Military Situation Update: March 27, 2025, 13:31 UTC
(Incorporating updates received up to 13:31 UTC)
I. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Russian Combined Attack Aftermath (Night Mar 26-27):
Attack Details: Large-scale attack involved 1 Iskander-M ballistic missile (Voronezh Oblast, RU) and 86 drones (Shahed-type and imitators, from RU mainland & occupied Crimea).
Target Areas: Primarily Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv Oblasts. Secondary targets in Kyiv, Cherkasy, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia Oblasts. Confirmed impacts on civilian areas/infrastructure in Dnipro and Kharkiv.
Ukrainian Interceptions: Confirmed interception of 42 Shahed-type UAVs. Iskander-M not intercepted. 26 imitator drones "locationally lost." (Source: UA Air Force).
Impacts (Updated):
Dnipro City:3 civilians injured. Significant damage to residential buildings, enterprises, educational/cultural facilities, vehicles. Cleanup ongoing. (Sources: Dnipropetrovsk OVA, National Police).
Kharkiv City/Oblast:13 civilians injured (incl. 2 children) in Kyivskyi & Slobidskyi districts. Damage to at least 29 buildings, nearly 1,000 apartment windows, 134 common area windows. (Source: Kharkiv OVA via Syniehubov).
Zolochiv (Kharkiv Oblast):3 civilians injured, 5 acute stress reactions. 1 house destroyed, 12+ damaged, admin building, stadium, power lines hit. (Source: Kharkiv OVA via Syniehubov).
Svitlychne (Zolochiv community, Kharkiv Oblast): Russian drone dropped explosive on civilian car, injuring 2 civilians (58M, 39M). (Source: Kharkiv OVA via Syniehubov).
Nikopol District (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): 1 civilian injured; damage to residential buildings and infrastructure.
Ongoing Air Threats (As of 13:31 UTC):
Ballistic Missile Threat: Declared for relevant Oblasts (Source: UA Air Force - Remains Active).
Kharkiv Oblast: Threat of strike UAVs persists. Threat of aviation weapons declared. (Source: UA Air Force - Remains Active).
Sumy Oblast: Threat from guided aerial bombs (KABs) declared. (Source: UA Air Force - Remains Active).
Donetsk Oblast: Threat of aviation weapons declared (Source: UA Air Force - NEW).
Russian tactical aviation activity remains high in the east/northeast/southeast, posing a continued threat of air-launched weapons.
Russian Airstrikes / Claims (Past 24h - RU MoD Mar 27 Briefing & Updates):
UA General Staff reported RU aviation strikes against multiple settlements across Sumy, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts (Mar 26).
Russian MoD Claims (Mar 27):
Struck infrastructure of a military airfield, production buildings of an arms enterprise, and workshops for manufacturing strike UAVs, AFU supply depot, missile/ammo depots, manpower/hardware in 157 areas. (RU CLAIM)
Air defence shot down a Ukrainian MiG-29 aircraft, 2 U.S.-made JDAM guided aerial bombs, 1 HIMARS MLRS projectile, and 137 UAVs. (RU CLAIM)
Continued Ukrainian attacks cited: Bryansk power line (Mar 26), Crimea gas storage (Mar 26 - attempt claimed), Bryansk substation (Mar 27). (RU CLAIM)
Ukrainian Strikes / Claims:
UA General Staff claims destruction of 96 Russian ALCMs and fuel at Engels-2 Airbase (Mar 20). Claim requires verification.
UA SSO "REQUIEM GROUP" claims FPV strikes in Belgorod Oblast hitting 4 BM-21 Grad MLRS, repair equipment, vehicles, tanks, and personnel. (Source: STERNENKO). Claim requires verification.
Downing of a Russian Zala Kub loitering munition reported by UA Air Defense Forces. (Source: STERNENKO).
UA interception of a Russian "Darts" drone carrying ordnance near Makiivka reported by Russian sources. (Source: Mash na Donbasse).
Video evidence of UA 47th OMBr ("STRIKS" Btn) drone strike eliminating Russian infantry. (Source: BUTUSOV PLYUS).
Video evidence of UA 81st Airmobile Brigade drone strikes on Siversk direction. (Source: Operativnyi ZSU).
