Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 04:56 UTC
(Incorporating information up to March 31, 04:56 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. The highest intensity persists along the Pokrovsk Direction. Significant combat activity continues on the Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk directions, the Andriivske direction (Kurakhove area), and across the Kursk/Belgorod border region. (Note: UGS reported 147 clashes as of Mar 30, 19:00 UTC; UGS reported 183 clashes in the 24 hours preceding 06:00 UTC Mar 29).
Russian Main Efforts: Primary offensive focus remains directed towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is observed towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Chasiv Yar. Russian forces maintain efforts to expand combat operations into Sumy Oblast and continue attempts to advance along multiple axes in Donetsk Oblast. Efforts continue to consolidate control and advance within the Kursk border area. Russian sources claim continued advances by the "Vostok" Group of Forces in areas such as Razliv, Vesyoly, Bogatyr, Otradne, and Volnoye Pole (Novopavlivsk/Huliaipole directions).
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Russian MoD released video (Mar 31) showing flag raising at a WWII memorial in Hoholivka (Gogolevka), Kursk Oblast, reinforcing claims of capture amidst significant destruction. Russian VDV elements confirmed involved in Hoholivka operations.
RU CLAIM (NEW - Verification Required): Russian sources (Dva Mayora, Mar 31) claim ongoing "liberation" operations in Huyevo (Kursk Oblast) and Basivka (Sumy Oblast), and anticipate fighting for Oleshnia (Kursk Oblast) near the border.
RU CLAIM (NEW - Verification Required): Russian MoD sources claim Ukrainian forces mined territory in the Sudzha district (Kursk Oblast) with NATO-standard munitions during withdrawal (TASS, Mar 31). Video provided allegedly shows demining operations.
RU claims (Mar 30) control northern Uspenivka; narrative of Sudzha "liberated" persists. Ongoing fighting reported within RU border settlements.
UA Confirmed Advance (ISW, Mar 29 pub): Confirmed UA advances into eastern Popovka (NW Belgorod Oblast). Update (Reuters/Tsaplienko/BBG/ISW): Reports suggest UA forces advanced 3-4 km into Belgorod Oblast, breaching the first RU defense line in the Popovka area.
Pokrovsk Direction:
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Russian MoD confirmed (via Dva Mayora, Mar 31) the liberation of Zaporizhzhia settlement (Donetsk Oblast).
RU CLAIM (NEW - Verification Required): Russian sources claim ongoing fighting near Bohdanivka and advancing towards Troitske (Dva Mayora, Mar 31). Z Komitet map (Mar 29) claimed RU advances near Katerynivka.
UA confirmed (Mar 27) incremental RU advance near Katerynivka.
Toretsk Direction:
RU CLAIM (Reinforced - Verification Required): Following claimed capture of Oleksandropil and Panteleimonivka, Russian sources (Dva Mayora, Mar 31 map/text) claim forces reached the outskirts of Valentynivka and are engaged in heavy fighting for Tarasivka. Map depictions reinforce claimed maneuver SW of Toretsk.
UA confirmed (Mar 30) RU advance near Panteleimonivka. NEW RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Russian sources report successful drone-artillery strikes (2S1 Gvozdika, 2A36 Giatsint-B) targeting a claimed UA temporary deployment point (PVD) and infantry group in Panteleimonivka, coordinated by elements of the 68th Tank Rgt (150th Div) and 346th Spetsnaz Bde. RU source maps (Mar 30) depict RU control E/S of Toretsk. ISW confirmed RU advances near Tsentralna mine (Mar 29 pub).
Novopavlivsk Direction:
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Russian sources (Dva Mayora, Mar 31) claim forces advanced into the center of Razliv. Previous RU claims (Mar 29) of entry into Razliv.
NEW RU CLAIM (Mar 31): "Vostok" Group claims advances and inflicting casualties (>140 KIA/WIA, 3 EW stations lost) on UA forces in areas including Razliv, Vesyoly, Bogatyr, Otradne (Requires Verification). Previous RU claims (Mar 30) near Zaporizhzhia (Donetsk settlement), Preobrazhenka, Bohdanivka, Troitske, Kotlyarivka, Novosilka require ongoing verification. ISW confirmed RU advances near Kurakhove (Mar 29 pub).
Huliaipole Direction:NEW RU CLAIM (Mar 31): "Vostok" Group claims advances and inflicting casualties in areas including Volnoye Pole (Requires Verification). Previous RU claims (Mar 27) of breaking into Vilne Pole.
