Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 24, 2025, 20:45 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (20:17 UTC - 20:45 UTC)

REPORTED RUSSIAN CONTROL OF POPOVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- Alex Parker Returns (20:17 UTC): Claims Popovka is "occupied" by Ukrainian forces. Note that this source later contradicts itself.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (20:35 UTC): Claims Russian forces are repelling a Ukrainian attack in the Belgorod region. States Popovka is under RUSSIAN control, with ongoing fighting in Demidovka. Claims a Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on Popovka was repelled.
- Alex Parker Returns (20:22): Reports that "Two Majors" claim on Popvka may be a fake.
- Assessment: The situation in POPOVKA is UNCLEAR. Contradictory reports from Russian sources. OperaZ states that Russia repelled a Ukrainian assault, while Alex Parker Returns' claim of Ukrainian occupation and a later update about misinformation create confusion. VERIFICATION REQUIRED.

CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):
- Colonelcassad (20:43 UTC, Video): Claims Russian offensive actions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Claims heavy armored vehicle fire, followed by FPV drone strikes and an assault group advance.
- Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION. The video is TYPICAL RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA. The CLAIM of an ASSAULT GROUP ADVANCE after HEAVY ARMOR and FPV DRONE strikes NEEDS CONFIRMATION.
REPORTED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK ON KROPOTKINSKAYA OIL PUMPING STATION (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- MoD Russia (20:21): At about two o'clock in the morning, the Kiev regime attacked by UAVs the Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) in Krasnodar region. The Russian AD systems intercepted a strike drone in a range of seven km from the energy facility. The debris of the drone fell on near the Kavkazskaya railway station.

Рыбарь(20:31): Reports that the drone was shot down by Russian air defenses on the approach.

*   **Assessment:** *CONFIRMS* a *UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK* on the *KROPOTKINSKAYA OIL PUMPING STATION*, part of the *CASPIAN PIPELINE CONSORTIUM* in *KRASNODAR KRAI, RUSSIA*. This is the *THIRD ATTACK* on *ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE* during a *SUPPOSED "ENERGY CEASEFIRE,"* according to *RUSSIAN SOURCES*.

OTHER REPORTED EVENTS:
- Оперативний ЗСУ (20:18 UTC, Video): Shows Ukrainian drone strike on a light military vehicle, using split-screen thermal and visual feeds.

MoD Russia (20:21): Reports that, in Belgorod direction, units of the Sever Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of four mechanised brigades, an assault regiment of the AFU, and three territorial defence brigades close to Miropolye, Ugroyedy, Turya, and Krasnopolye (Sumy region). The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the operation to neutralise AFU formations on the territory of Kursk region. During the day, AFU losses amounted to more than 190 troops, three infantry fighting vehicles, three armoured fighting vehicles, six motor vehicles, three artillery guns, three mortars, an electronic warfare station, and three UAV command posts. Operational-Tactical Aviation, attack drones, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces engaged the military airfield infrastructure, ammunition depots, production plants, storage and training sites for the launch of unmanned aerial vehicles.
- Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (20:25, Video): Since the beginning of the year, more than 1,500 enemy armored combat vehicles and 748 tanks have been destroyed.
Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (20:26): Reports 138 combat clashes during the day. Reports 76 airstrikes (104 KABs), 794 kamikaze drones, and 4749 shelling attacks.
STERNENKO (20:25, Video): Shows drone footage of a military truck being destroyed.
РБК-Україна (20:25): The contract 18-24 will be expanded.
ТАСС (20:30): States that details surrounding the attacks on journalists suggest a deliberate, terrorist nature.
РБК-Україна (20:42): Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are only possible after a complete ceasefire.

