Military Situation Update: March 28, 2025, 08:26 UTC
(Incorporating information received up to 08:26 UTC)
I. Strategic Overview
Combat Intensity & Main Efforts:
High intensity combat persists across the front, particularly concentrated in the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, and Toretsk directions, as well as along the Kursk/Belgorod border. Russian forces reportedly focusing assaults near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction (RU: Dnevnik Desantnika).
Russian forces continue extensive air, drone, and artillery strikes. Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) previously reported 195 combat clashes (Mar 27, 20:00 UTC). Operatyvnyi ZSU (Mar 28) reported for the previous day: 157 KAB strikes (plus 25 on Kursk Oblast), 6430 shelling incidents, and 2911 kamikaze drone attacks.
Significant Russian strikes continue to target energy and civilian infrastructure across multiple regions.
Large-Scale Ukrainian Drone Campaign (Overnight Mar 27/28):
Russian MoD Claim: Interception/destruction of 78 Ukrainian UAVs over eight Russian Oblasts (Voronezh, Saratov, Kursk, Belgorod, Lipetsk, Rostov, Tambov).
Ukrainian Air Force Claim (as of 09:00 UTC): Enemy attacked with 163 strike UAVs (Shahed type) and imitator drones launched from Russia and occupied Crimea. 89 strike UAVs confirmed shot down over southern, northern, and central Ukraine. 51 imitator drones were "locationally lost" without negative consequences. Affected regions: Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia (ASTRA, AFU).
Energy Infrastructure Strikes:
Russian Claims: RU source (Mash na Donbasse) claims UA strikes hit four energy facilities in occupied Kherson Oblast: substations "Bolshaya Lepetikha" and "Vinogradovo", Novokakhovsky RES, and power lines in Skadovsk district. Allegedly violates Mar 18 agreement.
Ukrainian Assessment: Russian strikes targeting energy infrastructure persist despite previous narratives of a moratorium.
II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Recent Russian Activity:
Ongoing Threats (as of 08:26 UTC):
UAV alerts active in Chernihiv, Poltava oblasts (AFU, ~07:48 UTC). Possible air defense activity noted.
Tactical aviation activity reported on eastern and northeastern fronts; threat of air-launched weapons (AFU, ~07:49 UTC).
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) reported heading towards Sumy Oblast (AFU, ~07:35 UTC).
Recent Strikes (RU Claims):
Claimed destruction of UA UAV production workshop and warehouse in Bohodukhiv, Kharkiv Oblast using strike drones (RU MoD via Poddubny, ~07:50 UTC). Bohodukhiv noted as logistics hub (rail, road to Sumy).
Claimed destruction of UA transport carrying ammunition near Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) using BM-21 Grad (Narodnaya Militsiya DNR, ~07:59 UTC).
Claimed destruction of UA Dovbush T-20 UAV (FPV carrier) in Chernihiv Oblast using fiber-optic FPV drone (Colonelcassad, ~07:43 UTC).
Claimed FPV strikes on UA forces and equipment in Kursk border area by "Rubikon" Center (Basurin, RVvoenkor, ~07:51, 08:09 UTC).
Claimed tank strike on UA fortified positions (Colonelcassad, ~07:59 UTC).
Ukrainian Drone Activity:
Reported Strikes: Claimed destruction of UA 2S22 Bohdana self-propelled howitzer in South Donetsk direction by RU 305th Arty Bde / 5th Gds Bde UAV operators (Voin DV, ~07:30 UTC).
Procurement/Supply: Delivery of 68 DJI Mavic drones to UA National Guard units in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reported (Serhiy Lysak, ~07:35 UTC). Ongoing large-scale public fundraising for FPV drones (Sternenko, 47th Mech Bde, Butusov/110th Bde). Sternenko reports 420 FPVs purchased in last 24h (total 165,519).
Alleged Psychotropic Drug Use (RU Claim): RU sources (Dnevnik Desantnika, ~07:39 UTC) circulate testimony from alleged captured UA soldier claiming use of psychotropic drugs ("fear suppressants") issued at medical points before assaults near Belgorod border. Claims heavy losses (25/30 KIA) in his group during border engagement. Requires verification; potential propaganda.
III. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy/Kharkiv)
Overall: Intense positional fighting, heavy artillery/drone exchanges, claimed cross-border incursions/repulsions persist. Situation in Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Belgorod Obl.) remains "difficult" (RU Governor via RVvoenkor, ~07:28 UTC).
Belgorod Oblast (RU Claims/Reports):
Popovka/Demidovka Area (Krasnoyaruzhsky Dist.):
Renewed UA ground assault attempts on Popovka reported overnight/morning (Mar 28). RU claims 9 UA attacks repelled in last 24h, 6 targeting Popovka with infantry/armor. Claims UA forces destroyed on approaches, including by friendly fire from UA UAVs (Voenkor Kotenok, ~08:17 UTC). Small arms fighting ongoing within Popovka village.
Civilian Impact: RU Governor confirms support center assisting displaced residents from Krasnoyaruzhsky, Rakityansky, Volokonovsky districts. Infrastructure work (pipeline) ongoing in Shebekinsky district (RVvoenkor, ~07:28 UTC).
Hoholivka (RU term for Gogolevka?): Claimed fully "liberated". RU 51st Para Regt allegedly secured positions near state border and Suja border crossing.
Oleshnya Area: Claims UA 95th Brigade forces holding Oleshnya and nearby ravines are in semi-encirclement. Reports heavy UA losses from RU artillery/air/drone strikes; attempts to reinforce are difficult.
Ongoing Fighting (RU Claims - Voenkor Kotenok): Reported in Sumy border areas: Volodymyrivka, near Vodolahy, Veselivka, Zhuravka, SE part of Basivka, Huyevo and forest east of it.
RU Strikes in Border Area (RU Claims): FPV drone strikes targeting UA personnel and equipment claimed by "Rubikon" Center (Basurin, RVvoenkor, ~07:51, 08:09 UTC).
RU Captured Equipment Claim: Photo shared of alleged captured/damaged US-supplied M1117 ASV in Kursk Oblast (Colonelcassad, ~07:59 UTC).
IV. Frontline Activity
Overall Intensity: RU claims average daily advance of 7.5 sq km (Mar 13-26), totaling 29.8 sq km. Claims 21.5 sq km advance in Kursk/Sumy oblasts during same period (Slivnoy Kapriz, ~08:02 UTC). Requires verification.
Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) Direction (RU Claims - Dnevnik Desantnika, ~08:11 UTC):
Advancing towards Kotlyarivka; claimed 600m advance from Nadiia (Nadezhdinka?), forcing UA withdrawal.
Near Oleksiivka: UA counterattacks ongoing; RU claims holding positions on village outskirts despite heavy fighting.
From Sribne: RU assault groups advancing towards Bohdanivka on southern flank; claim occupying ravine and reaching eastern part of Bohdanivka.
South Donetsk Direction:
RU claim destruction of UA 2S22 Bohdana SPG with UAV (Voin DV, ~07:30 UTC).
Toretsk Direction:
UA 12th Azov Special Purpose Brigade reported capturing 20 RU POWs after failed assaults; emphasizes surrendering as only way for RU soldiers to survive (Butusov Plus, ~07:29 UTC).
RU claim BM-21 Grad strike destroyed UA ammo transport near Dzerzhynsk (Narodnaya Militsiya DNR, ~07:59 UTC).
Kostiantynivka Direction (RU Claim - Kotsnews, ~08:18 UTC):
Claimed destruction of UA HMMWV near Predtechyne by RU 27th Arty Regt / 6th Div drones. Vehicle allegedly immobilized then destroyed.
Other:
RU source (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, ~07:57 UTC) reports large, persistent fire observed in Sumy direction, potentially energy infrastructure.
V. Other Significant Updates
Humanitarian/POWs/Casualties:
UA Coordination Staff held online meeting with families of 24th Mech Bde POWs/MIAs, discussing interaction mechanisms, info gathering (incl. from released POWs), international involvement, and recovery of fallen soldiers (Coord Staff, ~08:17 UTC).
