Military Situation Update: March 27, 2025, 12:31 UTC
(Incorporating updates received up to 12:31 UTC)
I. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Russian Combined Attack Aftermath (Night Mar 26-27):
Attack Details: Large-scale attack involved 1 Iskander-M ballistic missile (Voronezh Oblast, RU) and 86 drones (Shahed-type and imitators, from RU mainland & occupied Crimea).
Target Areas: Primarily Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv Oblasts. Secondary targets in Kyiv, Cherkasy, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia Oblasts. Confirmed impacts on civilian areas/infrastructure in Dnipro and Kharkiv.
Ukrainian Interceptions: Confirmed interception of 42 Shahed-type UAVs. Iskander-M not intercepted. 26 imitator drones "locationally lost." (Source: UA Air Force).
Impacts (Updated):
Dnipro City:3 civilians injured. Significant damage to residential buildings, enterprises, educational/cultural facilities, vehicles. Cleanup ongoing. (Sources: Dnipropetrovsk OVA, National Police).
Kharkiv City/Oblast:13 civilians injured (incl. 2 children) in Kyivskyi & Slobidskyi districts (UPDATE - previously 11). Damage to at least 29 buildings (UPDATE), nearly 1,000 apartment windows, 134 common area windows. (Source: Kharkiv OVA via Syniehubov).
Zolochiv (Kharkiv Oblast):3 civilians injured, 5 acute stress reactions (UPDATE). 1 house destroyed, 12+ damaged, admin building, stadium, power lines hit. (Source: Kharkiv OVA via Syniehubov).
Nikopol District (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): 1 civilian injured; damage to residential buildings and infrastructure.
Ongoing Air Threats (As of 12:31 UTC):
Ballistic Missile Threat: Declared for relevant Oblasts. (Source: UA Air Force - NEW).
Kharkiv Oblast: Threat of strike UAVs persists. Threat of aviation weapons declared. (Source: UA Air Force - NEW).
Sumy Oblast: Threat from guided aerial bombs (KABs) declared. (Source: UA Air Force - NEW). Threat from high-speed target previously declared, appears clear.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Threat from guided aerial bombs (KABs) previously declared, cleared (Source: UA Air Force).
Russian tactical aviation activity remains high in the east/northeast/southeast, posing a continued threat of air-launched weapons.
Russian Airstrikes / Claims (Past 24h):
UA General Staff reported RU aviation strikes against multiple settlements across Sumy, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts.
Russian MoD Claims:
Continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure (Bryansk power line Mar 26, Crimea gas storage Mar 26, Bryansk substation Mar 27). (Source: RU MoD, TASS, RVvoenkor, Dva Mayora, Colonelcassad - CONFIRMED RU CLAIM).
Shot down a Ukrainian MiG-29 aircraft. (Source: TASS - NEW RU CLAIM).
Struck a Ukrainian airfield, production buildings of an arms enterprise, and workshops for manufacturing strike UAVs. (Source: TASS - NEW RU CLAIM).
Ukrainian Strikes / Claims:
UA General Staff claims destruction of 96 Russian ALCMs and fuel at Engels-2 Airbase (Mar 20). Claim requires verification.
UA SSO "REQUIEM GROUP" claims FPV strikes in Belgorod Oblast hitting 4 BM-21 Grad MLRS, repair equipment, vehicles, tanks, and personnel. (Source: STERNENKO). Claim requires verification.
Downing of a Russian Zala Kub loitering munition reported by UA Air Defense Forces. (Source: STERNENKO).
UA interception of a Russian "Darts" drone carrying ordnance near Makiivka reported by Russian sources. (Source: Mash na Donbasse).
Video evidence of UA 47th OMBr ("STRIKS" Btn) drone strike eliminating Russian infantry. (Source: BUTUSOV PLYUS).
Video evidence of UA 81st Airmobile Brigade drone strikes on Siversk direction. (Source: Operativnyi ZSU - NEW).
Russian Law Enforcement Casualties (RU Territory): 1 Russian police officer injured by a UAV attack in Kursk Oblast. (Source: TASS).
Naval Activity: 1 Russian Kalibr missile carrier (up to 4 missiles) reported active in the Black Sea.
