Military Situation Update: March 28, 2025, 16:26 UTC
I. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Immediate Threats & Alerts (as of 16:26 UTC):
Ongoing Russian reconnaissance UAV activity reported in Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian air defense countermeasures remain engaged (UA Air Force, 15:30 UTC).
Previous air raid alert for Sumy city (UA Air Force, 15:27 UTC). Status requires confirmation.
Previous detection of fast-moving aerial target on the border of Sumy Oblast (UA Air Force, 15:25 UTC). Status requires confirmation.
Air raid alert ended across Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 15:48 UTC).
Poltava Oblast Airfield: Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika, 15:49 UTC, updated 15:56 UTC) claim UAV strikes targeted a military airfield, hitting ammunition depots, a repair base for MiG-29s (allegedly supplied by Poland), and destroying two Su-24 aircraft (initially reported as fighters, then bombers).
Claimed Russian Drone Operations:
RU MoD (15:28 UTC) released footage claiming FPV drone strikes by the "Rubikon Centre" eliminated Ukrainian personnel and hardware in the Kursk border area. Source emphasizes FPV drones for road ambushes as routine (Poddybny, 16:06 UTC).
Russian sources (Voenkor Kotenok, 16:00 UTC) are fundraising for DJI Mavic 3T and 3Pro drones for the 2nd Motor Rifle Battalion of the 60th Motor Rifle Brigade, highlighting reliance on commercial drones for reconnaissance and strike capability.
Ukrainian Drone Operations:
Ukrainian sources (Operatyvnyi ZSU, 15:56 UTC) released footage showing the "Chornyi Lis" brigade identifying and correcting artillery fire onto Russian artillery positions.
Ukrainian sources (46th Airmobile Brigade, 16:17 UTC) released compilation footage showcasing drone strikes destroying Russian artillery and personnel, emphasizing the effectiveness of drone operators.
Ukrainian sources (Butusov Plus, 15:58 UTC) released footage attributed to the APACHI drone group (90th Btn, 81st Airmobile Bde) depicting a Russian soldier reportedly taking his own life under psychological pressure, potentially indicating morale issues.
II. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy/Kharkiv)
Kursk/Belgorod Border Sections (RU Territory):
Russian Claims (Belgorod): A Russian UAV operator ("Moisei" via Dva Mayora, 15:47 UTC) claims ongoing fighting and alleges Ukrainian losses for the day in this sector: 1 Tank, 1 Artillery piece, 1 Mortar with crew, and 1 UAV crew. Requires verification.
Russian Claims (Kursk): Russian MoD (16:06 UTC) released footage of a captured Ukrainian soldier (Vladimir Berezhnykh) allegedly captured in Plekhovo (Kursk Oblast) after attempting to disguise himself as a civilian. Claims his unit retreated and he was identified by NATO-issue boots. Also claims civilians in the building were killed by Ukrainian projectile fragments. Serves propaganda purpose, details require verification.
Russian Tactics (Kursk): RU MoD (15:28 UTC) and associated sources (Poddybny, 16:06 UTC) highlight the use of FPV drones by units like "Rubikon" for ambushes along roads in the border region.
Previous Clashes (Kursk, Mar 27): UGS reported 18 clashes. RU forces secured MAPP Sudzha checkpoint. Claims of clearing Hoholiivka, advancing towards Oleshnia, consolidating in N. Huyevo. Fighting near Basovka, Gogolevka, Huyevo, Sudzha crossing, Oleshnia.
Previous Clashes (Belgorod, Mar 27): Higher UA activity claimed vs Kursk. UA presence claimed in Popovka, Demidovka. Intense RU fire. Confirmed UA airstrikes on bridges in Grafovka, Annovka (Nadezhivka).
Sumy/Kharkiv Border Sections (UA Territory):
Kharkiv Direction (Kupyansk Area): Head of Kharkiv OVA (Syniehubov, 15:50 UTC) reported a Russian artillery strike on Kupyansk. The attack resulted in fires affecting a private house, garage, and associated structures over 200 sq meters. Threat of further shelling persists.
Sumy Oblast: CinC Syrskyi previously confirmed RU efforts to expand combat into Sumy Oblast.
