Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 23, 2025, 19:22 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (19:01 UTC - 19:22 UTC)

CONTINUED FIGHTING IN/AROUND DEMIDOVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, MIXED SOURCES, CONFLICTING REPORTS):
- ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (19:02, 19:03 UTC, Photos): Claims Ukrainian forces have ADVANCED in the BELGOROD REGION, specifically mentioning DEMIDOVKA. This DIRECTLY CONTRADICTS earlier Russian claims of COMPLETE RUSSIAN CONTROL.
- Assessment: The situation in DEMIDOVKA remains EXTREMELY FLUID AND UNCLEAR. CONFLICTING CLAIMS from BOTH SIDES persist. URGENT VERIFICATION of EXACT POSITIONS is CRITICAL.
CONTINUED WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
- Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:09, 19:15, 19:17 UTC): Reports drone threats for KIROVOHRAD, KRAMATORSK, and POLTAVA OBLASTS.
- Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (19:05 UTC): Summarizes drone movements:
  - 4 drones flying under Dnipro towards Poltava Oblast.
  - 7 drones from Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Dnipro.
  - 1 drone near Sloviansk.
  - 5 drones near Lozova (Kharkiv Oblast) heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  - 3 drones flying past Balakliia towards Poltava Oblast.
- Assessment: WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS continue across a BROAD AREA OF UKRAINE. MULTIPLE REGIONS are UNDER THREAT. AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS must REMAIN AT MAXIMUM ALERT.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:08, 19:13, 19:19 UTC): Reports REPEATED guided bomb launches on SUMY OBLAST and on the BORDER OF DONETSK AND ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLASTS.
- Assessment: RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY continues, with TARGETING of MULTIPLE REGIONS. This MAINTAINS THE HIGH THREAT LEVEL.
REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN CROSS-BORDER OPERATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, MIXED SOURCES):

*   *БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС* (19:18 UTC, Video): Claims a video shows Ukrainian forces *ENTERING* the *KURSK REGION* on the *YUNAKOVKA-SUDZHA ROAD* on *MARCH 13TH*, completing a task, and then *RETURNING*. Claims the road is under *FULL RUSSIAN DRONE CONTROL*. This *CONTRADICTS* Russian claims of *COMPLETE CONTROL* of the area at that time.

*   *Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны* (19:05 UTC, Video): Claims Crimean paratroopers of the 56th Airborne Regiment are *ADVANCING* in the *SUMY OBLAST*, attacking Ukrainian forces.
*   **Assessment:** *CONFLICTING CLAIMS* regarding *CROSS-BORDER OPERATIONS* persist. *UKRAINIAN SOURCES* claim *SUCCESSFUL INFILTRATION AND RETURN*, while *RUSSIAN SOURCES* claim *ADVANCES AND DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN FORCES*.

5. OTHER REPORTED EVENTS:

WarGonzo (19:01 UTC, Photo): Reports Russian soldiers erecting a fallen cross in SVERDLIKOVO.

Updated Situation Summary

EXTREME PRIORITY:
- WIDESPREAD, COORDINATED DRONE ATTACKS CONTINUE across UKRAINE. DETAILED REPORTS indicate MULTIPLE INCOMING WAVES. IMMEDIATE AIR DEFENSE RESPONSE is ESSENTIAL.
RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES CONTINUE, targeting SUMY OBLAST, KHARKIV OBLAST, and the BORDER OF DONETSK AND ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLASTS.
HIGH PRIORITY:
- FIGHTING CONTINUES AROUND DEMIDOVKA, with CONFLICTING REPORTS on CONTROL. UKRAINIAN FORCES claim ADVANCES, while RUSSIAN SOURCES claim to be COUNTERATTACKING.
- REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN CROSS-BORDER OPERATIONS IN THE KURSK REGION.
- RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
- RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES in the SUMY OBLAST.

Updated Recommendations

MAINTAIN EXTREME VIGILANCE AGAINST AIR ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- MAINTAIN MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across ALL AFFECTED REGIONS, particularly ZAPORIZHZHIA, DNIPROPETROVSK, KHARKIV, DONETSK, SUMY, KIROVOHRAD, and POLTAVA OBLASTS.
- PRIORITIZE INTERCEPTING DRONES and GUIDED BOMBS targeting CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.
- ISSUE/MAINTAIN WARNINGS to CIVILIANS to SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
- DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE COUNTERMEASURES, including ELECTRONIC WARFARE and MOBILE FIRE TEAMS.
CLARIFY AND RESPOND TO THE SITUATION IN DEMIDOVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, URGENT ACTION):
- DEPLOY INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to DETERMINE THE PRECISE POSITIONS of BOTH UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN FORCES in and around DEMIDOVKA.
- ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR A UKRAINIAN TRAP.
- REINFORCE DEFENSIVE POSITIONS.
- PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL COUNTEROFFENSIVES to REPEL UKRAINIAN FORCES if necessary.
VERIFY AND RESPOND TO CROSS-BORDER OPERATION CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY, URGENT ACTION):
- ANALYZE THE VIDEO FOOTAGE from БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС.
  - ATTEMPT TO GEO-LOCATE THE INCIDENT to CONFIRM it occurred on the YUNAKOVKA-SUDZHA ROAD and in the KURSK REGION.
  - ASSESS THE EXTENT OF UKRAINIAN PENETRATION and the NATURE OF THEIR OPERATIONS.
  - CROSS-REFERENCE with OTHER INTELLIGENCE SOURCES.
- INVESTIGATE RUSSIAN CLAIMS of ADVANCES in the SUMY OBLAST.
  - DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATION of the claimed operations by the 56TH AIRBORNE REGIMENT.
  - ASSESS THE VALIDITY OF THE CLAIMS and the EXTENT OF ANY RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES):

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS and CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR STRIKES are IMMEDIATE THREATS. The CONFLICTING REPORTS from DEMIDOVKA and the CLAIMS OF CROSS-BORDER OPERATIONS highlight the DYNAMIC AND UNCERTAIN NATURE of the conflict on the RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN BORDER. PROTECTING CIVILIANS, MAINTAINING MILITARY READINESS, and GATHERING ACCURATE INTELLIGENCE are PARAMOUNT.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs

Ongoing combat operations are occurring in the area.: 0.32
Fog is significantly impacting operational capabilities, favoring defensive or ambush tactics.: 0.2
Intelligence gathering is focused on post-combat assessment and future targeting using thermal imaging.: 0.12
Targeted vehicles indicate a focus on disrupting enemy supply routes, troop movements, or command and control.: 0.08
The attacking forces used fog and the limited visibility it caused as a tactical advantage.: 0.08
Kyiv is under attack by drones.: 0.8416
: 0.064
Explosions in Kyiv were caused by something other than a drone attack (e.g., air defense activity, other military activity).: 0.0512
The report is inaccurate or exaggerated.: 0.0064
Vostok group is actively engaged in evacuating civilians from conflict zones.: 0.8998
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.93
A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.7
An "Inokhodets" drone was used to kill up to 50 enemy personnel.: 0.25
A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6
A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.63
Two boats were supposedly destroyed.: 0.6
Ukraine is prioritizing domestic weapons production, including rockets, drones, and long-range weapons, despite the continued value of foreign weapons.: 0.7
Kremlin spokesman Peskov denies reports of US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia this week.: 0.7
Damage to the roof of a building at the "Konservsushzavod" plant in Starodub, Bryansk region, Russia, after a UAV attack was confirmed.: 0.7
Alawite leaders in Syria requested protection from Israel.: 0.3
Mothers of deceased soldiers in Udmurtia are being sent to a monastery for rehabilitation.: 0.5
A drone will be sent to soldiers.: 0.4
Quad bikes are requested for soldiers.: 0.6
An image of "I love combat training" has been posted.: 0.6
Online weapons permits are now available in the Diia app.: 0.6
Ukraine refuses a ceasefire on land, as this would allow Russia to recover, and instead offers one on air and naval forces.: 0.7
Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4
The application facilitates improved control and tracking of civilian firearms, potentially impacting military strategies for maintaining public order.: 0.32
The application poses geolocation risks if not adequately secured, which could indirectly affect military security.: 0.24
The application could be used to assess and potentially mobilize armed civilians in support of military operations.: 0.16
The application's permit ordering system enhances bureaucratic efficiency but has minimal direct impact on military operations.: 0.08
Russian forces (Rubicon battle groups) are destroying Ukrainian logistics on the Sudzha-Yunakivka road.: 0.8
Soldiers of the 9th regiment have retrieved the body of their commander, Sergey Chebnev, who died in August: 0.7
800 Russian soldiers used a gas pipeline to infiltrate Ukrainian positions near Sudzha.: 0.89
Russian forces (Sever Group) liberated the settlements of Kositsa, Malaya Loknya, and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye: 0.75
Russia claims to have destroyed more than 340 troops, two tanks, seven infantry fighting vehicles, five armoured personnel carriers, ten armoured fighting vehicles, 13 motor vehicles, three self-propelled artillery systems, eight field artillery guns, one AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery warfare station, an engineering vehicle, as well as six UAV command posts, and an ammunition depot. Two AFU servicemen surrendered.: 0.7
Robotic platforms with RPGs, AGS grenade launchers, and a heavy machine gun were deployed by the 1st Slavic Brigade.: 0.99999999999999999999
Two children (ages 2 and 15) are among 12 injured in Kryvyi Rih.: 0.9999999999999999
Up to 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers requested to surrender.: 0.9999999
UKRAINIAN SPECIAL FORCES OPERATIONS IN KHARKIV REGION: 0.67
Ukrainian forces counterattacked
Ukrainian forces successfully shot down another Russian Zala drone using an FPV drone. : 0.88
The "Sky Reaper" operation is approaching 1000+ downed aerial targets.: 0.48
Russian forces completed the "destruction" of
Kyiv is under attack by drones.: 0.8416
Explosions in Kyiv were caused by something other than a drone attack (e.g., air defense activity, other military activity).: 0.0512
The report is inaccurate or exaggerated.: 0.0064
Russian forces are making significant advances in the Chasovoyarsk and Kupyansk directions, and near Velikonovosyolkovskoe and South-Donetsk.: 0.52
A Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone carrying four mines was shot down in the Zaporozhye direction.: 0.5
Fighting is reported near Grafovka and Demidovka in the Belgorod region. Attacks using ATVs and buggies were repelled. Russian artillery and UAVs are active against Ukrainian forces.: 0.65
Kyiv is currently under threat of drone attacks.: 0.7
The DRONE ATTACK is ONGOING, *W
Negotiations for a complete ceasefire are underway.: 0.7036
Russian forces are making significant advances in the Kursk region.: 0.85
Ukrainian forces are encircled in the Kursk region.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant casualties in the Kursk region.: 0.5
Russian forces have successfully destroyed Ukrainian positions and equipment in the Kursk region.: 0.6
The US is actively involved in mediating the ceasefire negotiations.: 0.4
The proposed ceasefire agreement will likely favor Russian territorial claims.: 0.3
Ukraine is facing significant internal pressure to agree to a ceasefire.: 0.2
The international community is divided on the terms of the proposed ceasefire.: 0.1
The ceasefire agreement, if reached, will likely lead to a prolonged period of instability.: 0.15
Two people were killed and 13 were injured in the Zaporizhzhia attack.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The Zaporizhzhia attack resulted in 367 strikes on 13 settlements, using various weapons, including aviation strikes, UAVs, MLRS, and artillery.: 0.688
: 0.216
Damage reports include
An explosion occurred in an Odesa police station after a woman entered with a package, possibly containing a bomb, injuring three police officers.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces have advanced into Demidovka, but the extent of their control is unclear, with conflicting reports from Russian sources.: 0.85
Multiple, simultaneous drone attacks are ongoing across a wide area of Ukraine, with confirmed movements in various oblasts.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russian air activity continues, with targeting of both Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts.: 0.85
The explosion in an Odesa police station is classified as a terrorist act by the SBU.: 0.9
Ukrainian forces are entering the Kursk Region on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road on March 13th.: 0.7
Crimean paratroopers of the 56th Airborne Regiment are advancing in the Sumy Oblast.: 0.6
The situation in Demidovka remains extremely fluid and unclear

Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 23, 2025, 19:22 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (19:01 UTC - 19:22 UTC)

Updated Situation Summary

Updated Recommendations

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs