Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 24, 2025, 04:11 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (03:41 UTC - 04:11 UTC)

1. FIRE AT SHOPPING CENTER IN ROSTOV-ON-DON ESCALATES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN & INDEPENDENT SOURCES):

   • ТАСС (03:43 UTC): Reports the fire at the shopping center in Rostov-on-Don has spread to the roof of a nearby residential building. Evacuation of residents is underway.
   • ТАСС (04:05 UTC): Reports the open fire at the shopping center has been extinguished, covering an area of 300 square meters.

• ТАСС (04:06 UTC): Reports the roof of the building adjacent to the shopping center is on fire, covering an area of 800 square meters. * ASTRA (Multiple Messages, 03:59 UTC): Provides multiple videos and photos of the fire at the "Astor" shopping center and the adjacent residential building. Confirms the spread of the fire and ongoing evacuation efforts. Reports that the cause of the fire is unknown, but notes the earlier report from the governor regarding a massive drone attack, with no reported casualties or damage on the ground.

*   **Assessment:** This is a *MAJOR INCIDENT*. While the *CAUSE* of the *FIRE* remains *UNKNOWN*, the *TIMING* is *SUSPICIOUS*, occurring *AFTER A REPORTED MASSIVE DRONE ATTACK* in the *REGION*. The *SPREAD* to a *RESIDENTIAL BUILDING* significantly *INCREASES THE SEVERITY* of the *INCIDENT*. It is *POSSIBLE* that the *FIRE* is *RELATED TO THE CONFLICT*, but *ACCIDENTAL CAUSES CANNOT BE RULED OUT*. *URGENT INVESTIGATION* is *REQUIRED*.

2. REPORTED FIREFIGHTING IN DONETSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (04:00 UTC): Reports a "significant roasting" (likely referring to a strike or attack) in occupied Donetsk an hour ago, resulting in a fire in the Leninsky district. The target is unclear. Provides a video.
   • Assessment: The claim uses inflammatory language.

3. RUSSIAN MILITARY AIRCRAFT ACTIVITY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Fighterbomber (04:01 UTC): Posts a photo of a Sukhoi Su-30SM fighter jet, captioned "Good morning, country!"
   • Assessment: Could be related to military actions, or propaganda.

4. REPORTED RESUMPTION OF AIRLIFT TO POLAND (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• *АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА* (04:01 UTC): Claims the "airlift" of American aid to Ukraine via Rzeszów, Poland, has resumed. Reports four flights as of the beginning of March 24, using commercial Boeing 747s from Atlas Air, totaling over 320 tons of military cargo. Provides multiple screenshots from Flightradar24.
  

*   **Assessment:** This *SUGGESTS A SIGNIFICANT RESUPPLY EFFORT* for *UKRAINIAN FORCES*. The *USE OF COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT* *MAY BE INTENDED* to *AVOID DIRECT MILITARY INVOLVEMENT* or *MAKE TRACKING MORE DIFFICULT*. The *FLIGHT PATHS* are *PROVIDED* and *CAN BE VERIFIED*. This is a *HIGH-PRIORITY DEVELOPMENT* that *REQUIRES MONITORING*.

5. SUMMARY OF RUSSIAN AIRBORNE FORCES OPERATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (04:02 UTC): Provides a summary of Russian airborne forces (VDV) operations:
     • Helicopters of the 98th Airborne Division reportedly attacked Ukrainian personnel near Chasiv Yar.
     • Units of the 98th Airborne Division reportedly destroyed Ukrainian personnel and a bunker.
     • Units of the 98th Airborne Division reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian pickup truck in Chasiv Yar.
     • BM-21 "Grad" MLRS units of the Kostroma paratroopers reportedly destroyed concentrations of Ukrainian infantry, UAV control points, and machine gun positions in Chasiv Yar.
   • Assessment: No major changes.

6. SUMMARY OF MIDDLE EAST CRISIS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Рыбарь (04:02 UTC): Provides a summary of the Middle East crisis, focusing on protests in Turkey, the situation in the Gaza Strip, and US naval movements in the Red Sea.
   • Assessment: No direct impact on the Ukrainian front.

7. RUSSIAN "FRONT-LINE MOMENTS" PHOTOS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (04:04 UTC): Posts multiple photos captioned "Moments of the SMO. Front-line weekdays." Includes images of a cat on a box with a Russian flag, a soldier with a license plate near a damaged vehicle, an enclosed space with a rifle and stove, soldiers in a bunker, and a UAV.
   • Assessment: No major changes.

