Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 23, 2025, 22:11 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (21:42 UTC - 22:11 UTC)

1. CONTINUED DRONE ATTACKS, MULTIPLE LOCATIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Николаевский Ванёк (21:45, 21:52 UTC): Reports:
     • 3 drones near Zaporizhzhia, with warnings of potential loud noises.
     • 1 drone approaching Zaporizhzhia, with ongoing air defense activity.
     • 2 drones circling north of Kropyvnytskyi, with ongoing air defense activity.
     • 3 drones moving from Cherkasy Oblast to Bila Tserkva district.
     • 2 drones approaching Boryspil, with warnings of potential loud noises.
     • 1 drone north of Cherkasy.
     • 7 drones from Poltava Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast.
     • 3 drones circling east of Pryluky.
     • 2 drones in the Nezhin area.
     • 4 drones circling in the Konotop area.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (21:45 UTC): Issues warnings for Kropyvnytskyi, Zaporizhzhia, and Kyiv, urging residents to stay in shelters due to the threat of enemy attack drones.
   • КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (22:00, 22:02 UTC): Announces an air raid alert in Kyiv due to the threat of Russian attack drones, urging residents to seek shelter.
     • Reports a threat of a Russian attack using UAVs.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (22:03 UTC): Reports a threat of a Russian drone attack from the south of the Zhytomyr region.
   • РБК-Україна (22:01, 22:08 UTC): Reports:
     • An air raid alert has been declared in Kyiv.
     • An explosion in Zaporizhzhia, according to OVA head Ivan Fedorov.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (22:02 UTC): Confirms the air raid alert in Kyiv due to the drone threat.
   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (22:04 UTC): Reports a fire due to enemy shelling, with emergency services on site.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (22:05 UTC): Shares a video of a parking lot burning in Vladivostok.

• РБК-Україна (22:08 UTC): Reports that, due to the attack, a fire had started.

  • Assessment: This CONFIRMS A CONTINUING, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK targeting MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE, including KYIV, ZAPORIZHZHIA, KROPYVNYTSKYI, and CHERKASY OBLAST. The REPORTS OF AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY indicate ONGOING ENGAGEMENTS. The EXPLOSION and FIRE in ZAPORIZHZHIA confirm IMPACT AND DAMAGE. The MULTIPLE REPORTS of DRONES APPROACHING KYIV indicate a SIGNIFICANT THREAT to the CAPITAL.

2. RUSSIAN TROOP INFILTRATION VIA TUNNEL (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (21:55 UTC): Provides video and claims that Russian airborne troops (VDV) from Buryatia infiltrated Ukrainian rear areas near Sudzha using an underground pipe. Reports troops initially used vehicles in underground tunnels, then proceeded on foot through the pipe, maintaining 50-100 meter distances between groups due to lack of oxygen. Cites a commander with the callsign "Sever" from the 11th Separate Guards Air Assault Brigade.

   • Colonelcassad (22:01 UTC): Claims that the 29th Combined Arms Army destroyed a Ukrainian mobile group in the vicinity of Konstantinovka.

   • Assessment: This REPORTS A NOVEL TACTIC of INFILTRATION using UNDERGROUND INFRASTRUCTURE. The CLAIM of USING A PIPE for TROOP MOVEMENT is UNUSUAL and REQUIRES CAREFUL VERIFICATION. The REPORTED LACK OF OXYGEN highlights the DIFFICULTIES AND RISKS associated with this TACTIC. The LOCATION NEAR SUDZHA is CONSISTENT with PREVIOUS REPORTS of INTENSE FIGHTING in that AREA.

3. CLAIMED DESTROYED UKRAINIAN GROUP (RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Colonelcassad (22:01): Claimed that the mobile group was led by Colonel Sergey Shatalov.
• Assessment: May be part of an information operation.

4. OTHER REPORTED EVENTS:

• Оперативний ЗСУ (21:51 UTC): Reports on an Israeli airstrike killing a Hamas member.
• Воин DV (21:59 UTC): Shows a video and states "Victory will only be ours."
• Colonelcassad (22:08 UTC): Reports on the situation in the area of Demidovka.
• TACC (22:09 UTC): Reports that the traffic on the Crimean Bridge has been temporarily suspended.
• ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (22:11 UTC): Claims that Vice President of the US said that Trump might take over Greenland.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUING, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK targeting MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE, including KYIV, ZAPORIZHZHIA, KROPYVNYTSKYI, and CHERKASY OBLAST. CONFIRMED EXPLOSION AND FIRE in ZAPORIZHZHIA. AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY REPORTED. IMMEDIATE AND SIGNIFICANT THREAT to KYIV.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • REPORTED RUSSIAN TROOP INFILTRATION near SUDZHA using an UNDERGROUND PIPE. NOVEL AND DANGEROUS TACTIC. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN EXTREME VIGILANCE AGAINST DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across ALL AFFECTED REGIONS, particularly in KYIV, ZAPORIZHZHIA, KROPYVNYTSKYI, and CHERKASY OBLAST.
   • PRIORITIZE INTERCEPTING DRONES targeting POPULATION CENTERS and CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.
   • CONTINUOUSLY MONITOR DRONE MOVEMENT and ADJUST AIR DEFENSE DEPLOYMENTS accordingly.
   • CONTINUE ISSUING WARNINGS to CIVILIANS to REMAIN IN SHELTERS.
   • ADDRESS DAMAGE AND CASUALTIES in ZAPORIZHZHIA. DEPLOY EMERGENCY RESPONSE TEAMS.
   • INVESTIGATE THE CAUSE OF THE FIRE in ZAPORIZHZHIA and ASSESS THE EXTENT OF DAMAGE.

2. INVESTIGATE THE CLAIMED RUSSIAN TROOP INFILTRATION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • DEPLOY INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to the SUDZHA AREA to VERIFY the CLAIM of RUSSIAN TROOPS using an UNDERGROUND PIPE for INFILTRATION.
   • UTILIZE SATELLITE IMAGERY, DRONE RECONNAISSANCE, AND HUMAN INTELLIGENCE to LOCATE THE ALLEGED PIPE and CONFIRM TROOP MOVEMENT.
   • ASSESS THE VULNERABILITY of UNDERGROUND INFRASTRUCTURE to INFILTRATION and DEVELOP COUNTERMEASURES.
   • PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL ENCOUNTERS with RUSSIAN FORCES that may have INFILTRATED via this ROUTE.

3. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS.

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL. The CONTINUING, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK poses the MOST IMMEDIATE THREAT, particularly to KYIV. The REPORTED RUSSIAN TROOP INFILTRATION via an UNDERGROUND PIPE represents a POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TACTICAL DEVELOPMENT that REQUIRES URGENT INVESTIGATION. CONSTANT VIGILANCE, RAPID RESPONSE, AND ACCURATE INTELLIGENCE are ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL.