Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 29, 2025, 20:56 UTC
(Incorporating information up to March 29, 20:56 UTC)
I. Overall Situation & Combat Intensity
Combat Intensity: High. 198 combat engagements reported across the front as of 22:00 local time (19:00 UTC), March 29 (UGS). This represents an increase from the 143 reported at 16:00 UTC. Overall intensity remains elevated, consistent with recent days. Russian forces conducted 1 missile strike, 79 aviation strikes (using 135 KABs), deployed approximately 1,000 kamikaze drones, and executed over 4,500 shelling attacks against Ukrainian positions and populated areas since the beginning of the day (UGS).
Primary Russian Focus: The Pokrovsk Direction remains the main axis of Russian ground offensive efforts, experiencing the highest combat intensity (73 Russian attempts to break through reported by UGS). Other highly contested directions include Lyman (23 attacks), Toretsk (18 attacks), Novopavlivsk (15 attacks), Kramatorsk (13 clashes), Kupyansk (6 assaults), and the Kursk/Sumy border areas (31 attacks repelled by UA forces operating in Kursk Oblast).
Ukrainian Border Operations: President Zelenskyy confirmed ongoing Ukrainian active operations on Russian territory prevent Russian forces from staging significant offensive actions towards Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Ukrainian forces acknowledged operating from Kursk region southwards. UGS reports Ukrainian units repelled 31 Russian attacks within the operational zone in Kursk Oblast today. Russian forces in Kursk conducted 17 air strikes (22 KABs) and 254 artillery barrages (incl. 8 MLRS) against UA positions and settlements.
Russian commander (Apty Alaudinov via TASS) claims Russian forces are advancing in Sumy Oblast, preparing a "bridgehead for a push." (RU Claim)
Environmental Factors: A significant dust storm continues to impact southern, central, and western oblasts with high winds (15-20 m/s), potentially degrading air operations (ISR, strike, transport), ground mobility, and visibility. Poor road conditions due to mud near the Line of Contact (LoC) significantly restrict vehicle mobility.
Potential Russian Offensive Preparations: Assessments vary (mid-late summer vs. end of spring). Russian sources continue reporting observation of Ukrainian force concentration near Bryansk Oblast border.
Civilian Impact (UPDATED): Russian strikes continue to cause significant civilian casualties and damage infrastructure.
Kharkiv City (Ongoing Shahed Attack Aftermath):
Impacts confirmed at at least 6 locations across Shevchenkivskyi and Kholodnohirskyi districts.
Casualty figures updated: 1 civilian KIA, 19 WIA (including 2 teenagers, 16-year-olds). Ten individuals hospitalized. One person reported trapped under rubble, rescue operation ongoing (as of 20:07 UTC).
Damaged structures include a shopping center, multi-story residential buildings, a medical facility (including the Military Hospital), an office building, private homes, cars, and garages. Fires reported at multiple locations.
UGS confirms deliberate Shahed strike on the Kharkiv Military Hospital, damaging the building and nearby residential houses. Preliminary reports indicate casualties among military personnel undergoing treatment. This constitutes a violation of international humanitarian law.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Mar 29): Kryvyi Rih (9 WIA from morning ballistic missile); Synelnykove District (2 WIA from kamikaze drones); Nikopol District (infrastructure damage from drones/artillery).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Mar 29): Polohy District (damage to private houses).
Dnipro City (Mar 28 Strike Aftermath): Total casualties updated to 25 WIA (9 hospitalized, 2 critical). Civilian targeting confirmed.
Energy Infrastructure: The threat of large-scale Russian strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure remains high. Zaporizhzhia Oblast grid sustains daily damage. Russian MoD accuses Ukraine of continued attacks on energy infrastructure in Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts.
II. Air, Missile & Drone Activity
Ongoing Shahed/Geran Attack (UPDATED):
Multiple groups entered via Sumy Oblast earlier.
One group transited Chernihiv Oblast, approached Chernihiv outskirts, reported moving towards Kyiv Oblast (19:42 UTC). Air defense active in Kyiv Oblast (20:42 UTC).
UAVs reported near Nizhyn and Pryluky (Chernihiv Oblast).
Several groups moved from Sumy towards Kharkiv Oblast. Hostile UAVs confirmed over Kharkiv city (from 18:45 UTC). Multiple explosions and impacts confirmed (see Civilian Impact). Air alerts remain active.
Part of the Shahed group from Sumy Oblast diverted towards Poltava Oblast, heading towards Myrhorod (19:09 UTC) and Poltava city.
Additional Shahed groups detected moving from Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (19:18 UTC). Reported heading towards Kirovohrad Oblast via Dnipropetrovsk (20:12 UTC).
New groups entered Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast (20:16 UTC).
UAV group reported in Samaryvskyi district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading towards Poltava Oblast.
UAVs reported heading towards Kharkiv and Chuhuiv.
Air alerts active in Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy Oblasts due to UAV threat (as of 20:27 UTC).