II. Ground Combat and Border Operations
Overall Intensity (Mar 26): High, 224 combat clashes reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
Main Russian Efforts: Focused on Pokrovsk, Toretsk, South Donetsk (Vremivka/Novopavlivsk), Kursk/Belgorod borders, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia (Orikhiv).
Kursk & Belgorod Border Operations (Ongoing UA Operations):
Ukrainian Assessment (CinC Syrskyi visit to Sumy Oblast): Increased RU intensity noted. UA forces conducting defensive operations within the "Kursk" operational zone, including counter-attacks. Reserves repositioned. Significant RU losses claimed over 7.5 months (>55,000 total casualties). Aim to maintain "sanitary zone" on RU territory. (Source: UA General Staff). HIGH SIGNIFICANCE.
Russian Assessment/Claims:
Situation on Belgorod border "extremely serious." Acknowledge UA attempts to isolate area/disrupt logistics (e.g., claimed UA strikes on bridges - Source: Alex Parker Returns - NEW RU CLAIM/TACTIC). Claim RU defensive lines holding but UA attacks (artillery, drones, infantry/vehicle assaults) continue, particularly in Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Popovka area). Claim UA lost a BREM recovery vehicle in an overnight assault attempt near Popovka. (Source: Dva Mayora, Starshe Eddy, Kotsnews, Poddubny, Rybar). Belgorod Governor confirms situation remains tense but relatively stable. (Source: RVvoenkor).
Kursk fighting intense. UGS reported repelling 25 RU assaults (Mar 26). Russian sources claim advances near Guevo and pressure on Oleshnya.
MAPP Sudzha (Kursk Oblast): Multiple Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika, Colonelcassad, RVvoenkor, Poddubny, Slyvochnyi Kapriz, Kotsnews) claim Russian forces, specifically Tula paratroopers (51st PDP, 106th VDV Div), have entered and are clearing/have secured the border checkpoint building, raising the Russian flag. Geolocated imagery supports claim of RU presence at the building. Claimed advance of >4km along Sudzha-Yunakivka road to the border line. Fighting reported ongoing near the checkpoint against UA reserves. (SIGNIFICANT RU CLAIM/POTENTIAL ADVANCE).
Other Kursk Claims: RU claims clearing Hoholiivka (RVvoenkor). Pressure on southern Hoholiivka (Dnevnik Desantnika). RU analysis suggests UA presence hampered by RU control of heights in Sumy Oblast, suggests RU goal may be creating safety zone in Sumy Oblast (Kotsnews).
Belgorod Claims: Street fighting previously reported in Demydovka. Fighting ongoing inPopovka (low ground); RU claims repelling UA attempts, including vehicle assaults. (Sources: Dva Mayora, Starshe Eddy, Poddubny).
Russian Casualty Context (Kursk): Media report citing deleted RU MoE data claims high casualty figures in Kursk Oblast attributed to "Ukrainian occupation." (Source: Sever.Realii). Video purports to show dog guarding deceased owners in liberated Kursk settlement (Colonelcassad).
Eastern & Southern Frontlines (Primarily Mar 26 data unless specified):
Kharkiv (OTU Kharkiv Report, Mar 27 09:00): Situation complex. 153 RU kamikaze drones, 708 shelling incidents (past 24h). Two RU attempts to breach defenses near Vovchansk repelled. Claimed RU losses: 106 personnel (58 KIA), significant equipment losses. 91 RU shelters, 1 fuel storage, 2 ammo depots destroyed. (Source: OTU Kharkiv).
Kupyansk: RU assaults near Holubivka, Zahryzove repelled/ongoing (UGS). Russian forces advanced near Pischane (DeepState). Ukrainian forces repelled RU forces from Kotlyne (DeepState).
Lyman:
UGS (Mar 26): 14 RU attacks repelled.
DeepState (Mar 27): Russian forces advanced near Terny. Ukrainian assessment notes Terny is almost fully occupied by RU forces following constant pressure. Situation worsening. RU pressing Yampolivka, attempting to cut logistics from Torske. (SIGNIFICANT UA ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF RU ADVANCE).
DeepState (Mar 27): RU pressing towards Katerynivka, attempting advances towards Nove and Zelena Dolyna. Fighting ongoing.
