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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-03-30 17:05:41Z
11 months ago
Previous (2025-03-30 16:57:32Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 30, 2025, 17:05 UTC

(Incorporating information available up to 17:05 UTC)

I. Overall Situation Assessment & Key Developments

  • Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH across multiple axes. Ground combat is concentrated in the Pokrovsk Direction (highest intensity), Lyman Direction, Toretsk Direction, Novopavlivsk Direction, and along the Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod border regions. 104 combat clashes were reported since the start of the day as of 16:00 UTC (Ukrainian General Staff - UGS).
  • Russian Offensive Focus: Primary efforts remain directed towards the Pokrovsk (43 attempts reported by UGS as of 16:00) and Lyman (11 attacks) directions. Significant pressure persists on the Toretsk (9 attacks) and Novopavlivsk (8 attacks) directions. Intense fighting and heavy Russian strikes continue in the Kursk and Belgorod border regions. Russian sources continue to claim gradual advances on the Novopavlivsk direction, tactical gains south of Pokrovsk, near Makiivka/Novoliubivka/Katerynivka (Lyman), and in the Zaporizhzhia (Orikhiv) direction (new map claim released 17:03 UTC). A prior Russian claim of expanding a bridgehead west of the Oskil River (Kupyansk) is contradicted by a confirmed Ukrainian success.
  • Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod): Intense fighting continues. Ukrainian forces repelled 9 Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast with 3 clashes ongoing (UGS 16:00). The Russian MoD claims offensive actions and strikes against Ukrainian forces near Hornal, Huyevo, and Oleshnia (Kursk Oblast) and multiple border settlements in Sumy Oblast. A Russian source claim (WarGonzo, 15:06 UTC) of capturing Sudzha (Kursk Oblast) remains unverified and contradicts official Ukrainian reports. Heavy fighting reported by Russian sources near Demydovka and Popovka (Belgorod Oblast). Confirmed Ukrainian cross-border strikes targeted infrastructure and personnel in Belgorod Oblast. Russian sources (Colonelcassad, 16:41 UTC) released a compilation video claiming destruction of numerous Ukrainian equipment types and personnel by the "Rubikon" group's drones in the Kursk direction.
  • Russian Strike Campaign & Air Threats:
    • High tempo of strikes using Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs), artillery, and FPV/Shahed-type drones continues. Civilian infrastructure remains a frequent target.
    • Ongoing Shahed Attack: Targeting central and eastern Ukraine. Hostile UAVs reported over Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts moving North-West (UA AF 16:54). Threat warnings expanded to Poltava and Donetsk Oblasts (UA AF 16:57). Explosions reported in Dnipro City (RBC-Ukraina 16:58), confirming impacts from the ongoing attack.
    • Civilian Impact: KAB strike on 5-story building in Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast) resulted in 3 civilians WIA (updated figures). Ongoing artillery/FPV strikes in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopol, Synelnykove districts) caused 1 civilian WIA and infrastructure damage. Attacks also reported in Malokaterynivka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). Russian state media film crew reportedly hit by UAV strike in Horlivka (Donetsk Oblast), 2 contused (TASS 16:24, Mash 16:39, RVvoenkor 16:45).
  • Ukrainian Defensive and Offensive Operations: Ukrainian forces maintain defensive lines, repelling numerous assaults. Key activities include counter-battery fire, widespread FPV drone operations (acknowledged by Russian sources as causing significant casualties), EW countermeasures, and cross-border actions.
    • Significant Success: OSUV Khortytsia confirmed the destruction of a Russian heavy mechanized bridge during an attempted crossing of the Oskil River near Dvorichna (Kharkiv Oblast) (Tsaplienko 16:21). This action directly counters Russian efforts to reinforce positions or expand bridgeheads west of the river.
  • Technology & Capabilities:
    • Russian: Continued heavy reliance on FPV and other drones (e.g., "Rubikon" group strikes in Kursk, "Molniya" UAVs in Novopavlivsk). Russian sources advertise increased production and availability of "Gortenzia" 7" and 10" fiber-optic guided drones, claiming resistance to EW, various payloads (incl. RPG rounds, VOGs), and ranges up to 20km (Archangel Spetsnaz 17:02).
    • Ukrainian: Demonstrated effectiveness of FPV drones (Pokrovsk tank kills, Toretsk strikes video, Pokrovsk 59th Bde strikes). Successful destruction of critical Russian bridging equipment confirmed. Report of funds from fallen soldier's family used to purchase drones that destroyed 6 RU recon UAVs (Sternenko 16:10). Launch of electronic system for Military-Medical Commission (VLK) conclusions planned for April 1 (RBC-Ukraina 16:26).
  • Information Environment:
    • Ukrainian Navy denies NYT report on US intelligence role in Moskva sinking.
    • Russian sources leverage NYT report detailing US/NATO intelligence support (Task Force Dragon/Erebus), HIMARS targeting, and USV provision to frame Western control over Ukrainian operations.
    • Russian propaganda highlights alleged Ukrainian targeting of journalists (Horlivka), border gains (Sudzha - unverified), drone successes, and North Korean support.
  • Diplomatic Context: Finnish President Stubb reportedly proposed an April 20th unconditional ceasefire deadline to former US President Trump (Tsaplienko 16:42, RBC-Ukraina 16:57).