Andriivske Direction (Kurakhove area) / Chasiv Yar: UA confirmed (Mar 30) RU advance in Rozlyv. Ongoing fighting near Chasiv Yar involving Russian VDV elements (98th Division). ISW confirmed RU advances north of Andriivka (Mar 29 pub).
Lyman Direction: UA confirmed (Mar 30) RU advance near Novoie. Terny previously assessed almost fully RU-occupied. Z Komitet map (Mar 29) claimed RU advances near Makeevka and Novolyubivka. ISW confirms assessed RU advances near Terny (Mar 29 pub).
Kupyansk Direction:
RU CLAIM (NEW - Verification Required): Russian sources (Dva Mayora, Mar 31) claim expansion of bridgeheads north of Kupyansk on the right bank of the Oskil River.
Previous RU claims (Mar 30) of advance S of Dvurichna towards Kondrashivka require verification. RU claimed capture of Krasne Pershe (Kharkiv Oblast) and secured positions near Topoli (Mar 29). UA previously confirmed RU advance near Orlyanske (Mar 27). ISW assessed RU advances east of Oskil River (near Synkivka, Kyslivka, Zahryzove) (Mar 29 pub).
Orikhiv Direction:
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Russian sources (Dva Mayora, Mar 31) report ongoing fighting near Shcherbaky and claim destruction of a UA tank near Novodanylivka. Occupation official Rogov claimed (Mar 29) RU forces advanced inside the village of Lobkove.
Previous RU claims (Mar 30 morning) of Shcherbaky liberation and advances require verification. RU VDV elements (7th Guards Air Assault Division) claimed involved in push from Mali Shcherbaky towards Shcherbaky (Mar 29). ISW confirmed RU advances in fields north of Zherebyanky (Mar 29 pub).
Siversk Direction:
RU CLAIM (NEW - Verification Required): Russian sources (Dva Mayora, Mar 31) claim forces are maneuvering towards Hryhorivka.
Ukrainian Defensive Posture: Ukrainian forces maintain defensive lines, inflicting losses and repelling numerous assaults. Operations focus on degrading Russian offensive capability. Active Ukrainian operations on Russian territory continue to disrupt Russian staging efforts (President Zelenskyy, Mar 29). RU CLAIM (NEW): Russian sources (Dva Mayora, Mar 31) allege Ukraine is reinforcing the Belgorod border direction with elements of the 17th Heavy Mechanized Brigade.
II. Air & Strike Campaign
Tactical Aviation Threat: Threat alert for frontline oblasts cancelled (UA AF, 04:13 UTC). Previous activity noted on southern, northeastern, and eastern axes.
Shahed/Geran UAV Attacks:
Current Activity/Locations: Threat ended across all oblasts (UA AF, 04:13 UTC).
Recent Impacts (Confirmed):
Kharkiv:Multiple explosions confirmed in Kharkiv city overnight. At least six Shahed strikes localized to the Kyivskyi district (Operatyvnyi ZSU/Terekhov, 04:14 UTC), causing significant fires at impact sites. Damage confirmed to glazing and facade of a children's institution, broken windows in adjacent multi-story buildings, and damage to several private vehicles. Emergency services responding. No casualties reported as of 02:20 UTC (Kharkiv OVA). Interceptions reported near Kharkiv (~02:32 UTC, ~02:56 UTC).
Kharkiv (Previous): Previous drone impact confirmed at civilian enterprise in Kyivskyi district (Mar 30, 23:37 UTC). Blast wave damaged nearby apartments, kindergarten, cultural/sports complex. 2 civilians treated for acute stress reaction.
RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Russian sources (Dva Mayora) claim Geran UAVs targeted objectives in Kyiv and Zhytomyr Oblasts.
Confirmed Impact (Recent): Ballistic missile strike reported in Shostka, Sumy Oblast (~22:20 UTC, Mar 30). Kryvyi Rih (Mar 29).
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Use remains high (120 KABs reported by UGS as of 19:00 UTC, Mar 30; 179 KABs reported by UGS in 24hrs prior to 06:00 UTC Mar 29). Threat alert ended (UA AF, 04:13 UTC). Previous launches reported towards Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk border area (03:11 UTC), Donetsk Oblast (01:32 UTC) and Sumy (00:45 UTC). Persistent threat, particularly to northern and eastern border regions.
Naval Missile Threat:ACTIVE.2 Russian Kalibr carriers detected in the Black Sea, capable of launching a total salvo of up to 8 missiles. 3 Russian Kalibr carriers in the Mediterranean Sea, capable of launching a total salvo of up to 26 missiles. No Russian vessels reported in the Azov Sea (Ukrainian Navy via UGS, Mar 31, 06:00 local / 04:00 UTC).
