Military Situation Update: March 27, 2025, 17:00 UTC
(Incorporating updates received up to 15:01 UTC)
I. Strategic Assessments and High-Level Developments
Ukrainian Intelligence Assessment (President Zelenskyy): Russia is reportedly preparing for new offensive operations targeting Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Russia is accused of deliberately delaying negotiations to gain time for further territorial seizures. (HIGH SIGNIFICANCE)
Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod):
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi assessed increased Russian intensity along the Sumy border region during a visit. Ukrainian forces are conducting defensive operations and counter-attacks within the "Kursk" operational zone. Significant Russian losses claimed (>55,000 total over 7.5 months in this area). (HIGH SIGNIFICANCE)
Russian forces (claimed 51st PDP, 106th VDV) have demonstrably secured the MAPP Sudzha border checkpoint building (Kursk Oblast), raising the Russian flag. Geolocated imagery confirms RU presence. This represents a claimed advance of over 4km to the border line. Fighting reported ongoing near the checkpoint and on the approaches to Oleshnia. Russian sources claim further local successes near Huyevo, Hoholiivka (Kursk Oblast), and Basivka, Zhuravka, Vladymyrivka (Sumy Oblast). Russian security forces report completing the clearing of the MAPP Sudzha vicinity. (SIGNIFICANT, PARTIALLY CORROBORATED RU ADVANCE)
Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reports 8 combat clashes in the Kursk direction today (1 ongoing as of 16:00 Local Time), alongside significant Russian air and artillery strikes.
Russian assessments indicate Ukrainian forces remain in Oleshnia and Hornal (Kursk), with reserves in Sumy Oblast posing a threat for further cross-border attacks. Fighting continues within Popovka (Belgorod Oblast).
Overall Combat Intensity: Remains high across the front line, with 159 combat clashes reported by UGS as of 16:00 local time. Russian assault activity in March 2025 reported 17% higher than Feb 2025 (Source: DeepState).
Main Russian Ground Efforts: Concentrated on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, and Toretsk directions according to UGS.
International Military Support/Posture:
France/UK to send military delegations to Ukraine for planning assistance. Macron proposed multinational "deterrence forces" (sea, air, land) for Ukraine, potentially led by the UK, emphasizing the decision would not be Moscow's.
Next Ramstein format meeting scheduled for April 11, chaired by the UK Defence Secretary.
Poland reportedly launching military training programs for adults/schoolchildren and planning significant troop increases, citing preparations for potential war with Russia (Source: Politico via RU media).
Information Warfare:
Ukraine officially denies Russian MoD accusations of conducting drone strikes on Russian energy facilities (Kursk, Bryansk, Crimea) between March 25-27, calling them fabrications aimed at justifying the war.
Russia continues propaganda efforts, including claims of Ukrainian forces desecrating a church in Kozacha Loknya (Kursk Oblast) and highlighting alleged declining Ukrainian morale.
II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Aftermath of Russian Combined Attack (Night Mar 26-27):
Svitlychne (Kharkiv Obl.): 2 civilians injured by drone drop.
Nikopol District (Dnipropetrovsk Obl.): 1 civilian injured; infrastructure damage.
Ongoing Air Threats:
Russian reconnaissance UAV activity reported in Sumy Oblast (possible AD engagement).
Russian tactical aviation activity remains high in the east, northeast, and southeast, posing a continued threat of air-launched weapons (e.g., KABs).
Recent Strikes & Claims:
Russian Claims: Struck military airfield infrastructure, arms/UAV production, depots, manpower/hardware in 157 areas; shot down Ukrainian MiG-29, 2 JDAMs, 1 HIMARS projectile, 137 UAVs (RU MoD, Mar 27). Claimed destruction of UA UAV command post due to poor camouflage (RU source video).
Ukrainian Claims: Reported airstrikes on bridges near Grafovka and Annovka (Belgorod Oblast), assessed as logistics disruption (UA claim/video). UA pilot claimed successful strike on RU command post (Donetsk). Various drone strikes reported by UA units (47th OMBr, 81st Airmobile, "Flying Skull," SSO "REQUIEM GROUP" in Belgorod - unverified). Claimed downing of Russian Zala Kub loitering munition.