RU Claims (Mar 27): Advance W of Nevske (400m), repelling UA counter-attacks. Advance N of Ivanivka (4km), captured strongpoint near Kryvosheeva balka, developing offensive on Nove. Advance near Yampolivka towards Myrne (1.5km), claiming liberation. Ongoing offensive towards Krasnyi Lyman N flank. Destroyed UA PVD in Zarichne, UAV control point. (Source: Dnevnik Desantnika). Claimed >3 km advance west of Zherebets river near Novoe (Krasnyi Lyman area), assault groups taking positions under fire (Source: Slyvochnyi Kapriz).
Siversk: 11 RU attacks stopped near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Ivano-Daryivka (UGS, Mar 26). UA 81st Airmobile Brigade active with drones.
Toretsk: 20 RU attacks (UGS, Mar 26); urban fighting ongoing.
RU Claims (Rybar/Dva Mayora Analysis): RU advancing on flanks: NW of Druzhba; regained most of Krymske, fighting in Fomikha; reached outskirts of Panteleimonivka & Aleksandropol; pushed UA from central Tarasovka. Potential threat to Konstantynivka/Chasiv Yar rear via advance from Zelenopil/Sukha Balka to Romanivka/H-20 highway.
Pokrovsk:Highest intensity (88 clashes) reported Mar 26. RU attacks repelled near multiple settlements (UGS). UA SSO captured 9 RU soldiers.
RU Claims (Dnevnik Desantnika): Fighting ongoing in Uspenivka (UA still present). RU positions strengthened near Udachne. Partial RU control of Solone (half grey zone). Difficult RU advance near Shevchenko due to UA FPV activity. UA drone control over RU logistics near Kotlyno/Uspenivka-Solone. RU air/arty active.
UA Medical Evacuation (NEW): Successful evacuation of 4 wounded UA soldiers (1st Jaeger Btn, 152nd Jaeger Bde) under heavy RU mortar and FPV drone fire. Kirpi MRAP hit ~10 times, sustained 2 flat tires, medics/driver wounded, but mission completed. (Source: BUTUSOV PLYUS).
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk / Vremivka: 25 RU attacks reported (UGS, Mar 26).
RU Claims (Colonelcassad/don_partizan): Advances near Rozlyv (RU secured eastern outskirts). Continued intense fighting near Vesele and Oleksiivka (UA counter-attacking). RU progress from Pryvilne towards Vilne Pole (RU secured eastern part). Splitting UA defenses near Novosilka with a 500m advance. RU storming Vilne Pole. Video shows destroyed UA equipment near liberated Burlatske, claims UA failed to retake it (Colonelcassad - NEW).
Huliaipole: 16 RU attacks stopped (UGS, Mar 26).
Zaporizhzhia (Orikhiv): 9 RU assaults repelled (UGS, Mar 26). Russian forces advanced near the Dniproenerhiya area (DeepState). UA 65th Brigade medics report intense evacuation conditions, high tempo, vehicle damage (shrapnel, tire punctures) near Robotyne (Source: Sily Oborony Pivdnya - NEW DETAIL).
Kherson (Prydniprovsky): 2 RU attacks stopped (UGS, Mar 26). Positional fighting. Effective UA drone strikes reported. Massed Russian shelling hit central Kherson city, injuring 1 civilian (56M) and killing 1 civilian (preliminary), causing partial power outages, stopping trolleybus traffic. (Source: Kherson MVA Head Mrochko via RBC-Ukraina, ASTRA, Operativnyi ZSU - NEW/UPDATE).
III. Other Significant Military and Political Developments
Potential Russian Spring Offensive: President Zelenskyy reiterated Russia is preparing for a new offensive, potentially targeting Sumy and Kharkiv. He suggested UA operations in Kursk may have disrupted these plans. Intelligence reportedly shared with allies. (Sources: Tsaplienko, Operativno ZSU, Le Figaro, Alex Parker Returns, Kotsnews). HIGH STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE.
International Military Aid & Support:
France: New aid package announced: Milan ATGM, MICA SAM, Mistral MANPADS, AMX-10RC, VAB APCs, strike drones, ammunition, intelligence sharing. (Source: Podduchny). SIGNIFICANT.
Sweden: Plans to increase defense spending (~3.5% GDP by 2030) and increase support for Ukraine (€2.5bn to €4bn in 2025). (Source: Operatyvnyi ZSU). SIGNIFICANT.