GENERAL STAFF UPDATE (HIGH PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (20:26 UTC, Situation Report)
  - Reports 138 combat clashes so far today.
  - Reports 76 Russian airstrikes using 104 KABs, 794 kamikaze drones, and 4749 shelling attacks.
  - Kharkiv Direction: 3 Russian attacks repelled near Vovchansk.
  - Kupyansk Direction: 6 Russian assaults in Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, and Zahryzove areas. One ongoing.
  - Lyman Direction: 24 Russian attacks near Kolodyazi, Yampolivka, and towards Stepove, Novomykhailivka, Nove, Zarichne, Dronivka. Five attacks ongoing.
  - Siversk Direction: Six Russian offensive actions stopped near Bilohorivka, and towards Verkhnokamyanske.
  - Kramatorsk Direction: Five clashes near Chasiv Yar and towards Dyliivka. All repelled.
  - Toretsk Direction: 19 Russian attacks concentrated near Toretsk, Dyliivka, Dachne, and Krymske. One ongoing.
  - Pokrovsk Direction: 38 Russian attempts to break through near Panteleymonivka, Oleksandropil, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Uspenivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriyivka, and towards Pokrovsk, Kotlyarivka, Bohdanivka, Oleksiivka. Two clashes ongoing. Pokrovsk hit by airstrikes. 91 Russian casualties (52 "irreversible"). 5 vehicles, 2 IFVs, 1 motorcycle, and 1 "Supercam" drone destroyed.
  - Novopavlivka Direction: 14 Russian assaults stopped near Kostyantynopil and towards Rozlyv, Vesele.
  - Hulyiapole Direction: 3 Russian attempts to advance repelled near Novopil and towards Vilne Pole. Airstrikes on Novodarivka, Malinivka, and Hulyiapole.
  - Orikhiv Direction: Two unsuccessful Russian attempts to advance towards Lobkove. Airstrikes on Bilohirya, Mala Tokmachka, and Kamyanske.
  - Prydniprovsky Direction: No active offensive actions.
  - Kursk Direction: 18 Russian assaults, one ongoing. 13 airstrikes (17 guided bombs), 262 artillery strikes (two MLRS).
  - Highlights 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade and 40th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade.
- Assessment: THIS PROVIDES A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF THE DAY'S FIGHTING. MULTIPLE FRONTS ARE ACTIVE. HIGH INTENSITY FIGHTING continues in POKROVSK DIRECTION. The CLAIMED UKRAINIAN SUCCESSES need CAREFUL ASSESSMENT, but CONFIRM WIDESPREAD COMBAT.

Updated Situation Summary

EXTREME PRIORITY:
- CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK on the KROPOTKINSKAYA OIL PUMPING STATION in KRASNODAR KRAI, RUSSIA. THIRD SUCH ATTACK during a REPORTED "ENERGY CEASEFIRE".
- WIDESPREAD FIGHTING CONFIRMED across MULTIPLE FRONTS, per UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT. HIGH INTENSITY in POKROVSK DIRECTION.
HIGH PRIORITY:
- STATUS OF POPOVKA UNCLEAR due to CONFLICTING REPORTS. VERIFICATION REQUIRED.
Continued fighting in the Belgorod direction.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
- REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

Updated Recommendations

CLARIFY THE SITUATION IN POPOVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to DETERMINE THE CONTROLLING FORCE in POPOVKA.
- UTILIZE SATELLITE IMAGERY, DRONE RECONNAISSANCE, AND HUMAN INTELLIGENCE to ASSESS THE GROUND SITUATION.
- CROSS-REFERENCE INFORMATION from MULTIPLE SOURCES, including UKRAINIAN, RUSSIAN, and INDEPENDENT sources.
ASSESS THE UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
- ANALYZE THE REPORT IN DETAIL, focusing on CLAIMED RUSSIAN LOSSES, LOCATIONS OF FIGHTING, and UKRAINIAN UNIT PERFORMANCE.
- CORRELATE THE REPORT with OTHER INTELLIGENCE SOURCES to VERIFY CLAIMS and IDENTIFY POTENTIAL DISCREPANCIES.
- ADJUST DEFENSIVE POSITIONS AND RESOURCE ALLOCATIONS based on the ASSESSMENT.
INVESTIGATE THE KROPOTKINSKAYA OIL PUMPING STATION ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
- GATHER INFORMATION on the EXTENT OF DAMAGE to the OIL PUMPING STATION.
- ASSESS THE IMPACT on the CASPIAN PIPELINE CONSORTIUM and OIL EXPORTS.
- EVALUATE THE IMPLICATIONS of CONTINUED UKRAINIAN ATTACKS on RUSSIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE, despite REPORTED CEASEFIRE DISCUSSIONS.
VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
- DEPLOY INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the RUSSIAN CLAIMS of ADVANCES in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.
- ANALYZE THE PROVIDED VIDEO EVIDENCE CAREFULLY, looking for SIGNS OF MANIPULATION or MISREPRESENTATION.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY DYNAMIC AND DANGEROUS. The CONFIRMED ATTACK on RUSSIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE and the WIDESPREAD FIGHTING reported by the UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF are MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS. RAPID RESPONSE, ACCURATE INTELLIGENCE, AND CAREFUL ASSESSMENT are ESSENTIAL.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