III. Frontline Activity Highlights (Based on recent and previous reports)
Overall Intensity (as of Mar 27, 20:00 UTC): 195 combat clashes reported by UGS. High levels of Russian air (74 strikes/109 KABs), drone (1123 attacks), and artillery (~4800 shellings) strikes.
Kupyansk Direction:HIGH INTENSITY. 26 RU assaults reported (UGS, Mar 27); 2 ongoing then. Russian advance reported near Pishchane and Orlyanske (DeepState, Mar 27). Continued Russian artillery reported on Kupyansk city (Mar 28).
Lyman Direction:HIGH INTENSITY / CRITICAL. 32 RU attacks reported (UGS, Mar 27); 3 ongoing then. Terny assessed almost fully RU-occupied (DeepState, Mar 27).
Siversk Direction: 3 RU assaults repelled (UGS, Mar 27).
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar/Bakhmut): 4 RU attempts repelled (UGS, Mar 27).
Toretsk Direction:HIGH INTENSITY. 23 RU attacks reported (UGS, Mar 27); 2 ongoing then. Russian advance reported near Panteleimonivka (DeepState, Mar 27).
Pokrovsk Direction:HIGHEST INTENSITY. 57 RU assaults reported (UGS, Mar 27); 12 ongoing then. High RU losses claimed (~298 neutralized by UGS). UA forces reportedly pushed back RU forces in lower Kotlyne. Russian advance reported near Katerynivka (DeepState, Mar 27). Russian sources (RVvoenkor, 16:18 UTC) released combat footage claiming destruction of UA tanks, NATO BMPs, SPGs, positions, and personnel by "Center" Group on Mar 27.
Huliaipole Direction: 9 RU assaults repelled (UGS, Mar 27).
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): 4 RU attacks repelled (UGS, Mar 27). RU claim of breaking into center of Shcherbaky (Mar 27). Ukrainian source (Butusov Plus, 15:58 UTC) released testimony from a captured Russian soldier (Magomed Medov, 503rd Regt) describing very heavy Ukrainian artillery fire ("320 shells") causing severe casualties (4 survivors out of 28) in this direction, suggesting intense UA defensive actions.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): No active RU offensive actions reported (UGS, Mar 27). Positional fighting.
IV. Strategic & Geopolitical Developments
Sudzha GIS Strike Fallout & Information Operations:
Russian MFA spokesperson Zakharova continues to assert British and French involvement (specialists, satellite data, command from London) in the strike on the Sudzha Gas Measuring Station (GIS) (Voenkor Kotenok 15:27 UTC, Rybar 15:54 UTC, Dva Mayora 15:55 UTC, Dva Mayora 16:01 UTC).
Russia claims the facility was already damaged by UA forces during withdrawal from Kursk Oblast (Mar 21) and is now "practically destroyed" (Dva Mayora, 15:55 UTC).
Zakharova's statements framed as accusing Paris/London of undermining potential Trump peace initiatives (Dva Mayora, 16:01 UTC).
Ceasefire Prospects & International Positions:
Ukrainian sources (Tsaplienko, 15:47 UTC) report US Secretary of State Rubio stated Russia agrees to a ceasefire, but emphasizes the terms are likely Russian-favorable and require analysis.
Russian President Putin reportedly proposed involving "friendly" countries including North Korea, China, India, Brazil, and South Africa in peace talks (Tsaplienko, 16:03 UTC).
Moldova/Gagauzia Situation:
The Head (Bashkan) of the Gagauz autonomy in Moldova, Evgenia Gutul (considered pro-Russian), has been arrested for 20 days (TASS 15:51 UTC, ASTRA 16:00 UTC), correcting earlier reports. Arrest occurred March 25 at Chisinau airport.
Charges relate to alleged illegal financing of the pro-Russian "Shor" party's 2023 election campaign (ASTRA, 16:00 UTC).
Russian sources (Dva Mayora 15:32 UTC, Rybar 15:19 UTC, Colonelcassad 15:52 UTC, Voenkor Kotenok 16:20 UTC) frame the arrest as political repression by Moldova's pro-Western government ahead of parliamentary elections, linking it to broader European efforts to suppress dissenting voices.
Gutul described the arrest as "beheading Gagauzia" (TASS, 16:14 UTC). Her deputy stated the Gagauzian government will continue work (TASS, 15:52 UTC), but also claimed President Sandu aims to replace Gutul with an appointee (TASS, 16:04 UTC).
Ukrainian Diplomatic Response:
UA MFA spokesperson Tykhyi dismissed Putin's suggestion of a temporary UN administration in Ukraine, offering a counter-proposal for UN administration in Vorkuta, Russia (RBC-Ukraina, 15:46 UTC).
International Support for Ukraine:
Sweden: Pledged €7 million (approx. 80 million SEK) split between demining support and drones for Ukraine (RBC-Ukraina, 16:10 UTC).
US: US Secretary of State Rubio stated the US program investigating the abduction of Ukrainian children by Russia is currently unfunded due to budget cuts, but data is secured (Sternenko, 16:03 UTC).
Ukraine Funding Request: Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Podolyak quoted (Mar 25) stating EU countries should pay at least 1% of GDP for their security to Ukraine (Basurin, 16:23 UTC).
US-Canada Relations: US President Trump reported a "productive conversation" with new Canadian PM Mark Carney, announcing plans to meet post-Canadian election (RBC-Ukraina, 15:54 UTC).
V. Ukrainian Internal Developments
Mobilization Policy Update:
Individuals previously classified as "limitedly fit" must undergo a repeat medical evaluation (VKL) by June 5, 2025. Failure to comply by June 6, 2025, will result in being declared wanted for violating military registration rules, with fines starting from 17,000 UAH (RBC-Ukraina 15:29 UTC, Operatyvnyi ZSU 15:39 UTC).
Anti-Corruption Measures:
Suspicion served against four leaders (two deputy commanders, two company commanders) within a military unit in Lviv (Office of the Prosecutor General, 15:45 UTC). They are accused of organizing a scheme allowing seven contract soldiers to avoid service (July 2024 - March 2025) to work at private auto repair shops in exchange for kickbacks. Significant cash and evidence seized. Suspects detained.
Sources (RBC-Ukraina, 16:19 UTC) identify the unit as National Guard Military Unit 4114 in Lviv, confirming SBU and DBR involvement in searches.
Military Training & Units:
Ukrainian Airmobile Forces (DShV) highlighted ongoing training for the 122nd Separate Airmobile Battalion (81st Airmobile Brigade), focusing on urban assault, unit interaction, drone cooperation, and vehicle dismounts (DShV, 16:00 UTC). Footage released showcases training activities.
Russian sources (Dva Mayora, 16:04 UTC) analyzed a GUR video featuring the "Prymary" (Ghosts) special unit, identifying it as a relatively new formation active since 2024, previously operating FPV drones in Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts and Kupyansk direction. Its current reported activity in Crimea suggests an expansion of tasks, potentially including FPV drone operations alongside maritime drones to degrade Russian defensive capabilities on the peninsula. This unit was previously known as "Ghost".
Russian Information Operations (Internal Ukrainian Focus):
Russian sources (RVvoenkor via Operatsiya Z, 15:43 UTC) continue narratives about alleged "military lawyers" in Kyiv assisting men in evading mobilization, sometimes involving confrontation or staged incidents, aiming to portray internal dissent and resistance.
VI. Russian Internal Developments / Other
Recruitment & Social Issues:
Reports continue (ASTRA 16:17 UTC, Sever.Realii 16:06 UTC) about pardoned convicts returning from the front and committing new crimes (e.g., Vladimir Klementyev in Barnaul, previously convicted of double murder, pardoned after fighting, now charged with assaulting police). This highlights potential societal consequences of recruitment practices.
Russian sources (Voenkor Kotenok, 16:24 UTC) released a video featuring patriotic/religious poetry and imagery, likely aimed at bolstering morale and framing the conflict in spiritual terms.
Geopolitical Narratives:
Russian sources (Rybar, 16:24 UTC) published analysis critical of potential Turkmenistan-EU/WTO cooperation, framing Latvia's experience negatively and suggesting Western interest is aimed at undermining Russian/Chinese influence and exploiting Turkmenistan's resources.
Non-Military:
Earthquake in Thailand declared a major disaster (TASS, 15:29 UTC); casualties reported (TASS, 16:16 UTC).
Arrest warrants related to "Pushkin Card" scheme in Russia (TASS, 15:45 UTC).
Renovation of courthouse in Novozybkov, Bryansk Oblast (Bogomaz, 15:53 UTC).
