Military Situation Update: March 25, 2025, 22:58 UTC
I. Diplomatic and Political Context
Energy Infrastructure Moratorium: The 30-day agreement (effective Mar 18) remains formally active. Russian MoD accuses Ukraine of violating its spirit with UAV strikes (potentially referencing Belgorod). Ukrainian officials view continued Russian Shahed attacks (including Kryvyi Rih) as violating the spirit of potential peace initiatives.
US-Russia Dialogue & Ceasefire Talks: Contradictory reports persist regarding US-Russia talks (potentially in Saudi Arabia) concerning a Black Sea ceasefire linked to sanctions relief. Former President Trump indicated progress and expressed confidence that monitoring mechanisms, involving other countries, can be agreed upon. Kremlin initially denied talks, but a later MoD statement implicitly confirmed talks on March 24.
Ukrainian Position: President Zelenskyy rejects linking Black Sea safety to sanctions relief, accuses Russia of manipulation, reiterates distrust, and highlights US support. He stated Russia's actions were critical. In a Time interview, Zelenskyy emphasized Russia sets maximalist negotiation goals, views the US as "somewhere in the middle," potentially favouring Russia, and stated Ukraine would seek more sanctions if Russia rejects a full ceasefire. He expressed confidence Western partners would not betray Ukraine, citing leaders' historical ambitions and desire to succeed. He acknowledged post-war challenges (demographics, reconstruction, veterans' needs) but anticipated a morale boost from rebuilding.
Russian Position: President Putin acknowledged troop rotation challenges. Russian MFA declared ZNPP a "Russian nuclear object," deeming control transfer "impossible." MoD claimed liberation of Mirnoye (Donetsk) and Malye Shcherbaki (Zaporizhzhia), and routing Ukrainian forces near Kursk border. Trump envoy Grenell asserted former Soviet nuclear weapons in Ukraine belonged to Moscow. MFA Lavrov criticized US President Biden, European politicians (calling Nord Stream opponents "sick people or suicides"), stated Zelenskyy understands his "days are numbered" and that European elites will hinder any truce, emphasized de-dollarization, and reiterated the "trust but verify" principle for dialogue with the US. General Shamarin (Head of Communications Directorate, accused of bribery) reportedly wants to join the Special Military Operation.
US Assessment (CIA Director Ratcliffe): Acknowledged Russian battlefield advantage but emphasized strong Ukrainian will to resist unacceptable terms. Noted President Trump's view that successful talks imply neither side achieves maximalist goals.
Germany: President Steinmeier dismissed Chancellor Scholz's government following the new Bundestag convocation. The Scholz cabinet remains in a caretaker capacity until a new government, likely led by Friedrich Merz (CDU), is formed (expected by April 20).
Moldova/Gagauzia: Head of Gagauzia, Evgenia Gutsul, reportedly detained at Chisinau airport; Moldovan bloc "Pobeda" alleges lack of grounds.
II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Intense Widespread Russian UAV Attacks (Shahed-type): High intensity continues across multiple Oblasts.
Overall Status (approx. 22:51 UTC):
1 UAV on Chernihiv/Kyiv Oblast border.
Multiple groups moving from Chernihiv & Sumy Oblasts to Poltava Oblast.
1 group in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (W course).
Multiple groups in Kherson Oblast moving towards Mykolaiv & Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
1 UAV moving from Poltava to Cherkasy Oblast.
Previous (22:21 UTC): UAVs also reported near Elanets (Mykolaiv), over/near Zaporizhzhia city, near Smila (Cherkasy), moving from Kharkiv->Poltava, near Nezhyn (Chernihiv), near Konotop (Sumy), and over Belgorod (Russia).
