Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 23, 2025, 12:00 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (11:31 UTC - 12:00 UTC)
CLAIMED RUSSIAN ARTILLERY STRIKE ON POWER SUBSTATION IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN & UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
TACC (11:51 UTC): Reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces (VSU) carried out a "massive artillery strike" on a power substation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
TACC (11:52 UTC): Reports that 11,000 subscribers were left without electricity as a result of the "massive shelling" of a substation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast by the VSU.
Assessment:TASS is a RUSSIAN STATE-AFFILIATED NEWS AGENCY, so these reports should be TREATED WITH CAUTION and VIEWED THROUGH A RUSSIAN LENS. The CLAIMS OF A "MASSIVE" UKRAINIAN STRIKE on a POWER SUBSTATION resulting in POWER OUTAGES FOR 11,000 SUBSCRIBERS are SIGNIFICANT. This would represent a MAJOR ATTACK ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, and is unusual for the Ukrainian side to attack. VERIFICATION FROM INDEPENDENT AND UKRAINIAN SOURCES is ESSENTIAL.
CONTINUED REPORTS OF KYIV CASUALTIES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (11:42 UTC, Photo): Reports that a five-year-old girl named Nicole and her father were killed by Russians in their own home, with the wounded mother hospitalized.
Оперативний ЗСУ (11:51 UTC, Photo): Reports that the "Shahed" strike in Kyiv claimed the lives of Oleksandr and his five-year-old daughter Nicole, with the mother hospitalized. States the family were refugees from Orikhiv.
РБК-Україна (11:57 UTC, Photo): Reports that Russians killed five-year-old Nicole and her father in Kyiv, with the mother hospitalized. States the family moved to the capital from Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (11:33 UTC): Reports that almost 150 drones were launched against Ukraine over night. Mentions casualties.
Assessment: These reports, from MULTIPLE UKRAINIAN SOURCES, CONFIRM CIVILIAN CASUALTIES in KYIV as a result of the OVERNIGHT DRONE ATTACK. The DEATH OF A FIVE-YEAR-OLD GIRL AND HER FATHER is a TRAGIC EVENT that REINFORCES THE HUMAN COST OF THE WAR. The reports indicate the FAMILY WERE DISPLACED FROM ORIKHIV or ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST, highlighting the WIDESPREAD IMPACT OF THE CONFLICT.
REPORTED DRONE ATTACK ON KUPYANSK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (11:49 UTC, Photo): Reports that the enemy attacked Kupyansk with attack UAVs ("Molniya" drone). States that a drone hit a tree near a private house of a 59-year-old resident, with no casualties or damage.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE ACTIVITY in the KHARKIV REGION, specifically TARGETING KUPYANSK. The USE OF A "MOLNIYA" DRONE is NOTEWORTHY. While THIS SPECIFIC ATTACK reportedly CAUSED NO CASUALTIES OR DAMAGE, it DEMONSTRATES THE ONGOING THREAT to the AREA.
CLAIMED UKRAINIAN ATTEMPTED ASSAULT ON VOLCHANSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (11:49 UTC): Reports that the enemy attempted to carry out assault operations in the Volchansk direction, but that the Defense Forces continue to keep the situation under control.
Assessment: This INDICATES CONTINUED FIGHTING in the KHARKIV REGION. The REPORTED UKRAINIAN DEFENSE against a RUSSIAN ATTEMPTED ASSAULT suggests ONGOING EFFORTS by RUSSIAN FORCES to GAIN GROUND in the AREA.
OTHER:
ASTRA (11:44 UTC): Reports that a woman died as a result of an attack on a car in the village of Novostroevka-Pervaya, Grayvoron district, Belgorod Oblast.
STERNENKO (11:42 UTC): Shows footage of a prisoner, taken by the "Da Vinci Wolves".
Басурин о главном (11:38 UTC): Shows a vehicle towing a BBQ grill.
Оперативний ЗСУ (11:37 UTC): Shows footage of a group of orcs handling a Ukrainian munition.
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (11:37 UTC): A fund raiser for the military.
Рыбарь (11:36 UTC): An update on the fighting in Yemen.
РБК-Україна (11:34 UTC): Shows an image of the Pope.
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (11:33 UTC): A fund raiser for the military.
КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (11:33): Shows footage of the attacks in Ukraine.
Colonelcassad (11:33 UTC): Witkoff's comments.
Рыбарь (11:33 UTC): An update on the fighting in Yemen.
Олексій Білошицький (11:32 UTC): Reports on new speed cameras.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (11:32 UTC): Shows footage of a mobilization.
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (11:26 UTC): A boost request.
Kotsnews (11:20 UTC): Shows footage of a drone strike.
РБК-Україна (11:20 UTC): Confirms that Russia is recruiting with increased payments.
ТАСС (11:20 UTC): Shows footage of the Pope.
