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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-03-27 10:02:01Z
11 months ago
Previous (2025-03-27 09:32:04Z)

Military Situation Update: March 27, 2025, 10:01 UTC

(Incorporating updates received up to 10:01 UTC)

I. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity

  • Russian Combined Attack (Night Mar 26-27):
    • Confirmed: 1 Iskander-M ballistic missile (Voronezh Oblast, RU), 86 drones (Shahed-type and imitators) launched (RU mainland & occupied Crimea).
    • Targets: Primarily Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv Oblasts. Also reported impacts/activity targeting Kyiv, Cherkasy, Poltava (Kremenchuk), Khmelnytskyi (Starokostiantyniv), Vinnytsia Oblasts (Source: Colonelcassad 09:33 UTC).
    • Ukrainian Air Defence Interception: Confirmed 42 Shahed-type UAVs intercepted. Iskander-M not intercepted. 26 imitator drones "locationally lost". (Source: UA Air Force).
    • Detailed RU Claimed Strike Log (Mar 26-27): Includes timings and locations (UMPK, RZSO, Geran drones) across Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, Kherson Oblasts. Includes claimed Geran strike video in Dnipropetrovsk (Source: Colonelcassad 09:33 UTC). Requires verification, aligns with widespread nature of attack.
    • Impacts (Updated):
      • Kharkiv City/Oblast: 11 injured (Source: Kharkiv OVA, 09:11 UTC); significant damage to residential buildings, infrastructure, warehouses, power lines, gas pipe.
      • Dnipro City: 3 injured; damage to enterprises, educational/cultural facilities, residential buildings.
      • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Power/communication outages reported.
      • Nikopol District: 1 injured; damage to residential buildings, infrastructure.
  • Ongoing Air Threats (Morning Mar 27):
    • High-speed target detected in Sumy Oblast (09:11 UTC, UA Air Force).
    • Missile threat declared for Zaporizhzhia Oblast (09:46 UTC, UA Air Force, Zaporizhzhia OVA).
    • Russian tactical aviation active in east/northeast, threat of air-launched weapons persists.
  • Claimed Ukrainian Strike (Engels-2 Airbase, Mar 20):
    • UA General Staff claims destruction of 96 Russian air-launched cruise missiles and fuel. Number requires verification.
  • Claimed Ukrainian Drone Strikes (Belgorod Oblast, RU):
    • UA SSO "REQUIEM GROUP" claims FPV strikes hitting 4 BM-21 Grad MLRS, repair equipment, 5 light vehicles, 2 tanks, and personnel. (Source: STERNENKO, 09:01 UTC).
  • Ukrainian Drone Attack (Kursk Oblast, RU):
    • 1 Russian police officer injured due to UAV attack. (Source: TASS 09:34 UTC).
  • Claimed Russian Strike (Cherkasy Airfield):
    • RU source claims destruction of hangars, equipment, UAV facilities, radar. Requires verification.
  • Naval Activity:
    • 1 Russian Kalibr carrier (up to 4 missiles) reported in the Black Sea.