Negotiations for a complete ceasefire are underway.: 0.7036
Russian forces are making significant advances in the Kursk region.: 0.85
Ukrainian forces are encircled in the Kursk region.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant casualties in the Kursk region.: 0.5
Russian forces have successfully destroyed Ukrainian positions and equipment in the Kursk region.: 0.6
The US is actively involved in mediating the ceasefire negotiations.: 0.4
The proposed ceasefire agreement will likely favor Russian territorial claims.: 0.3
Ukraine is facing significant internal pressure to agree to a ceasefire.: 0.2
The international community is divided on the terms of the proposed ceasefire.: 0.1
The ceasefire agreement, if reached, will likely lead to a prolonged period of instability.: 0.15
The Zaporizhzhia attack killed three people.: 1.0
The Zaporizhzhia attack resulted in 367 strikes on 13 settlements, using various weapons, including aviation strikes, UAVs, MLRS, and artillery.: 0.688
: 0.216
Damage reports include 74 instances of destruction to residential properties, vehicles, and infrastructure.: 0.056
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 1.0
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 1.0
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.969
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.65
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.969
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 1.0
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 1.0
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.52
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.84
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 1.0
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.84
There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.64
The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.82
A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.7
An "Inokhodets" drone was used to kill up to 50 enemy personnel.: 0.25
A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6
A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.63
Two boats were supposedly destroyed.: 0.6
Ukraine is prioritizing domestic weapons production, including rockets, drones, and long-range weapons, despite the continued value of foreign weapons.: 0.7
Kremlin spokesman Peskov denies reports of US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia this week.: 0.7
Damage to the roof of a building at the "Konservsushzavod" plant in Starodub, Bryansk region, Russia, after a UAV attack was confirmed.: 0.7
Alawite leaders in Syria requested protection from Israel.: 0.3
Mothers of deceased soldiers in Udmurtia are being sent to a monastery for rehabilitation.: 0.5
A drone will be sent to soldiers.: 0.4
Quad bikes are requested for soldiers.: 0.6
An image of "I love combat training" has been posted.: 0.6
Online weapons permits are now available in the Diia app.: 0.6
Ukraine refuses a ceasefire on land, as this would allow Russia to recover, and instead offers one on air and naval forces.: 0.7
Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4
The application facilitates improved control and tracking of civilian firearms, potentially impacting military strategies for maintaining public order.: 0.32
The application poses geolocation risks if not adequately secured, which could indirectly affect military security.: 0.24
The application could be used to assess and potentially mobilize armed civilians in support of military operations.: 0.16
The application's permit ordering system enhances bureaucratic efficiency but has minimal direct impact on military operations.: 0.08
Russian forces (Rubicon battle groups) are destroying Ukrainian logistics on the Sudzha-Yunakivka road.: 0.8
Soldiers of the 9th regiment have retrieved the body of their commander, Sergey Chebnev, who died in August: 0.7
800 Russian soldiers used a gas pipeline to infiltrate Ukrainian positions near Sudzha.: 0.89
Russian forces (Sever Group) liberated the settlements of Kositsa, Malaya Loknya, and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye: 0.75
Russia claims to have destroyed more than 340 troops, two tanks, seven infantry fighting vehicles, five armoured personnel carriers, ten armoured fighting vehicles, 13 motor vehicles, three self-propelled artillery systems, eight field artillery guns, one AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery warfare station, an engineering vehicle, as well as six UAV command posts, and an ammunition depot. Two AFU servicemen surrendered.: 0.7
Robotic platforms with RPGs, AGS grenade launchers, and a heavy machine gun were deployed by the 1st Slavic Brigade.: 0.99999999999999999999
Two children (ages 2 and 15) are among 12 injured in Kryvyi Rih.: 0.9999999999999999
Up to 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers requested to surrender.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999
A strike happened in Ilyichevsk.: 0.9999999999999999
Security advisors from Germany, France, and the UK have urgently departed for Washington for talks.: 0.999999999999999
Increased UAV activity targeting Kropyvnytskyi.: 0.8
Significant UAV activity is concentrated around Poltava.: 0.76
UAVs are moving towards Kyiv, potentially targeting Irpin/Vasylkiv: 0.85
UAV activity near Konotop: 0.66
UAVs are moving towards Pavlohrad: 0.6
UAVs are transiting from Dnipropetrovsk to Poltava: 0.64
UAV activity near Zlatopol, Kharkiv region: 0.45
UAV activity west of Sumy: 0.6
UAVs are being deployed towards Izium: 0.45
UAVs near Myrgorod are moving west: 0.6
Ukraine and Russia are closer than ever to a complete ceasefire: 0.7
6 people were killed in the Kremenskoy district: 1.0
The UN is against the attack that killed 6 people in the Kremenskoy district: 1.0
The Head of the Union of Journalists expressed condolences over the attacks in the Kremenskoy district: 1.0
3 Journalists were killed in the attacks in the Kremenskoy district: 1.0
The US-Russia negotiations in Er-Riyad lasted for more than 12 hours and discussed a moratorium on Black Sea strikes: 1.0
Border guards have been evacuated from Popovka: 0.8696
The stronghold near Popovka has been destroyed: 0.6
Videos claim Ukrainian soldiers are surrounded in the Kursk region, lacking supplies, leadership, and facing high losses: 0.665
The US State Department claimed Ukraine and Russia are close to a ceasefire: 0.7
The Russian delegation left the Ritz-Carlton hotel: 1.0
Popovka is occupied by Ukraine

Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 24, 2025, 20:45 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (20:17 UTC - 20:45 UTC)

Updated Situation Summary

Updated Recommendations

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs: