Military Situation Update: March 27, 2025, 18:31 UTC
I. Strategic Overview
Russian Offensive Preparations & Intentions: Intelligence continues to indicate Russian preparations for renewed offensive operations targeting Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. President Zelenskyy assesses Russia is delaying negotiations to facilitate further territorial seizures. Russian sources (citing UA officer Prozapas) amplify claims that Russia aims to capture Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Odesa to link Crimea with Transnistria.
Force Posture Assessment (UA): Forces for potential Kharkiv/Sumy offensives are unlikely to be drawn from Kursk Oblast due to ongoing Ukrainian pressure and combat escalation in Belgorod Oblast. Potential reinforcement sources remain under assessment, with North Korean troop involvement considered a possibility (UA sources claim at least 3,000 troops sent Jan-Feb 2025). CinC Syrskyi, visiting Sumy Oblast, confirms Russian efforts to extend combat operations into the region.
Kursk/Belgorod - Sumy/Kharkiv Border Situation:
Kursk Oblast: Russian forces demonstrably secured the MAPP Sudzha border checkpoint building and claim the vicinity cleared (RU MoD confirms). Fighting persists near the checkpoint and towards Oleshnia. The Russian MoD claims strikes on Ukrainian personnel concentrations near Oleshnia (17:34 UTC). Russian sources confirm Rosgvardia SOBR units are engaged. Claims persist regarding the use of conscripts and related administrative issues. Reports (RU source) state 25 civilians allegedly taken by UA forces will return to Russia on Friday. Ukrainian sources (Bild citation) report severe health issues (lung problems resembling severe COVID, potentially methane poisoning) among Russian soldiers who allegedly used a 15km gas pipe during the Kursk operation ("Truba").
Belgorod Oblast: Ongoing Ukrainian drone and artillery strikes impact multiple settlements (10 reported by RU Governor), causing infrastructure and property damage. No casualties claimed by Russian officials. Fighting previously reported near Demydovka (dynamic situation per RU source). RU source claims Ukrainian forces near Krasnaya Yaruga number ~4,000 personnel with >100 vehicles. RU military reportedly pushing UA forces out.
Sumy Oblast: Russian operational intensity remains elevated along the border. Ukrainian forces conduct defensive operations and counter-attacks. CinC Syrskyi visited the region, noting RU efforts to expand conflict here.
Kursk Direction Combat: Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 8 combat clashes (1 ongoing as of 16:00 local time). Significant Russian air and artillery strikes continue.
Kharkiv Direction: Russian sources report sustained pressure from Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group (DRG) attacks. Russian border units reportedly appeal for equipment, suggesting potential logistical strains. UA reports RU reinforcement (~100 personnel) near Vovchansk.
Combat Intensity & Main Efforts:
Overall intensity remains high, with 159 combat clashes reported by UGS as of 16:00 local time. Analysis (UA sources citing graph) indicates markedly higher Russian assault activity in March 2025 compared to February.
Main Russian Ground Efforts focus on Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, and Toretsk directions.
Potential Change in UA Markings (RU Claim): RU mil-blogger (Kotenok) claims UA forces will soon change identification markings: yellow tape on both shoulders/helmet for personnel; vertical arrow in square for vehicles (location specified). This is allegedly linked to new offensive plans. Requires verification.
International Military Support & Planning:
Operational Planning: Over 200 military planners from >30 countries reportedly assisted Ukraine. Military leaders from France, UK, and Germany traveled to Kyiv to provide planning support.
Potential Foreign Contingents: President Zelenskyy confirmed increasing offers of security guarantees and support, potentially including troop deployments ("boots on the ground"). Ukraine plans to propose a dialogue framework on contingents within 7-10 days. European planning continues despite no current consensus on deployment. Italy PM Meloni stated Italy will not deploy troops but called for US involvement in the next "coalition of the willing" summit.
Ramstein Format: Next meeting scheduled for April 11, chaired by UK Defence Secretary.
French Aid: New €2bn aid package confirmed.