II. Ground Combat Operations (Based on UGS 16:00 UTC Report & Other Sources up to 17:05 UTC)

  • Kharkiv Direction: 2 Russian offensive actions near Vovchansk and towards Krasne Pershe (UGS 16:00).
  • Kupyansk Direction:
    • 5 Russian assaults towards Radkivka, Pishchane, Bohuslavka, and near Zahryzove. 2 clashes ongoing (UGS 16:00).
    • UA SUCCESS (Bridge Destruction): OSUV Khortytsia confirmed Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian heavy mechanized bridge during an attempted enemy crossing of the Oskil River near Dvorichna (Tsaplienko 16:21).
    • (Previous RU CLAIM - CONTRADICTED by UA success): Russian sources had claimed expansion of bridgehead on the western bank of the Oskil River.
  • Lyman Direction:
    • High Intensity. 11 Russian attacks near Nadiia, Yampolivka, Kolodiazi, and towards Nove, Novomykhailivka. 6 clashes ongoing (UGS 16:00).
    • RU CLAIM (Advances): Russian sources maintain claims of advances near Makiivka and Novoliubivka, with fighting for control of Katerynivka (Colonelcassad map, 15:48).
  • Siversk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelling 4 Russian attacks near Verkhnokamyanske and Ivano-Darivka (UGS 16:00).
  • Kramatorsk Direction (Incl. Chasiv Yar): Ukrainian forces stopped 2 Russian attempts near Stupochky and towards Bila Hora (UGS 16:00).
  • Toretsk Direction:
    • High Intensity. 9 Russian attacks near Krymske, Toretsk, and towards Dyliivka. 2 clashes ongoing (UGS 16:00).
    • UA drone units ("Predators") reported actively destroying RU targets (Operativnyi ZSU 16:18 video).
  • Pokrovsk Direction:
    • HIGHEST INTENSITY. Main Russian effort. 43 Russian attempts reported by UGS since morning; 31 stopped, intense fighting continues (UGS 16:00).
    • UA forces confirmed destruction of 2 RU tanks via FPV drones (RBC-Ukraina 14:26). Video compilation (RVvoenkor 16:12) shows RU Group "Center" strikes on UA equipment/positions (Mar 29). UA 59th Brigade "Stepovi Khyzhaky" drone strikes reported destroying RU equipment/personnel (Butusov 16:23).
    • RU CLAIM (Map): Russian source maps claim unspecified tactical advances south of Pokrovsk near Kotlyne, Shevchenko, and Pischane (Z Komitet, 15:25 UTC).
  • Novopavlivsk Direction (South Donetsk):
    • 8 Russian attacks near Kostyantynopil and towards Rozlyv. 4 clashes ongoing (UGS 16:00).
    • RU CLAIM (Advance): Claim gradual advance towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border (Dva Mayora 14:34). RU sources (Voin DV, 16:30 UTC) show "Molniya" type UAVs of 40th Naval Infantry Brigade destroying structures.
  • Huliaipole Direction: 2 Russian attacks near Pryvilne and towards Vilne Pole (UGS 16:00). Russian airstrikes hit Novodarivka, Novopil, Zelene Pole, Huliaipole, Zaliznychne (UGS 16:00).
  • Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia):
    • 4 Russian attacks towards Mali Shcherbaky and Stepove. 1 clash ongoing (UGS 16:00).
    • Russian forces conducted 2 attacks (likely shelling/drone) on Malokaterynivka, damaging infrastructure (Zaporizhzhia OVA 15:58).
    • RU CLAIM (Advances - Updated): Russian sources/maps continue to claim advances near Mali Shcherbaky, Shcherbaky, and Stepove (Z Komitet 14:17). New map claim (Colonelcassad 17:03) visually depicts alleged Russian advances in this direction. RU confirms receiving donated Mavic 3T/Classic drones for operations here (Dva Mayora 16:11).
  • Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): 2 unsuccessful Russian attacks towards Sadove (UGS 16:00). Positional fighting continues.
Previous (2025-03-30 16:57:32Z)

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