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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-03-30 10:27:43Z
11 months ago
Previous (2025-03-30 09:57:39Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 30, 2025, 10:26 UTC

Recent Updates (Since 09:56 UTC)

  • Russian Ground Advance Claim (Zaporizhzhia village - Reinforced): Multiple Russian sources (MoD, TASS, RVvoenkor, WarGonzo, Kotsnews, MoD RU [Eng], Poddubny, Colonelcassad) claim the capture of the settlement Zaporizhzhia (Donetsk People's Republic). Kotsnews clarifies this is a small village in Pokrovsk Raion, near Sribne, approx. 7km from the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border. RVvoenkor (10:24 UTC) released video purportedly showing artillery/drone strikes during the capture. RU sources suggest this enables a push towards Bohdanivka, Troitske, and Orekhovo to reach the Dnipropetrovsk border. (Requires verification, location confirmation, and impact assessment).
  • Significant Russian Claim (Strike Casualties - Reinforced): Russian MoD (via TASS, RVvoenkor, MoD RU [Eng], Basurin 10:24 UTC) claims a missile strike eliminated up to 170 personnel from Ukrainian SBU and Special Operations Forces (SOF) units, including foreign mercenaries. (High claim, requires verification).
  • Air Threats & Activity (UPDATED):
    • UA Air Force reports ongoing launches of Russian Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) towards border areas of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts (09:28 UTC). Air raid alerts remain active in communities of Zaporizhzhia Oblast (excluding Zaporizhzhia city) (09:30 UTC).
    • UA Air Force confirms Russian tactical aviation activity on the southeastern and northeastern directions, warning of air-launched weapons threat for frontline oblasts (09:30 UTC, 10:24 UTC). Zaporizhzhia OVA specifically warns of tactical aviation threat (09:33 UTC).
    • UGS (via Liveuamap, 09:58 UTC) reports RU airstrikes over the past day targeted Mykhaylivske, Naumivka, Stepok, Prokhody, Petrushivka, Uhroyidy, Krasnopillya, Myropilske (Sumy); Slatyne (Kharkiv); Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka, Oleksandropil, Sukhyy Yar, Poltavka, Kozatske, Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk, Chunyshyne, Hryshyne, Novooleksandrivka, Novopavlivka, Zelenyy Hay, Piddubne, Zelene Pole, Novopil (Donetsk); Hulyaypole (Zaporizhzhia).
    • Ballistic missile threat ended (UA Air Force, 10:01 UTC).
  • Russian Strike Claims (Kharkiv/Donetsk - UPDATED):
    • Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika, 09:54 UTC) claim strikes against: Zolochiv (admin building); Bohodukhiv (training center/drone workshop); Kharkiv City (military hospital, ammo/repair/drone assembly sites, rail hub). (Requires verification).
