Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 29, 2025, 19:26 UTC
(Incorporating information up to March 29, 19:26 UTC)
I. Overall Situation & Combat Intensity
Combat Intensity: High. 143 combat engagements reported across the front as of 16:00 UTC, March 29 (UGS). Intensity remains elevated, consistent with recent days reporting over 200 daily Russian assault actions (Mar 25-28).
Primary Russian Focus: The Pokrovsk Direction remains the main axis of Russian ground offensive efforts, experiencing the highest combat intensity, approaching levels seen in late Jan 2025. Other highly contested directions include Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretsk, Vremivka (South Donetsk), and the Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy border areas.
Ukrainian Border Operations: President Zelenskyy confirmed ongoing Ukrainian activity on Russian territory prevents Russian forces from entering Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. This strategy aims to disrupt RU logistics and staging.
Environmental Factors: A significant dust storm continues to impact southern, central, and western oblasts with high winds (15-20 m/s), potentially degrading air operations (ISR, strike, transport), ground mobility, and visibility.
Potential Russian Offensive Preparations: Assessments on the timeline for a potential major Russian offensive vary. Ukrainian Rada Security Committee Secretary Kostyenko estimates mid-late summer (July/August), while President Zelenskyy previously indicated potential readiness by the end of spring. German BND intelligence previously suggested Russia is preparing for potential large-scale conventional war with NATO by end of decade. Russian sources continue to report observing Ukrainian force concentration near the Bryansk Oblast border.
Civilian Impact: Russian strikes continue to cause civilian casualties and damage infrastructure.
Kharkiv City (Ongoing): Ongoing Shahed attack causing explosions and casualties. Confirmed impacts in Shevchenkivskyi (2 WIA) and Kholodnohirskyi (0 WIA) districts. At least three explosions reported, including in the city center.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Mar 29): Kryvyi Rih (9 WIA from morning ballistic missile); Synelnykove District (2 WIA from kamikaze drones); Nikopol District (infrastructure damage from drones/artillery).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Mar 29): Polohy District (damage to private houses).
Dnipro City (Mar 28 Strike Aftermath): Total casualties updated to 25 WIA (9 hospitalized, 2 critical). Confirmed civilian targeting.
Energy Infrastructure: Following the Mar 28 Sudzha GIS strike and Russia abandoning the alleged energy moratorium, the threat of large-scale Russian strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure remains high. Zaporizhzhia Oblast grid continues to sustain daily damage from shelling despite temporary stability from weather/solar (Mar 28).
II. Air, Missile & Drone Activity
Ongoing Shahed/Geran Attack (UPDATED):
Multiple groups entered via Sumy Oblast earlier.
One group transited towards Chernihiv Oblast (18:25 UTC), approaching Chernihiv outskirts (19:15 UTC).
Several groups moved from Sumy towards Kharkiv Oblast (18:32 UTC).
UAVs detected heading towards Kharkiv city from the north (18:37 UTC). Warnings issued. Hostile UAVs confirmed over Kharkiv city (18:45 UTC).
Confirmed explosions in Kharkiv city (18:46 - 19:18 UTC). Impacts confirmed in Shevchenkivskyi district (2 civilians WIA) and Kholodnohirskyi district (no casualties). Attack ongoing.
Part of the Shahed group from Sumy Oblast diverted towards Poltava Oblast (18:46 UTC), heading towards Myrhorod (19:09 UTC).
Additional Shahed groups detected moving from Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (19:18 UTC).
Russian Air Activity: Persistent Russian tactical aviation activity observed on northeastern and southeastern axes. Confirmed KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast. Previous day (Mar 27) saw 74 RU aviation strikes (109 KABs).
Recent Russian Strike Claims & Impacts (Verify Where Noted):
Alleged Geran/Shahed UAV strikes targeting Zolotonosha (Cherkasy), Vinnytsia, Korosten (Zhytomyr), Starokostiantyniv area (Khmelnytskyi) overnight/morning Mar 29 (RU Sources).