Russian Air Activity: Persistent Russian tactical aviation activity observed on northeastern and southeastern axes. Confirmed KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast. UGS reports 79 Russian air strikes (135 KABs) across the front today. Specific strikes noted on Slavutych (Kharkiv Dir.), Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Oleksandropil, Sukhyi Yar, Poltavka, Kozatske, Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk, Chunyshyne, Hryshyne, Novooleksandrivka, Novopavlivka (Pokrovsk Dir.), Zelenyi Hai, Piddubne (Novopavlivsk Dir.), Huliaipole, Novopil, Zelene Pole (Huliaipole Dir.).
Russian Strike Claims & Impacts (Verify Where Noted):
RU MoD Daily Claim (Mar 29): Claimed liberation of Panteleimonivka (Donetsk) and Shcherbaki (Zaporizhzhia). Claimed ongoing operations in Kursk Oblast caused UA >190 personnel losses, equipment destruction (2 IFV, 1 AFV, 8 vehicles, 1 artillery, 3 mortars, 6 UAV CPs, 1 ammo depot). Claimed Geran-2 UAV hit on UA 80th Air Assault Bde temporary position in Sumy Oblast. (RU Claims)
RU Claim (Toretsk Direction): Claimed BM-21 Grad strike destroyed UA ammo transport vehicle near Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), causing secondary detonations. (RU Claim/Video)
RU Claim (Kharkiv): Video shared claiming Geran detonation. Sources claim change in Geran tactics to massed, multi-directional strikes converging on specific targets (citing Odesa, Dnipro, Kharkiv). (RU Claim)
RU Claim (Kursk): Claimed Spetsnaz strike targeting Ukrainian forces concentration linked to cross-border operations near Demydovka area (Mar 29 footage). Claimed capture of mockups of M777 howitzers in Kursk Oblast. (RU Claim - Mockups suggest potential UA deception)
Alleged Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Territory:
RU MoD continues to claim Ukrainian UAV/HIMARS attacks targeted energy infrastructure in Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts.
Ukrainian Drone Development & Activity:
GUR Experimental Anti-Drone System: Successful test interception of two Shaheds during Mar 29 night attack confirmed. Production scaling planned.
Operational Drone Strikes: UA forces documented destruction of RU personnel using motorcycles. Pilots of 2nd Mech Bn, 30th OMBR shown hunting RU Mavic drones with custom drone equipped with shotgun.
Russian Drone Development & Tactics:
Tactical Evolution Claim: RU sources claim shift in Geran/Shahed tactics to massed, multi-directional strikes. (RU Claim)
New FPV Aircraft Claim: RU sources claim use of fiber-optic guided FPV "KVN" drone to strike UA personnel on ATV. (RU Claim/Video)
NATO Anti-KAB Initiative: Results announced, winning concept uses AI for early detection/ID. Other concepts included acoustic arrays, FPV swarms, EW.
UXO Clearance: UA sappers active in Kryvyi Rih District.
Russian Air Defence Activity (Kherson): Video released allegedly showing RU Strela-10 SAM system engaging a UA drone. (RU Claim/Video)
III. Frontline Developments by Direction
Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border Operations (UPDATED):
Ukrainian Stance & Operations: DPSU denies Russian claims of border breakthrough. UGS reports 31 RU attacks repelled in Kursk Oblast operational zone today; intense RU air/artillery continues. Zelenskyy confirms UA active operations deter RU advances into Sumy/Kharkiv.
Russian Claims (Kursk RU): Persist in claiming advances near border settlements (Hoholivka, MAPP Sudzha, Oleshnia, Huyevo, Russkoye Porechnoye, Pogrebki). Claim capture of UA M777 mockups.
Russian Assessment (Kursk/Sumy Border): Claim RU advances in Sumy Oblast preparing bridgehead (Alaudinov). Note increased UA long-range FPV use. Claim RU strikes target UA border fortification construction.
Russian Claims (Belgorod RU): Claim advances near Popovka/Demydovka. Claimed Spetsnaz strike targeting UA forces near Demydovka.
Kharkiv Direction: UGS reports UA forces stopped 2 RU attacks near Vovchansk and towards Kamyanka; 1 engagement ongoing. RU air strike on Slatyne.
Kupyansk Direction (UPDATED): High Intensity. UGS reports 6 RU assaults towards Pishchane, Petropavlivka, and near Zahryzove. 5 attacks repelled, 1 ongoing.
Lyman Direction (UPDATED): High Intensity. UGS reports 23 Russian attacks near Nadiia, Yampolivka, Kolodyazi, Torske, and towards Nove, Olhivka, Novomykhailivka. 5 engagements ongoing. RU pressing towards Yampolivka.
Siversk Direction: UGS reports 3 RU assaults near Ivano-Darivka and Pereizne. 2 repelled, 1 ongoing.
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar) (UPDATED): UGS reports 13 combat engagements today towards Maiske, Oleksandro-Shultyne, Predtechyne, Bila Hora, near Chasiv Yar, Stupochky, and Kurdyumivka.