Басурин о главном (11:19 UTC): Shows a meme.
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (11:18 UTC): Shows a self-inflicted injury.
Оперативний ЗСУ (11:18 UTC): Reports that Russia is recruiting with increased payments.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (11:16 UTC): Reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction.
Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (11:15 UTC): Shows soldiers signing "Contract 18-24".
Старше Эдды (11:13 UTC): Shows more drone footage.
Colonelcassad (11:12 UTC): Reports that Zelensky claims Russia used 150 drones, more than 1580 guided aerial bombs, 1,100 combat drones, and 15 missiles.
Fighterbomber (11:08 UTC): Reports upcoming discussion on military matters, including Kursk, energy infrastructure, and peacekeepers.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONTINUED, WIDESPREAD, AND MULTI-DIRECTIONAL DRONE ATTACK ACROSS UKRAINE. NUMEROUS DRONES are ACTIVE, with CONSTANT COURSE CHANGES making INTERCEPTION DIFFICULT. IMMINENT THREATS to BROVARY/BORYSPIL and POKROVSK.
INCREASED THREAT OF AIR STRIKES in NORTHEASTERN UKRAINE due to RUSSIAN TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY.
DELAYED DELIVERY OF AUSTRALIAN ABRAMS TANKS to UKRAINE due to LOGISTICAL ISSUES and US AID SUSPENSION.
HIGH PRIORITY:
CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING near DEMIDOVKA, BELGOROD OBLAST.
CLAIMED RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK on CIVILIANS in KHERSON.
RUSSIAN FORCES reported USING GROUND-BASED KAMIKAZE ROBOTS with ANTI-TANK MINES as EXPLOSIVES in KHARKIV OBLAST.
CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES near KURSK BORDER.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS on ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST, including KAB STRIKES. DAMAGE TO ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE reported.
AT LEAST ONE DRONE INTERCEPTED over KYIV, with NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE reported.
REPORTED DRONE ATTACK on KUPYANSK.
REPORTED UKRAINIAN DEFENSE against RUSSIAN ATTEMPTED ASSAULT in VOLCHANSK DIRECTION.
CLAIMED RUSSIAN ARTILLERY STRIKE ON POWER SUBSTATION IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST. 11,000 SUBSCRIBERS reportedly WITHOUT POWER. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
CONFIRMED CIVILIAN CASUALTIES IN KYIV as a result of the OVERNIGHT DRONE ATTACK, including the DEATH OF A FIVE-YEAR-OLD GIRL AND HER FATHER.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
REPORTED STRANGE ACTIVITY near BRYANSK BORDER, possibly a PSYCHOLOGICAL ATTACK.
INSTALLATION OF "GAS PIPE MONUMENT" in YEKATERINBURG, likely a PROPAGANDA EFFORT.
DRONE WARNINGS across Russia.
CONTINUED UKRAINIAN RESISTANCE in OCCUPIED TERRITORIES.
POTENTIAL EASTER CEASEFIRE proposal from WASHINGTON.
INCREASED RUSSIAN RECRUITMENT INCENTIVES.
LOW PRIORITY:None.
Updated Recommendations
INVESTIGATE THE CLAIMED ARTILLERY STRIKE ON THE ZAPORIZHZHIA POWER SUBSTATION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
DEPLOY INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY the CLAIMED ARTILLERY STRIKE on the POWER SUBSTATION in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.
PRIORITIZE IMAGERY INTELLIGENCE to CONFIRM DAMAGE to the SUBSTATION.
SEEK REPORTS FROM UKRAINIAN SOURCES to DETERMINE THE SOURCE AND NATURE OF THE ATTACK.
ASSESS THE EXTENT OF THE DAMAGE and the IMPACT ON POWER SUPPLY.
DETERMINE THE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ATTACK. IF CONFIRMED AS A UKRAINIAN STRIKE, INVESTIGATE THE RATIONALE AND POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES.
ADDRESS THE CONTINUED THREATS IN THE KHARKIV REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in the KHARKIV REGION, particularly near KUPYANSK and VOLCHANSK.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR for DRONE ACTIVITY, including RECONNAISSANCE DRONES that may INDICATE TARGETING FOR FUTURE ATTACKS.
REINFORCE DEFENSIVE POSITIONS near VOLCHANSK and OTHER AREAS where RUSSIAN FORCES are ATTEMPTING TO ADVANCE.
MAINTAIN EXTREME VIGILANCE AGAINST DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across ALL AFFECTED REGIONS, especially KYIV, KYIV OBLAST (including BROVARY/BORYSPIL), RIVNE OBLAST, ZHYTOMYR OBLAST, POLTAVA OBLAST, CHERNIHIV OBLAST, SUMY OBLAST, CHERKASY OBLAST, KROPYVNYTSKYI, KRYVYI RIH, DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST, and POKROVSK.
