Military Situation Update: March 27, 2025, 04:01 UTC
I. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
UAV Threat Status (Update 04:01 UTC):
The threat of enemy attack UAVs ended across all Ukrainian oblasts as of 02:04 UTC (Ukrainian Air Force, RBC-Ukraine).
However, Russian sources claim ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks targeting energy infrastructure (Glebovskoye gas storage, Bryansk power lines) despite the alleged March 18 moratorium (Rybar, 03:31 UTC). Verification required.
Massive Shahed UAV Attack Aftermath (Night of Mar 26-27):
Kharkiv City: Multiple "Geran-2" (Shahed) impacts reported previously in Slobidsky and Kyiv districts, hitting industrial and residential infrastructure (Mar 26, 20:40-21:20 UTC). Casualty figures require reconciliation between sources.
Dnipro: Confirmed impacts in residential areas, fires reported previously.
Kryvyi Rih & Cherkasy: Russian sources claim successful "Geran-2" strikes on an enterprise in Kryvyi Rih and an airfield in Cherkasy (Rybar, 03:31 UTC). Requires verification.
Tactical Aviation: Active in the southeast and northeast, posing a threat of airstrikes, particularly guided bombs (KABs) in frontline regions like Donetsk and Kharkiv (Previous reports).
Yunakivka-Sudzha supply route remains under intense Russian fire pressure.
Belgorod Oblast Border (Cross-border operations):
Continued fighting reported near Demydovka and Popovka (Krasnoyaruzhsky district), with Ukrainian infantry groups active (Dva Mayora, 03:38 UTC).
Russian sources claim two attempted Ukrainian breakthroughs in Krasnoyaruzhsky district, alleging use and destruction of an Abrams-based engineering vehicle (Dva Mayora, 03:38 UTC). Requires verification.
Russian source indicates Ukrainian forces possess reserves for potential new cross-border pushes but haven't penetrated deeply (Dva Mayora, 03:38 UTC).
Civilian casualty reported in Tishanka (Volokonovsky district) from drone drop; Journalist Anna Prokofieva (Perviy Kanal) reported killed in Belgorod region (Dva Mayora, 03:38 UTC).
Urban fighting ongoing. Russian sources claim control over the "Toretskaya" mine area and northwestern outskirts (Rybar, 03:31 UTC). Video previously claimed destruction of Ukrainian infantry (Colonelcassad).
Russian forces reportedly extending pressure south towards Aleksandropol and Panteleimonovka (Dva Mayora, 03:38 UTC).
Pokrovsk Direction:
Remains a high-intensity area. Fighting reported near Novoooleksandrivka (south of the main push) (Dva Mayora, 03:38 UTC).
Previous report: Ukrainian SSO claimed capture of 9 Russian soldiers.
Vremivka / Velyka Novosilka / Andriivskyi Sector:
Russian forces claim advance of 400m towards the center of Volne Pole from Pryvilne (Rybar, 03:31 UTC; Dva Mayora, 03:38 UTC).
Russian forces claim advances south of Konstantinopol towards Razliv, capturing positions (1.5 km total advance claimed) (Dva Mayora, 03:38 UTC).
Near Novosilka, Russian forces claim disrupting Ukrainian defenses, advancing 500m, and capturing positions (Dva Mayora, 03:38 UTC).
Ukrainian counterattacks by small infantry groups reported in response (Dva Mayora, 03:38 UTC).
Zaporizhzhia Direction (Orikhiv Sector):
Russian forces attacking towards Shcherbaky from captured Malye Shcherbaky (Dva Mayora, 03:38 UTC).
Fighting detailed near Lobkove (Rybar, 03:31 UTC).
Previous Russian claims included advances near Stepove, Piatykhatky, Robotyne, Mala Tokmachka.
Kherson Direction:
Civilian injured in Aleshky by drone strike (Dva Mayora, 03:38 UTC).
Multiple settlements on the Russian-controlled left bank reportedly under Ukrainian fire (Kakhovka, Nova Kakhovka, Hornostaivka, Dnipryany, Kozachi Laheri, Kairy, Kardashynka, Obryvky, Podstepne) (Dva Mayora, 03:38 UTC).
Previous Reported Changes (DeepState Map, Mar 26): Included Russian advances near Katerynivka (Luhansk), Terny (Donetsk), Dniproenerhiya area (Enerhodar?), Pischane (Kharkiv), and Ukrainian repulse near Kotlyne (Kharkiv).
III. Russian Military Activities & Logistics
Drone/EW Focus: Continued heavy reliance on FPV drones; use against rotations confirmed (Serebryanske Forestry).
Alleged Sanctions Evasion: Previous reports suggest procurement of explosive precursors via fertilizer companies (Operatyvnyi ZSU / BBG).