Significant RU Claim (Dnipropetrovsk): Alleged strike targeting the HQ of the "Dnipro" Battalion and Command Post of the 356th Battalion in Dnipropetrovsk city. Claims include significant damage, casualties (6 KIA, ~12 WIA), vehicle/server destruction. (Confirmed RU Claim, Requires Verification)
Significant RU Claim (Sumy - Chernechchyna): Alleged strike on Ukrainian command base in "Slavna" cottage park. Claims casualties (5 KIA, 8 WIA). (Confirmed RU Claim, Requires Verification - Corroborated by multiple RU sources)
RU Claim (Sumy - Basy): RU MoD claimed Geran-2 UAVs hit temporary position of UA 80th Air Assault Bde battalion. (Confirmed RU Claim - Corroborated by multiple RU sources).
RU Claim (Sumy - Bilopillia): Alleged strike on warehouses storing engineering equipment for fortification construction. (Dnevnik Desantnika 17:29 UTC).
RU MoD continues to claim Ukrainian UAV/HIMARS attacks targeted energy infrastructure in Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts (Mar 28), detailing alleged damage including Sudzha Gas Measuring Station destruction. (RU MoD Report 16:53 UTC).
Significant coordinated UA UAV deep strikes reported overnight Mar 27/28, with RU MoD claiming 78 UAVs downed over 8 regions (incl. Voronezh, Saratov, Kursk, Belgorod). Impacts/interceptions reported near Engels airfield and oil refinery in Saratov Oblast.
Ukrainian Drone Development & Activity:
GUR Experimental Anti-Drone System: GUR revealed testing of a developmental "drone-vs-drone" system (joint UA/international partners), claiming successful interception of two consecutive Shahed-type UAVs during the Mar 29 night attack. Production to be scaled. (Tsaplienko 17:10 UTC, RBC-Ukraina 18:24 UTC).
Operational Drone Strikes:
Pokrovsk Direction: UA "Flying Skull" unit documented strike eliminating RU soldier. (Sternenko 16:26 UTC). UA "Apachi" unit FPV strikes documented. (Sternenko 17:58 UTC). UA "Ochi ta Zhalo" (Madyar) unit claims 201 targets hit, 96 RU KIA on Donbas front (Mar 28). (Butusov Plus 18:51 UTC).
Motorcycle Units: UA forces documented destruction of RU personnel using motorcycles. (Butusov Plus 17:22 UTC).
Tactical Success Example (Mar 27): UA forces documented repelling two consecutive RU assaults using drones, artillery, and exploiting RU tactical failures, including alleged friendly fire. (Butusov Plus 18:59 UTC).
Russian Drone Development & Tactics:
Tactical Evolution Claim: RU sources (Rybar 16:50 UTC) claim a shift in Geran/Shahed tactics to massed, multi-directional strikes converging on specific targets to overwhelm local air defenses (citing Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipro examples). (Requires independent verification).
New FPV Aircraft Claim: RU sources claim development of "Klyuch-Fortuna" fixed-wing FPV drone with 50km range. (Voin DV / RIA Novosti 18:03 UTC).
Drone Tournament: RU "Stalin's Falcons" group announced "Drone-Con" tournament (Apr 11-13) focusing on FPV piloting, WiFi setup, and drone strategy, indicating efforts to foster drone expertise. (Alex Parker Returns 19:10 UTC).
Claimed Drone Successes: RU sources claim drone operators destroyed UA T-80BV near Stupochky (Konstantinovka), destroyed UA transport, 2 tanks, and observation camera (unspecified location). (Colonelcassad 18:47 UTC, Arkhangel Spetsnaza 19:10 UTC). RU Spetsnaz unit "Vega" video claims destruction of UA BBMs, positions, comms, heavy drones near Pokrovsk. (RVvoenkor 18:26 UTC).