8. SOUTH KOREAN PRIME MINISTER'S IMPEACHMENT REJECTED (LOW PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (03:57): Reports the Constitutional Court has rejected the attempt to impeach the Prime Minister.
   • Assessment: No direct impact on the Ukrainian front.

9. RYBAR PLATFORMS (LOW PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Рыбарь (03:45 UTC): Provides a list of platforms where their content can be found.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • FIRE AT SHOPPING CENTER IN ROSTOV-ON-DON HAS SPREAD to a RESIDENTIAL BUILDING. EVACUATIONS UNDERWAY. CAUSE UNKNOWN, but POTENTIALLY RELATED to REPORTED DRONE ATTACK. URGENT INVESTIGATION NEEDED.
  • AIR RAID ALERT in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST. IMMINENT THREAT of AIR ATTACK.
  • REPORTED RUSSIAN ATTACK in FASTIV, KYIV OBLAST, resulting in ONE INJURY and DAMAGE TO CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE.
  • CONFIRMED RUSSIAN RECONNAISSANCE DRONE ACTIVITY in SUMY OBLAST, POTENTIALLY GUIDING ATTACKS.
  • CONFIRMED USE OF GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS in DONETSK OBLAST.
  • REPORTED GUIDED AERIAL BOMB LAUNCHES TARGETING KHARKIV

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • SHIFTING AIR THREATS. DRONE THREATS LARGELY DIMINISHED (except for KHERSON AND MYKOLAIV), but THREAT FROM RUSSIAN TACTICAL AVIATION has INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. CONFIRMED LAUNCHES of GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS targeting KHARKIV, SUMY AND DONETSK REGIONS.
  • EXTENSIVE DAMAGE CONFIRMED IN ZAPORIZHZHIA from RUSSIAN ATTACK, with MULTIPLE PHOTOS providing VISUAL EVIDENCE.
  • CLAIMED CAPTURE OF FRENCH ARMORED PERSONNEL CARRIER.
  • CLAIMED CAPTURED UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT IN KURSK REGION.
  • MASSIVE DRONE ATTACK REPELLED IN ROSTOV OBLAST.
  • REPORTED GUIDED AERIAL BOMB LAUNCHES TARGETING ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.
  • CLAIMED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE on a UKRAINIAN TEMPORARY DEPLOYMENT POINT in BERESTOK. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
  • AIR RAID ALERT LIFTED in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST. IMMEDIATE THREAT HAS PASSED, but VIGILANCE REMAINS ESSENTIAL.
  • INTENSE FIGHTING IN BELGOROD OBLAST, NEAR DEMIDOVKA.
  • REPORTS OF POTENTIAL RUSSIAN INCURSIONS IN SUMY OBLAST.
  • REPORTED RESUMPTION OF AIRLIFT of AMERICAN MILITARY AID to UKRAINE via POLAND.
  • CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF 5,600 UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS.
  • CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF 185 UKRAINIAN AIR ATTACKS IN DNR.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • ONGOING INFORMATION WARFARE EFFORTS, with PROPAGANDA MESSAGES from BOTH SIDES, NOW INCLUDING DIRECT RECRUITMENT EFFORTS TARGETING UKRAINIANS.
  • CLAIMED PARTISAN ACTIVITY in SUDZHA.
  • CLAIMED CAPTURED UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT *in the KURSK REGION BORDER AREA. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
    • REPORTED STRIKE/ATTACK in OCCUPIED DONETSK, resulting in FIRE.
    • RUSSIAN MILITARY AIRCRAFT ACTIVITY.
    • RUSSIAN SOURCES claim ADVANCES in KURSK and ZAPORIZHZHIA REGIONS, and the DISRUPTION OF GAS TRANSIT through SUDZHA.
  • RUSSIAN SOURCES claim ADVANCES in KURSK and ZAPORIZHZHIA REGIONS, and the DISRUPTION OF GAS TRANSIT through SUDZHA.

• LOW PRIORITY:

  • SUMMARY OF RUSSIAN AIRBORNE FORCES OPERATIONS.

• SUMMARY OF MIDDLE EAST CRISIS.

• RUSSIAN "FRONT-LINE MOMENTS" PHOTOS.

• South Korean Prime Minister's impeachment rejected.

• Rybar platforms.

