - UGS 19:00 UTC & Recent Reports):
1 Missile Strike (UGS 19:00).
73 Aviation Strikes (using 118 KABs) (UGS 19:00).
Approx. 650 Kamikaze Drones deployed (UGS 19:00).
Almost 4,000 shelling attacks on UA positions and settlements (UGS 19:00).
RU Claim (Targeting): RU MoD (20:25 UTC) claims strikes engaged military airfield facilities, workshops, launch sites, ammunition, armament, and supply depots. Claims continued UA strikes on Russian energy facilities despite alleged Kyiv statements to cease.
Civilian Casualties (Updated):
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Russian strike on civilian infrastructure in a frontline community resulted in 1 civilian KIA, 5 WIA (Updated count per OVA/RBC-Ukraina 20:08 UTC). Residential buildings and social facilities damaged/destroyed.
Specific Air/Drone Threats (Recent - RESOLVED):
Threat of air-launched weapons persists for frontline oblasts due to ongoing Russian tactical aviation activity on the eastern direction (UA Air Force, 21:00 UTC). Specific threat warnings for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast were active earlier; air raid alert ended for Zaporizhzhia Oblast (excluding Zaporizhzhia city) at 21:31 UTC.
Shaheds: Currently no Shahed drones detected over Ukraine (UA Air Force/RBC-Ukraina, 21:11 UTC). Previous absence noted as unusual.
Ukrainian Drone Interceptions (RU CLAIM): Governor of Bryansk Oblast (RU) claimed 6 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over the region (19:21 UTC).
Kherson Bombing Confirmation & Claim (Updated): RU sources published video allegedly showing impacts from bombing strikes on Kherson city. Further RU claims specify FAB-500 w/ UMPK strikes on Korabel Island (port area), alleging destruction of a UA FPV drone assembly/launch site, up to 30 UA personnel KIA, and 5 vehicles destroyed (Dva Mayora, 20:05 UTC).
Other RU Strike Claims (UPDATED): Claimed engagement of 147 AFU manpower/hardware concentration areas (MoD Russia, 19:33 UTC). Claim of precision strikes destroying UA fortifications/manpower to aid infantry (Voin DV, 20:03 UTC). NEW CLAIM: RU source (Voin DV, 22:00 UTC) claims UAV operators from 1461st Motor Rifle Regiment (36th CAA) destroyed a Ukrainian forces' shelter on the South Donetsk direction with a direct hit.
Russian Main Efforts & Objectives: Primary offensive axis continues towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure maintained towards Lyman, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, Novopavlivsk, South Donetsk (Vuhledar/Vremivka), Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia - Significant RU claims of advances), and efforts to consolidate control/advance within the Kursk/Belgorod border area. Objectives appear unchanged: minimum goal of full control over annexed oblasts; maximalist goal of capitulation/regime change.
Novopavlivsk Direction / Rozlyv Status: Contested. Strong RU claim of full capture persists, but UGS (19:00 UTC) reports ongoing RU attacks towards Rozlyv.
Pokrovsk Direction / Dnipropetrovsk Border Proximity: RU claim forces are approx. 2-4km from the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border SE of Kotlyarivka remains. UGS confirms intense fighting near Kotlyarivka.
Pokrovsk Direction / Uspenivka: RU source claims UA attempted breakthrough into Uspenivka repulsed, fighting ongoing. UGS confirms intense fighting near Uspenivka.
Kramatorsk Direction / Chasiv Yar (UPDATED): UGS (19:00 UTC) reports 7 RU attacks near Chasiv Yar/Predtechyne repelled. RU claims of advances near Dniprovsky pond/Shevchenko microdistrict persist. Claimed destruction of UA tank and 3 armored vehicles near Chasiv Yar by RU 98th VDV (Colonelcassad, 19:07 UTC). UA 24th Mechanized Brigade reported engaging and eliminating Russian assault troops in Chasiv Yar (Operatyvnyi ZSU video, 21:22 UTC).