II. Ground Combat and Border Operations

  • Overall Intensity (Mar 26): High, 224 combat clashes reported (Source: UA General Staff).
  • Main Russian Efforts: Pokrovsk, Toretsk, South Donetsk (Vremivka/Novopavlivsk), Kursk/Belgorod borders, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia (Orikhiv).
  • Kursk & Belgorod Border Operations (Ongoing UA Operations):
    • Kursk: Intense fighting continues. RU sources claim advances near Guevo and pressure on Oleshnya (Colonelcassad, 09:19 UTC). RU MoD claims repelling UA attacks, inflicting losses of >190 personnel, 5 armored vehicles, 2 artillery pieces in last 24 hrs (TASS 09:55 UTC). RU claims, require verification.
      • RU VDV infiltration claim via 16km pipe near Sudzha widely disseminated (Arkhangel Spetsnaza 09:01 UTC, Rybar 09:52 UTC). Propaganda claim, requires verification.
      • RU MoD video claims successful defense of state border by "Sever" Group (MoD Russia 09:39 UTC).
    • Belgorod: Fighting reported near Demydovka; RU source claims UA infantry groups present in SE part, RU forces control rest. Street fighting ongoing. RU claims clearing operations E of Demydovka. Claims Popovka clear of UA forces after failed attempts yesterday (Dva Mayora 09:33 UTC). UA SSO "REQUIEM GROUP" claims drone strikes on multiple targets (see Section I).
    • Sumy Border Area: RU sources claim expansion of control zone (Colonelcassad, 09:19 UTC). Verification required.
    • UA Counter-Disinformation: Ukrainian sources deny RU claims of destroying young contract soldiers (allegedly 92nd Brigade) in Kursk, state personnel still in training, brigade not deployed there (Operativno ZSU, 09:14 UTC).
  • Eastern & Southern Frontlines (Mar 26 Data unless specified):
    • Kharkiv: RU assaults near Vovchansk stopped.
    • Kupyansk: RU assaults near Holubivka, Zahryzove repelled/ongoing.
    • Lyman: 14 RU attacks repelled. RU sources claim forces entered Katerynivka, fighting ongoing (Sources: RVvoenkor 08:32 UTC, Colonelcassad 09:19 UTC). RU claim, requires verification.
    • Siversk: 11 RU attacks stopped. UA PoW capture reported.
    • Kramatorsk (Chasiv Yar): 4 RU attacks repelled; RU storming actions continue.
    • Toretsk: 20 RU attacks; urban fighting ongoing. RU claims advances near Krymske, Rozivka, Panteleimonivka. RU sources claim clearing operations in Panteleimonivka and Aleksandropol (Rozivka) area (Sources: Dnevnik Desantnika 08:39 UTC, Colonelcassad 09:19 UTC). UA Azov brigade reports use of fiber-optic FPV drones against RU positions/vehicles (Butusov Plus 09:35 UTC). RU claims require verification.
    • Pokrovsk: Highest intensity (88 clashes). RU attacks repelled near multiple settlements. UA SSO captured 9 RU soldiers. RU sources detail repelled UA counterattacks, heavy RU drone/TOS use.
    • Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk / Vremivka: 25 RU attacks. RU claims break into Vesele, advances near Konstantynopil, Novosilka, Vilne Pole, Razliv, Dniproenerhiia, Komar. Intense fighting reported. RU sources claim advances towards Vesele and west of Burlatske (Colonelcassad, 09:19 UTC). RU claims, require verification.
    • Huliaipole: 16 RU attacks stopped.
    • Zaporizhzhia (Orikhiv): 9 RU assaults repelled. RU claims advances in Stepove, Lobkove. Verification required.
    • Kherson (Prydniprovsky): 2 RU attacks stopped. Positional fighting.

III. Other Significant Military Developments

  • Potential RU Spring Offensive: President Zelenskyy stated Russia is preparing for a new offensive in Spring, targeting Sumy and Kharkiv. Indicated these maneuvers were planned 8 months ago but potentially disrupted by UA operations in Kursk. (Sources: Tsaplienko 09:50 UTC, Operativno ZSU 09:52 UTC). HIGH STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE.
  • Confirmed RU Loss: UA destroyed a Russian Zoopark counter-battery radar (Mar 26).
  • Claimed RU Officer Losses (UA Claim): Claimed elimination of Capt/Maj. Aivar Gashimov, Maj. Sergey Savelyev, Maj. Ivan Gordeev, Sr. Lt. Alim Urumov. (Source: Shtirlitz, 09:25 UTC). Verification required.
  • Russian Tactics & Equipment: Continued heavy use of KABs, FPV/kamikaze drones. Use of UGVs, fiber-optic FPV drones (Kursk, Pokrovsk, Toretsk), Orlan-30 reported. Ongoing field modification/up-armoring (KAMAZ pontoon layer). RU fundraising continues for drones, NVGs, radios, vehicles (UAZ pickup for 112th Regt assault coy). (Sources: Dva Mayora 09:04 UTC, Kotsnews 09:08 UTC, Voenkor Kotenok 09:13 UTC).
  • Ukrainian Tactics & Equipment: Reported use of fiber-optic controlled FPV drones resistant to EW (Azov Brigade, Toretsk direction) (Source: Butusov Plus 09:35 UTC). FPV drone training reported in Kyiv schools (Tsaplienko 09:13 UTC).
  • Ukrainian Brigade Structures (RU Analysis): RU source provides detailed analysis of purported UA brigade structures (specifically 3rd Assault Brigade), highlighting large size (6-9 battalions, akin to division), mix of assault/mechanized/rifle battalions, strong artillery groups, significant UAV components (battalion/regiment level, plus units within battalions), engineering battalions, and logistical support. Notes lack of dedicated UAV subunits in 'rifle' (territorial defense/mobilized) battalions, suggesting they are used defensively. Notes prevalence of foreign/mixed equipment. Suggests UA advantages in UAVs, engineering, decentralized command, but challenges in manpower and vehicle transport. Proposes RU countermeasures including enhanced UAV capabilities (transport, fighter), artillery ammo, logistics, engineering, and creating battalion-level recon units. (Source: Filolog v zasade 09:52 - 09:53 UTC). RU analysis, provides potential insights but requires verification and critical assessment.
  • North Korean Support (Claim): Alleged deployment of ~3000 additional NK soldiers, increased weapon shipments. Verification required.
  • Russian Internal Security/Mobilization: Reports of security forces raiding migrant worker locations in St. Petersburg to find individuals with RU citizenship who haven't registered for military service; 25 taken to military commissariat. (Source: Mobilizatsia Novosti 09:43 UTC). Vladimir Oblast authorities ban filming/sharing info on drone attacks, military positions, industrial/infra objects (Source: ASTRA 09:52 UTC).
  • Ukrainian Recruitment & Training: Expanded list of brigades for "Contract 18-24". Reports of civilian resistance/legal challenges to mobilization (Source: Shtirlitz, 09:11 UTC). Profile of UA Sgt. "Partizan" (228 Bn, 127 Bde) highlighting combat experience and training role (Source: OTU Kharkiv 09:43 UTC).
  • Ukrainian Logistics & Support: Zaporizhzhia Oblast received 2 Mercedes-Benz Zetros trucks from Germany's THW for water utility (Source: Zaporizhzhia OVA, 09:06 UTC).