• NO CHANGE IN SECURITY SITUATION IN ENERGODAR.

Updated Recommendations

1. INVESTIGATE THE ROSTOV-ON-DON FIRE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • DEPLOY INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to DETERMINE THE CAUSE of the FIRE at the SHOPPING CENTER and ADJACENT RESIDENTIAL BUILDING in ROSTOV-ON-DON.
   • ANALYZE THE AVAILABLE VIDEOS AND PHOTOS from ASTRA and OTHER SOURCES to ASSESS THE EXTENT OF THE DAMAGE and IDENTIFY ANY POTENTIAL CLUES about the ORIGIN OF THE FIRE.
   • COORDINATE WITH RUSSIAN AUTHORITIES (if possible) to OBTAIN INFORMATION about the INVESTIGATION.
   • DETERMINE if the FIRE was RELATED TO THE REPORTED DRONE ATTACK, ACCIDENTAL, or RESULTED FROM OTHER CAUSES.
   • ASSESS THE IMPACT on CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE and PUBLIC SAFETY.

2. MONITOR THE REPORTED AIRLIFT TO POLAND (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS MONITORING):

   • TRACK THE REPORTED FLIGHTS of COMMERCIAL BOEING 747s from ATLAS AIR between the US and RZESZÓW, POLAND.
   • UTILIZE OPEN-SOURCE FLIGHT TRACKING DATA (e.g., Flightradar24) and OTHER INTELLIGENCE SOURCES to VERIFY THE FLIGHTS and ASSESS THEIR FREQUENCY AND CARGO CAPACITY.
   • ANALYZE THE FLIGHT PATHS to IDENTIFY ANY PATTERNS or POTENTIAL VULNERABILITIES.
   • ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT of this AIRLIFT on UKRAINIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES.

3. MAINTAIN VIGILANCE DESPITE AIR RAID ALERT LIFTING (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUED MONITORING):

   • MAINTAIN HEIGHTENED SURVEILLANCE of AIRSPACE, particularly around ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST and OTHER AREAS PREVIOUSLY TARGETED.
   • MONITOR FOR SIGNS of RENEWED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY.
   • ENSURE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS remain READY TO ENGAGE.

4. INVESTIGATE THE FIRE IN ROSTOV-ON-DON (MEDIUM PRIORITY, INVESTIGATION):

   • GATHER INFORMATION on the CAUSE of the FIRE at the SHOPPING CENTER in ROSTOV-ON-DON.
   • DETERMINE if it was RELATED TO THE CONFLICT or ACCIDENTAL.
   • ASSESS THE IMPACT on CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE and PUBLIC SAFETY.

5. VERIFY AND ASSESS CLAIMS FROM RUSSIAN SOURCES (HIGH PRIORITY, INVESTIGATION & ANALYSIS):

   • DEPLOY INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY CLAIMS made by RYBAR and TWO MAJORS, particularly regarding:
     • RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK and ZAPORIZHZHIA REGIONS.
     • The CAPTURE OF SRIBNOE.
     • FIGHTING near DEMIDOVKA and POTENTIAL RUSSIAN INCURSIONS in SUMY OBLAST.
     • The DISRUPTION OF GAS TRANSIT through SUDZHA.
   • UTILIZE SATELLITE IMAGERY, DRONE RECONNAISSANCE, AND HUMAN INTELLIGENCE to CONFIRM or REFUTE the CLAIMS.
   • ASSESS THE RELIABILITY of RUSSIAN SOURCES and CONSIDER POTENTIAL BIAS.

6. ADDRESS THE SHIFTING TACTICS IN BELGOROD OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, ADAPTATION):

   • ANALYZE THE REPORTED SHIFT in UKRAINIAN TACTICS in BELGOROD OBLAST, with INCREASED USE OF INFANTRY.
   • ADJUST DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES to COUNTER this SHIFT.
   • ENSURE ADEQUATE PROTECTION for RUSSIAN FORCES and CIVILIAN POPULATIONS in the AREA.

7. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains DYNAMIC AND SERIOUS. The ESCALATION of the FIRE in ROSTOV-ON-DON is a MAJOR CONCERN, REQUIRING IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION. The REPORTED RESUMPTION OF AIRLIFT to POLAND suggests INCREASED MILITARY SUPPORT for UKRAINE. CONTINUED FIGHTING, POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCES, and ONGOING INFORMATION WARFARE demand CONSTANT MONITORING and ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs

• Accidental fire due to technical malfunction or electrical fault.: 0.48
• Deliberate arson aimed at the building adjacent to the shopping center.: 0.16
• Careless handling of fire or flammable materials.: 0.12
• Collateral damage from unrelated incident (e.g., explosion, nearby fire spreading).: 0.04
• Russian authorities are attempting to suppress nationalist movements and ideologies.: 0.56
• The blocking of the VKontakte group is part of a broader effort to control online information and dissent.: 0.16
• The legal action against the VKontakte group is related to the activities or legacy of Maxim Martsinkevich.: 0.08
• Ukrainian forces conducted a drone attack on Rostov Oblast.: 0.65
• Russian forces are exaggerating the drone attack to gain support for the war effort.: 0.128
• A non-state actor conducted the drone attack.: 0.064
• The drone attack was a false flag operation by Russian forces.: 0.064
• No casualties were observed due to the attack.: 0.894
• Seven Ukrainian servicemen surrendered: 0.64.
• Ukrainian forces have suffered significant equipment losses due to effective enemy attacks.: 0.48
• The 'Kozak' armored vehicle is vulnerable to mines and/or anti-tank weapons.: 0.22
• Medical evacuation capabilities have been compromised.: 0.12
• Tactical errors in route planning or deployment contributed to the vehicle losses.: 0.08
• Ukrainian forces are adapting tactics based on observed equipment vulnerabilities and high-risk areas.: 0.08
• The threat of enemy drone strikes on the regions has been lifted.: 0.76
• The message is disinformation to lower defenses.: 0.024
• The threat has been shifted to a different area or type of attack.: 0.016
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the east.: 0.88
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions in the east.: 0.864
• Guided aerial bombs were launched towards Kharkiv region from the east.: 0.9
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.8
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions in the north-east.: 0.75
• Kherson and Mykolaiv regions are under threat of enemy drone strikes.: 0.95
• Guided aerial bombs were launched towards Sumy region.: 0.85
• A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
• Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
• The building was damaged due to shelling or explosive attack.: 0.48
• The damage impacts civilian infrastructure and may displace populations.: 0.16
• The presence of responders indicates a need for medical care and assistance.: 0.12
• The location and nature of the damage may reveal enemy targeting strategies.: 0.04
• Air raid alert in Kyiv is over.: 0.76
• There may be a lull in military activity in Kyiv.: 0.2
• There may be a lull in military activity in Kyiv: 0.024
• The alert system might have malfunctioned.: 0.016
• The video depicts the aftermath of a military strike on a built-up area.: 0.56
• Emergency services are responding to a humanitarian crisis caused by the strike.: 0.16
• The damage suggests the use of heavy artillery or aerial bombardment.: 0.08
• Enemy drone attack in Rostov region caused a fatality.: 0.64
• Saratov and Engels were struck in the most massive attack of all time: 0.97
• 132 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed.: 0.21
• Russian forces shot down a Ukrainian UAV.: 0.6
• Russia conducted 5 airstrikes on Yasna Polyana, Blakytne, and Novoivanivka.: 0.8
• 334 drones of various types attacked Zaporizhzhia, Kamyanske, Bilenke, Malokaterynivka, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, and Novodarivka.: 0.8
• 12 MLRS attacks were launched on Komyshuvakha, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, and Novodarivka.: 0.8
• 168 artillery strikes were launched on the territory of Kamyanske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, and Novodarivka.: 0.8
• Damage to cars, apartments, private houses, commercial structures, and infrastructure facilities was reported.: 0.8
• Two men were injured in an attack on Zaporizhzhia.: 0.8
• Ukrainian UAVs attacked the Engels airfield, hitting warehouses.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
• The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
• The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
• The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
• The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
• Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.86
• Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
• Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
• Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
• Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
• Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
• Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
• Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
• Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
• The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
• Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
• Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
• Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
• The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
• Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.82