Kursk/Belgorod Border Area (UPDATED - RU ASSESSMENT):
UGS (19:00 UTC): 26 RU attacks repelled in Kursk operational zone, 3 clashes ongoing. Heavy fighting near Krasnoyaruzhsky (Demydovka) direction. Russia conducted 24 air strikes (36 KABs) and 211 artillery/MLRS barrages.
RU CLAIM (Heavy Fighting/Counterattacks - Demidovka): Reports of heavy, ongoing fighting (13 days) in Krasnoyaruzhsky district border area, particularly Demidovka (Belgorod Oblast). Claim continued UA attempts to infiltrate; assert RU reinforcements counter-attacking, partially clearing Demidovka (RVvoenkor, 19:58 UTC). Map claims show geolocated RU artillery strikes on UA positions within Demidovka.
RU CLAIM (UA Losses - Kursk Zone, 24h): RU MoD (20:25 UTC) claims neutralization operations ongoing, alleges UA lost over 190 troops, 1 tank, 1 APC, 3 AFVs, 5 vehicles, 2 artillery guns, 1 mortar, 3 UAV CPs, 1 ammo depot.
Resource Needs: RU fundraising appeal for vehicles for forces in Belgorod sector noted (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 21:08 UTC), indicating logistical reliance.
RU ASSESSMENT (Potential UA Offensive - Sumy/Kursk): Russian source (NgP raZVedka, 21:30 UTC) alleges UA concentration of up to 6,000 personnel near Krasnaya Yaruga (Belgorod border) drew RU forces from Kursk. Claims UA preparing for a major offensive push in the Sumy border region, potentially involving elite units (8th SSO Regiment, 78th Air Assault Regiment). Alleges increased UA drone activity targeting RU logistics (Gordeyevka, Viktorovka, Vnezapnoye) using long-range and modified drones (daytime "Baba Yaga" use). Predicts simultaneous UA offensives in Sumy and Belgorod sectors soon. This indicates significant Russian perception of Ukrainian intentions and capabilities in the northern border area.
Toretsk Direction: UGS (19:00 UTC) reports 14 RU attacks, 1 ongoing. DeepState (18:45 UTC) highlights chaotic situation near Toretsk mine, difficulties for UA forces (terrain/drones restrict movement, lack of support, unclear front line, RU numerical parity/superiority). DeepState confirms RU recently occupied Panteleimonivka, attempts advances towards Valentynivka.
South Donetsk Direction (Vuhledar Area - UA Report & RU CLAIM - UPDATED): Tactical Group "Vuhledar" (Operatyvnyi ZSU, 20:31 UTC) reports increased RU assault actions last week (+39), exploiting weather hindering UA drones. Claims 226 attacks repelled, inflicting significant RU losses: 1206 personnel KIA/WIA, 14 tanks, 26 AFVs, 160 vehicles/motorcycles/buggies, 2 UAVs, 24 comms/EW antennas destroyed. NEW RU CLAIM: RU source (Voin DV, 22:00 UTC) claims 1461st MRR UAVs destroyed a UA shelter.
Expanding control zone near Shcherbaki, Mali Shcherbaki, Stepove, Lobkove. Claims UA counterattacks ineffective.
RU 7th VDV advancing North from S. Lobkove and SW from Stepove towards N./Central Lobkove.
Claim capture of key UA strongpoint near Kam'yanske, inflicting losses on retreating UA forces.
Claim pushing UA forces from Nesterianka towards Novoandriivka.
Claim constant RU strikes (Arty/Air/UAV) on Orikhiv, Novoandriivka, Novopavlivka, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka.
Claim destruction of UA tank near Danilivka and hits on UA strongpoints.
Previous RU MoD source video (TASS, 19:05 UTC) claimed failed UA counterattack using M113s.
UA Soldier Capture Claim (RU Source - UPDATED): RU sources (Colonelcassad, 21:06 UTC) claim capture of two UA soldiers from 143rd Brigade who allegedly entered RU positions after being hit by their own unit's FPV drones while attempting unauthorized departure (СОЧ). Russian MoD/TASS (21:27 UTC) released video interviewing alleged captured UA soldiers (mentioning 153rd Brigade), emphasizing poor training and forced mobilization narrative. Potential indicator of unit cohesion issues if true, primarily serves RU propaganda purposes targeting UA morale.
