Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 29, 2025, 03:56 UTC
(Incorporating updates received up to 03:56 UTC)
I. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) Threat: Russian tactical aviation conducted KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast around 02:01 UTC, Mar 29. (Ukrainian Air Force / RBC-Ukraine)
UAV Threat Status: Threat of Shahed strike UAVs cleared across all oblasts as of 01:01 UTC, Mar 29 (Ukrainian Air Force / RBC-Ukraine). This follows a period of diminished activity overnight.
Previous Activity (Recap): Minimal UAVs tracked late Mar 28 over Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Sumy Oblasts. Air alerts ended in Kyiv (00:18 UTC) and Zaporizhzhia (23:53 UTC, Mar 28). Possible Shahed interception reported over Kyiv late Mar 28.
Damage (UA Confirmed): Extensive damage to multiple residential buildings, homes, vehicles, service stations. Large fire extinguished at Bartolommeo restaurant complex. Search/rescue concluded. Evidence documentation ongoing.
Luhansk Fire Cause (Russian Claim): RU sources attribute large warehouse fire in Luhansk industrial zone to debris from 2 allegedly intercepted Ukrainian UAVs. No casualties claimed. (RU CLAIM)
Russian Air Strike Claim (Tactical - Mar 29): Video shared by RU sources (Voenkor DV, ~01:05 UTC) purportedly shows a Russian aircraft launching unguided aerial rockets (NAR) using a loft maneuver ("с кабрирования"), resulting in one rocket hitting and detonating a Ukrainian field ammunition depot. Objective control (BDA via drone) claimed. (RU CLAIM - Tactical Event)
Russian Artillery Strike Claim (Toretsk Direction): RU sources claim a BM-21 Grad strike hit a Ukrainian ammunition transport vehicle near Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), causing secondary explosions. (RU CLAIM)
RU MoD claims forces in Kursk Oblast are "confidently advancing towards the border with Ukraine" (TASS, 02:06 UTC). (RU CLAIM)
RU sources ("Dva Mayora", 03:44 UTC) claim forces advanced to the center of Guyevo (Kursk Oblast). This aligns with earlier ISW-confirmed RU advances near Guyevo. (RU CLAIM)
RU MoD video/report claims capture of Ukrainian POWs (allegedly recent draftees) and trophies in the Kursk border area. The report also mentions high attrition within the involved Russian assault group (4 survivors). (TASS, 02:13 UTC). (RU CLAIM / VISUAL)
Ukrainian Equipment Loss Claim: Russian sources (Colonelcassad, 02:05 UTC) published images claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian M109A6 Paladin SPG (attributed to 47th Mech Brigade) in Kursk Oblast. (RU CLAIM / VISUAL)
Ukrainian Advance Confirmed (ISW, Mar 29 Pub): Confirmed UA advances into eastern Popovka (NW Belgorod Oblast).
Belgorod Fighting: Russian sources ("Dva Mayora", 03:44 UTC) report continued fighting in Demydovka and Popovka (Belgorod Oblast), claiming 7 Ukrainian vehicles were destroyed on Mar 28. (RU CLAIM)
Kupiansk / Kharkiv Direction (Significant Russian Claims & Pressure):
Russian Claim (NEW - Oskil R. Bank): RU sources ("Dva Mayora", 03:44 UTC) claim the capture of Krasne Pershe (Kharkiv Oblast), located on the right bank of the Oskil River. (RU CLAIM - Verification Required)
Russian Claim: Military expert Marochko claims Russian forces have "100% secured positions" near Topoli, Kharkiv Oblast (border area SE of Kupiansk). (TASS, 02:09 UTC). (RU CLAIM)
Russian Claims (Mar 28): Significant advances claimed by "Zapad" Group on Dvurichanskyi bridgehead: entry into Mala Shapkovka, full control of Kondrashivka, advance across Velykyi Burluk road, entry into Tyshchenkivka. Attributed by RU to potential UA redeployments. (RU CLAIM - Verification Required)
ISW Assessment (Mar 29 Pub): Intense fighting, assessed RU advances east of Oskil River (near Synkivka, Kyslivka, Zahryzove). Previous RU claim on Pershotravneve reiterated.