French Military Activity (Romania): France is deploying 300 soldiers (152nd Infantry Regiment) to Cincu base, Romania, for 4 months of training with NATO allies, enhancing presence on the eastern flank under Mission Aigle. Training focuses on mechanized/urban combat, C-UAS, breach ops, river crossing, and artillery interoperability (ASCA). Larger exercise (Dacia Spring, 3k troops) planned for June 2025.
Bulgarian Proposal (Black Sea): Bulgaria proposed hosting a center for monitoring Black Sea security, including maritime activity, potential threats, and underwater infrastructure.
Sweden: Commencing largest rearmament since Cold War, enhancing support for Ukraine.
Diplomacy & Negotiations:
President Zelenskyy maintains Russia is delaying talks for territorial gain. He tasked MoD to provide evidence of the Kherson energy infrastructure strike to the US, expecting a reaction based on prior commitments regarding truce violations. France and UK designated to represent Europe at future negotiation tables (per UA source, Paris summit). Russian sources (citing UA OP) claim Russia refused to discuss cessation of strikes on civilian targets in Riyadh.
US-Russia Dialogue: Contacts continue (Peskov confirms Waltz-Ushakov contact). A second round of consultations may occur in Riyadh mid-April (TASS source). No new Putin-Trump call planned (Peskov). US FinMin official (per Fox News) confirms considering SWIFT return/sanctions relief for Russia as part of settlement.
UA-US Security Agreement/Subsoil Resources: Discussions ongoing, but signing considered premature. Reports (Bloomberg, RU/UA sources) suggest a draft agreement linked to Donald Trump could potentially grant the US significant control over Ukrainian subsoil resources (oil, gas, minerals), reconstruction funds (via 5-person commission with 3 US members holding veto), and require Ukraine to repay past aid before receiving revenue. Ukraine expected to respond within a week.
Russian Force Generation & Internal: Another contingent of "Akhmat" volunteers deployed. DOSAAF aims to double military-taught specialties (UAVs, cyber, robotics). Rosgvardia's combat role continues, receiving heavy weaponry. Adam Kadyrov awarded Rosgvardia medal. Reports of coercive recruitment/abuse persist (e.g., intellectually disabled man from Perm Krai allegedly forced into contract, abused, shot at, now missing - ASTRA). Protest against arming Kyiv held in Paris.
Ukrainian Mobilization & Training: First recruits under "Contract 18-24" program began practical training (RPG vs tank). Job posting seeks procurement specialist (preferably veteran with FPV experience) for UA organization.
Ukrainian Military Reorganization: Focus on forming new Army Corps (staffing, equipment, training) under Chief of General Staff Maj. Gen. Hnatov.
Internal Security (Ukraine): SBU detained organized crime group (led by Russian national Vitaliy Myslik "Ruskiy") in Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytskyi oblasts involved in extortion (targeting civilians and military personnel, including a National Guardsman). Weapons, grenades seized.
Zaporizhzhia City: Attack ongoing, reports of 15 drones targeting the city, explosions heard, air defense active (UA AF, Nikolaevsky Vanek, UA officials).
Dnipro City vicinity: UAVs present.
Kremenchuk vicinity: UAVs heading towards the city.
Poltava City vicinity: UAVs present.
Movement Vectors: UAVs moving from Sumy -> Poltava/Chernihiv; Kharkiv -> Poltava/West; Dnipropetrovsk -> Kirovohrad.
Kherson Oblast: Threat persists.
Russian Air Activity Alerts: Air danger mode declared in Lipetsk Oblast, RU (18:07 UTC). Several UAVs destroyed over Voronezh Oblast, RU, no damage/casualties reported (RU Governor, 18:07 UTC).
Recent Strikes & Claims:
Crimea (UA GUR Claim - HIGH SIGNIFICANCE): Successful drone strikes reported by GUR unit "Prymary" targeting Russian air defense and logistics assets, including:
Siversk Direction (RU Claim): Russian MoD claims destruction of two Ukrainian UAV command posts via artillery/scout actions (Video released 17:34 UTC).
Chernihiv Oblast (RU Claim): Claimed destruction of two Ukrainian P-18 radar stations near Pokrovske via Lancet drones (Mar 27).