Naval Activity: 1 Russian Kalibr missile carrier (up to 4 missiles) reported active in the Black Sea.
III. Ground Combat Operations (Eastern & Southern Frontlines)
Kharkiv Direction: 4 Russian assaults towards Vovchansk reported (UGS 16:00). Russian sources claim forces are advancing confidently and repelling UA counterattacks. Russian sources also claim UA has reinforced Liptsi (~200 troops) and Vovchansk (~100 troops) after suffering losses from RU strikes.
Kupyansk Direction:HIGH INTENSITY. 25 Russian assaults reported, primarily near Stepova Novoselivka, Zahryzove, and towards Petropavlivka, Pishchane, etc. 19 clashes ongoing (UGS 16:00). DeepState previously reported RU advance near Pischane.
Lyman Direction:HIGH INTENSITY. 27 Russian attacks reported near Nadiia, Kolodyazi, Yampolivka, and towards Novoserhiivka, Nove, etc. 10 clashes ongoing (UGS 16:00). DeepState reported RU advance near Terny; UA assessment noted Terny almost fully occupied by RU forces. Russian claim of destroying Czech VT-72b BREM near Terny.
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar): 2 Russian attempts repelled near Chasiv Yar, Predtechyne; 2 clashes ongoing (UGS 16:00). Russian flanking attacks southwest of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk direction) potentially aim to threaten Konstantynivka and the rear of the Chasiv Yar defense (RU analysis).
Toretsk Direction:HIGH INTENSITY. 21 Russian attacks reported near Krymske, Ozaryanivka, Kurdyumivka, Toretsk, and towards Dyliivka, etc. 3 clashes ongoing (UGS 16:00). Russian sources claim advances NW of Druzhba, in Krymske, on outskirts of Panteleimonivka/Alexandropol, and in center of Tarasovka, potentially facilitating moves toward Konstantynivka/Chasiv Yar rear via H-20 highway.
Pokrovsk Direction:HIGHEST INTENSITY. 41 Russian attacks reported across numerous settlements (Panteleimonivka, Oleksandropil, Vodiane Druhe, etc.) and towards Malynivka, Novooleksandrivka. 8 clashes ongoing (UGS 16:00). Ukrainian forces reportedly expanded control zone by ~1km north of Kotlyne during positional fighting (Source: Slivkoviy Kapriz).
Novopavlivsk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelling 13 Russian attacks near Kostyantynopil, Rozlyv, Skudne, etc. (UGS 16:00).
Huliaipole Direction: 8 Russian assaults reported near Pryvilne, Novosilka, and towards Vilne Pole. Airstrikes on multiple settlements. Russian sources claim forces broke through into Vilne Pole after liberating Pryvilne. (NEW RU CLAIM)
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): Ukrainian forces stopped 4 Russian attacks towards Shcherbaky, Lobkove, Kam'yanske (UGS 16:00). Russian sources previously claimed occupying center of Lobkove.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): No active Russian assaults reported (UGS 16:00).
Kherson (Right Bank):
Updated Casualties:2 civilians killed, 6 injured (incl. 2 medical personnel) due to artillery shelling today. Medics were injured during a secondary strike. (UPDATED INFO)
Russian strike hit Kherson railway station and infrastructure, damaging a train wagon and utility lines. Ukrposhta services suspended due to shelling.
IV. Other Updates
Logistics: Russian crowdfunding appeals continue for basic equipment (vehicles, drones, EW, armor) for units on the South Donetsk front (e.g., 37th GMRB, 5th GTB), with evidence of deliveries. (NEW EVIDENCE)
Security Measures: Mykolaiv Oblast implementing enhanced security measures (checkpoint control, patrols) due to reported terror threats.
POW/MIA: Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters held meetings with families of the 422nd Rifle Battalion (42nd Mech Bde) regarding POW/MIA matters.
Leadership: CinC Syrskyi presented awards to troops in Sumy Oblast for actions in Kursk and Sumy defense.