Other Strike Activity (Recent):
Nikopol District, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (NEW - UA Confirmed): Russian forces attacked Nikopol city, Marhanets, Pokrovska, and Myrivska communities overnight (Mar 30/31) using kamikaze drones and artillery. Damage confirmed to an enterprise, administrative building, 2 private houses, and a gas pipeline. No civilian casualties reported (Lysak/Vilkul, Mar 31).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Past 24h): Ukrainian Zaporizhzhia OVA reports 395 Russian strikes on 11 settlements, including 4 air strikes, 255 UAV attacks, 2 MLRS attacks, and 134 artillery strikes. 3 reports of damage to private homes/vehicles, no civilian casualties reported (Mar 31, 04:10 UTC).
UGS reported 1 missile strike, ~750 kamikaze drone attacks, ~4,000 artillery/mortar/MLRS shelling incidents (as of 19:00 UTC, Mar 30).
NEW RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Russian forces (68th Tank Rgt, 346th Spetsnaz Bde, 238th Artillery Bde) claim destruction of a UA temporary deployment point (PVD) and infantry group in Panteleimonivka (Toretsk Direction) using drone-spotted artillery (2S1 Gvozdika, 2A36 Giatsint-B). (Video evidence provided, verification of outcomes needed).
NEW RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Russian MoD ("Vostok" group) claims destruction of a Ukrainian ammunition supply point. (Requires verification).
NEW RU CLAIM/Footage (Mar 31): Russian sources shared footage allegedly showing drone operations (thermal imaging, targeting) by RU 36th Motor Rifle Brigade and 14th Spetsnaz Brigade ("Vostok" group) in the Shakhtarsk direction (likely Novopavlivsk/Vuhledar area). (Propaganda showcasing capabilities). Russian sources (Voin DV) released footage of drone strikes by 140th Gds SAM Bde (29th CAA, Vostok Group) on the South-Donetsk direction (Mar 31).
RU PROPAGANDA (Mar 31): Russian sources circulate images of rockets allegedly marked "For Belgorod" and "For peaceful population".
RU Claims (Older): FPV strike on tank (Novodanylivka), Lancet strike on vehicle (Shcherbynivka), Radar strike (Petrushivka, Sumy), Strike on personnel (up to 170 SBU/GUR/mercenaries). Require verification.
Activity Targeting Russian Territory:
RU CLAIM (Reinforced/Consolidated): Russian MoD claims destruction of 66 Ukrainian UAVs overnight (Mar 31). Claims breakdown: 41 over Bryansk Oblast, 24 over Kaluga Oblast (Kirovsky district), 1 over Kursk Oblast. Bryansk Governor specifically claimed 41 UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. No casualties/damage reported by RU authorities. (Multiple RU sources Mar 31).
RU CLAIM (NEW): Russian FSB claims nearly 190 Ukrainian air attacks (presumably mostly UAVs) were thwarted over occupied Donetsk Oblast (DNR) in the past week (TASS, Mar 31). Video analysis of wreckage shown suggests use of small fixed-wing UAVs, larger types, and potentially improvised munitions.
Ongoing UAV/Artillery pressure reported, particularly in Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts. Missile danger alerts periodically issued (e.g., Bryansk Oblast, Mar 30). RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Dva Mayora reports continued UA attacks impacting civilian areas in Belgorod Oblast (Popovka, Demydovka, Ivanivska Lisytsia, Nadezhivka, Golovchino, Berezovka), claiming injury to a local official in Grayvoronsky district.
III. Ground Combat Operations
(Based on UGS report Mar 30, 19:00 UTC, UGS Mar 29 06:00 UTC, and incorporating recent claims, particularly from RU source 'Dva Mayora' summary Mar 31)
(A) Eastern Front (Donbas)
Pokrovsk Direction:Highest Intensity. Russian MoD confirms liberation of Zaporizhzhia settlement. RU claims fighting near Bohdanivka and towards Troitske. UGS reported persistent attacks (Mar 30) near Oleksandropil, Kalynove, Kotlyne, Udachne, etc. UA confirmed RU advance near Katerynivka (Mar 27).
Toretsk Direction:High Intensity. RU claims advance to outskirts of Valentynivka after taking Oleksandropil/Panteleimonivka; heavy fighting claimed for Tarasivka. Drone/artillery strikes claimed on UA targets within Panteleimonivka. UA confirms RU advance near Panteleimonivka (Mar 30). UGS reported attacks (Mar 30) near Krymske, Toretsk, towards Dyliivka.