Ongoing/Recent Activity & Impacts:
Kryvyi Rih: Subjected to massive, multi-wave attacks earlier. Ukrainian officials (Vilkul) reported significant destruction but confirmed no fatalities ("a miracle"). New threat emerged (22:40 UTC): UAV approached from East, initially towards the city, but reportedly diverted towards Nikopol (22:44 UTC). Russian sources (Colonelcassad, 22:57 UTC) posted visuals of multiple explosions/fires, claiming numerous 'Geran' hits and asserting weak Ukrainian air defence activity.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: UAV movement reported throughout the evening. Threat was ongoing over/near the city (21:47, 22:15, 22:21 UTC). Anti-drone activity confirmed.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Groups active earlier near Pavlohrad, later moving towards Kharkiv Oblast and West. New group reported moving West (22:51 UTC). UAV diverted from Kryvyi Rih towards Nikopol (22:44 UTC).
Mykolaiv Oblast: UAV movement from Kherson Oblast reported earlier. UAV reported near Kazanka, later near Elanets moving west. New groups moving from Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast (22:51 UTC). Russian source (Kotenok) claimed explosions in Mykolaiv city earlier.
Sumy Oblast: Groups reported moving south earlier, near Konotop. New groups moving towards Poltava Oblast (22:51 UTC). Russian source (Kotenok) claimed explosions earlier.
Chernihiv Oblast: Multiple groups reported moving south earlier, towards Poltava Oblast, near Nezhyn. UAV reported on border with Kyiv Oblast (22:51 UTC). New groups moving towards Poltava Oblast (22:51 UTC).
Cherkasy Oblast: UAV reported near Smila earlier, moving west; still reported near Smila later (22:21 UTC). UAV moving from Poltava Oblast towards Cherkasy (22:51 UTC).
Kyiv Oblast: UAV reported on border with Chernihiv Oblast (22:51 UTC).
Kirovohrad Oblast: UAV reported on border with Cherkasy Oblast earlier. UAV previously near Kryvyi Rih flew past towards Kirovohrad Oblast (22:11 UTC).
Kharkiv Oblast: Multiple groups active earlier. UAV reported moving from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast earlier.
Poltava Oblast: Group moving SW earlier. UAVs moving from Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts reported. UAV moving from Poltava towards Cherkasy (22:51 UTC).
Kherson Oblast: New groups reported moving towards Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts (22:51 UTC).
Black Sea: Activity reported earlier towards Odesa/Mykolaiv.
UGS Summary (as of 22:00 Local): Reported 764 Russian kamikaze drone attacks for the day.
Ukrainian UAV Activity (Inside Russia):
Belgorod (City): Explosions reported (22:32 UTC). Russian media/local sources claim air defence activity, alleging one UAV downed. Corroborates earlier reports of UAVs circulating over Belgorod Oblast.
Russian Tactical Aviation / Guided Bombs (KABs): Activity reported earlier (SE, NE). UGS reported 84 Russian air strikes using 129 KABs across various fronts.
Missile Threats: Missile danger alert issued earlier for Chernihiv Oblast.
Air Defence Activity: Confirmed active over Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia Oblast earlier. Russian sources claim weak AD performance over Kryvyi Rih during recent strikes. Repair of thermal imager for a Stinger MANPADS team reported by Ukrainian volunteers.
Accidental Russian Munition Drops: ASTRA reports ongoing incidents (35 since start of 2025) of Russian aircraft accidentally dropping ordnance on Russian/occupied territory.
III. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)
Popovka (Belgorod Oblast): Ongoing fighting reported earlier (22:00 UTC). Russian source detailed border clash involving RU border guards (FSB reserve) and alleged UA Special Forces. RU forces reportedly held position despite heavy casualties, tank fire, and drone drops. Position reinforced by RU MoD units. Artillery fire reported on Popovka where UA forces are present.
Demydovka (Belgorod Oblast): Heavy fighting ongoing earlier. Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces hold some houses but not the village, RU artillery firing on it. Situation described as unchanged since yesterday by one source, implying RU difficulties. UA source previously claimed successful raid into Demydovka. Context: Fighting confirmed here since at least Mar 23.
