Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 25, 2025, 04:46 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (04:17 UTC - 04:46 UTC)
REPORTED REDUCTION IN DOWNED DRONES OVER CRIMEA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ASTRA (04:17 UTC): Reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have shot down FIVE UKRAINIAN DRONES over Crimea on the night of March 25th. Notes this is SIX TIMES FEWER than the previous day (28 downed).
Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE ACTIVITY targeting CRIMEA, but indicates a SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION in the SCALE OF THE ATTACK compared to the PREVIOUS DAY. This COULD indicate a CHANGE IN UKRAINIAN TACTICS, RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS, or INCREASED EFFECTIVENESS of RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSES (though the latter seems less likely given the OVERALL PATTERN of INCREASING UKRAINIAN DRONE ACTIVITY).
REPORTED CASUALTIES FROM UKRAINIAN ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (04:19 UTC): Reports that MORE THAN 130 RUSSIAN CIVILIANS were INJURED and 16 KILLED in the PAST WEEK due to UKRAINIAN ATTACKS.
Assessment: This HIGHLIGHTS THE CIVILIAN COST of the CONFLICT and the IMPACT of UKRAINIAN STRIKES on RUSSIAN-CONTROLLED TERRITORY (including RUSSIA PROPER). VERIFICATION OF THESE NUMBERS is DIFFICULT, but the REPORT itself indicates a CONCERN within RUSSIAN OFFICIAL CHANNELS about CIVILIAN CASUALTIES.
REPORTED POTENTIAL US TRADE MEASURES (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (04:19 UTC): Reports that Trump stated Washington MAY ANNOUNCE ADDITIONAL TRADE DUTIES IN THE COMING DAYS. Claims the US plans to introduce MIRROR DUTIES ON FOREIGN IMPORTS on April 2nd, and that RUSSIA MAY BE INCLUDED.
Assessment: This is LARGELY UNRELATED TO IMMEDIATE MILITARY OPERATIONS in UKRAINE, but COULD HAVE LONG-TERM ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS. REQUIRES VERIFICATION and is of LOWER PRIORITY than IMMEDIATE BATTLEFIELD DEVELOPMENTS.
RUSSIAN-NORTH KOREAN COOPERATION (LOW PRIORITY):
ТАСС (04:32 UTC): Reports Russia will help North Korea with antibiotic production.
Assessment: While geopolitical in nature, it doesn't have direct impact on the immediate battlefield situations.
ТАСС (04:36 UTC): Reports Russia's Sberbank is planning to reduce the rates of mortgages.
* Assessment: No relevant military information.
UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF NAVAL REPORT
Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (04:36 UTC): Reports an update identical to the previous message at 04:11, with the number of hostile warships and missile carriers staying the same.
Assessment: The threat levels remain the same.
UPCOMING REPORT ON US-RUSSIAN NEGOTIATIONS:
WarGonzo (04:45 UTC): Showed footage of Russian representatives (Senator Grigory Karasin and FSB advisor Sergey Beseda) who represented Russia, and stated that Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov would explain details later in the day.
Assessment: The situation is unchanged from previous reports.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
ACTIVE DRONE ATTACK targeting KYIV OBLAST (from the 21:42 report, no updates in this round). AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY REPORTED. IMMEDIATE THREAT TO KYIV.
WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS (from the 21:42 report, no updates in this round).
DESTROYED BRIDGES in GRAFOVKA and NADEZHINKA, BELGOROD OBLAST (from the 21:42 report, no updates in this round).
HIGH PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK in CHUHUIV DISTRICT, KHARKIV OBLAST, resulting in CIVILIAN CASUALTIES (from the 21:42 report, no updates in this round).
REPORTED HIGH CIVILIAN CASUALTIES in RUSSIAN-CONTROLLED AREAS due to UKRAINIAN ATTACKS over the PAST WEEK.
CLAIMED RUSSIAN DEMANDS in SAUDI ARABIA NEGOTIATIONS: FULL CONTROL over DONETSK, LUHANSK, ZAPORIZHZHIA, and KHERSON OBLASTS (from the 04:16 report, no updates in this round).
REPORTED JOURNALIST INJURY: Zvezda journalist Nikita GoldinSERIOUSLY INJURED in a CLAIMED HIMARS ATTACK (from the 04:16 report, no updates in this round).
CLAIMED RUSSIAN PRIORITIES IN NEGOTIATIONS: DEEPENING COOPERATION WITH THE US and WEAKENING SANCTIONS, rather than a CEASEFIRE (from the 04:16 report, no updates in this round).
REPORTED JOINT US-RUSSIA STATEMENT regarding NEGOTIATIONS expected to be PUBLISHED AT 11:00 UTC (from the 04:16 report, no updates in this round).
REPORTED AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST due to DRONE THREAT (from the 04:16 report, no updates in this round).
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
REPORTED REDUCTION in DOWNED DRONES over CRIMEA, suggesting a POSSIBLE CHANGE IN TACTICS OR RESOURCES.
