Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 23, 2025, 10:31 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (10:01 UTC - 10:31 UTC)

1. CLAIMED UKRAINIAN RECAPTURE OF NADIYA, LUHANSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE UKRAINIAN SOURCES, INCREASINGLY LIKELY):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, and Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (09:53 - 10:14 UTC, Video): Multiple Ukrainian sources, including the DeepState analytical group, report the recapture of Nadiya (Надія), Luhansk Oblast, by the 3rd Assault Brigade, primarily the 1st Assault Battalion. Claim 3 square kilometers retaken.
     • Claims significant Russian losses, including destruction of two mechanized regiments (752nd and 254th of the 20th Army).
     • Video evidence showing Ukrainian forces engaging Russian positions and capturing territory, including dead Russian soldiers.
   • Assessment: This represents a SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN GAIN if CONFIRMED. MULTIPLE UKRAINIAN SOURCES, including ANALYTICAL GROUPS, are reporting this, and VIDEO EVIDENCE is PRESENT. The CLAIM OF DESTROYING TWO RUSSIAN REGIMENTS is EXTREMELY HIGH and REQUIRES VERIFICATION, but the CONSISTENCY OF REPORTS and the VIDEO EVIDENCE increase the LIKELIHOOD OF A SUBSTANTIAL UKRAINIAN ADVANCE. This would represent a MAJOR BLOW to RUSSIAN FORCES in the LUHANSK REGION. URGENT VERIFICATION is REQUIRED, but PROBABILITY IS INCREASING.

2. REPORTED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES IN SUMY AND DONETSK OBLASTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Liveuamap Source(09:44): Reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes in Krasnopillya, Turya, Mykhaylivka, Uhroyidy, and Petrushivka (Sumy Oblast), and Yelyzavetivka, Serhiyivka, and Pokrovsk (Donetsk Oblast).

   • Colonelcassad (10:03:59): reports that Russian troops destroyed a 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer in the area of Uhroyidy, Sumy Oblast.

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (09:56 UTC, 10:18): Reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast and reports increased reconnaissance drone activity over Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts.

   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES, targeting MULTIPLE LOCATIONS. The use of GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS (KABs) indicates a HIGH LEVEL OF THREAT to UKRAINIAN FORCES and INFRASTRUCTURE. The INCREASED RECONNAISSANCE DRONE ACTIVITY suggests PREPARATION FOR FURTHER STRIKES. The destruction of the 2S1 "Gvozdika" is a SIGNIFICANT BLOW to the UKRAINIAN FORCES.

3. REPORTED FIGHTING IN VARIOUS SECTORS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Liveuamap Source (09:45): Reports the following:

• Clashes near Vovchansk (Kharkiv axis)

• Clashes near Zahryzove and towards Petropavlivka (Kupyansk axis)

• Clashes near Nadiya, Dibrova, Kolodyazi, Yampolivka, Torske, and towards Nove and Novomykhaylivka (Lyman axis)

• Clashes near Bilohorivka and Spirne (Siversk axis)

• Clashes near Andriyivka (Kramatorsk axis)

• Clashes near Krymske, Dyliyivka, Druzhba, Toretsk, and towards Scherbynivka (Toretsk axis)

• Clashes near Panteleymonivka, Kalynove, Vodyane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Novoukrayinka, Zelene Pole, Lysivka, Udachne, Kotlyne, Uspenivka, Kotlyarivka, Andriyivka, Novoandriyivka, and towards Pokrovsk (Pokrovsk axis)

• Clashes near Kostyantynopil and Rozlyv (Novopavlivka axis)

• Clashes near Scherbaky and Novodanylivka (Orikhiv axis)

• Liveuamap Source (09:45): Reports 25 Russian assaults repelled in the Kursk region by Ukrainian forces.

• Сливочный каприз(09:44): Reports positional fighting in the Kupyansk area. Russian forces expanded control in Dvorichna, north of the Nizhnyaya Dvorechnaya River.

• Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (09:48): Reports high-intensity fighting in the Kupyansk direction, with Russian forces expanding the bridgehead and attacking enemy rear areas. Claims Ukrainian counterattacks, partially successful, with Russian forces retreating and using artillery. Claims Russian advances south of Zagryzovo, with consolidation in Boguslavka along the Lozovaya River.

• Два майора (10:14): Reports that Russian troops are continuing offensive actions near Stepove and Maly Shcherbaky, Zaporizhzhia region.

• Военкор Котенок (10:11): Reports that Russian forces entered northern Vladimirovka (Sumy Oblast), west of Basovka and Zhuravka.