IV. Diplomatic, Political, and Humanitarian

  • Paris Summit ("Coalition of the Willing"):
    • President Zelenskyy arrived, met with President Macron (Source: RBC-Ukraine 09:16 UTC, Operativno ZSU 09:24 UTC).
    • Pre-summit meeting held between Zelenskyy, Macron, and UK PM Keir Starmer. Summit involves leaders/delegations from ~31 countries. Agenda includes military support and potential deployment of military contingents post-conflict. (Sources: RBC-Ukraine 09:32 UTC, Tsaplienko 09:53 UTC, STERNENKO 09:37 UTC).
    • Divergence reported among member states on willingness to deploy troops post-conflict (Source: NYT via TASS 09:18 UTC).
  • NATO Membership: NATO SecGen Rutte: NATO hasn't declared Ukraine will be a member, but doesn't exclude possibility. Clarified earlier reports potentially misinterpreting statements on US soldiers missing in Lithuania (Sources: Tsaplienko 09:08 UTC, RVvoenkor 09:14 UTC).
  • Negotiations/Peace Process:
    • France believes China can play role in persuading Russia to negotiate seriously (Source: RBC-Ukraine 09:09 UTC).
    • Turkey ready to assist with Black Sea grain corridor, but no decisions reached (Source: TASS 09:06 UTC).
    • RU MFA (Ryabkov): Black Sea Initiative discussed with US "in most general terms," no concrete agreements, work ongoing (Source: TASS 09:37 UTC, RVvoenkor 09:54 UTC).
    • UK PM Starmer criticizes Putin as not serious about peace talks, citing Black Sea ceasefire issues and continued attacks (Source: RBC-Ukraine 09:55 UTC).
  • US-Ukraine Relations:
    • Details/criticism of purported US-Ukraine minerals agreement continue circulating (via UA MP Zhelznyak), claiming US control over resources, lack of security guarantees, indefinite term. (Sources: Tsaplienko 09:19 UTC, Operativno ZSU 09:34 UTC, TASS 09:12, 09:16, 09:20 UTC, RVvoenkor 09:35 UTC, Dva Mayora 09:37 UTC, Colonelcassad 09:48 UTC). Requires verification and context, potentially RU/internal UA political narrative.
  • Russia-DPRK Relations: Discussions on Kim Jong Un's visit to Russia ongoing (Source: TASS 09:27 UTC).
  • Humanitarian: Russia handed over 5 Ukrainian children via Qatari mediation (Sources: TASS 09:29 UTC, ASTRA 09:37 UTC).
  • Russian Internal:
    • Ombudsman proposes enhanced social support for SVO participants/families (Source: Dnevnik Desantnika, 09:08 UTC).
    • FSB alleges UA recruitment efforts via RAND Corp cover (Source: TASS 08:34 UTC).
    • Conference launched for "Club of People's Unity" involving pro-RU figures (Azarov, Glazyev) discussing post-conflict Russia/Ukraine media models (Source: Basurin 09:40 UTC).
    • Russia expects sanctions removal from Rosselkhozbank and SWIFT reconnection (Sources: TASS 09:39 UTC, Tsaplienko 09:47 UTC, RVvoenkor 09:54 UTC).
  • Ukrainian Internal:
    • SBU denies staff involvement in facilitating illegal border crossing, confirms investigation with NABU regarding specific case (Source: Tsaplienko, 09:23 UTC).
    • InformNapalm community alleges illegal search and pressure by State Bureau of Investigation (DBR) against spokesperson Mykhailo Makaruk, claiming seizure of equipment without court order or charges (Source: Operativno ZSU 10:00 UTC).
    • Mental health program "Ти як?" meeting held in Kyiv with First Lady, focusing on implementation challenges in communities, particularly relevant for frontline Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Source: Zaporizhzhia OVA 10:00 UTC).
Previous (2025-03-27 09:32:04Z)

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