Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 30, 2025, 16:25 UTC
(Incorporating information available up to 16:25 UTC)
I. Overall Situation Assessment & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH across multiple axes. Ground combat is concentrated in the Pokrovsk Direction (highest intensity), Lyman Direction, Toretsk Direction, Novopavlivsk Direction, and along the Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod border regions. 104 combat clashes were reported since the start of the day as of 16:00 UTC (Ukrainian General Staff - UGS).
Russian Offensive Focus: Primary efforts remain directed towards the Pokrovsk (43 attempts since morning) and Lyman (11 attacks) directions. Significant pressure also persists on the Toretsk (9 attacks) and Novopavlivsk (8 attacks) directions. Intense fighting and heavy Russian strikes continue in the Kursk and Belgorod border regions. Russian sources claim gradual advances on the Novopavlivsk direction and allege tactical gains south of Pokrovsk, near Makiivka/Novoliubivka/Katerynivka (Lyman), and expansion of a bridgehead west of the Oskil River (Kupyansk).
Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod): Intense fighting continues. Ukrainian forces repelled 9 Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast with 3 ongoing clashes (UGS 16:00). The Russian MoD claims offensive actions and strikes against Ukrainian forces near Hornal, Huyevo, and Oleshnia (Kursk Oblast) and multiple border settlements in Sumy Oblast. The Russian source claim (WarGonzo, 15:06 UTC) of capturing Sudzha (Kursk Oblast) remains unverified and contradicts official Ukrainian reports. Heavy fighting reported by Russian sources near Demydovka and Popovka (Belgorod Oblast). Confirmed Ukrainian cross-border strikes targeted infrastructure and personnel in Belgorod Oblast.
Russian Strike Campaign: High tempo of strikes using Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs), artillery, and FPV/Shahed-type drones continues. Civilian infrastructure remains a frequent target, particularly in Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast) and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopol, Synelnykove districts). Attacks also reported in Malokaterynivka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast).
Ukrainian Defensive and Offensive Operations: Ukrainian forces maintain defensive lines, repelling numerous assaults. Key activities include counter-battery fire, widespread FPV drone operations (Russian sources claim these cause 70% of their casualties), EW countermeasures, and cross-border actions. A significant success reported in destroying a Russian heavy mechanized bridge during an attempted crossing of the Oskil River near Dvorichna (Kharkiv Oblast).
Information Environment:
Moskva Sinking: Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Pletenchuk officially denied the NYT report claiming US intelligence provision for the Moskva sinking, asserting the operation was planned and executed solely by Ukrainian forces using open-source satellite data (Sentinel).
Western Support Disclosure (RU Perspective): Russian sources heavily publicized the NYT article detailing US/NATO intelligence support, coordination (Task Force Dragon/Erebus), HIMARS targeting control, and provision of USV technology prototypes for Black Sea operations, framing it as confirmation of Western control and responsibility for attacks on Russian territory.
Propaganda: Russian sources highlighted the potential posthumous award for a deceased war correspondent, continued narratives blaming Ukraine for civilian harm, amplified draft evasion issues (Tisa river body), and showcased drone deliveries/strikes. North Korean support for Russia reiterated by RU sources. Anti-Ukraine/anti-weapon supply protests in Amsterdam reported by Russian state media.
II. Ground Combat Operations (Based on UGS 16:00 UTC Report & Other Sources up to 16:25 UTC)
Kharkiv Direction:
2 Russian offensive actions conducted near Vovchansk and towards Krasne Pershe (UGS 16:00).
Kupyansk Direction:
5 Russian assaults towards Radkivka, Pishchane, Bohuslavka, and near Zahryzove. 2 clashes ongoing (UGS 16:00).
UA SUCCESS (Bridge Destruction): OSUV Khortytsia confirmed Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian heavy mechanized bridge during an attempted enemy crossing of the Oskil River near Dvorichna. (Tsaplienko 16:21).
RU CLAIM (Bridgehead Expansion - CONTRADICTED by UA success): Russian source map (Z Komitet, 15:46) claims expansion of bridgehead on the western bank of the Oskil River with advances towards Doroshovka and near Zapadne.