Russian Force Posture & Capabilities (UPDATED):
Conscription: Spring 2025 decree targets 160,000 citizens. Official claims state no SVO deployment, but reports contradict this. RU General Staff official reiterated denial of deployment to SVO zone (TASS, 21:30 UTC).
EW/Counter-Drone (UPDATED): Ongoing adaptation. RU source advised operators to counter alleged UA fiber-optic drone detection systems. NEW CLAIM: RU source (Colonelcassad, 22:03 UTC) claims operators of the 61st Naval Infantry Brigade are using specialized "interceptor drones" to successfully shoot down various Ukrainian UAV models, including reconnaissance (Fury, Leleka, Shark) and strike drones (Baba Yaga, Darts kamikaze). Indicates dedicated Russian counter-UAS efforts and claims of effectiveness against common Ukrainian platforms.
Logistics/Equipment: Fundraising appeals (e.g., vehicles for Marines in Kursk direction) suggest reliance on non-standard channels.
Ukrainian Defensive Posture & Operations:
Maintaining defensive lines, repelling assaults (UGS). Stabilization efforts ongoing. Active defense in Chasiv Yar (24th Bde).
Active defense/counter-actions in Russian border territory acknowledged/assessed by RU sources (e.g., Demidovka, potential Sumy offensive preparations).
Drone Operations: Highly active (e.g., Flying Skull, Ronin, Nemesis, Wormbusters, Kryla OMEGI units hitting RU MT-LB, crossings, personnel). RU sources allege increased sophistication/range in Sumy border area. Subject to RU counter-drone efforts (see above).
Logistics/Equipment Needs: Critical shortages persist, especially FPV drones (Fundraising appeals).
Fortifications Critique: Internal source raised concerns about visibility/vulnerability of some new MoD defenses.
Commendations: UGS commends 31st Mech Bde, 49th Coastal Defense Bde. 24th Mech Bde active in Chasiv Yar.
Internal Security: Report of individuals detained in Lviv with possible explosives (Operatyvnyi ZSU, 20:26 UTC).
Politics/Mobilization: Head of "Servant of the People" faction Arakhamia stated Ukraine is not preparing for elections (TASS, 20:55 UTC). RU sources amplifying controversial statements by Ukrainian figure D. Korchynsky regarding mobilization evaders (Operatsiya Z, 21:55 UTC), potentially aiming to fuel internal divisions and undermine morale.
Unit Cohesion (RU Claims): RU claims regarding capture of 143rd Bde soldiers potentially affected by friendly fire (Colonelcassad, 21:06 UTC). RU propaganda video featuring alleged POWs from 153rd Bde (TASS, 21:27 UTC).
Reported Losses (Various Sources - UPDATED):
UA Claims (Pokrovsk - Mar 31): 382 RU personnel neutralized (233 KIA), 3 tanks dest (+3 dam), 3 BMPs dest (+1 dam), 4 vehicles dest (+1 dam), etc. (UGS 19:00).
UA Claims (South Donetsk - Last Week): 1206 RU personnel KIA/WIA, 14 tanks, 26 AFVs, 160 vehicles etc. dest. (UA TG "Vuhledar", 20:31 UTC).
UA Claims (Overall Past Day - UGS morning): 1230 RU personnel, 4 tanks, 3 BBM, 30 arty sys, etc.
RU Claims (Kursk Zone - Past 24h): >190 UA personnel, 1 tank, 1 APC, 3 AFVs, 5 vehicles, 2 arty, 1 mortar, 3 UAV CPs, 1 ammo depot (RU MoD, 20:25 UTC).
RU Claims (Zaporizhzhia - Recent): UA losses during retreat near Kam'yanske; UA tank destroyed near Danilivka (Voenkor Kotenok, 20:58 UTC).
RU Claims (South Donetsk - NEW): Destruction of a Ukrainian shelter by UAV (Voin DV, 22:00 UTC).