RU Claimed Repelled UA Attack: Russian sources claim VDV forces (98th Division) repelled a UA assault towards Chasiv Yar (morning Mar 29), destroying 1 tank and 5 armored vehicles of the UA 24th Brigade. (RU Claim/Video)
Toretsk Direction (UPDATED): High Intensity. UGS reports 18 Russian attacks repelled today. Main RU effort near Krymske, Toretsk, and towards Dyliivka.
RU claimed Grad strike on UA ammo transport near Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk). (RU Claim/Video)
RU MoD claimed liberation of Panteleimonivka. (RU Claim)
Pokrovsk Direction (UPDATED):HIGHEST INTENSITY. Primary RU focus. UGS reports 73 Russian attempts to break through UA defenses today near Novotoretske, Panteleimonivka, Oleksandropil, Vodiane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novoserhiivka, Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka, Sribne, Andriivka, and towards Kotlyarivka. 4 engagements ongoing.
Significant RU Losses Claimed (UGS): 193 RU personnel neutralized (174 KIA) on this direction today. Equipment destroyed: 5 vehicles, 3 UAV control antennas, 1 motorcycle, 1 ATV, 1 artillery gun, 1 mortar, 1 EW station, 3 SATCOM terminals, 2 generators, 1 Supercam recon UAV, 1 UAV control point. Damaged: 1 tank, 1 vehicle, 2 dugouts, 1 MLRS.
RU air strikes on multiple settlements including Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Oleksandropil, Pokrovsk.
Novopavlivsk Direction (South Donetsk / Vremivka) (UPDATED): High Intensity. UGS reports 15 Russian attacks successfully repelled near Kostyantynopil, Skudne, and towards Rozlyv. RU air strikes on Zelenyi Hai and Piddubne.
Huliaipole Direction (UPDATED): UGS reports 9 Russian attacks near Pryvilne, Novosilka, and towards Novopil. RU air strikes on Huliaipole, Novopil, Zelene Pole.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia) (UPDATED): UGS reports 2 Russian attacks near Kam'yanske and Lobkove.
RU Friendly Fire Incident Claim: UA 72nd Brigade sources claim RU forces mistakenly engaged their own positions near Novoandriivka. (UA Claim/Video)
RU MoD claimed liberation of Shcherbaki. (RU Claim)
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): UGS reports 2 unsuccessful Russian assaults towards Sadove and Prydniprovske. Positional fighting continues. Anecdotal video from RU perspective shows difficult conditions.
IV. Technological & Other Military Developments
Ukrainian Space Capability Development: MoD established Directorate of Space Policy aiming for space forces, national defense satellites by 2030, enhanced ISR/EW. Russian sources deride this initiative.
Ukrainian Personnel (UPDATED):
59th Brigade (Unmanned Systems Forces): Officially joined "Contract 18-24" recruitment program, transforming from motorized infantry to drone-assault focus. Emphasizes robotics to minimize human risk. Offers significant financial incentives (1M UAH bonus, up to 120k UAH/month + combat pay) for 18-24 year olds in specific roles.
Units commended by UGS (Mar 29): 101st Separate Territorial Defense Brigade, 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade, 34th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade for holding against superior forces. Previously commended: 35th Marines (Pokrovsk), 47th Mech, SSO, 225th Assault Regt.
Russian Tactical Issues (UPDATED): UA 72nd Brigade video alleges RU friendly fire incident near Novoandriivka (Zaporizhzhia). Previous incidents/reports cited poor command, training, equipment, morale, use of convicts, difficult conditions.
Alleged Russian War Crimes: UGS formally accuses Russia of war crime for the deliberate Shahed strike on Kharkiv Military Hospital. Previous allegations include execution of POWs/civilians (Rusich unit video).
Russian Internal Information Environment: Crowdfunding efforts persist (drones, batteries, armor), indicating equipment shortfalls. Reports of soldier morale posts emphasizing support from home.
Security/Counter-Intelligence: Alleged lawyer/TCC misconduct case circulating internally in Ukraine, potential impact on public trust/mobilization.
V. Political & Economic Context
US-Ukraine Economic/Resource Agreement Talks: Ongoing discussions, potential linkage to US control over resources/reconstruction funds. UA seeking clarifications/changes.
International Reaction & Support: Zelenskyy calls for strong reaction to Shahed attacks. Poland's Operational Commander suggests potential return to mandatory military service to build reserve force (citing Finnish model), due to perceived threat from Russia. (Requires Verification)
EU Alignment: Ukraine achieved 100% alignment with EU foreign policy decisions in early 2025.
Syria: President Assad announced formation of new government cabinet. (Geopolitical context, potential Russian ally stability)
Turkey: Reports of ongoing protests against Erdogan, internet disruptions, blocking of Rutube. (Geopolitical context, potential regional instability)
UAE: Sentencing of individuals related to killing of Israeli national sparks online reactions. (Geopolitical context, information environment)