Cherkasskoye Porechnoye (Kursk Oblast): Russian report (Colonelcassad, 21:35 UTC) confirms RU control, claimed recaptured approx. two weeks ago. Report details heavy destruction, extensive mining/UXO presence. Corroborates earlier RU MoD claims. Context: RU MoD previously claimed liberation on Mar 23.
Krasnoyaruzhsky Direction (Belgorod Oblast): Russian source provides alleged Ukrainian Order of Battle, claiming involvement of multiple brigades and heavy losses inflicted by RU Group "North".
Russian Claim (Soldier Capture): Russian source claims capture of Ukrainian soldier (Volodymyr Koval, 129th TerO Bde) near Guyevo (Sudzha area, Kursk Oblast) by elements of RU 22nd MRR.
Ukrainian Claims (Kursk Direction): UGS reports ongoing operations, repelling 28 Russian assaults (3 ongoing) as of 22:00 Local. Reports significant RU air (15 strikes/19 KABs) and artillery (208 shellings) attacks on UA positions.
Russian Claims (Kursk Direction): MoD Russia claims routing Ukrainian forces, inflicting >260 casualties in 24 hours.
IV. Frontline Activity (Based on UGS Report 22:00 Local & Other Sources)
Overall: 183 combat clashes reported by UGS since start of day. High levels of Russian air, drone, and artillery strikes continue.
Kupiansk Direction: 5 Russian assaults repelled (Zahryzove, Petropavlivka). Russian sources claim regaining control of Dvurechna and advances near Kamenka/Mala Shapkovka. Video purports to show Lancet destroying UA 2S1 Gvozdika. Video purports to show RU KIA near Kupiansk. Context: Positional fighting and RU claims of expanding control in Dvorichna reported Mar 23.
Lyman Direction: 24 Russian attacks (multiple locations incl. Yampolivka, Nadiia, Kopanky); 6 ongoing. Context: UA sources claimed recapture of Nadiya on Mar 23, requires confirmation.
Huliaipole Direction: 1 Russian attack near Pryvilne repelled. Airstrikes reported.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): 9 Russian attempts (near Kaminske, towards Lobkove, Stepove); 6 ongoing. Airstrikes on Mala Tokmachka. Russian MoD claims liberation of Malye Shcherbaki. Russian sources claim advances north of Zherebianky, within Lobkove, and holding most of Stepove despite UA counterattacks. Video evidence (Operativnyi ZSU, 22:24 UTC) shows Ukrainian 128th Mountain Assault Brigade drone operators targeting Russian assault troops in this direction.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): 1 clash reported. Russian airstrikes on Vesele, Oleksandrivka, Dudchany.
V. Other Significant Updates
Casualties: Updated count from the March 24 Russian missile strike on Sumy rises to 106 injured, including 23 children. No fatalities reported in Kryvyi Rih despite major destruction from drone attacks.
SBU Activity: Confirmed detention of an individual in Kryvyi Rih accused of plotting an attack on a TCC under Russian direction. Zelenskyy congratulated SBU on their professional day, highlighting successes. Ukrainian source (Butusov) praises SBU's effectiveness against FSB.
Equipment/Loss Claims: Russian MoD claims strikes on 148 UA concentration areas, airfields, UAV CPs, etc. Russian source (Colonelcassad) claims Lancet strike destroyed a Leopard tank (Pokrovsk direction). Ukrainian source (414th UAV Bde "Ptakhy Madyara") posts video showing destruction of Russian equipment. Ukrainian 128th Bde shows drone strikes on RU troops (Zaporizhzhia).
Ukrainian Logistics/Support: Ukrainian volunteer sources report delivering tires for medical vehicles, medical supplies to the "Akhilles" regiment (facilitated by volunteer funds and partners incl. from Poland), repair of thermal imager for Stinger team, and providing Starlink/vehicle support to Marines (Unit A7358).
Internal Russian Matters: Athlete Vladimir Vanyan reportedly detained by special forces after criticizing SVO/FSB; forced apology video released. General Shamarin (Head of Communications Directorate), accused of bribery, reportedly wants to join the Special Military Operation.