• A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
• Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
• Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
• Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
• Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
• Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
• Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
• Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
• Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
• The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
• The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.7
• An "Inokhodets" drone was used to kill up to 50 enemy personnel.: 0.25
• A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6
• A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.63
• Two boats were supposedly destroyed.: 0.6
• Ukraine is prioritizing domestic weapons production, including rockets, drones, and long-range weapons, despite the continued value of foreign weapons.: 0.7
• Kremlin spokesman Peskov denies reports of US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia this week.: 0.7
• Damage to the roof of a building at the "Konservsushzavod" plant in Starodub, Bryansk region, Russia, after a UAV attack was confirmed.: 0.7
• Alawite leaders in Syria requested protection from Israel.: 0.3
• Mothers of deceased soldiers in Udmurtia are being sent to a monastery for rehabilitation.: 0.5
• A drone will be sent to soldiers.: 0.4
• Quad bikes are requested for soldiers.: 0.6
• An image of "I love combat training" has been posted.: 0.6
• Online weapons permits are now available in the Diia app.: 0.6
• Ukraine refuses a ceasefire on land, as this would allow Russia to recover, and instead offers one on air and naval forces.: 0.7
• Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4
• The application facilitates improved control and tracking of civilian firearms, potentially impacting military strategies for maintaining public order.: 0.32
• The application poses geolocation risks if not adequately secured, which could indirectly affect military security.: 0.24
• The application could be used to assess and potentially mobilize armed civilians in support of military operations.: 0.16
• The application's permit ordering system enhances bureaucratic efficiency but has minimal direct impact on military operations.: 0.08
• Russian forces (Rubicon battle groups) are destroying Ukrainian logistics on the Sudzha-Yunakivka road.: 0.8
• Soldiers of the 9th regiment have retrieved the body of their commander, Sergey Chebnev, who died in August: 0.7
• 800 Russian soldiers used a gas pipeline to infiltrate Ukrainian positions near Sudzha.: 0.89
• Russian forces (Sever Group) liberated the settlements of Kositsa, Malaya Loknya, and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye: 0.75
• Russia claims to have destroyed more than 340 troops, two tanks, seven infantry fighting vehicles, five armoured personnel carriers, ten armoured fighting vehicles, 13 motor vehicles, three self-propelled artillery systems, eight field artillery guns, one AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery warfare station, an engineering vehicle, as well as six UAV command posts, and an ammunition depot. Two AFU servicemen surrendered.: 0.7
• UKRAINIAN SPECIAL FORCES OPERATIONS IN KHARKIV REGION: 0.67
• Ukrainian forces counterattacked in Shevchenko: 0.55
• Russia is attempting to destroy Ukrainian UAV control centers in the Zaporizhzhia region.: 0.55
• Russian forces claim Malaya Loknya is completely under their control.: 0.98
• Reports of captured Ukrainian soldiers in the area of CHERKASSKOE PORECHNOE.: 0.99999999999999
• 4 attacks were made near VOVCHANSK.: 0.9
• The enemy is attempting to advance in BILOHORIVKA, FEDORIVKA and VERKHNOKAMYANSKE.: 0.9
• 89 enemy casualties were sustained (42 deaths) near VOVCHANSK.: 0.9
• Russian forces liberated LEBEDEVKA.: 0.9
• Russian infantry attack with sapper-assault group undermined a Ukrainian position in the center of LEBEDEVKA.: 0.9
• There was a Russian advance of over 600 meters in an easterly direction in LEBEDEVKA.: 0.8
• Russian airstrikes took place in MALA VOVCHA.: 0.9
• Clashes took place in the following areas: LOZOVA, PETROPAVLIVKA, *: 0.92
• Russian forces are making tactical advances near Novolyubovka.: 0.49
• Britain wants US drones to monitor the demarcation zone in Ukraine.: 0.75
• Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland declared their withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention.: 0.87
• Military personnel will be able to receive higher education.: 0.86
• Russians were using blue tape, like the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in the Kursk region: 0.52
• ALLEGED RUSSIAN SUBTERRANEAN INFILTRATION TACTIC (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): 0.75
• CONTINUED THREAT OF RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): 0.9
• CLAIMED UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): 0.69

• EXTREME PRIORITY:
• MULTIPLE BALLISTIC MISSILE THREATS, particularly for SUMY and KHARKIV OBLASTS. IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED. 0.85
• HIGH PRIORITY:
• **CLAIMED UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES. REQUIRES VERIFICATION. 0.76
• CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN COLUMN near SUDZHA. 0.88
• ONGOING PROPAGANDA AND INFORMATION WARFARE EFFORTS from BOTH SIDES. 0.87
• UKRAINIAN EFFORTS to INCREASE DOMESTIC WEAPONS PRODUCTION. 0.77 CLAIMED UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES. REQUIRES VERIFICATION. 0.54

• Vostok group is actively engaged in evacuating civilians from conflict zones.: 0.8998
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88