RU Claims (Counter-UAV - NEW): Downed multiple UA UAVs (Fury, Leleka, Shark, Baba Yaga, Darts) using interceptor drones (Colonelcassad, 22:03 UTC).
RU Claims (Other): High UA losses claimed in Rozlyv, Demidovka/Popovka. Failed UA counterattack in Zaporizhzhia. Destruction of tank/AFVs near Chasiv Yar. Destruction of 147 UA concentration areas. Destruction of UA FPV drone facility/personnel on Korabel Island, Kherson. Destruction of UA T-80 tank near Kostiantynivka (Colonelcassad, 20:33 UTC). Capture of 2 UA soldiers (143 Bde) after alleged friendly fire (Colonelcassad, 21:06 UTC). Propaganda video with alleged POWs (153 Bde) (TASS, 21:27 UTC).
Potential Future Operations (UA Assessment / RU Assessment): Expectations persist of potential large-scale Russian offensive (Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia). RU assessment anticipates potential large-scale UA offensive operations in Sumy/Kursk border area.
International Support & Coordination (Updated):
UK-UA Coordination: Zelenskyy-Starmer call coordinating steps; preparing meeting of military reps to discuss preparing contingents (Zelenskiy / Official, 20:11 UTC).
EU Support/Sanctions: G5+ European FMs (incl. UK, FR, DE, IT, PL, ES + EE) stated intent to double aid, considering new sanctions against Russia. Affirmed they "will not accept any peace agreement that would limit Ukraine's military and defence industry or the military presence of partner countries in Ukraine" (Sternenko, 20:38 UTC; Tsaplienko/Reuters, 19:32 UTC).
EU Parliamentarians Visit: Zelenskyy met heads/representatives of partner/EU Parliaments in Bucha, reaffirming accountability stance.
US Diplomatic Stance (Clarified): US State Dept spokesperson Tammy Bruce stated the US administration is working towards a "complete ceasefire in Ukraine and negotiations between the parties for a final and lasting settlement". Acknowledged Russia proposed a "temporary administration" in Ukraine, but stated President Trump did not approve it, reiterating Ukraine is a constitutional democracy whose governance is determined by its Constitution and people. (Operatyvnyi ZSU/RBC-Ukraina, 20:54 UTC). This clarifies earlier TASS report (20:43 UTC).
US/Trump Dynamics: White House: Trump expressed displeasure with statements from Zelenskyy/Putin, working towards peace deal.
India/UK Equipment Transfer Denial: Rosoboronexport denied NYT report alleging HAL transferred UK-origin equipment to Russia (TASS, 20:28 UTC).
Geopolitical Context & Information Operations (Updated):
Arestovych Commentary (RU Amplification): Russian sources amplify video of Arestovych suggesting Ukraine should cede territory now to avoid larger losses later (Alex Parker Returns, 20:18 UTC). Potential info op targeting UA morale/negotiating stance.
NYT Article Analysis (RU Interpretation): RU sources interpret NYT article as confirmation of US proxy war, Pentagon planning UA ops, US providing targeting data, and US viewing conflict as having no clear path to victory post-nuclear risk assessment in Fall 2022 (Colonelcassad, 20:03 UTC).
Mobilization Discourse (RU Amplification - NEW): Russian sources (Operatsiya Z, 21:55 UTC) highlighting controversial comments by Ukrainian figure D. Korchynsky regarding mobilization evaders, likely aiming to exploit societal divisions and potentially impact Ukrainian morale.
Belarus: US soldier reportedly detained after crossing border from Lithuania. Regional tension persists.
Moldova: Diplomatic tensions with Russia continue.
Georgia: Ongoing anti-government protests reported in Tbilisi (ASTRA, 20:10 UTC).
Russia Internal: Arrested General Shamarin may be questioned in another general's bribery case (TASS, 20:51 UTC).
Yemen: Houthis claim destruction of US MQ-9 Reaper UAV (TASS, 21:23 UTC; Voenkor Kotenok 22:06 UTC).
Global Economy: OPEC+ countries begin increasing oil production from April after a year of voluntary cuts (TASS, 21:46 UTC). Indirect relevance to Russian state revenue.