Ukrainian Pilot Claim (MiG-29 "Freed"): Claims recent successful strike on RU command post in Donetsk direction using Western-supplied bombs at low altitude. Claims dozens of downed missiles/drones historically. (Source: UA General Staff via 114th TacAv Bde - NEW DETAIL/CLAIM).
Ukrainian F-16 Pilot Claims (Alleged First Public Interview): Pilot states missions require close approach, facing RU missile threats, but RU pilots now avoid close air combat. (Source: BUTUSOV PLYUS - REQUIRES VERIFICATION).
Russian Law Enforcement Casualties (RU Territory): 1 Russian police officer injured by a UAV attack in Kursk Oblast. (Source: TASS).
Naval Activity: 1 Russian Kalibr missile carrier (up to 4 missiles) reported active in the Black Sea.
II. Ground Combat and Border Operations
Overall Intensity (Mar 26): High, 224 combat clashes reported by the Ukrainian General Staff. Russian assault activity in March 2025 reported 17% higher than Feb 2025 (Source: DeepState).
Main Russian Efforts: Focused on Pokrovsk, Toretsk, South Donetsk (Vremivka/Novopavlivsk), Kursk/Belgorod borders, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia (Orikhiv).
Ukrainian Assessment (CinC Syrskyi visit to Sumy Oblast): Increased RU intensity noted. UA forces conducting defensive operations within the "Kursk" operational zone, including counter-attacks. Reserves repositioned. Significant RU losses claimed over 7.5 months (>55,000 total casualties). Aim to maintain "sanitary zone" on RU territory. (Source: UA General Staff). HIGH SIGNIFICANCE.
Russian Assessment/Claims:
Situation on Belgorod border "extremely serious." Acknowledge UA attempts to isolate area/disrupt logistics. Claim RU defensive lines holding but UA attacks continue, particularly in Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Popovka area). Claim UA lost a BREM near Popovka. (Sources: Dva Mayora, Starshe Eddy, Kotsnews, Poddubny, Rybar). Belgorod Governor confirms situation tense but stable.
MAPP Sudzha (Kursk Oblast): Multiple Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika, Colonelcassad, RVvoenkor, Poddubny, Slyvochnyi Kapriz, Kotsnews, DvMayor, VoenkorKotenok, Alex Parker) consistently claim Russian forces, specifically Tula paratroopers (51st PDP, 106th VDV Div), have entered and secured the border checkpoint building, raising the Russian flag. Geolocated imagery and multiple videos support claim of RU presence at the damaged checkpoint building. Claimed advance of >4km along Sudzha-Yunakivka road to the border line. Fighting reported ongoing near the checkpoint against UA reserves. (SIGNIFICANT, VISUALLY CORROBORATED RU CLAIM/ADVANCE). RU sources frame this as "liberation" and finishing clearance to the border.
RU MoD Claims (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy - Mar 27): "Sever" Group units conducted offensive actions, inflicting defeat on formations of UA Mechanized, 3x DShV, Presidential, and TDF brigades near Hoholivka, Hornal, Huevo, Oleshnia (Kursk Oblast). Air/Arty strikes hit UA forces in these locations and multiple settlements in Sumy Oblast (Basivka, Bilovody, etc.). Claimed UA losses in Kursk direction (24h): >190 personnel, 5 AFVs, 7 vehicles, 2 arty, 1 mortar, 1 EW station, 1 UAV CP. In Belgorod direction (24h): hits on 2x Mech Bde, 1x Assault Regt, 1x TDF Bde near Prokhody, Uhroyidy, Stepok, Mykhaylivske (Sumy Oblast). UA losses: up to 80 troops, 1 AFV, 1 vehicle, 2 arty. (RU CLAIMS).
Other Kursk Claims: RU claims clearing Hoholiivka (RVvoenkor). Pressure on southern Hoholiivka (Dnevnik Desantnika). RU analysis suggests UA presence hampered by RU control of heights in Sumy Oblast, suggests RU goal may be creating safety zone in Sumy Oblast (Kotsnews). RU claims advancing in Sumy Oblast (Colonelcassad - NEW CLAIM).
Belgorod Claims: Fighting ongoing inPopovka (low ground); RU claims repelling UA attempts, including vehicle assaults. (Sources: Dva Mayora, Starshe Eddy, Poddubny).
