ТАСС (11:40 UTC): Reports that delegations from Russia and the US have resumed negotiations in Riyadh after a short break.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS that NEGOTIATIONS are ONGOING. The SHORT BREAK suggests INTENSE DISCUSSIONS and POTENTIAL PROGRESS or DEADLOCK REQUIRING CONSULTATION WITH RESPECTIVE CAPITALS. The LOCATION in RIYADH is NOTEWORTHY, indicating SAUDI ARABIA'S continued role as a MEDIATOR.
DETAILS OF US-UKRAINE NEGOTIATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (11:12 UTC): Reports that discussions between Ukraine and the US in Saudi Arabia focused on the safety of navigation and ending attacks on Ukrainian ports, not just in Odesa, but also in Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts. Meetings are to become regular.
Assessment: This PROVIDES GREATER CONTEXT to the US-UKRAINE TALKS. The FOCUS on MARITIME SECURITY and PORT INFRASTRUCTURE highlights the ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE of these FACILITIES and the THREAT posed by RUSSIAN ATTACKS. The REGULARITY OF MEETINGS suggests a COMMITMENT to ONGOING DIALOGUE and COORDINATION.
STERNENKO (11:13, 11:30 UTC): Reports a Russian Su-25 down, with sarcasm implying the pilot may have died despite reports.
Alex Parker Returns (11:13 UTC): Reports about Greenland.
ТАСС (11:13 UTC): Confirms that the fire in a building in Moscow has been extinguished.
Colonelcassad (11:14 UTC): Shares a full video of the Ganul killing.
Дневник Десантника (11:14 UTC): Reports on the use of a drone extender.
Оперативний ЗСУ (11:15 UTC, Photo): Confirms a Russian Su-25 is down.
ТАСС (11:16 UTC): Claims Ukrainian losses in the Kursk direction amounted to over 190 soldiers and three infantry fighting vehicles.
* ASTRA (11:17 UTC, Photo), WarGonzo (11:27 UTC), РБК-Україна (11:29 UTC, Photo), МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники (11:33 UTC), Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (11:38 UTC): Multiple sources report and confirm a Russian Su-25 crashed in Primorsky Krai during a training flight. The pilot ejected safely. The preliminary cause is technical malfunction.
* ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (11:18 UTC): Reports a Su-25 crashed.
ТАСС (11:22 UTC): Reports that a Su-25 crashed.
* Assessment: The CRASH of a RUSSIAN Su-25 in PRIMORSKY KRAI is CONFIRMED. The PILOT'S SURVIVAL is CONFIRMED, but the LOSS OF THE AIRCRAFT is a SETBACK for the RUSSIAN AIR FORCE. The REPORTED CAUSE of TECHNICAL MALFUNCTION (specifically ENGINE FAILURE) raises CONCERNS about the MAINTENANCE and RELIABILITY of the RUSSIAN FLEET. The LOCATION in PRIMORSKY KRAI, FAR FROM THE UKRAINE FRONT, suggests this was NOT DUE TO COMBAT.
CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR ROZOVKA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Сливочный каприз (11:18 UTC) claims a Russian advance to the north, and capture of advanced positions in the northern part of Rozovka.
Assessment: Requires Verification.
HOUSING FIRE IN MOSCOW, UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Шеф Hayabusa (11:40 UTC): Reports a fire in a building in Moscow.
* Assessment: The REPORT of FIRES in a HOUSING COMPLEX in MOSCOW is NOTEWORTHY, although likely UNRELATED to the MILITARY SITUATION in UKRAINE.
OTHER:
Рыбарь (11:18 UTC): Reports on the Houthi strategy.
ТАСС (11:31 UTC): Reports that Israel will participate in the celebrations of May 9.
Fighterbomber (11:32 UTC): Reports the Chelyabinsk Higher Military Aviation School of Navigators is recruiting.
Шеф Hayabusa (11:37 UTC): Requests donations.
ТАСС (11:38 UTC): Reports about a failure in the Sberbank online app.
Assessment:NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to MILITARY ASSESSMENT.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED US-RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONSRESUMED in RIYADH. INTENSE DISCUSSIONS are LIKELY.
HIGH PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN Su-25 CRASH in PRIMORSKY KRAI due to TECHNICAL MALFUNCTION. PILOT SURVIVED.
DETAILS OF US-UKRAINE TALKS reveal a FOCUS on MARITIME SECURITY and PORT PROTECTION.