Lyman Direction:CRITICAL INTENSITY.
Russian Casualty Claim ("Center" Group): RU MoD / Spokesperson Savchuk claims Russian "Center" Group inflicted over 520 Ukrainian KIA/WIA and destroyed 2 tanks, 1 AFV, 6 vehicles, and 4 artillery pieces (incl. M101) in 24hrs across its AoR, which includes areas like Novosergiyivka. (TASS, 02:35 UTC). (RU CLAIM)
Toretsk Direction / Alexandrо-Kalyninske:HIGH INTENSITY.
Russian Offensive Claim (NEW): RU sources ("Dva Mayora", 03:44 UTC) report ongoing Russian offensive battles in the Alexandrо-Kalyninske direction, specifically near Panteleimonivka and Alexandropol. Fighting is also reported east towards Tarasivka. (RU CLAIM)
Russian Advance Confirmed (ISW, Mar 29 Pub): Confirmed RU advances near the Tsentralna mine (Toretsk area).
Russian Casualty Claim ("South" Group): RU MoD claims inflicting significant UA losses (part of up to 260 total) in the area covered by the "South" Group of Forces. (TASS, 02:03 UTC). (RU CLAIM)
Russian Casualty Claim ("Center" Group): RU MoD / Spokesperson Savchuk claims Russian "Center" Group inflicted over 520 Ukrainian KIA/WIA and destroyed 2 tanks, 1 AFV, 6 vehicles, and 4 artillery pieces (incl. M101) in 24hrs across its AoR, which includes areas like Kotlyne, Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk), Petrovske, and Novo-Oleksandrivka. (TASS, 02:35 UTC). (RU CLAIM)
Russian Casualty Claim ("South" Group): RU MoD claims inflicting significant UA losses (part of up to 260 total) in the area covered by the "South" Group of Forces. (TASS, 02:03 UTC). (RU CLAIM)
Russian Advance Confirmed (ISW, Mar 29 Pub): Confirmed RU advances near Kurakhove and north of Andriivka.
Russian Casualty Claim ("South" Group): RU MoD claims inflicting significant UA losses (part of up to 260 total) in the area covered by the "South" Group of Forces. (TASS, 02:03 UTC). (RU CLAIM)
RU sources report ongoing attacks on Vesele (RU CLAIM).
UGS reported 13 RU attacks repelled (Novopavlivsk, Mar 27).
Zaporizhzhia Direction (Orikhiv/Huliaipole):
Russian Offensive Claim (NEW): RU sources ("Dva Mayora", 03:44 UTC) claim a Russian push from Mali Shcherbaky towards Shcherbaky, describing heavy, bloody battles involving elements of the 7th Guards Air Assault Division (VDV). (RU CLAIM)
Russian Advance Claim (Near Dnipronerhii): Occupation official Rogov claims Russian forces improved positions near "Dnipronerhii" on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. (TASS, 03:12 UTC). (RU CLAIM - Requires Verification)
Russian Advance Confirmed (ISW, Mar 29 Pub): Confirmed RU advances in fields north of Zherebyanky (West Zaporizhzhia Oblast). Previous RU claims placed forces in center of Lobkove.
Huliaipole: Previous RU claims of breaking into Vilne Pole (RU CLAIM).
Russian Casualty Claim ("South" Group): RU MoD claims inflicting significant UA losses (part of up to 260 total) in the area covered by the "South" Group of Forces (likely includes Huliaipole axis). (TASS, 02:03 UTC). (RU CLAIM)
Civilian evacuation ongoing from frontline communities.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Positional fighting. Contested areas and claimed UA counteroffensives (ISW Map, Mar 29 Pub).