US Funding for Child Tracking: US State Dept confirms temporary (6-week) funding extension for Conflict Observatory program (tracking UA children deported by Russia), planning data transfer to Europol for future investigation (RBC-Ukraine, Tsaplienko, ~07:57, 08:02 UTC). Previous reports indicated funding cancellation (Sternenko, Mar 28 07:31 UTC).
Child Casualties (UA OGP, ~07:33 UTC): Updated figures: 606 children killed, >1841 injured since full-scale invasion. Recent incidents: 3yo girl killed, 15yo girl injured in Kurtivka (Donetsk Obl, Mar 25); 14yo girl injured in Kharkiv (Mar 26). Highest numbers in Donetsk (636), Kharkiv (471).
RU War Correspondent Funerals: Funeral held for Alexander Fedorchak in Simferopol, Crimea (TASS, WarGonzo, ~07:58, 08:19 UTC). Prokofieva killed Mar 26 near Belgorod border.
SBU Arrests (Donetsk Oblast): Two alleged RU agents detained, suspected of providing targeting information to RU forces (FSB/GRU). One allegedly scouted UA positions/infrastructure in Sloviansk area via "Odnoklassniki"; the other allegedly gathered info on UA troop locations/checkpoints in Kramatorsk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Toretsk/Illinivka areas via Telegram while working as a bread delivery driver (UA OGP, Operatyvnyi ZSU, ~08:00, 08:14 UTC). Both in custody facing treason charges (life imprisonment possible).
Corruption (Draft Evasion): UA State Bureau of Investigation (DBR) exposed military official and entrepreneur allegedly organizing draft deferrals via fraudulent medical exemptions ($25k) or fake enrollment/reservation at Kyiv educational institution ($5k) (Operatyvnyi ZSU, ~07:42 UTC).
Russian Internal/Military:
Mobilization Issues: Video testimony from alleged former prisoner/soldier details poor medical care for wounded, lack of hospital beds, and alleged forced redeployment of severely injured personnel (including amputees) back to combat zone from units in Kemerovo/Novosibirsk Oblasts (Mobilization News, ~07:54 UTC).
Legislation: State Duma committees approved draft laws for up to 5 years imprisonment for calls for sanctions against Russia (if mercenary/profit motive) and for allowing in absentia trials for individuals abroad accused of crimes against RF security (TASS, ~08:05, 08:06 UTC).
"Patriotic" Events: Report of civilians crawling through a symbolic pipe installed near a church in Yekaterinburg, allegedly representing RU advance into Sudzha (Kursk Obl.), painted with unit insignia (Tsaplienko, ~08:08 UTC).
Infrastructure:
Disruption reported in Ukrzaliznytsia (UA Railways) online booking system/app due to overload (RBC-Ukraine, ~07:29 UTC).
Russia plans to start construction on multiple sections of Moscow-Petersburg high-speed rail line in Summer 2025 (TASS, ~07:39 UTC).
International/Diplomatic:
EU Defense Spending: RU sources continue narrative of French/Italian/Spanish resistance to EU defense loan plans, framing it as benefiting arms lobby at expense of national debt (Rybary, ~07:34 UTC). France reportedly securing major arms deals (CAESAR, SAMP/T, Mistral 3) with Croatia, partially funded via EU mechanisms (Dva Mayora, ~08:11 UTC).
US Funding for Child Tracking: (See Humanitarian section).
Moldova/Gagauzia: Protests reported outside court considering arrest warrant for Gagauz leader Yevgenia Gutsul (TASS, ~07:52 UTC). Signs express support for Gutsul and opposition to Moldovan President Sandu.
Israel/Houthi: RU source claims recent Houthi missile attack forced millions in Israel to shelters, disrupted Ben Gurion airport. Highlights alleged use of costly THAAD interceptors ($12.6M each) against cheaper Houthi missiles/drones ($2k-$40k), framing it as economically damaging for Israel (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, ~08:16 UTC). Note: Independent verification needed.
Information Domain:
RU sources pushing narratives of successful advances in Kursk/Sumy border areas and near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk).
RU sources circulate alleged captured soldier testimony on UA psychotropic drug use and heavy losses near Belgorod border.
RU sources claim UA strikes on Kherson energy infrastructure, alleging violation of prior agreement.
RU sources highlight journalist casualties and funerals.