GATHER ALL AVAILABLE INFORMATION on the CAUSE of the CRASH.
ASSESS THE IMPLICATIONS for the OPERATIONAL READINESS of the RUSSIAN AIR FORCE.
DETERMINE IF THIS IS AN ISOLATED INCIDENT or INDICATIVE OF A WIDER PROBLEM with the Su-25 FLEET.
FOLLOW UP ON US-UKRAINE TALKS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
ANALYZE THE IMPLICATIONS of the FOCUS on MARITIME SECURITY and PORT PROTECTION.
DEVELOP STRATEGIES to MITIGATE THE THREAT to UKRAINIAN PORTS.
COORDINATE WITH ALLIES to ENHANCE MARITIME SURVEILLANCE and DEFENSE.
VERIFY REPORTED ADVANCE (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
DEPLOY INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY the CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE near ROZOVKA.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
The situation remains CRITICAL. The RESUMPTION OF US-RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONS is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT that REQUIRES CLOSE MONITORING. The CRASH OF THE RUSSIAN Su-25 raises CONCERNS about the RELIABILITY of RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT. The DETAILS OF THE US-UKRAINE TALKS highlight the IMPORTANCE of MARITIME SECURITY.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
Negotiations for a complete ceasefire are underway.: 0.7036
Russian forces are making significant advances in the Kursk region.: 0.85
Ukrainian forces are encircled in the Kursk region.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant casualties in the Kursk region.: 0.5
Russian forces have successfully destroyed Ukrainian positions and equipment in the Kursk region.: 0.6
The US is actively involved in mediating the ceasefire negotiations.: 0.4
The proposed ceasefire agreement will likely favor Russian territorial claims.: 0.3
Ukraine is facing significant internal pressure to agree to a ceasefire.: 0.2
The international community is divided on the terms of the proposed ceasefire.: 0.1
The ceasefire agreement, if reached, will likely lead to a prolonged period of instability.: 0.15
The Zaporizhzhia attack killed three people.: 1.0
The Zaporizhzhia attack resulted in 367 strikes on 13 settlements, using various weapons, including aviation strikes, UAVs, MLRS, and artillery.: 0.688
: 0.216
Damage reports include 74 instances of destruction to residential properties, vehicles, and infrastructure.: 0.056
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 1.0
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 1.0
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.969
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.65
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.969
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 1.0
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 1.0
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.52
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.84
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 1.0
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.84
There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.64
The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.82
A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.7
An "Inokhodets" drone was used to kill up to 50 enemy personnel.: 0.25
A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6
A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.63
Two boats were supposedly destroyed.: 0.6
Ukraine is prioritizing domestic weapons production, including rockets, drones, and long-range weapons, despite the continued value of foreign weapons.: 0.7
Kremlin spokesman Peskov denies reports of US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia this week.: 0.7
Damage to the roof of a building at the "Konservsushzavod" plant in Starodub, Bryansk region, Russia, after a UAV attack was confirmed.: 0.7
Alawite leaders in Syria requested protection from Israel.: 0.3
Mothers of deceased soldiers in Udmurtia are being sent to a monastery for rehabilitation.: 0.5
A drone will be sent to soldiers.: 0.4
Quad bikes are requested for soldiers.: 0.6
An image of "I love combat training" has been posted.: 0.6
Online weapons permits are now available in the Diia app.: 0.6
Response from 2025-03-23 11:02:40 (6h-3d old):
Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 23, 2025, 11:02 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (11:01 UTC - 11:02 UTC)
The new information primarily reinforces existing assessments and provides further details, rather than introducing entirely new developments. The most significant updates are confirmations and elaborations of previously reported events.
CLAIMED UKRAINIAN RECAPTURE OF NADIYA, LUHANSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (10:14 UTC, Video): Provides additional video evidence and confirms the recapture of Nadiya by the 3rd Assault Brigade, specifically the 1st Assault Battalion.
Assessment: The DeepState confirmation, a RESPECTED ANALYTICAL SOURCE, alongside the ADDITIONAL VIDEO EVIDENCE, further strengthens the LIKELIHOOD of this SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN GAIN. The RECAPTURE of NADIYA is now considered CONFIRMED.
CONTINUED FIGHTING IN ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Два майора (10:14 UTC, Map, Video): Reiterates claims of ongoing Russian offensive actions near Stepove and Mali Shcherbaky. Reports "heavy fighting" and Ukrainian resistance with drones and artillery.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING in the ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION. The RUSSIAN CLAIMS of ADVANCES are still NOT INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED, but the REPORT OF HEAVY FIGHTING is CONSISTENT with PREVIOUS ASSESSMENTS.
CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN SUMY REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Два майора (10:32) reports Russian forces entering Vladimirovka, Sumy region, in a new sector.
Военкор Котенок (10:11 UTC, Map, Text): Claims Russian forces entered the northern outskirts of Vladimirovka, west of Basovka and Zhuravka. Reports Ukrainian forces are introducing reserves and resisting fiercely.
* Assessment: This indicates a POTENTIAL NEW AXIS OF ATTACK by RUSSIAN FORCES in the SUMY REGION. The CLAIMS of RUSSIAN ADVANCES into VLADIMIROVKAREQUIRE VERIFICATION, but the CONSISTENCY of REPORTS from MULTIPLE RUSSIAN SOURCES suggests INCREASED RUSSIAN ACTIVITY in this AREA. The REPORTED UKRAINIAN RESISTANCE and the INTRODUCTION OF RESERVES indicate INTENSE FIGHTING is LIKELY. The POTENTIAL CUTOFF OF LOGISTICAL ROUTES for UKRAINIAN FORCES in the KURSK REGION is a SIGNIFICANT CONCERN.
CONTINUED FIGHTING IN KURSK REGION, CLAIMED UKRAINIAN LOSSES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):
MoD Russia(10:31 UTC): Claims heavy Ukrainian losses during the operation to neutralize AFU formations.
НгП раZVедка (10:33 UTC, Video): Claims to show the body of a Ukrainian soldier in Kursk Oblast, describing it as evidence of a failed attempt to break through the border.
Alex Parker Returns (10:02 UTC) claims visually confirmed losses of Ukrainian equipment exceed 1000 units.
Assessment: The CLAIMED LOSSES by the RUSSIAN MoD should be treated with CAUTION, as they are likely EXAGGERATED for PROPAGANDA PURPOSES. However, the CONSISTENT REPORTS of FIGHTING in the KURSK REGION and the VIDEO EVIDENCE from НгП раZVедка, while GRAPHIC AND DISTURBING, CONFIRM the PRESENCE OF CASUALTIES. The extremely high claim from Alex Parker Returns has an extremely low belief.
ATTACK ON BELOVSKY DISTRICT HEAD'S VEHICLE, KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
ТАСС (10:22 UTC, Photos), Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (10:33 UTC, Photos), ASTRA (10:36 UTC, Photos): Multiple sources report and confirm an attack on the vehicle of the head of the Belovsky district, Kursk Oblast, while he was delivering bread. Reports claim the vehicle was attacked by Ukrainian forces. The head of the district is reportedly unharmed.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS AN ATTACK on a CIVILIAN VEHICLE in the KURSK REGION. The TARGETING of a LOCAL OFFICIAL delivering HUMANITARIAN SUPPLIES raises SERIOUS CONCERNS about POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES. VERIFICATION of the ATTACKER'S IDENTITY is NEEDED.
RUSSIAN MoD REPORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
MoD Russia (10:10, 10:31 UTC): Reports on repelling a Ukrainian attempt to invade Russian territory in the Kursk region. Claims significant Ukrainian losses (over 69,510 troops, 400 tanks, and other equipment) since the start of hostilities in the Kursk direction. Reports on Russian forces liberating Sribnoye (DPR) and inflicting losses on Ukrainian formations in various sectors, including Belgorod, Kupyansk, Donetsk, and Kherson.
Kotsnews (10:28): Reports that Russian forces liberated Sribnoye.
Assessment: The RUSSIAN MoD REPORTS should be treated with CAUTION due to KNOWN PROPAGANDA. However, the CONSISTENT REPORTS of LIBERATING SRIBNOYE suggest a LIKELY RUSSIAN ADVANCE in this AREA. The CLAIMED UKRAINIAN LOSSES are LIKELY EXAGGERATED, but the DETAILED REPORTING of SPECIFIC ENGAGEMENTS and EQUIPMENT DESTROYED warrants CLOSE MONITORING. The REPORT OF REPELLING A UKRAINIAN INVASION ATTEMPT in KURSK REGION suggests CONTINUED FIGHTING along the BORDER.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN RECAPTURE OF NADIYA, LUHANSK OBLAST. A SIGNIFICANT VICTORY for *UKRAINIAN