Donetsk Oblast (RU Claim): Claimed FPV strike on UA armored vehicle near Kostiantynivka (>8km from LBS) (Mar 27).
Sumy City (RU Claim): Secondary detonation following Mar 24 strike near NPO Frunze plant claimed as confirmation of hit on ammunition depot in residential area.
Engels Airbase, RU (UA GHS Claim): Claimed destruction of 96 missiles following Mar 20 strike.
Makiivka, Occupied Donetsk (RU source): Video shows demining/recovery of vehicle (potentially overturned/submerged).
Ukrainian Counter-UAV:
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: 2 Russian UAVs shot down during the day (UA PvK Skhid, 17:31 UTC).
General: UA Air Defense Forces reportedly destroyed a Russian Zala Kub kamikaze drone using an FPV drone (Video, 18:29 UTC).
Kherson (Right Bank):2 civilians killed, 6 injured (incl. 2 medics) due to Russian shelling/drones. Secondary strike targeted medics. Russian strike hit Kherson railway station and infrastructure. President Zelenskyy instructed MoD to document this strike for US review. Ongoing heavy shelling reported (UA sources, 18:05 UTC). Over 40 impacts reported today (UA source, 18:11 UTC).
Naval Activity: 1 Russian Kalibr missile carrier (up to 4 missiles) reported active in the Black Sea.
Russian Air Capabilities: RU source shares image of Su-34, potentially over desert/airfield location (18:08 UTC).
III. Ground Combat Operations
Kharkiv Direction: 4 Russian assaults towards Vovchansk reported earlier (UGS 16:00). RU sources claim UA reinforces near Liptsi (~200 personnel) and Vovchansk (~100 personnel).
Kupyansk Direction:HIGH INTENSITY. 25 Russian assaults reported, 19 ongoing as of 16:00 local time. Main axes remain Stepova Novoselivka, Zahryzove, Petropavlivka, Pishchane.
Lyman Direction:HIGH INTENSITY / CRITICAL. 27 Russian attacks reported, 10 ongoing as of 16:00 local time. Russian forces advanced near Terny. Ukrainian assessment indicates Terny is almost fully occupied by Russian forces, situation worsening.
RU Claims (Rybar, Dnevnik Desantnika): Significant RU advances on west bank of Zherebets River near Novoliubivka-Kolodezi line, capturing UA positions N of Kolodezi. RU forces present SE of Nove ( закрепление unclear). Expanded control zone near Nevske/Novoliubivka. Fighting ongoing near Nadiia. RU forces claimed advance ~4km N of Ivanivka, capturing large strongpoint near Kryvosheieva gully. Advance towards Myrne from Yampolivka (1.5km claimed). Lozove remains under RU control despite UA counterattack attempts. These advances are reported as results over recent weeks, not a single push.
Siversk Direction: 3 Russian assaults near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske reported earlier (UGS 16:00). RU MoD claims destruction of 2 UA UAV CPs. RU claims advance towards Hryhorivka from Bilohorivka; advance S of Verkhnokamyanske (300m, 2 treelines). UA groups remain in SW Bilohorivka.
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar/Bakhmut): 2 Russian attempts repelled near Chasiv Yar, Predtechyne; 2 clashes ongoing as of 16:00 local time. Heavy fighting reported, RU 98th VDV active with drones (RU source video, 18:09 UTC).
Toretsk Direction:HIGH INTENSITY. 21 Russian attacks reported, 3 ongoing as of 16:00 local time. Russian sources claim advances. RU sources claim 68th Regt & 20th Div clearing Oleksandropil (Rozivka) and Panteleimonivka.
Ukrainian Claim: 20 Russian soldiers, including a platoon commander, surrendered to Azov Brigade forces near Toretsk (Video released 17:31 UTC).