Lyman Direction:High Intensity. Attacks near Nadiia, Yampolivka, Kolodiazi; towards Nove, Novomykhailivka (UGS report, Mar 30). UA confirms RU advance near Novoie (Mar 30). Terny assessed almost fully RU-occupied. RU claims advances near Makeevka/Novolyubivka (Mar 29).
Novopavlivsk Direction: RU claims advance into center of Razliv. RU "Vostok" Group claims advances/inflicting casualties near Razliv, Vesyoly, Bogatyr, Otradne. Attacks near Kostyantynopil, towards Rozlyv, Vesele (UGS report, Mar 30).
Kramatorsk Direction (incl. Chasiv Yar & Andriivske Direction): Attacks near Stupochky, towards Bila Hora (UGS report, Mar 30). UA confirms RU advance in Rozlyv (Mar 30). Intense fighting near Chasiv Yar, involves elements of Russian 98th VDV Division.
Siversk Direction: RU claims maneuvers towards Hryhorivka. Clashes near Verkhnokamyanske, Ivano-Darivka (UGS report, Mar 30).
(B) Northeastern Front
Kupyansk Direction: RU claims expansion of bridgeheads N of Kupyansk (right bank Oskil). Assaults repelled near Radkivka, Pishchane, Bohuslavka, etc. (UGS report, Mar 30). KAB strike on Kupyansk center reported (Mar 30). RU claimed capture of Krasne Pershe (Mar 29).
Kharkiv Direction: Assaults reported near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Krasne Pershe (UGS report, Mar 30). Sustained Shahed attack on Kharkiv city overnight (Updated details above: 6 strikes in Kyivskyi district, significant fire, damage to civilian structures).
(C) Southern Front
Huliaipole Direction: RU "Vostok" Group claims advances/inflicting casualties near Volnoye Pole. Attacks repelled near Pryvilne, towards Vilne Pole (UGS report, Mar 30).
Orikhiv Direction: RU claims fighting near Shcherbaky and UA tank destroyed near Novodanylivka. Attacks repelled towards Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove (UGS report, Mar 30). RU claims advances inside Lobkove (Mar 29). Air Alert Ended (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 04:12 UTC). Intense RU strike activity reported (395 total strikes in 24h, incl 255 UAVs) across 11 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Zaporizhzhia OVA, Mar 31).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson / Dnipropetrovsk): Unsuccessful RU attacks towards Sadove (UGS report, Mar 30). Positional fighting. NEW (UA Confirmed): Russian drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol District communities (Nikopol, Marhanets, Pokrovska, Myrivska) overnight caused infrastructure damage (Mar 31).
Intensity: Intense fighting and heavy Russian strikes continue. UGS reported repelling 20 Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast (as of 19:00 UTC, Mar 30).
Specific Locations & Claims:
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Russian MoD confirms capture of Hoholivka (Gogolevka) in Kursk Oblast (Mar 31), provides visual media. Operation involved RU VDV elements.
RU CLAIM (NEW): Russian sources claim ongoing fighting/liberation attempts in Huyevo (Kursk) and Basivka (Sumy). Anticipate fighting for Oleshnia (Kursk).
RU CLAIM (NEW): Russian MoD sources claim UA forces mined territory in Sudzha district (Kursk) with NATO munitions during retreat.
RU claims control northern Uspenivka (Mar 30); Sudzha "liberated" narrative persists. Fighting reported within RU border settlements.
Ballistic missile strike on Shostka (Sumy) reported (Mar 30). RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Iskander strike(s) on Sumy Oblast. Previous UAV threat near Sumy city reported (~02:50 UTC).
RU CLAIM (NEW): UA reinforcing Belgorod border area with elements of 17th Heavy Mech Bde. Continued UA attacks claimed on Belgorod settlements.
IV. Key Developments & Other Factors
Russian Losses (UA Claim): Ukrainian General Staff reported estimated Russian losses for March 30 as 1230 personnel KIA/WIA, 4 tanks, 3 AFVs, 30 artillery systems, 1 AD system, 71 UAVs, 65 vehicles & fuel tanks (Mar 31). Total personnel losses claimed since Feb 24, 2022 exceed 915,000.
Russian Logistics: Persistent reports indicate significant shortfalls. High equipment wear/loss rates noted. NEW: Russian MoD filed lawsuits against Russian Railways (RZhD) for nearly 100 million rubles (TASS, Mar 31), potentially indicating contractual disputes or financial issues impacting military logistics. RU claims destruction of UA EW stations in Vostok AOR (Requires Verification). Evidence of RU using engineer assets (excavator truck "Marusya") in operational areas.