NATO Anti-KAB Initiative:
NATO Innovation Challenge ("Counter glide bombs") results announced. Winning concept (French team "Alta Ares"): AI-based system for early detection, ID, and decision support using computer vision/ML on visual/acoustic data. Other concepts included acoustic arrays, drone interceptors (FPV swarms), and EW (GNSS spoofing, GLONASS targeting, microwave). Some EW concepts reportedly reduced KAB hit rates in combat tests. (DeepState 18:17 UTC, Operatyvnyi ZSU 19:11 UTC).
UXO Clearance: UA sappers destroyed remnants of hostile UAV (Sofiyivska community) and modern AS-35 projectile (Zelenodolska community) in Kryvyi Rih District recently. (Vilkul 17:34 UTC).
III. Frontline Developments by Direction
Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border Operations (UPDATED):
Ukrainian Stance: DPSU denies Russian claims of border breakthrough and capture of Veselivka (Sumy). Confirms RU small group incursions towards Novenke/Zhuravka (Sumy), stating they are intercepted near/across border. UGS reports 17 RU attacks repelled in Kursk Oblast (Mar 29); 2 ongoing. Intense RU air/artillery continues. (Tsaplienko 16:43 UTC). President Zelenskyy states UA activity prevents RU entry into Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts. (Zelenskyy 18:33 UTC).
Russian Claims (Kursk RU):
Claim elements of 106th VDV cleared Hoholivka (VDV flag raised at memorial claimed), MAPP Sudzha border crossing, and are assaulting Oleshnia (RU). Persist in claiming Veselovka (Sumy). (Colonelcassad 16:48, 17:43 UTC; NgP raZVedka 17:41 UTC; Dnevnik Desantnika 18:27 UTC). MAPP Sudzha capture previously confirmed (Mar 28).
Claim advances in Huyevo (Kursk) and destruction of UA forces refusing surrender nearby. Claim clearing ops near Russkoye Porechnoye. (NgP raZVedka 17:41 UTC, Colonelcassad 16:48 UTC). Previous claims (Mar 28) of RU forces entering northern Huyevo and liberation of Gogolevka.
Footage released showing aftermath, including casualties, in "liberated" Pogrebki (Kursk Oblast). (Colonelcassad 18:14 UTC).
Russian Assessment (Kursk/Sumy Border):
Claim no new UA ground incursions into Kursk Oblast (past 24h). (NgP raZVedka 17:41 UTC).
Note increased UA use of longer-range FPV drones targeting RU logistics. (NgP raZVedka 17:41 UTC).
Claim detection of new, effective UA systems for locating RU drone launch positions, forcing RU repositioning. (NgP raZVedka 17:41 UTC).
Russian Claims (Belgorod RU): Claim forces secured eastern Demydovka (RU) but acknowledge continued UA presence. Claim advances/success in Popovka and Demydovka areas. Claimed Spetsnaz strike in Demydovka area. (RVvoenkor 17:34 UTC; Dnevnik Desantnika 18:27 UTC). Heavy fighting previously reported in Popovka (contested). Previous claims (Mar 28) of repelled UA assaults near Demidovka/Popovka and meeting engagements.
RU Claimed Advance: Russian sources claim light motorized infantry attack penetrated Uspenivka, dismounted under fire, advanced 400m within settlement to western part. Geolocation provided. (Slivochny Kapriz 18:52 UTC - Requires Verification). Previous RU claims (Mar 28) of advances towards Kotlyarivka, Bohdanivka, Pishchane.
Active UA/RU drone operations reported. UA unit "Ochi ta Zhalo" claims 96 RU KIA in Donbas (Mar 28). (Butusov Plus 18:51 UTC). RU Spetsnaz unit "Vega" active in destroying UA equipment. (RVvoenkor 18:26 UTC).
President Zelenskyy commended 35th Separate Marine Brigade for effectiveness on this direction. (Zelenskyy 18:33 UTC).
Significant RU air strikes persist. Heavy fighting previously reported in Tarasivka.
Chasiv Yar / Kramatorsk Direction (UPDATED):
Ongoing RU storming actions within/flanks of Chasiv Yar reported previously, but no major LoC changes claimed recently.