    • RU sources (Narodnaya Militsiya DNR, 10:00 UTC) claim Lancet drone destroyed a UA Kozak armored vehicle near Shcherbynivka (Toretsk direction). (Requires verification).
    • RU sources (WarGonzo, 10:15 UTC) claim FPV drone destroyed a UA Humvee near Sribne (Pokrovsk direction). (Requires verification).
  • Ukrainian Strike Impact (Kursk Oblast, RU - NEW): ASTRA (10:01 UTC) reports a confirmed UA KAB strike on March 26 hit a school building used by the Russian military in Kondratovka, Belovsky District, Kursk Oblast (approx. 5km from border). Resulted in 1 Russian soldier KIA, 1 WIA. Building heavily damaged.
  • Ground Combat Update (Kursk Border - NEW): RU sources (Kotsnews, 10:12 UTC) claim ongoing fighting within Huyevo, state civilians remain present. Claim RU 22nd Regiment entered from the east after surrounding strongpoints were cleared.
  • Ground Combat Update (Novopavlivsk - NEW): Detailed RU assessment (Rybar, 10:01 UTC) claims gradual RU advance towards Dnipropetrovsk border despite UA counterattacks. Specific claims include: heavy fighting in Udachne (initial gains pushed back); secured heights west of Solene; highly contested/destroyed Uspenivka; contested Nadezhdynka (UA counterattacks near western edge); capture of Zaporizhzhia village enables push to eastern edge of Bohdanivka; RU forces advanced >5km wide front SE from Zaporizhzhia village (from Slavyanka area towards T-05-15 highway) in last 1.5 months. (Requires verification).
  • Kharkiv Military Hospital Strike Aftermath (NEW): Tsaplienko (10:19 UTC) confirms no casualties resulted from the overnight Shahed strike on the Military Medical Clinical Center (Northern Region). Building requires urgent repairs; appeal issued for building material donations.
  • Russian MoD Claims (Daily Briefing Summary - Reinforced via TASS, 09:29 UTC): Claims downing 78 UA UAVs, 2 JDAM bombs; >240 UA losses ("West"); >140 UA losses ("East"); up to 65 UA losses ("Dnieper").
  • Reported Covert Action (Moscow - Reinforced via Tsaplienko, 09:27 UTC): Reports of Aurus Senat vehicle explosion near FSB building on Mar 28. (Requires verification).
  • Alleged US-Ukraine Strategic Friction (Reinforced / IO - via RVvoenkor citing NYT, 09:53 UTC): Amplification of reports alleging US involvement/disagreements over planning/operations/mobilization. (Information Operation element likely).
  • Russian POW Capture Claim (Kharkiv - Reinforced via Colonelcassad, 09:46 UTC): Claim capture of UA POWs during alleged liberation of Krasne Pershe (Kharkiv Oblast). (Propaganda element, requires verification).
  • Russian Logistics/Morale Concerns (Reinforced): RU sources (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 09:36 UTC) echo concerns about complacency impact on aid flow.

I. Overall Situation & Combat Intensity

  • Combat Intensity: High. 223 combat engagements reported across the front over the past 24 hours (UGS, Mar 30, 05:00 UTC). UGS reports (via Liveuamap, 09:58 UTC) confirm high clash counts on major axes matching earlier reports. Intensity remains elevated, particularly in the East (Pokrovsk).
  • Russian Strikes (Past 24h - UGS): 1 missile strike, 91 aviation strikes (using 153 KABs), deployment of 2,745 kamikaze drones, and over 6,000 shelling attacks (184 from MLRS). Colonelcassad provided detailed timeline of claimed strikes. Russian MoD claims strike eliminating up to 170 SBU/SOF personnel. RU sources detail specific claimed strikes in Kharkiv, Toretsk, Pokrovsk directions (See Recent Updates).
  • Primary Russian Focus: The Pokrovsk Direction remains the area of highest intensity, with 93 Russian offensive actions repelled (UGS, Mar 30 morning). RU sources claim capture of Zaporizhzhia village in this direction.
  • Other Active Fronts (Attacks Past 24h - UGS): Lyman (23), Toretsk (19), Novopavlivsk (15), Kramatorsk (13), Huliaipole (9), Kupyansk (6), Kharkiv (4), Siversk (3), Orikhiv (2), Prydniprovsky (2).
  • Southern Front Activity (Past 24h - SDF South): ~260 Russian shelling incidents (~1120 rounds), 340 kamikaze drone strikes, >230 UAV munition drops, 8 KAB strikes, ~44 NAR strikes reported. Ukrainian forces continue fire missions.
  • Russian Offensive Assessment:
    • Independent analysis (ISW, Mar 30) noted intensified Russian offensive operations but judged they lacked tactically significant successes (prior to latest RU claims re: Zaporizhzhia settlement).
    • Russian sources (Rybar, WarGonzo, Mar 30; Kotsnews 09:53 UTC; Poddubny 10:04 UTC) emphasize ongoing offensive pressure, claim capture of Zaporizhzhia settlement (DNR). Rybar (10:01 UTC) assesses gradual RU advances on the Novopavlivsk direction towards the Dnipropetrovsk border despite UA counterattacks. Acknowledge heavy fighting and Ukrainian defensive capabilities.
    • Logistics/Morale: RU sources continue to report commander concerns about reduced civilian aid due to complacency, stressing ongoing needs. Fundraising appeals persist.
  • Ukrainian Actions (Past 24h - UGS/SDF South/Other):
    • Ukrainian aviation, rocket troops, and artillery targeted 5 Russian personnel/equipment concentration areas and 1 command post (UGS).
    • Southern Defense Forces inflicted significant losses (See Section V).
    • FPV drone units continue targeting RU assets. 3rd Assault Brigade ("PASKUDA GROUP") released compilation video (Butusov Plus, 10:13 UTC) claiming destruction of RU BTR, tank, BBM, UAZ van, VAT, LAT, and infantry via FPV drones. Footage released (via Butusov Plus, Operativnyi ZSU 09:41 UTC) from Russian perspective shows extensive destroyed Russian equipment along a road ("road of death"), attributed to Ukrainian drone strikes.
    • Ukrainian Border Guard unit ("Feniks" RUBpAK) reported disrupting RU assault preparation in Serebryansky Forest (Luhansk), claiming destruction of 1 MT-LB + 4 armored vehicles (Tsaplienko 09:24 UTC). Contrast with RU claims of targeting UA infantry in same area (Colonelcassad 10:10 UTC).
    • Ukrainian 34th National Guard Regiment reports downing 1 Russian Merlin-VR, 2 Orlan, and 1 Zala UAVs (Sternenko, 09:20 UTC).
    • Air Command "East" demonstrated ongoing air defense operations.
    • Partisan Activity (Kherson Oblast - GUR/RBC-Ukraina/Operatyvnyi ZSU/Vanyok/Tsaplienko, 08:36-09:59 UTC): Resistance movement confirmed destroying a Russian military truck with EW complex ("Lorandit" suspected) on night of March 29. Video/photos released.
  • Northern Border: No signs of Russian offensive group formation detected in Volyn/Polissia (UGS). Persistent shelling and localized clashes along Sumy/Kharkiv border. Evacuations ongoing from Sumy border communities due to intense Russian shelling (Tsaplienko 10:21 UTC).
  • Civilian Impact (Major Attacks - UPDATED):
    • Kharkiv: Overnight drone/missile attack resulted in 2 KIA (67M, 66F), 35 WIA (incl. 5 children). Military hospital hit, confirmed no casualties inside hospital (Tsaplienko 10:19 UTC), but building requires urgent repair. Extensive civilian infrastructure damage.
    • Kryvyi Rih: 9 WIA after ballistic missile strike on residential area.
    • Cherkasy & Kirovohrad Oblasts: Overnight drone attacks caused debris/fires.
    • Poltava Oblast: Overnight drone debris damaged house, camp building, power line.
    • Rodynske (Donetsk): RU FPV drone hit Nova Poshta truck Mar 29, driver WIA.
    • Sumy Oblast Border: Intense Russian shelling forcing civilian evacuations (Tsaplienko 10:21 UTC).
  • Mobilization/Social Issues: RU sources continue highlighting alleged UA evasion attempts. Ukrainian POW interview details RU recruitment practices. Kryvyi Rih support office for military families opened. UA units appeal for funds. Reports alleging US pressure on UA mobilization age persist (IO).