Counter-Drone Tactics: Evidence of RU using drone-deployed nets (Mar 30). RU sources showcase ongoing drone recon/strike ops (thermal, night) via 36th MRB / 14th SpN (Mar 31), 68th Tank Rgt / 346th Spetsnaz Bde / 238th Arty Bde (Mar 31), and 140th Gds SAM Bde (Mar 31). Analysis of downed UAVs claimed by RU FSB over DNR suggests UA employs varied drone types (fixed-wing, larger models) potentially carrying improvised munitions. Russian sources circulate imagery of drones adapted with grenade launchers ("Архангел Спецназа"). UA developing countermeasures against reported new RU Shahed swarm tactics (Bild/Tsaplienko, Mar 29).
Mine Warfare:NEW RU CLAIM: UA forces alleged to be using NATO-standard mines in Kursk Oblast border area (TASS, Mar 31). Russian forces conducting demining operations in Sudzha district (Kursk). Report of camouflaged 'petal' mine variant (PFM-1) via heavy drones (RU source, Mar 30). Requires vigilance.
Political/Diplomatic:
NEW/REINFORCED (Trump/Ceasefire/Rare Earths/NATO): Former US President Trump reiterated claims of progress towards a UA-RU ceasefire deal, mentioned a "psychological deadline," expressed frustration with Putin's recent comments about Zelenskyy, stated Zelenskyy faces "big problems" if he withdraws from a rare earth metals deal, reiterated Ukraine "was never going to be a member of NATO," and stated he "would not want to impose secondary tariffs against Russia" (Reuters, RBC-Ukraina, STERNENKO, Operatyvnyi ZSU, ASTRA Mar 31). (Previous context: President Zelenskyy stated (Mar 28) Ukraine received a draft US proposal on resources requiring study).
NEW (RU Stance): Russian MFA official states Russia categorically rejects the idea of peacekeepers on Ukrainian territory from countries supplying weapons to Kyiv (TASS, Mar 31).
NEW (Trump/Ceasefire Deadline): Former US President Trump reportedly has not set a deadline for seeking Russian agreement on a ceasefire in Ukraine (TASS, Mar 31).
Ukrainian source (RBC-Ukraina citing Axios) reports potential visit by former US President Trump to Saudi Arabia in May, with unnamed Saudi sources allegedly wanting a ceasefire in Ukraine achieved beforehand (Mar 31).
Russian state media (TASS) reports EU has no intention to resume counter-terrorism cooperation with Russia (MFA official statement, Mar 31).
President Zelenskyy (Mar 30) highlighted ongoing daily Russian attacks as rejection of reported US ceasefire proposal.
UK PM Starmer / US President Trump reportedly agreed on need to maintain pressure on Putin (Mar 30).
Finnish President Stubb reportedly proposed unconditional ceasefire by April 20 (Mar 30).
Russian funds for UN contributions reportedly frozen in Gazprombank (Mar 30).
International Support: Next Ramstein meeting April 11. Ongoing deliveries/pledges.
Russian Information Operations:
NEW: Promoting narratives around Trump's statements on ceasefire progress/deadlines, rare earths, NATO, and secondary tariffs, aiming to influence international perceptions and potentially pressure Ukrainian leadership (TASS, Dva Mayora, Dnevnik Desantnika, STERNENKO, ASTRA Mar 31). Amplifying RU MoD claims of destroying 66 UA UAVs overnight (TASS, Dva Mayora, ASTRA, Dnevnik Desantnika Mar 31). Disseminating RU MoD claims/video alleging UA mining Kursk Oblast with NATO munitions (TASS, Mar 31). Circulating imagery of rockets marked "For Belgorod" (Colonelcassad, Mar 31).
Disseminating RU MoD video confirming flag raising in Hoholivka (TASS, Dnevnik Desantnika, Mar 31) to solidify territorial claims. Amplifying RU FSB claims of thwarting large numbers of UA air attacks over DNR (TASS, Mar 31). Promoting narratives of successful offensive actions via summaries (Dva Mayora, Mar 31). Using soldier-generated content (humor/food video, ZONA СВО; flag raising, Colonelcassad; historical figure commemoration, Basurin; animal companionship, Colonelcassad) for morale/propaganda. Promoting statements by MFA official Logvinov asserting EU irrelevance and conditions for Western business return (TASS, Dnevnik Desantnika, Mar 31).