LOW PRIORITY:
REPORTED POTENTIAL US TRADE MEASURES that COULD INCLUDE RUSSIA.
RUSSIAN-NORTH KOREAN COOPERATION on ANTIBIOTIC PRODUCTION.
SBERBANK CONSIDERING REDUCING MORTGAGE RATES.
Updated Recommendations
MAINTAIN EXTREME VIGILANCE AGAINST DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): (No change from previous recommendations)
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across ALL AFFECTED REGIONS, particularly in KYIV OBLAST and KHARKIV OBLAST.
PRIORITIZE INTERCEPTING DRONES targeting KYIV and OTHER POPULATION CENTERS.
CONTINUOUSLY MONITOR DRONE MOVEMENT and ADJUST AIR DEFENSE DEPLOYMENTS accordingly.
CONTINUE ISSUING WARNINGS to CIVILIANS to REMAIN IN SHELTERS.
INVESTIGATE THE ATTACK in VELYKA BABKA to GATHER INFORMATION and PROVIDE ASSISTANCE to the INJURED.
CONTINUE INVESTIGATION OF THE BRIDGE DESTRUCTIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): (No change from previous recommendations)
CONTINUE DEPLOYING INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to GRAFOVKA and NADEZHINKA, BELGOROD OBLAST.
VERIFY the CLAIM that UKRAINIAN FORCES OCCUPIED DEMIDOVKA.
ASSESS THE REDUCTION IN DRONE ACTIVITY OVER CRIMEA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, INVESTIGATION):
ANALYZE INTELLIGENCE DATA to DETERMINE THE REASON for the REDUCED NUMBER OF DOWNED DRONES over CRIMEA.
CONSIDER POTENTIAL EXPLANATIONS, including CHANGES IN UKRAINIAN TACTICS, RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS, or IMPROVEMENTS IN RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE.
GATHER INFORMATION ON REPORTED CIVILIAN CASUALTIES (HIGH PRIORITY, INVESTIGATION):
ATTEMPT TO VERIFY the REPORTED NUMBERS of CIVILIAN CASUALTIES from UKRAINIAN ATTACKS.
GATHER INFORMATION on the SPECIFIC LOCATIONS AND CIRCUMSTANCES of the ALLEGED ATTACKS.
WAIT FOR UPDATES ON THE NEGOTIATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY).
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS.
The situation REMAINS CRITICAL, primarily due to the ONGOING DRONE ATTACK THREAT to KYIV and OTHER AREAS. The REPORTED REDUCTION IN DRONE ACTIVITY over CRIMEA is NOTEWORTHY and REQUIRES FURTHER INVESTIGATION. The HIGH NUMBER OF REPORTED CIVILIAN CASUALTIES is a SERIOUS CONCERN. CONTINUED VIGILANCE, RAPID RESPONSE, AND THOROUGH INTELLIGENCE GATHERING are ESSENTIAL.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs
Possible reconnaissance or probing activity towards Kyiv.: 0.575
Movement of small, agile units (possibly sabotage or special operations) towards or from Kyiv.: 0.33
: 0.2
Kropyvnytskyi area may be a staging or training area for similar units.: 0.072
Anti-'moped' activity indicates countermeasures are being taken against these units.: 0.728
Russian forces are consolidating their control in the Kursk Oblast region and preparing for a potential Ukrainian counter-offensive.: 0.83
The map is intentionally designed to overstate Russian gains and demoralize Ukrainian forces and their allies.: 0.27
Ukrainian forces are actively contesting control in the 'grey zone' settlements, leading to a fluid and dynamic front line.: 0.04
Russian airborne units are clearing forests and strongholds in the direction of Dmitryukov Makhnovka.: 0.5
Active assault operations near Melovoye, Ivashkovsky, Guyevo, and Makhnovka.: 0.5
Europe is searching for a Starlink alternative.: 0.6
Russia may be using a gas pipeline near Sudzha.: 0.4
Russian forces captured Ivashkovsky.: 0.88
Russian naval forces are operating in the Black Sea: 0.5
2 Shahed drones were destroyed overnight.: 0.7
Russia shot down 9 drones over Russian regions.:
A Ukrainian drone was used in an attempt to down a Russian drone: 0.6
A Ukranian BMC Kirpi was captured.: 0.4
Guided Aerial Bomb launch on Kharkiv.: 0.8
40 people were injured in an attack in Velikie Kopany.: 0.7
Russia destroyed a drone control center in Zaporizhzhia.: 0.78
Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed: 0.68
A bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of
Russian forces (Sever Group) liberated the settlements of Kositsa, Mal
RUSSIAN FORCES APPEAR TO HAVE CAPTURED SUDZHA**, with *MULTIPLE
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.93
A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.7
An "Inokhodets" drone was used to kill up to 50 enemy personnel.: 0.25
A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6
A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.63
Two boats were supposedly destroyed.: 0.6
Ukraine is prioritizing domestic weapons production, including rockets, drones, and long-range weapons, despite the continued value of foreign weapons.: 0.7
Kremlin spokesman Peskov denies reports of US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia this week.: 0.7
Damage to the roof of a building at the "Konservsushzavod" plant in Starodub, Bryansk region, Russia, after a UAV attack was confirmed.: 0.7
Alawite leaders in Syria requested protection from Israel.: 0.3