POW Claim: RU sources (WarGonzo) released video purportedly showing the capture of a British national (James Scott Anderson) in Kursk Oblast by the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade in late November 2024. Individual reportedly sentenced to 19 years in RU. (NEW CLAIM/VIDEO)
Eastern & Southern Frontlines (Primarily Mar 26-27 data):
Kharkiv (OTU Kharkiv Report, Mar 27 09:00): Situation complex. 153 RU kamikaze drones, 708 shelling incidents (past 24h). Two RU attempts to breach defenses near Vovchansk repelled. Claimed RU losses: 106 personnel (58 KIA), significant equipment losses. 91 RU shelters, 1 fuel storage, 2 ammo depots destroyed. (Source: OTU Kharkiv). UA training activities ongoing (Source: OTU Kharkiv).
Kupyansk: RU assaults near Holubivka, Zahryzove repelled/ongoing (UGS). Russian forces advanced near Pischane (DeepState). Ukrainian forces repelled RU forces from Kotlyne (DeepState). RU MoD ("Zapad" Group) claims improved tactical situation, hits on UA forces near Kondrashivka, Bohuslavka, Novoplatonovka (Kharkiv Oblast), UA losses >210 troops, 9 arty (incl. FH-70). (RU CLAIMS).
Lyman:
UGS (Mar 26): 14 RU attacks repelled.
DeepState (Mar 27): Russian forces advanced near Terny. Ukrainian assessment notes Terny is almost fully occupied by RU forces following constant pressure. Situation worsening. RU pressing Yampolivka, attempting to cut logistics from Torske. (SIGNIFICANT UA ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF RU ADVANCE).
DeepState (Mar 27): RU pressing towards Katerynivka, attempting advances towards Nove and Zelena Dolyna. Fighting ongoing.
RU Claims (Dnevnik Desantnika, Mar 27): Advance W of Nevske (400m), repelling UA counter-attacks. Advance N of Ivanivka (4km), captured strongpoint near Kryvosheeva balka, developing offensive on Nove. Advance near Yampolivka towards Myrne (1.5km), claiming liberation. Ongoing offensive towards Krasnyi Lyman N flank. Destroyed UA PVD in Zarichne, UAV control point. Claimed >3 km advance west of Zherebets river near Novoe (Krasnyi Lyman area).
RU MoD ("Zapad" Group, Mar 27): Claims hits on UA forces near Yampil (Donetsk Oblast). (RU CLAIM).
Siversk: 11 RU attacks stopped near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Ivano-Daryivka (UGS, Mar 26). UA 81st Airmobile Brigade active with drones. RU MoD ("Yug" Group) claims hits near Siversk. (RU CLAIM).
Kramatorsk (Chasiv Yar): 4 RU attacks repelled (UGS, Mar 26). RU storming actions continue. RU MoD ("Yug" Group) claims hits near Chasiv Yar, Pleshchiivka, Minkivka. (RU CLAIM).
Toretsk: 20 RU attacks (UGS, Mar 26); urban fighting ongoing.
RU Claims (Rybar/Dva Mayora Analysis): RU advancing on flanks: NW of Druzhba; regained most of Krymske, fighting in Fomikha; reached outskirts of Panteleimonivka & Aleksandropol; pushed UA from central Tarasovka. Potential threat to Konstantynivka/Chasiv Yar rear via advance from Zelenopil/Sukha Balka to Romanivka/H-20 highway.
RU MoD ("Yug" Group, Mar 27): Claims hits near Konstantynivka, Platonivka. Claimed UA losses for Yug Group: >280 troops, 1 tank, 5 AFVs (incl. M113, Bradley), 8 vehicles, 2 ammo depots. (RU CLAIMS). RU source highlights ongoing need for drones/comms for artillery near Kostiantynivka (Source: Poddubny/Kots - NEW DETAIL). RU source claims UA destroyed church in Toretsk (Source: WarGonzo - PROPAGANDA/CLAIM).
Pokrovsk:Highest intensity (88 clashes) reported Mar 26. RU attacks repelled near multiple settlements (UGS). UA SSO captured 9 RU soldiers.
RU Claims (Dnevnik Desantnika): Fighting ongoing in Uspenivka (UA still present). RU positions strengthened near Udachne. Partial RU control of Solone (half grey zone). Difficult RU advance near Shevchenko due to UA FPV activity. UA drone control over RU logistics near Kurakhove.