PRIORITIZE INTERCEPTING DRONES targeting CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.
CONTINUOUSLY MONITOR DRONE MOVEMENT and ADJUST AIR DEFENSE DEPLOYMENTS accordingly, given the CONSTANT COURSE CHANGES.
CONTINUE ISSUING WARNINGS to CIVILIANS to REMAIN IN SHELTERS.
ADDRESS THE THREAT OF AIR STRIKES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
ISSUE AIR RAID ALERTS for ALL AREAS at RISK from RUSSIAN TACTICAL AVIATION in the NORTHEAST.
DEPLOY AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS to PROTECT CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.
WARN CIVILIANS to TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
EXPEDITE TANK DELIVERY (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
EXPLORE ALL OPTIONS to OVERCOME LOGISTICAL HURDLES preventing the DELIVERY OF AUSTRALIAN ABRAMS TANKS.
COORDINATE WITH POLISH AUTHORITIES and CONSIDER PRIVATE CONTRACTORS as ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS.
EMPHASIZE THE URGENCY of the SITUATION to ALL STAKEHOLDERS.
MAINTAIN VIGILANCE AGAINST DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across ALL THREATENED AREAS.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR for DRONE ACTIVITY, especially RECONNAISSANCE DRONES, which may INDICATE TARGETING FOR FUTURE STRIKES.
DEPLOY COUNTER-DRONE MEASURES, including ELECTRONIC WARFARE, KINETIC INTERCEPTORS, and DRONE-MOUNTED INTERCEPTORS.
MONITOR AND RESPOND TO FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
MAINTAIN CLOSE SURVEILLANCE of FIGHTING in the ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION, the KURSK REGION, and the POTENTIAL NEW FRONT in the SUMY REGION.
ASSESS THE INTENSITY OF COMBAT, IDENTIFY KEY OBJECTIVES, and EVALUATE THE RISK OF FURTHER ESCALATION.
ADJUST DEFENSIVE POSITIONS and RESOURCE ALLOCATIONS as NEEDED.
VERIFY REPORTS of FIGHTING NEAR DEMIDOVKA.
INVESTIGATE CLAIMS OF RUSSIAN STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY):
GATHER INTELLIGENCE.
CONTINUE ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS.
The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL due to the combination of the CONTINUED, WIDESPREAD, AND MULTI-DIRECTIONAL DRONE ATTACK, the INCREASED THREAT OF AIR STRIKES, the DELAY IN TANK DELIVERY, and ONGOING FIGHTING on MULTIPLE FRONTS. The CLAIMED ARTILLERY STRIKE on the ZAPORIZHZHIA POWER SUBSTATION, if confirmed, would represent a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION. RAPID RESPONSE, ACCURATE INTELLIGENCE, and CONSTANT VIGILANCE are ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs
Two people were killed and 13 were injured in the Zaporizhzhia attack.: 0.9504
The Zaporizhzhia attack resulted in 367 strikes on 13 settlements, using various weapons, including aviation strikes, UAVs, MLRS, and artillery.: 0.7897599999999999
: 0.13824
Damage reports include 74 instances of destruction to residential properties, vehicles, and infrastructure.: 0.02989
Russian forces liberated Sribne in the DPR.: 1.0
Czech President Petr Pavel expressed readiness to send Czech troops as part of a peacekeeping mission to Ukraine.: 0.8
Russian "Inokhodets" and "Forpost" drones destroyed Ukrainian military equipment being evacuated from Kursk Oblast to Ugroedy, Sumy Oblast.: 1.0
Ukrainian 47th OMBR's "Strike Drone Company" may have been moved from Avdiivka to Kursk, and are possibly now in Belgorod.: 0.6
A civilian car was attacked by a Ukrainian drone on the Morozovsk-Tsimlyansk highway, Rostov Oblast, resulting in the death of the driver.: 0.8
There is a ballistic missile threat in areas with air raid alerts.: 0.42
A Ukrainian counter-offensive near Dzerzhinsk was a "catastrophe," with Ukrainian forces being defeated and surrendering.: 0.1
Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv Operational Zone have destroyed 89 enemies (34 irreversibly) and 149 pieces of equipment, and repelled enemy attacks near Volchansk.: 0.4
The British Prime Minister supports Trump's ideas.: 0.2
US mercenaries are calling for help and surrender in the Kursk region, suggesting a potential encirclement and involvement of elite units.: 0.3
Advances near Nelyubovka, Gogolevka, Sribnoye, and entry into Vladimirovka in the Sumy region.: 0.16
A destroyed Ukrainian M113 APC is seen, and calls for Ukrainian soldiers to surrender are made.: 0.12
A "trusting and constructive" phone call occurred between Putin and Trump, with discussions of a potential meeting requiring complex negotiations.: 0.08
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.0
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 1.0
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