Mothers of deceased soldiers in Udmurtia are being sent to a monastery for rehabilitation.: 0.5
A drone will be sent to soldiers.: 0.4
Quad bikes are requested for soldiers.: 0.6
An image of "I love combat training" has been posted.: 0.6
Online weapons permits are now available in the Diia app.: 0.6
Ukraine refuses a ceasefire on land, as this would allow Russia to recover, and instead offers one on air and naval forces.: 0.7
Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4
The application facilitates improved control and tracking of civilian firearms, potentially impacting military strategies for maintaining public order.: 0.32
The application poses geolocation risks if not adequately secured, which could indirectly affect military security.: 0.24
The application could be used to assess and potentially mobilize armed civilians in support of military operations.: 0.16
The application's permit ordering system enhances bureaucratic efficiency but has minimal direct impact on military operations.: 0.08
Russian forces (Rubicon battle groups) are destroying Ukrainian logistics on the Sudzha-Yunakivka road.: 0.8
Soldiers of the 9th regiment have retrieved the body of their commander, Sergey Chebnev, who died in August: 0.7
800 Russian soldiers used a gas pipeline to infiltrate Ukrainian positions near Sudzha.: 0.89
Russian forces (Sever Group) liberated the settlements of Kositsa, Malaya Loknya, and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye: 0.75
Russia claims to have destroyed more than 340 troops, two tanks, seven infantry fighting vehicles, five armoured personnel carriers, ten armoured fighting vehicles, 13 motor vehicles, three self-propelled artillery systems, eight field artillery guns, one AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery warfare station, an engineering vehicle, as well as six UAV command posts, and an ammunition depot. Two AFU servicemen surrendered.: 0.7
UKRAINIAN SPECIAL FORCES OPERATIONS IN KHARKIV REGION: 0.67
Ukrainian forces counterattacked in Shevchenko: 0.55
Russia is attempting to destroy Ukrainian UAV control centers in the Zaporizhzhia region.: 0.55
Russian forces claim Malaya Loknya is completely under their control.: 0.98
Reports of captured Ukrainian soldiers in the area of CHERKASSKOE PORECHNOE.: 0.99999999999999
4 attacks were made near VOVCHANSK.: 0.9
The enemy is attempting to advance in BILOHORIVKA, FEDORIVKA and VERKHNOKAMYANSKE.: 0.9
89 enemy casualties were sustained (42 deaths) near VOVCHANSK.: 0.9
Russian forces liberated LEBEDEVKA.: 0.9
Russian infantry attack with sapper-assault group undermined a Ukrainian position in the center of LEBEDEVKA.: 0.9
There was
Two people were killed and 13 were injured in the Zaporizhzhia attack.: 0.9504
The Zaporizhzhia attack resulted in 367 strikes on 13 settlements, using various weapons, including aviation strikes, UAVs, MLRS, and artillery.: 0.7897599999999999
: 0.13824
Damage reports include 74 instances of destruction to residential properties, vehicles, and infrastructure.: 0.02989
Russian forces liberated Sribne in the DPR.: 1.0
Czech President Petr Pavel expressed readiness to send Czech troops as part of a peacekeeping mission to Ukraine.: 0.8
Russian "Inokhodets" and "Forpost" drones destroyed Ukrainian military equipment being evacuated from Kursk Oblast to Ugroedy, Sumy Oblast.: 1.0
Ukrainian 47th OMBR's "Strike Drone Company" may have been moved from Avdiivka to Kursk, and are possibly now in Belgorod.: 0.6
A civilian car was attacked by a Ukrainian drone on the Morozovsk-Tsimlyansk highway, Rostov Oblast, resulting in the death of the driver.: 0.8
There is a ballistic missile threat in areas with air raid alerts.: 0.42
A Ukrainian counter-offensive near Dzerzhinsk was a "catastrophe," with Ukrainian forces being defeated and surrendering.: 0.1
Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv Operational Zone have destroyed 89 enemies (34 irreversibly) and 149 pieces of equipment, and repelled enemy attacks near Volchansk.: 0.4
The British Prime Minister supports Trump's ideas.: 0.2
US mercenaries are calling for help and surrender in the Kursk region, suggesting a potential encirclement and involvement of elite units.: 0.3
Advances near Nelyubovka, Gogolevka, Sribnoye, and entry into Vladimirovka in the Sumy region.: 0.16
A destroyed Ukrainian M113 APC is seen, and calls for Ukrainian soldiers to surrender are made.: 0.12
A "trusting and constructive" phone call occurred between Putin and Trump, with discussions of a potential meeting requiring complex negotiations.: 0.08
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 1.0
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 1.0
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 1.0
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 1.0
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 1.0
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0