RU MoD ("Tsentr" Group, Mar 27): Claims improved tactical situation, hits on UA forces near Mirolyubovka, Dimitrov, Krasnoarmeysk, Kotlino, Zverevo, Alekseyevka (Donetsk Oblast). Claimed UA losses: up to 465 troops, 2 AFVs, 2 vehicles, 3 arty. (RU CLAIMS).
South Donetsk (Vremivka/Novopavlivsk/Huliaipole/Zaporizhzhia):
RU MoD ("Vostok" Group, Mar 27): Claims continued advance, hits on UA forces near Konstantinopol, Bogatyr, Komar, Otradnoye (Donetsk Oblast). Claimed UA losses: up to 135 troops, 3 AFVs, 1 vehicle, 3 arty. (RU CLAIM).
RU MoD ("Dnepr" Group, Mar 27): Claims hits on UA forces near Novodanilovka, Lobkovoye, Stepnogorsk, Novopokrovka (Zaporizhzhia region), and Antonovka (Kherson region). Claimed UA losses: up to 80 troops, 5 vehicles, 1 arty, 1 EW station, 1 ammo depot. (RU CLAIM).
RU sources (RVvoenkor) claim RU forces broke through into Vilne Pole after liberating Pryvilne, attacking from the east. (RU CLAIM)
Kherson:
Russian shelling continues. Confirmed impacts in Kherson city resulted in 2 civilian deaths (M/F). An ambulance crew responding to assist a wounded 59M was shelled; 2 medical personnel (33F, 63M) injured (blast injuries/contusion). All hospitalized. (Sources: RBC-Ukraine, Operativnyi ZSU, Kherson OVA).
III. Assessed Russian Strategic Objectives
Ukrainian military assessment (Major Protsapas via Tsaplienko) suggests Russia aims to occupy Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Odesa to connect the Crimean land bridge with occupied Transnistria (Moldova). Claims RU forces are preparing bridgeheads but face high losses and limited resources. (UA ASSESSMENT/CLAIM)
IV. Ukrainian Logistics and Support
Regional Aid: Kryvyi Rih Defense Council delivered a large aid package (50 million UAH value) to 27 Ukrainian military units, including 15 pickups, 9 night-capable 'Interceptor' UAVs, 187 quadcopters (some with night vision), 44 EW devices, 20 thermal sights, 24 generators, training equipment, and other supplies. Recipient units span various brigades (17th Tank, 129th TDF, 77th Airmobile, 25th Airborne, 3rd & 5th Assault, etc.) and specialized units (GUR, RERC South, Marines). (Source: Oleksandr Vilkul - SIGNIFICANT LOGISTICAL SUPPORT).
Volunteer Support: Recognition of volunteer efforts in fundraising for FPV drones using digital tools, highlighting the role of organizations like Nova Poshta in logistics. (Source: STERNENKO).
V. International Developments & Support
Potential Troop Deployments:
Greece outlined conditions for potential peacekeeper deployment: UN mandate, ceasefire agreement, no deployment on RU territory, clear exit strategy if ceasefire fails. (Source: RBC-Ukraine via Ekathimerini).
Russian sources (Rybar citing Reuters) claim European countries are reconsidering sending ground troops, seeking "more reasonable" actions due to the worsening situation for Kyiv and US administration stance. Suggests initial calls were bluster aimed at pushing Poland. (RU ANALYSIS/CLAIM)
NATO Activity: France reinforcing its military presence in Romania (Cincu base) with 300 troops (152nd Inf Regt) for 4 months of training with NATO allies. Part of Mission "Aigle" aimed at strengthening NATO's eastern flank. Focus on interoperability, mechanized/urban combat, C-UAS, river crossings, digital artillery systems (ASCA). Major exercise "Dacia Spring" planned for June 2025 involving 3k troops from Collective Defense Battle Group (CDBG). (Source: Dva Mayora).
Swedish Defense Increase: Sweden plans major rearmament, increasing defense spending to 3.5% GDP by 2030 (exceeding NATO's 2% target). Military support framework for Ukraine to increase from ~2.5 bln USD to ~4 bln USD for 2025. (Source: RBC-Ukraine).
US Media Funding: USAGM restored funding for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) until Sep 2025 following a court order. (Source: ASTRA).