(Older RU Claim - UNVERIFIED): Capture of Krasne Pershe (right bank Oskil) claimed Mar 29.
Lyman Direction:
High Intensity. 11 Russian attacks near Nadiia, Yampolivka, Kolodiazi, and towards Nove, Novomykhailivka. 6 clashes ongoing (UGS 16:00).
RU CLAIM (Advances): Russian source map (Colonelcassad, 15:48) claims advances near Makiivka and Novoliubivka, with fighting initiated for control of Katerynivka.
(Older ISW Confirmation): Confirmed RU advances near Terny (Mar 29). Assessed previously (DeepState Mar 27) as almost fully occupied by RU.
Siversk Direction:
Ukrainian forces repelling 4 Russian attacks near Verkhnokamyanske and Ivano-Darivka (UGS 16:00).
Kramatorsk Direction (Incl. Chasiv Yar):
Ukrainian forces stopped 2 Russian attempts near Stupochky and towards Bila Hora (UGS 16:00).
Toretsk Direction:
High Intensity. 9 Russian attacks near Krymske, Toretsk, and towards Dyliivka. 2 clashes ongoing (UGS 16:00).
UA drone units ("Predators") reported actively destroying RU targets in the area (Operativnyi ZSU 16:18 video).
(Older ISW Confirmation): Confirmed RU advances near the Tsentralna mine (Mar 29). Previously UA claimed 20 RU PoWs captured by Azov (Mar 27).
Pokrovsk Direction:
HIGHEST INTENSITY. Main Russian effort. 43 Russian attempts since morning reported by UGS. Ukrainian forces stopped 31 attacks; intense fighting continues (UGS 16:00).
UA forces confirmed destruction of 2 RU tanks during repelled assault via FPV drones (RBC-Ukraina 14:26). Video compilation (RVvoenkor 16:12) shows RU Group "Center" strikes on UA equipment/positions Mar 29. UA 59th Brigade drone strikes reported (Butusov 16:23).
RU CLAIM (Tactical Action): Russian sources claim disruption of a Ukrainian troop rotation near Novooleksandrivka via air/drone strike (WarGonzo 15:27 Video).
RU CLAIM (Map): Russian source maps (Z Komitet, 15:25 UTC) claim unspecified tactical situation changes/advances south of Pokrovsk near Kotlyne, Shevchenko, and Pischane.
Novopavlivsk Direction (South Donetsk):
8 Russian attacks near Kostyantynopil and towards Rozlyv. 4 clashes ongoing (UGS 16:00).
RU CLAIM (Advance): Claim gradual advance towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border (Dva Mayora 14:34). RU claims destruction of UA Starlink terminals in this direction (Mar 28).
(Older ISW Confirmation): Confirmed RU advances near Kurakhove and north of Andriivka (Mar 29).
Huliaipole Direction:
2 Russian attacks near Pryvilne and towards Vilne Pole (UGS 16:00).
4 Russian attacks towards Mali Shcherbaky and Stepove. 1 clash ongoing (UGS 16:00).
Russian forces conducted 2 attacks (likely shelling/drone) on Malokaterynivka, damaging a private house and vehicle (Zaporizhzhia OVA 15:58).
RU CLAIM (Contradicts UGS): Russian sources/maps claim advances near Mali Shcherbaky, Shcherbaky, and Stepove (Z Komitet 14:17). RU claimed liberation of Malye Shcherbaki (Mar 28). RU sources confirm receiving donated Mavic drones for operations in this direction (Dva Mayora 16:11).
(Older ISW Confirmation): Confirmed RU advances north of Zherebyanky (Mar 29). RU previously claimed advance East of Kamyanske to Shcherbaky (Mar 27).
Air raid alert declared across Zaporizhzhia Oblast (OVA 16:01). Threat of attack UAVs confirmed (OVA 16:04).
Hostile UAVs reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (UA AF 16:02).
Dnipro City: Alert declared. Hostile UAVs approaching from the southeast (UA AF 16:25).