II. Ground Combat Operations Update (Based on UGS 19:00 UTC Mar 31 & supplementary reports up to 22:15 UTC)
Kursk/Belgorod Border Direction (Updated): Intense fighting. UGS: 26 RU attacks repelled, 3 ongoing (Kursk Zone). Heavy fighting near Krasnoyaruzhsky (Demydovka). RU sources claim heavy fighting near Demidovka (Belgorod), allege ongoing UA attempts to breach defenses, claim RU counter-attacks partially cleared settlement (RVvoenkor). RU MoD claims >190 UA personnel KIA/WIA, 1 tank, 1 APC, 3 AFVs etc. destroyed in Kursk zone in 24h. RU logistical needs near Sudzha highlighted by fundraising appeal (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). RU source assesses potential major UA offensive preparations in Sumy/Kursk area.
Kharkiv Direction: 6 RU attacks repelled near Vovchansk (UGS 19:00).
Kupyansk Direction: 9 RU assaults towards Pishchane, etc. 7 repelled, 2 ongoing (UGS 19:00).
Kramatorsk Direction (incl. Chasiv Yar - UPDATED): 7 RU attacks near Chasiv Yar/Predtechyne repelled (UGS 19:00). RU claims destruction of UA tank + 3 AFVs. UA 24th Brigade actively engaging RU assault troops.
Toretsk Direction: High Intensity. 14 RU attacks, 1 ongoing (UGS 19:00). DeepState reports chaotic situation near Toretsk mine, confirms RU occupation of Panteleimonivka, push towards Valentynivka.
Pokrovsk Direction:Highest Intensity (56 Attacks). Main RU focus. 50 attacks repelled, 6 ongoing (UGS 19:00). Significant RU losses claimed by UA. RU claims advance SE of Kotlyarivka; repulsed UA counter-attack in Uspenivka.
Novopavlivsk / Velykonovosilkivske / South Donetsk Directions (Updated): 9 Attacks reported by UGS near Kostiantynopil, Burlatske, Dniproenerhiya, towards Rozlyv. 5 repelled, 4 ongoing (UGS 19:00). Rozlyv status contested (RU claim capture vs UGS reports attacks towards it). Vuhledar Area: UA TG "Vuhledar" reports increased RU assaults last week, 226 repelled, high RU losses claimed. RU Claim (UPDATED): Destruction of UA T-80 tank near Kostiantynivka (Kostyantynopil?) direction (Colonelcassad, 20:33 UTC). NEW RU CLAIM: Destruction of UA shelter by UAV (Voin DV, 22:00 UTC).
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia - UPDATED): UGS (19:00 UTC) reports 9 RU attacks repelled. However, significant RU claims (Voenkor Kotenok, 20:58 UTC) assert major offensive efforts:
RU forces expanding control near Shcherbaki, Mali Shcherbaki, Stepove, Lobkove, repelling UA counterattacks.
RU 7th VDV claimed advances in/around Lobkove.
RU claim capture of key UA strongpoint near Kam'yanske; UA forces pushed from Nesterianka towards Novoandriivka.
Continuous RU strikes reported on Orikhiv, Novoandriivka, Novopavlivka, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka.
RU claim destruction of UA tank near Danilivka.
RU sources claim capture of 2 UA soldiers (143 Bde) near RU positions, allegedly after UA friendly fire incident (Colonelcassad, 21:06 UTC). RU propaganda video features alleged POWs (153 Bde) (TASS, 21:27 UTC).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson - UPDATED): 1 unsuccessful RU assault (UGS 19:00). Positional fighting. UA drone strikes on RU crossings. RU Claim: FAB-500 strikes hit Korabel Island (port area), destroying claimed UA FPV drone facility, causing ~30 KIA, 5 vehicles destroyed (Dva Mayora). Video allegedly shows strikes on Kherson city. NEW RU CLAIM (Counter-UAS): RU 61st Naval Infantry Brigade claims interceptor drone success against UA UAVs (Colonelcassad, 22:03 UTC). Specific location of interceptions not stated, but brigade operates in this theatre.