New UA Tactical Marking: RU sources report sighting new UA tactical marking (3 upward arrows in square) on UA 24th OMBr vehicles near Chasiv Yar. RU sources speculate possible connection to future offensive plans towards DNR. (Arkhangel Spetsnaza 18:20 UTC, Colonelcassad 18:32 UTC).
RU VDV claimed downing UA heavy "Baba Yaga" drone near Chasiv Yar (Mar 28).
Kupyansk Direction (UPDATED):
High combat intensity continues (UGS). UA forces repelled significant RU assault (Mar 27).
RU Claimed Advances (UPDATED): Russian sources claim liberation of Krasne Pershe and advances near Kamianka and Topoli. (Z Komitet 18:50 UTC - Requires Verification). Further RU claim of liberation of Orlyanske and significant advance towards Kupyansk from the east. (RVvoenkor 19:00 UTC - Requires Verification). Previous RU claims (Mar 28) of expanded control near Novolyubivka. UA advance near Orlyanske confirmed (Mar 27).
Lyman Direction: High combat intensity continues (UGS). Significant RU effort. Terny largely assessed as RU-occupied previously, RU pressing towards Yampolivka (Mar 27). Previous RU claims (Mar 28) of advance near Nove, entry into Katerynivka, advances W of Mirne, S of Yampolivka, near Novoliubivka-Kolodezi.
Toretsk Direction: High combat intensity continues (UGS). Major RU effort. Urban fighting previously reported near Panteleimonivka. Previous RU claims (Mar 28) of tactical improvements near Druzhba, Krymske, Panteleimonivka, Aleksandropol, Tarasovka; claimed pushing UA forces from Panteleimonivka. RU advance near Panteleimonivka confirmed (Mar 27).
Konstantinovka Direction (UPDATED):
RU Claimed UA Loss: Russian sources claim drone operators of 6th MotRifle Div destroyed a Ukrainian T-80BV tank near Stupochky. (Colonelcassad 18:47 UTC - Requires Verification).
Velykonovosilkivske / Novopavlivka Directions (South Donetsk / Vremivka): High Intensity. Previous RU claims (Mar 28) of destroying UA Starlink terminals, continued advances towards Komar, Otradne, Bogatyr; footholds/consolidation in Volne Pole, Vesele, Razliv. Fierce fighting near Konstantinopol, Alekseyevka-Andreevka.
Vuhledar Direction: Russian sources shared footage showing extensive destruction in Vuhledar (late March 2025), stating major reconstruction not started. (Colonelcassad 17:51 UTC).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Orikhiv Direction): Previous RU MoD claim (Mar 28) of liberation of Malye Shcherbaki; other RU claims of advances in Stepove, Lobkove. RU claimed bomb strikes NW of Novoandriivka (Mar 28). RU claimed storming Shcherbaky (Mar 28).
Kherson Direction (Left Bank): Positional fighting. Ukrainian source released testimony of captured RU soldier (80th Arctic MR Bde) alleging poor command, abuse, corruption, and use of convicts in the unit. (Butusov Plus 18:08 UTC). Previous RU claims (Mar 28) of using aviation against UA positions on right bank.
IV. Technological & Other Military Developments
Ukrainian Space Capability Development: Ukraine's MoD established Directorate of Space Policy. Aims to become primary customer for space tech, potentially establish dedicated space forces, acquire national defense satellites by 2030, enhance early warning/space situational awareness. Deputy Defence Minister stated Ukraine is moving towards establishing space forces. (Operatyvnyi ZSU 17:04 UTC, RBC-Ukraine 17:48, 18:03 UTC). RU sources mock this development. (Dva Mayora 18:59 UTC).
Ukrainian Personnel: First female recruit joined under the new "18-24" contract mechanism, assigned to 72nd Brigade. (RBC-Ukraina 18:47 UTC). Repatriation/body exchange occurred Mar 28 (909 UA bodies returned).