III. Other Military-Relevant Developments
Enemy Tactics/Capabilities & Claims:
Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy Ops Claims: RU MoD/sources claim advances (towards border, center of Guyevo, capture of Veselovka), destruction of UA M109 Paladin, capture of POWs, repelling UA attacks. (RU CLAIM)
Kharkiv Border Claims: RU sources claim securing Topoli and capturing Krasne Pershe (right bank Oskil). (RU CLAIM)
Alexandropol/Panteleimonivka Offensive: RU sources claim active offensive operations. (RU CLAIM)
"Center" Group Casualty Claims: RU MoD claims inflicting over 520 UA KIA/WIA and destroying multiple vehicles/artillery pieces in 24hrs across Pokrovsk/Lyman directions. (TASS, 02:35 UTC). (RU CLAIM)
"South" Group Casualty Claims: RU MoD claims inflicting up to 260 UA KIA/WIA and destroying 1 tank across Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Huliaipole directions in 24hrs. (TASS, 02:03 UTC). (RU CLAIM)
Unguided Rocket Air Strikes: RU sources claim successful use of NAR from aircraft against ground targets (ammunition depot), utilizing loft tactics and drone BDA (Mar 29). (RU CLAIM)
UR-77 Use: RU MoD confirmed use against UA stronghold (Pokrovsk direction, Mar 28).
Battlefield Observation: Recent RU drone footage (Mar 29) shows aftermath of combat in an unspecified rural area, documenting destroyed military equipment and damaged buildings.
Command & Control / Strategic Developments:
Ukrainian Command: Andriy Hnatov appointed Chief of General Staff / Stavka member (Mar 28).
Russian Offensive Preparations (UA Assessment): Previous intel indicated RU preparations for new offensives targeting Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblasts (Zelenskyy, Mar 27).
Logistics & Personnel:
Ukrainian Personnel (RU Claim): Anecdotal RU report claims captured UA POWs in Kursk border area were recently drafted. (TASS, 02:13 UTC). (RU CLAIM)
Russian Engineering: Road construction continues in occupied Donetsk Oblast for logistics.
Russian Recruitment/Losses/Internal:
Kursk Assault Group Losses (RU Anecdotal): RU soldier in MoD report claims high attrition (4 survivors) in own assault group during Kursk border operation. (TASS, 02:13 UTC). (RU CLAIM / SOURCE REPORT)
Reports highlight rapid deployment, use of penal recruits.
Appeals from relatives indicate significant MIA personnel/ID backlogs.
Defense Industry Figure Incident (UPDATE): Former deputy founder of "Telta" plant (defense-related), Alexei Vysokov, previously reported escaping house arrest by signing MoD contract, has been recaptured and returned to pre-trial detention (SIZ) on embezzlement charges. (TASS, 03:01 UTC). Suggests potential recruitment pathways and internal control issues persist.
FSB Counter-Intelligence Operation (St. Petersburg - UPDATE): Russian FSB detained a Russian citizen accused of treason (Art. 275). Allegations include administering pro-Ukrainian/opposition resources, contacting Ukrainian GUR, and providing financial assistance to AFU. Subject reportedly acted voluntarily. (RVvoenkor, Mar 29). This highlights Russian internal security efforts targeting perceived domestic support for Ukraine.
Russian Crowdfunding: Ongoing public appeals (e.g., VDV request for Mavic 3 batteries, Mar 29) suggest reliance on non-standard channels for tactical equipment.
Civilian Impact (Occupied Territories - NEW): RU sources report a civilian male (b. 1984) was injured in the Yasynuvata district (DNR) when his vehicle was struck by a Ukrainian kamikaze drone on the Yasynuvata-Donetsk road. ("Dva Mayora", 03:44 UTC).
Zaporizhzhia NPP (ZNPP) Status (NEW): Director Yuri Chernichuk stated that a cooling tower damaged in previous alleged Ukrainian attacks will, based on preliminary estimates, be restored. (TASS, 03:32 UTC). (RUSSIAN STATEMENT)
IV. International Military Cooperation & Aid / Political Developments
Intelligence/Production: Ukraine secured expanded access to partner intel/ammo. Agreements for domestic AD system production; artillery production licenses sought.
US Aid Terms: Refusal of debt-based aid reiterated; US indicated future aid may not be free (Zelenskyy).