Russian Strike Activity: High tempo continues.
Kharkiv Oblast: KAB strike hit 5-story residential building in central Kupyansk. 53-year-old woman WIA, people possibly under rubble. Car ignited, 5 other vehicles damaged. This follows an earlier FAB-250 strike damaging houses/cemetery (Syniehubov 16:03, Operativnyi ZSU 16:07).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Ongoing strikes reported. Nikopol District (Nikopol city, Marhanets, Pokrovsk, Chervonohryhorivka gminas) hit by FPV drones and heavy artillery; 1 civilian WIA (41 M), damage to infrastructure, residential buildings (5-story, 5 private), commercial properties (shop, gym), educational facility, vehicles (Lysak 15:30). Synelnykove District (Novopavlivsk, Velykomykhailivka, Mezhyva gminas) hit by KABs; damage to residential buildings (multi-apartment, private), medical facility (Lysak 15:30). Aftermath of Mar 29 ballistic strike on Kryvyi Rih detailed (9 WIA, residential damage) (Vilkul 15:43).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 2 RU attacks reported on Malokaterynivka, damaging private house and car (OVA 15:58).
Donetsk Oblast: GTRK "Donetsk" film crew reportedly hit by UAV strike in Horlivka (TASS 16:24).
Crimea: Russian MoD claims 3 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Crimea between 16:50-17:20 Moscow time (approx. 13:50-14:20 UTC) (Dnevnik Desantnika 15:34, TASS 15:37).
Ukrainian Drone Operations: Active FPV drone use confirmed (e.g., Pokrovsk tank kills, Toretsk strikes video, Donetsk Oblast strikes video). Russian sources claim high impact (70% casualties) and allege Russian EW/counter-drone deficiencies (Butusov Plus 15:38). Report of funds from mother of fallen soldier used to purchase drones that destroyed 6 RU recon UAVs (Sternenko 16:10).
IV. Border Operations (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy Oblasts)
RU MoD Claims (Mar 30): Group "North" conducted offensive actions, hitting UA units near Hornal, Huyevo, Oleshnia. Air/arty strikes reported on these locations + Sumy Oblast border towns. Claimed >160 UA personnel losses, 1 BBM, 6 vehicles, 1 quad, 4 UAV CPs destroyed in 24h. Cumulative loss claims appear highly inflated.
RU CLAIM (UNVERIFIED): Capture of Sudzha claimed (WarGonzo 15:06). This contradicts UGS reports.
Russian air/artillery strikes continue at high intensity (RU MoD reports ongoing strikes).
Belgorod Oblast (RU):
Intense fighting reported by Russian sources near Demydovka and Popovka (Krasnoyaruzhsky district), with claims of RU counter-attacks (RVvoenkor 15:15, Mar 28).
Ukrainian Strikes Confirmed (Belgorod Gov via RVvoenkor 15:40):
Shelling hit farm in Nadezhevka (Krasnoyaruzhsky dist.), destroying hangar, damaging structures/tractors.
UAV strike in Ivanovskaya Lisitsa (Grayvoronsky dist.) injured an official, destroyed garage/car, damaged buildings/vehicles.
UAV attack damaged car in Golovchino (Grayvoronsky dist.).
UAV drop damaged roof in Beryozovka (Borisovsky dist.).
Sumy Oblast (UA): Cross-border shelling and airstrikes hit settlements (UGS 16:00, RU MoD claims).
V. Other Significant Updates
Ukrainian Capabilities & Support:
Significant military aid package delivered by Kryvyi Rih authorities to 27 military units, including pickups, various drones (night capable), EW systems, thermal sights, generators, and equipment (Vilkul 15:43).
Reports highlight effectiveness of UA drone operations (RU source: 70% RU casualties; UA videos of strikes; successful fundraising).
OSUV Khortytsia confirms destruction of RU heavy mechanized bridge near Dvorichna.
Civilian Impact:
Casualties: Kupyansk (1 WIA), Nikopol District (1 WIA), **Mal