Russian Active Protection System Claim: RU sources claim Arena APS updated to counter vertical threats (e.g., top-attack munitions, drones). (Alex Parker Returns 18:19 UTC).
Russian Tactical Issues: Ukrainian sources released video (Mar 27 battle) purporting to show RU friendly fire incident during a failed assault, highlighting potential coordination/morale issues. (Butusov Plus 18:59 UTC). Anecdotal evidence from captured RU soldiers (Mar 28) cited poor training, faulty equipment, use of convicts.
Alleged Russian War Crimes: Ukrainian sources highlighted a video allegedly posted by the commander of RU "Rusich" unit (42nd Div recon battalion) showing Russian soldiers executing POWs/civilians and kidnapping children, presented as recruitment material. (Butusov Plus 19:23 UTC - Requires Independent Verification, Significant Allegation).
Russian Strategic Assessment (via Biletsky): Commander of UA 3rd Assault Corps assesses RU strategy as attrition ("thousand cuts") aiming to exhaust UA forces and force collapse/unfavorable terms. (RVvoenkor 16:30 UTC).
Russian Internal Information Environment: Reports of infighting/criticism among RU milbloggers regarding battlefield performance, leadership (Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson retreats; Kursk border situation), and portrayal of soldiers (e.g., dispute between 'Razvedos'/'Rusich' channels). Includes calls for investigations into alleged 'discreditation'. (Alex Parker Returns 17:26, 17:36, 18:31 UTC).
Claimed Foreign Fighter KIA: Russian sources claim killing of Italian mercenary Yuri Previtali fighting for Ukraine. (TASS 18:52 UTC - Requires Verification).
Security/Counter-Intelligence: Russian sources claim discovery and removal of illegally installed cameras directed at military objects in Sevastopol. (Dnevnik Desantnika 18:27 UTC).
V. Political & Economic Context
US-Ukraine Economic/Resource Agreement Talks: Discussions continue on draft agreement potentially involving UA mineral resources. Ukraine seeking clarifications/changes: increased US investment guarantees, assurance against conflict with EU accession goals, clarification aid is not debt. Strong reservations reported from UA officials. US (Trump admin) reportedly demanding UA sign deal giving Washington control over key economic projects, list required within 45 days. Russian sources claim Ukraine preparing $500B counter-claim. (Operatyvnyi ZSU 16:55 UTC, TASS 16:58 UTC, RVvoenkor 17:17 UTC, RBC-Ukraine/WP/Bloomberg 17:55, 18:14 UTC, Tsaplienko 18:10 UTC, Voin DV / WSJ 18:03 UTC, Dnevnik Desantnika 18:27 UTC). US SecState Rubio previously walked back specific peace timelines (Mar 28).
International Reaction & Support:
President Zelenskyy called for a strong reaction, particularly from the US, following recent Shahed attacks, stating Russia must be compelled to peace. (Zelenskyy 18:33 UTC, RBC-Ukraina 18:43 UTC).
France announced €2bn defense aid package (Mar 28). Germany provided additional €7.27 million for energy infrastructure repair (Mar 28). Czech initiative targets 1.5 million shells (2025). Netherlands accelerated €2bn aid delivery (2025). Ramstein meeting scheduled for April 11.
EU Alignment: Ukraine achieved 100% alignment with EU foreign policy decisions and statements in early 2025, following 95% in 2024. Confirmed during EU screening for "External, Security and Defence Policy" chapter. Next step is opening the "External Relations" cluster. (RBC-Ukraina 19:03 UTC).
Hungarian Political Maneuvering: Orban government launching postal survey on Ukraine's EU membership, accompanied by materials highlighting alleged negative impacts ("risks") for Hungary. Responses due June 20. (RBC-Ukraine 16:45 UTC, Operatyvnyi ZSU 17:48 UTC, Tsaplienko 18:19 UTC).
Poland Military Posture: Poland reportedly returning to mandatory military service to create a mass reserve army, citing need to enhance defence capabilities. (Voin DV / Polsat 18:03 UTC).