US-Ukraine Minerals Deal Controversy (RU Amplification - NEW): Russian sources ("RVvoenkor" via "Operatsiya Z", 03:42 UTC) amplify a Washington Post report alleging a proposed US deal concerning Ukraine's mineral resources contains "onerous" conditions. Claims include: reclassifying past US aid as repayable loans with interest derived from mineral revenues, granting the US "first right of refusal" on energy/mineral investments (effectively US control), and a US majority on the governing board. Ukrainian officials reportedly view the terms as "terrible" and unacceptable. (RUSSIAN AMPLIFICATION of WP REPORT - Potential Info Ops)
Information Operations & Propaganda:
Putin's Negotiation Framing (ISW Analysis): ISW assesses Putin is intensifying efforts to portray the Ukrainian government as illegitimate and unable to negotiate peace, attempting to reframe the "causes" of the war based on maximalist Russian demands. This is seen as an attempt to undermine Ukraine's legitimacy and insert new preconditions into any discussion of settlement. (RBC-Ukraine / ISW, Mar 29).
Sudzha GIS Narrative (RU Claim): RU sources ("Dva Mayora", 03:44 UTC) explicitly blame Ukraine for the attack on the Sudzha Gas Metering Station, alleging use of US-supplied HIMARS facilitated by French satellite intelligence and British specialists, framing it as a deliberate disruption of potential gas supplies to Europe and a reason for Russia to withdraw from recent agreements. (RU CLAIM / INFO OPS)
Dnipro Strike Narrative (RU Claim): RU sources claim targeting the Yuzhmash military facility and blame Ukrainian air defense for hitting civilian buildings. (RU CLAIM / INFO OPS)
Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra Narrative (RU Source): Russian sources (RVvoenkor, Mar 29) amplify claims of planned "desecration" by Ukrainian authorities during Lent, framing it as anti-Orthodox action encouraged by the West. Analysis of related images notes police presence near a church, potentially exploitable for propaganda.
POW Abuse Claims (RU Source): Russian sources (Colonelcassad, Mar 29) disseminated alleged testimony from a returned POW ("Pianist") detailing severe mistreatment (beatings, dog attacks) in Ukrainian captivity, including specific targeting of an Odesa native. Presented as evidence for a Russian-affiliated "tribunal". This narrative aims to demoralize UA forces, justify RU actions, and potentially influence international opinion.
V. Recent Historical Context (Relevant Confirmed/Claimed Events - Previous Updates)
Confirmed Ukrainian Strikes (Past Week):
HIMARS strike eliminating RU Major Tibilov (Mar 26-27, Kursk Oblast).
Strike on RU Command Post (9th MRR/18th MRD) near Viktorivka-Uspenivka (Kursk Oblast), eliminating Battalion Commander (reported Mar 26).
Sudzha GIS Strike (Mar 28): Significant damage confirmed at Sudzha Gas Metering Station (Kursk Oblast). Russia attributes to UA HIMARS (RU Claim); Ukraine denies/attributes to Russia. RU sources reiterate the HIMARS claim (Mar 29).
Massive Shahed Attacks (Night Mar 26-27): Widespread RU drone attacks caused significant civilian infrastructure damage and casualties (Kharkiv, Zolochiv, Dnipro).
High Ground Combat Intensity (Late March): Combat clashes significantly higher in March vs Feb. Primary RU focus areas confirmed (ISW/UGS): Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Zaporizhzhia (West), border areas.
Kursk/Belgorod Border (Mar 28): Russia confirmed capture of Hoholivka (Gogolevka), Kursk Oblast. Continued intense fighting reported. RU claims capture of Krasne Pershe (Kharkiv), advance in Guyevo (Kursk), capture of Veselovka (Sumy) on Mar 29 (RU Claims).
Crimea Strikes (Mar 27 Claim): UA GUR claimed drone strikes on RU AD/logistics assets.
Kherson Civilian Casualties (Mar 27): 2 KIA, 6 WIA due to RU shelling/drones.
Orikhiv Direction Advance Claim (Mar 27 - RU): Claimed >2.5km advance E of Kam'yanske to Shcherbaky. RU claims offensive push towards Shcherbaky on Mar 29 (RU Claim).
International Planning (Mar 27): Confirmed FR/UK/DE military leaders visit to Kyiv for planning support. Next Ramstein set for Apr 11.
