Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 14:28 UTC
I. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Ballistic Missile Threat:
Threat declared from the North (13:46 UTC). Target reported heading towards Sumy Oblast (13:46 UTC).
Threat declared from the South (13:56 UTC).
All clear announced for ballistic missile threat (14:11 UTC).
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs):
Activity reported towards Sumy (14:01 UTC).
Russian Drone Development: Russian engineers claim development of "Sifa" FPV drone designed for anti-UAV (incl. "Baba Yaga") and anti-helicopter roles, featuring autonomous targeting and EW resistance (RU Source: Basurin). Speed claimed: 225 km/h, flight time 5 min, payload 0.7 kg.
Ukrainian Drone Strike Claims (SBU): SBU claims destruction of 1700+ tanks, 3000+ AFVs, 250 AD systems, 550 EW systems using FPV drones since Feb 2022. Claimed operational depth up to 120km+.
Pokrovsk Direction: Video evidence shows 110th Mechanized Brigade drone battalion engaging and stopping a Russian armored column of six units (UA Source: Butusov Plus).
Ukrainian Air Defence:
Mobile fire groups of the Kherson Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade (Air Command South) reportedly destroyed 5 Shahed-type UAVs overnight March 26 (UA Source: Shtirlits).
II. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy/Kharkiv)
Kursk/Sumy Border (RU MoD Claims - Mar 26):
RU MoD repeats claims of offensive actions and neutralizing AFU formations (mechanized, air assault, marine, presidential, territorial defense) in Kursk Oblast near Gogolevka, Gornal, Guyevo, Oleshnya.
Aviation/Artillery strikes claimed on AFU positions in numerous settlements across the Sumy border region (including Basovka, Belovody, Loknya, Miropolye, Yunakovka).
Claimed >230 AFU casualties, destruction of tank, APC, AFV, 6 vehicles, EW station, UAV CP, ammo depot in past 24h.
RU sources claim destruction of a Canadian "Senator" armored vehicle and >10 Ukrainian soldiers west of Goncharovka, Kursk Oblast (RU Source: TASS).
Belgorod Border (RU Claims):
Renewed Ukrainian attempt to breach near Popovka (Krasnoyaruzhsky district) allegedly occurred in the morning (Mar 26), using an engineering vehicle for mine clearing. Claimed destruction of the vehicle and damage to an armored vehicle by Akhmat forces (Apty Alaudinov via ASTRA).
Heavy fighting ongoing in Demidovka (RU claim UA holding village but suffering heavy losses, RU making gains). Village contested for 8 days (RU Source: Kotenok via ASTRA).
Alleged Ukrainian attempt to breach in Grayvoronsky district claimed repelled after 24h fight (RU source: Sladkov via ASTRA). Fire reported in Kozinka (Grayvoronsky district) previously.
RU sources report ongoing fighting and UA probing attacks despite dense fog in Belgorod Oblast (RU Source: Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
Captured Items (RU Claim): Russian sources claim capture of Ukrainian personnel documents, maps, foreign vehicle license plates (LT, PL), and Canadian & Ukrainian flags from UA positions, potentially in the border area (RU Source: Dnevnik Desantnika).
III. Frontline Activity
South Donetsk Direction (RU Claims - Voin DV):
Continued Russian advances claimed in Shakhtarsk and Vremivka sectors.
Shakhtarsk: Claimed 1.5 km advance near Razliv, capturing a forest belt, height, and 2 strongpoints. UA assaults near Razliv and Vesele claimed repelled (>17 UA casualties). Claimed >25 UA casualties total in direction.
Vremivka: Claimed 500m advance near Novosilka, capturing two forest belts and a height. UA assault near Volne Pole claimed repelled.
Artillery/strikes claimed on UA positions/rotations near Bohatyr, Oleksiivka, Fedorivka, Chervone, Vesele. Claimed destruction of 2 2S1 SPGs and a mortar.
RU sources claim drone strikes (VT-40, KVN, Upyr) by 40th Naval Infantry Brigade destroyed UA communication nodes, mobile UAV CPs, personnel, and armor (RU Source: Voin DV).
Konstantinovka/Toretsk Direction:
RU sources claim full capture and clearing of Panteleimonivka (SW of Toretsk) by 68th Tank Regiment after several days of fighting (RU Source: RVvoenkor).
RU sources claim entry into and capture of a significant part of Aleksandropol (Rozivka) by 68th Tank Regiment; ongoing clearing operations against remaining UA positions. Ukrainian sources reportedly acknowledged RU presence on northern outskirts (RU Source: RVvoenkor).
Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled a Russian attempt to gain a foothold on the outskirts of Toretsk. OSUI Khortytsia reported reconnaissance identified a small RU infantry group, which was engaged with heavy fire and drone munition drops (UA Source: RBC-Ukraina).
Pokrovsk Direction:
Russian POW captured (Roman Kuznetsov, 4th Mot. Rifle Bde) reportedly states joining for money, mentions heavy losses and poor reconnaissance (UA Source: Butusov Plus).
Video evidence shows UA 110th Mechanized Brigade drone battalion engaging and stopping a Russian armored column of six units (UA Source: Butusov Plus).
IV. Diplomatic, Political, and Economic
Negotiations & Sanctions:
EU reiterates stance (via Reuters, FT) that full Russian withdrawal is a key condition for sanctions removal, rejecting Russian demand for ceasefire in exchange for sanctions relief (Operativnyi ZSU, Tsaplienko, Sternenko).
Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Podolyak states the US avoided including a clause on responsibility for ceasefire violations in talks with Russia, perceiving US caution; notes US awareness of RU stalling tactics and suggests coercion ("stick") will be needed (UA Source: RBC-Ukraina).
Unverified Russian source claims Kremlin links any concessions (truce, prisoner exchange) directly to sanctions relief, potentially disrupting talks (RU Source: General SVR).
NATO Coordination: NATO reportedly taking control of arms supply coordination via NSATU structure (RU source: Poddubny, citing Polish MoD).
Finland Troop Deployment: Finnish President Stubb clarifies no current plan for Finnish troops in Ukraine for ceasefire monitoring, but keeps option open for future internationally mandated peace operations (RBC-Ukraine).
US-Russia ZNPP Control: Russia denies considering joint US-Russia control over Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (Novak via TASS).
Russian Energy Infrastructure:
Russia assessing damage to Sudzha Gas Metering Station (GIS); restoration time depends on future energy agreements with Europe, expected to be lengthy (Novak via TASS).
Restoration of Kropotkinskaya Oil Pumping Station (NPS) ongoing, timeline unclear (Novak via TASS).
Nord Stream 2's surviving pipeline is technically operational, but many questions remain about its potential use (Novak via TASS).
Ukrainian Energy Needs & Russian Strikes Impact:
Ukraine anticipates record gas imports from Europe (up to 5bn cubic meters by Apr 2026) due to depleted reserves, partly attributed to Russian strikes on production facilities (Bloomberg via Rybar). Rybar notes this increases costs for EU supporters.
Analysis by RFE/RL & Frontelligence estimates Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure caused at least 60 billion RUB ($658 million) in damage over the last six months (Sever.Realii).
Moldova/Gagauzia: Head of Gagauzia (pro-Russian politician Eugenia Gutul) detained in Chisinau (Mar 25), drawing condemnation from Russia and Moldovan opposition. Situation reflects internal Moldovan political tensions regarding EU integration vs. pro-Russian sentiment (WarGonzo).
Russian Internal:
Founder of major agricultural holding "Rusagro" Vadim Moshkovich detained, searches in offices; accused of large-scale fraud (Colonelcassad, TASS). Company states searches unrelated to current activity.
LDPR leader Slutsky calls for more state support (financial, psychological) for families of soldiers involved in the "SVO" (Starshe Eddy).
V. Information Domain & Other
Energy Strike Moratorium Claims:
Ukrainian General Staff denies Russian MoD claims of Ukraine violating the energy strike moratorium on Mar 25-26 with UAV strikes in Kursk, Bryansk, or Crimea (GenStaff, RBC-Ukraine, Operativnyi ZSU, Tsaplienko).
Russian Deputy PM Novak claims Ukraine continues attacks on Russian energy facilities despite alleged agreement (RU Source: TASS).
War Crimes & Legal Actions:
Ukraine issues notice of suspicion to RU soldier for alleged killing of two civilians in Katyuzhanka (Kyiv Oblast) in Feb 2022 (Prosecutor General's Office).
Kirovohrad resident sentenced to 15 years for treason; convicted of providing coordinates of military objects, territorial defense units, and air defense locations to Russian military intelligence (May-July 2023) in exchange for payment and promised FSB employment (UA Source: Prosecutor General's Office).
Moscow court upholds заочный (in absentia) arrest warrant for Lithuanian mercenary Skripkyunas, who spoke to media about alleged killings of Russian soldiers (RU Source: TASS).
SBU issues charges in absentia against Russian TV host Vladimir Solovyov under five articles, including violation of territorial integrity and calls for overthrowing constitutional order, for supporting the "SVO" (RU Source: Colonelcassad).
Casualties/POWs:
Russian court sentences 23 alleged Azov members to 13-23 years (Colonelcassad).
RU recruitment drive for BARS-22 "Tigr" unit (155th Naval Infantry) highlights financial incentives (WarGonzo).
Reported death of Russian Paralympic athlete Alexander Rabotnitsky (diagnosed intellectual disability) after signing military contract, potentially due to financial hardship/debts (Mobilizatsiya).
Coordination HQ for POWs met with families of the 46th Airmobile Brigade, discussing legal status determination for MIA, complexities of exchange negotiations (priority categories, "all-for-all" definitions), repatriation and identification of fallen soldiers, and movement of POWs between detention facilities (UA Source: Coordination HQ).
Internal Security/Mobilization:
Four individuals, including a doctor, detained in Ukraine for allegedly organizing scheme selling fraudulent medical exemptions ("white tickets") for $20,000-25,000 to evade mobilization and allow border crossing (UA Source: Tsaplienko).
Humanitarian:
Fundraising appeal for humanitarian aid (children's items, medicine, food, etc.) for orphans, disabled children, large families, and civilians evacuated from conflict zones like Artemivsk (Bakhmut) to Donbas/SVO areas (RU Source: Colonelcassad).
Russian Propaganda Narratives:
RU MoD/sources continue emphasizing high claimed UA losses in Kursk direction.
Highlighting alleged mistreatment/negligence in UA forces leading to soldier death (Colonelcassad).
Russian SVR alleges EU planning centralized anti-Russian propaganda campaign to justify defense spending (Poddubny).
TASS pushing narratives about alleged UA atrocities in Sudzha (orphanage strike).
International Perspective:
Sky News analyst quoted stating Russia has violated over 190 international agreements (UA Source: Operativnyi ZSU, Tsaplienko).