Training/Equipment: Ongoing training activities previously noted. Use of improvised equipment also reported.
IV. Ukrainian Activities / Claims
Strike Confirmation (Recap): Successful strike on Russian Command Post near Viktorivka-Uspenivka (Kursk Oblast, RU) confirmed previously.
Drone Successes (Claims Recap - Mar 26): Significant claims by various units (3rd Assault, SSO "Faust", 40th Coastal Def, 113th TD) targeting Russian equipment across multiple fronts.
Mobilization Allegations: Russian sources continue to push narratives alleging problematic Ukrainian mobilization tactics (e.g., targeting couriers in Odesa). Potential disinformation.
V. International / Diplomatic / Logistics
Ukrainian Stance on European Troops (Unverified): Russian sources circulate claims that Ukraine seeks substantial numbers of "combat-ready" European troops, not peacekeepers far from the front. Requires verification of source and context.
US Airlift: Previous report noted potential resumption of direct US military airlift via C-17 to Rzeszow (Mar 26).
US-Russia Relations: New Russian ambassador seeks diplomatic normalization. US White House/State Dept reportedly unresponsive to TASS query on journalist deaths attributed to Ukraine (TASS, 03:05 UTC).
Black Sea/Energy Infrastructure Agreement (Context): Previous reports (Mar 25) indicated a US-mediated agreement on safe navigation and avoiding energy strikes. Russian sources now claim Ukraine continues energy strikes despite this (Rybar, 03:31 UTC). Russian compliance remains conditional on sanctions relief (Previous Kremlin statements).
Donbas/General: Promoting narratives of liberation, framing Russia as a haven ("Noah's Ark") from Western values (via German ex-politician story), highlighting alleged Ukrainian military use of civilian infrastructure, cultural friction narratives. Disseminating footage of Ukrainian losses.
Mobilization: Continuing efforts to discredit Ukrainian mobilization.
Ukrainian Narrative: Previously asserted right to "symmetrical responses" against Russian infrastructure if attacks persist (Podolyak).
VII. New Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region: 1.0
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid: 1.0
Russia is making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha: 1.0
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction: 0.969
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts: 0.969
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply: 1.0
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration: 0.93
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Russian forces are making significant advances in the Kursk region.: 0.85
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.84
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.84
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.82
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Ukraine is striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Negotiations for a complete ceasefire are underway.: 0.7036
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed: 0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.7
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
Ukraine is prioritizing domestic weapons production, including rockets, drones, and long-range weapons, despite the continued value of foreign weapons.: 0.7
Kremlin spokesman Peskov denies reports of US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia this week.: 0.7
Damage to the roof of a building at the "Konservsushzavod" plant in Starodub, Bryansk region, Russia, after a UAV attack was confirmed.: 0.7
Russian Journalist Anna Prokofieva killed in Belgorod: 0.8
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
The 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Fighting ongoing near Novoooleksandrivka (Pokrovsk direction): 0.7
Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Fighting ongoing near Demydovka/Popovka (Belgorod): 0.7
Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are encircled in the Kursk region.: 0.7
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
The Zaporizhzhia attack resulted in 367 strikes on 13 settlements, using various weapons, including aviation strikes, UAVs, MLRS, and artillery.: 0.688
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
Partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.65
There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.64
There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.63
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Quad bikes are requested for soldiers.: 0.6
Online weapons permits are now available in the Diia app.: 0.6
An image of "I love combat training" has been posted.: 0.6
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Two boats were supposedly destroyed.: 0.6
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
Russia controls Toretskaya mine area in Dzerzhinsk: 0.6
Russia advanced towards Volne Pole: 0.6
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
Russian forces have successfully destroyed Ukrainian positions and equipment in the Kursk region.: 0.6
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
Russia advancing north of Guevo (Kursk): 0.6
Russia advancing west of Melovoy (Kursk): 0.6
Russia advancing towards Razliv: 0.6
Russia advancing near Novosilka (V. Novosilka area): 0.6
Russia advancing from Pryvilne to Volne Pole: 0.6
UA attempted breakthrough in Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Belgorod): 0.6
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.52
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukraine received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
Potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant casualties in the Kursk region.: 0.5
Mothers of deceased soldiers in Udmurtia are being sent to a monastery for rehabilitation.: 0.5
Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
A drone will be sent to soldiers.: 0.4
UA used Abrams-based IMR in Belgorod: 0.4 (RU claim, requires caution)
Ukraine continues energy strikes despite moratorium: 0.4 (RU claim)
The US is actively involved in mediating the ceasefire negotiations.: 0.4
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
The proposed ceasefire agreement will likely favor Russian territorial claims.: 0.3
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