Potential Foreign Troop Deployment (Discussion): European military planners reportedly considering scenarios (deployment along Dnipro, training roles). (Source: AP via RBC-Ukraine, Operatsia Z). Russian MFA characterized this as London/Paris masking intervention plans. (Source: TASS). HIGH POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANCE.
Diplomatic Developments:
Riyadh Talks:
RU MFA Zakharova: Russia expects US/UA adherence to energy infrastructure strike agreements but doesn't trust Kiev. Consultations to continue. (Source: TASS).
UA Presidential Office Deputy Head Zhovkva: Russia refused to discuss the prohibition of strikes on civilian objects during the talks, claiming no mandate. (Source: RBC-Ukraine, Operatyvnyi ZSU - UPDATE).
France/US: Macron spoke with Trump ahead of Paris Ukraine support summit. (Source: RBC-Ukraina).
Russia-Iran: RU Duma Committee may consider strategic partnership treaty ratification in April. (Source: TASS - NEW).
Moldova: Political tensions surrounding Gagauzia head Gutsul (detained, court hearing scheduled, appeals to RU/TR presidents). Monitor for regional stability impacts. (Source: TASS, WarGonzo).
North Korean Support (Claim): Alleged deployment of ~3000 additional NK soldiers (Jan-Feb), increased weapon shipments (170mm Koksan SPGs, 240mm MLRS, rockets, ammo). (Source: SK JCS via AP, ASTRA). Requires verification.
Russian Tactics & Equipment: Continued heavy use of KABs, FPV/kamikaze drones. Reported use of UGVs (Kharkiv). Fiber-optic FPV drones confirmed used by RU (Kursk, Pokrovsk, Toretsk), observation of widespread presence due to frost (Arkhangel Spetsnaza - NEW DETAIL). Claimed introduction of Pantsir-SM-SV system. Prototype laser anti-drone rifle demonstrated. (Source: TASS - NEW).
FPV Drone Surge: Confirmed delivery of 740 FPV drones via crowdfunding (Sternenko Foundation) to multiple specific frontline units including 81st Airmobile, 5th Border Guard, 28th Mech, 56th Motorized Inf, 164th Radio Tech, 110th Territorial Def, 71st Jaeger, 57th Motorized Inf, 34th Coastal Def, GUR unit. (SIGNIFICANT LOGISTICAL/TACTICAL DEVELOPMENT).
Reported use of fiber-optic FPV drones (Azov). Effective FPV strikes (e.g., "Magyar's Birds").
Recruitment drive for 59th Unmanned Systems Assault Brigade emphasizing drone/robotic complex assaults. (Source: UA General Staff).
Potential Change in Identification Markings (RU Source Claim): Imminent change alleged: yellow tape on both shoulders/helmet for personnel; upward arrow in square symbol for vehicles. Allegedly linked to new offensive plans. (Source: Dva Mayora - NEW / HIGH SIGNIFICANCE IF TRUE).
NATO/Regional Activity:
Polish Exercise: "Rozsadny Żbik – 2025" (Mar 19-30) ongoing near RU/BY borders, simulating defense against RU/BY attack (incl. Iskander, Msta-S, Uragan, Buk, Ka-52 etc.). Assessing fortifications. Includes counter-offensive scenarios. Training incorporates lessons from Ukraine conflict. (Source: Rybar, Dva Mayora - NEW).
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP): IAEA head Grossi estimates potential restart timeline: months for one reactor, over a year for all six, complex but possible. (Source: RBC-Ukraina - NEW CONTEXT).
Internal Issues:
Russia: Reported issues accessing Yandex services (Music, Navigator, Maps) (Source: TASS - NEW). Psychological support chat for soldiers' families expanding to 24/7 operation (Source: Basurin - NEW). Arrest of alleged RDK recruiter in Kuzbass (Dva Mayora).
Ukraine: Anti-corruption investigation regarding ex-Kyiv official Denys Komarnytsky allegedly fleeing Ukraine with assistance (possibly using vehicle marked "200"). National Police confirm anti-corruption efforts. (Source: RBC-Ukraina - NEW). Humanitarian partnership signed between Dnipropetrov