Pokrovsk Direction:HIGHEST INTENSITY. 41 Russian attacks reported, 8 ongoing as of 16:00 local time. Axes include Panteleimonivka, Oleksandropil, Vodiane Druhe, Malynivka, Novooleksandrivka. Ukrainian forces reportedly expanded control zone by ~1km north of Kotlyne. UA SSO claims killing 4 RU soldiers via drone. Fighting persists in Uspenivka (RU claim). RU claims slight consolidation near Udachne. High RU FPV activity limits UA advance near Shevchenko.
South Donetsk / Velyka Novosilka / Vremivka Directions:
RU Claims (Voin DV, Colonelcassad): RU "Vostok" group advancing, disorganizing UA defense.
Near Rozlyv: Destroyed UA assault group with MaxxPro; Advance 1.5-2km, cleared 3 treelines, killed up to 15 UA personnel.
Near Kostiantynopil: Destroyed UA M113 with troops.
Near Vesele: Destroyed UA FV103 Spartan with troops; Advance 0.5km, killed >15 UA personnel.
Vilne Pole – Novosilka area: Advance 1km, occupied 3 treelines, >10 UA personnel killed. RU claims fighting ongoing in S. outskirts of Vilne Pole.
Novopavlivsk Direction (UGS): Ukrainian forces repelling 13 Russian attacks near Kostyantynopil, Rozlyv, Skudne (UGS 16:00).
Huliaipole Direction: 8 Russian assaults reported (UGS). RU forces claim broke through into Vilne Pole after liberating Pryvilne. RU claims targeted UA reinforcement group near Bohatyr and engineer groups near Huliaipole.
Russian Claim (VIDEO EVIDENCE): Russian forces claim advance >2.5km East of Kam'yanske, reaching new positions in Shcherbaky after an assault. Video purportedly shows BTRs advancing and a subsequent drone strike on a supporting UA tank.
Kherson (Right Bank): Heavy shelling continues. 2 civilians killed, 6 injured (incl. 2 medics). Secondary strike on medics. Strike hit Kherson railway station. President Zelenskyy instructed MoD documentation for US review. Over 40 impacts reported (UA source).
IV. Other Developments
Ukrainian Military Support: Kryvyi Rih delivered aid (pickups, UAVs, EW, thermals, etc.) to 27 UA units. UA 80th Air Assault Brigade personnel received awards.
Evacuation (Donetsk Oblast): Mandatory evacuation of families with children expanded to include villages in Kryvorizka, Dobropilska, Druzhkivska, and Lymanska Hromadas (approx. 500 children affected).
Russian Defense Industry/Technology: Development claimed of "Sifa" kamikaze drone (anti-helicopter/anti-UAV, EW resistant - RU Claim). Video compilation released showcasing "Upyr" kamikaze drone strikes on UA tank, AFV, pickup, equipment tower (RU sources, 18:06, 18:12 UTC).
Captured Personnel: RU sources report capture of Swiss mercenary Hugo Desirens (Dec 2024, Viktorovka, Kursk Oblast - RU claim) and a UA soldier (Oleksiy Stulnyk, 79th ODSB, Kramatorsk native, mobilized, captured by 33rd MSR / 20th MSD). UA sources report capture of 20 RU soldiers near Toretsk by Azov Brigade.
Cybersecurity/OPSEC: Reports (RU/UA sources) highlight potential leak of US security officials' personal data (emails, phone numbers), including alleged use of Russian email service (@mail.ru) by US SecDef Pete Hegseth and discussion of Yemen attack plans on Signal. Requires verification but highlights potential vulnerabilities. US suspends WTO contributions for 2025/26 due to budget cuts.
Moldova: Pro-Russian Gagauz autonomy head Evghenia Gutul remains under investigation for alleged illegal campaign financing; travel ban imposed. Pro-Russian opposition leader Paraska also banned from leaving Moldova. RU sources frame this as suppression of pro-Russian forces ahead of elections.
Iran: Showcases underground missile facility ("city-tunnel") with various missile types (Kheybarshekhan, Haj Qasem, Paveh, etc.), inspected by senior commanders. Analysis notes potential vulnerability due to storage methods.
Egypt: Excursion submersible reportedly sank near Hurghada with Russian tourists onboard; casualties reported (UA/RU sources).