II. Air, Missile, Drone & Naval Activity

  • Overnight Attack Summary (Mar 29 20:00 - Mar 30 09:00 UTC - UA Air Force / ASTRA - CONFIRMED):
    • Launch Details: 1 Ballistic Missile (Rostov Oblast), 111 UAVs (Shahed/imitator) from Russia/Crimea.
    • Air Defense Results: 65 Shahed/other UAVs destroyed. 35 imitators lost track. SDF South destroyed 7 Shaheds.
    • Impacted Oblasts: Kharkiv, Sumy, Odesa, Donetsk, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Poltava.
  • Threat Status (Updates as of 10:26 UTC):
    • Ballistic Missile Threat: ENDED (UA Air Force, 10:01 UTC).
    • RU Tactical Aviation (NEW): Active on southeastern and northeastern directions; threat of air-launched weapons for frontline oblasts persists (UA Air Force, 09:30, 10:24 UTC).
    • KABs: Persistent threat, launches confirmed towards Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts border areas (UA Air Force, 09:28 UTC). 153 KABs used across Ukraine in past day (UGS). Air alert active in relevant Zaporizhzhia communities.
  • Recent Strikes & Interceptions:
    • Kharkiv (Mar 29/30 Attacks - UPDATED): Mass Shahed/missile attack. UGS confirmed hit on Military Hospital; no casualties reported within hospital (Tsaplienko 10:19 UTC), building requires urgent repair. Civilian Casualties: 2 KIA, 35 WIA (incl. 5 children). Extensive damage. RU sources claim additional specific strikes (See Recent Updates).
    • Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk): Ballistic missile hit residential area. 9 civilians WIA.
    • Cherkasy & Kirovohrad Oblasts (Overnight Mar 29/30): Drone attacks, debris fall, fires.
    • Poltava Oblast (Overnight Mar 29/30): Drone debris damage, no casualties.
    • Nikopol (Dnipropetrovsk): Grad MLRS strike overnight. Damage, no casualties.
    • Kharkiv Oblast (Other - Past 24h): Damage from shelling/strikes in Tsyrkuny, Kupyansk, Slatyne, Borova, Solonytsivka. RU claims strikes on Zolochiv, Bohodukhiv.
    • Rodynske (Donetsk): RU FPV hit Nova Poshta truck, driver WIA.
    • Shcherbynivka (Donetsk - NEW RU Claim): Lancet drone destroyed UA Kozak vehicle (Narodnaya Militsiya DNR, 10:00 UTC).
    • Sribne (Donetsk - NEW RU Claim): FPV drone destroyed UA Humvee (WarGonzo, 10:15 UTC).
    • Kondratovka (Kursk RU - NEW UA Strike Impact): Mar 26 UA KAB strike on school used by RU military caused 1 RU KIA, 1 WIA (ASTRA, 10:01 UTC).
    • Claimed Significant RU Strike (Reinforced): RU MoD claims missile strike eliminated up to 170 SBU/SOF personnel/mercenaries. (Requires verification).
    • Ukrainian Air Defense (Past Day - UPDATED): Total 111 RU op-tactical UAVs neutralized (UGS). 65 Shaheds destroyed overnight (UA Air Force). UA 34th NGU Regt downed Merlin-VR, 2x Orlan, 1x Zala UAVs.
    • Russian Claims (UA Interceptions - Past 24h - UPDATED): RU MoD claims 78 UA UAVs and 2 JDAM bombs downed.
  • Russian Air Activity (Locations - NEW via UGS/Liveuamap): Airstrikes reported targeting settlements in Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts over the past day.

III. Border Operations (Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod)

  • Ukrainian Actions (Kursk Zone): Defense Forces stopped 31 Russian attacks in the past day (UGS). Operations on Russian territory continue.
    • Strike Impact (Kondratovka - NEW): Confirmed UA KAB strike on Mar 26 hit school used by RU military in Kondratovka (Kursk Oblast, 5km from border), resulting in 1 RU KIA, 1 WIA (ASTRA 10:01 UTC).
    • Use of US Equipment Allegation (IO): Reports claiming UA used US tech without permission in Kursk persist (Tsaplienko/RVvoenkor via NYT).
    • Visual confirmation (RBC-Ukraina map Mar 29/30) suggested reduced UA control area, indicating RU pressure despite repelled attacks.
  • Russian Activity & Claims (Kursk Zone - UPDATED):
    • Conducted 18 air strikes (23 KABs), 265 shelling attacks (UGS).
    • Huyevo Area (RU CLAIM - UPDATED): Fighting ongoing within Huyevo settlement; civilians reportedly still present. RU 22nd Regt claimed to have entered from east after clearing surrounding strongpoints (Kotsnews 10:12 UTC). RU source claimed UA reinforcing area, defending stubbornly (Dnevnik Desantnika). Fierce fighting locations previously claimed: Huyevo, near Oleshnia, Basovka.
    • Strongpoint/Territory Claims (RU CLAIM): Previous claims included capture of UA strongpoint (VDV), liberation near MAPP Sudzha (Rybar), control of MAPP Sudzha checkpoint.
    • Claimed UA Losses (RU CLAIM): High claims persist (>190 personnel, equipment). (Requires verification).
    • Alleged UA Atrocities/Looting Claims (RU CLAIM - IO): Persistent claims from RU SK / milblog
Previous (2025-03-30 09:57:39Z)

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