  • Assessment: WIDESPREAD FIGHTING is CONFIRMED across MULTIPLE FRONTS. The REPORTS from BOTH SIDES suggest INTENSE COMBAT in SEVERAL KEY AREAS, particularly around KUPYANSK, LYMAN, SIEVERKS, TORETSK, POKROVSK, and ORIKHIV. The CLAIM OF 25 RUSSIAN ASSAULTS REPULSED in the KURSK REGION indicates SIGNIFICANT RESISTANCE by UKRAINIAN FORCES. The REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in DVORICHNA, BOGUSLAVKA, STEPOVE, MALY SCHERBAKY, and VLADIMIROVKA require VERIFICATION, but suggest INCREASING RUSSIAN PRESSURE in SEVERAL SECTORS.

4. RUSSIAN MoD REPORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• MoD Russia (10:10, 10:31): Reports on repelling a Ukrainian attempt to invade Russian territory in the Kursk region. Claims significant Ukrainian losses (over 69,510 troops, 400 tanks, and other equipment) since the start of hostilities in the Kursk direction. Reports on Russian forces liberating Sribnoye (DPR) and inflicting losses on Ukrainian formations in various sectors, including Belgorod, Kupyansk, Donetsk, and Kherson.
• Kotsnews (10:28): Reports that Russian forces liberated Sribnoye.

*   **Assessment:** The *RUSSIAN MoD REPORTS* should be treated with *CAUTION* due to *KNOWN PROPAGANDA*. However, the *CONSISTENT REPORTS* of *LIBERATING SRIBNOYE* suggest a *LIKELY RUSSIAN ADVANCE* in this *AREA*. The *CLAIMED UKRAINIAN LOSSES* are *LIKELY EXAGGERATED*, but the *DETAILED REPORTING* of *SPECIFIC ENGAGEMENTS* and *EQUIPMENT DESTROYED* warrants *CLOSE MONITORING*. The *REPORT OF REPELLING A UKRAINIAN INVASION ATTEMPT* in *KURSK REGION* suggests *CONTINUED FIGHTING* along the *BORDER*.

5. REPORTED UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES INSIDE RUSSIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Два майора (09:56): Reports a Ukrainian drone attack on a civilian car in the Rakityansky district, Belgorod Oblast, injuring the driver.
• ASTRA (09:56 UTC): Reports a 51-year-old man died in the Oboyansky district, Kursk Oblast, after picking up an unexploded "Kolokolchik" (PFM-1) mine while collecting scrap metal.
• TASS (10:08): Reports that Lovit restored internet access, but due to the ongoing DDoS attack, a decrease in speed and inaccessibility of a number of sites is possible.

*   **Assessment:** This *SUGGESTS CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE ACTIVITY* within *RUSSIAN TERRITORY*, targeting *CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE*. *VERIFICATION NEEDED*. The report of the death from UXO highlights the danger for civilians.

6. REPORTED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE ON UKRAINIAN COMMAND POST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Народная милиция ДНР (10:01): Claims Russian aviation struck a Ukrainian temporary deployment point and command post in Aleksandropol, Donetsk Oblast, resulting in complete destruction.
• Assessment: The VIDEO ANALYSIS confirms TARGETED DESTRUCTION OF A BUILDING. This DEMONSTRATES CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE OPERATIONS. The LOCATION (Aleksandropol) is SIGNIFICANT.

7. OTHER REPORTS:

   • ТАСС(09:46): Reports a statement of a Serbian official claiming that protests in Serbia are being organized by conspirators against Trump in the USA.

• ТАСС (09:53): Reports that Putin and Trump can connect by video bridge, which remains in place and can be activated instantly.
• TACC (10:19): Reports that the US hopes to reach an agreement on a ceasefire in Ukraine by April 20, but admit that the deadline may shift.
• Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (10:09): Reports that Ukraine is a haven for arms dealers, fearing that weapons will flow to Europe, Africa, and the Middle East.
• РБК-Україна (10:29): reports that the heating season in Kyiv will end tomorrow due to the forecast of a stable warming.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CLAIMED UKRAINIAN RECAPTURE OF NADIYA, LUHANSK OBLAST. INCREASINGLY LIKELY due to MULTIPLE SOURCES and VIDEO EVIDENCE. REQUIRES URGENT CONTINUED VERIFICATION.
  • WIDESPREAD FIGHTING CONFIRMED across MULTIPLE FRONTS. HIGH INTENSITY reported in SEVERAL KEY AREAS. REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in SEVERAL SECTORS.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES, including GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS, targeting SUMY and DONETSK OBLASTS. INCREASED RECONNAISSANCE DRONE ACTIVITY.
  • REPORTED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK on CIVILIAN CAR in BELGOROD OBLAST. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
  • REPORTED DEATH from UXO in KURSK OBLAST.
  • CONTINUED DRONE ACTIVITY, with UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE ENGAGEMENTS reported.

• RUSSIAN MOD REPORTS suggest CONTINUED OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS and CLAIMED UKRAINIAN LOSSES. TREAT WITH CAUTION, but MONITOR CLOSELY.

• CLAIMED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE on UKRAINIAN COMMAND POST. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • Reports of political discussions between world leaders.

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY THE RECAPTURE OF NADIYA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to CONFIRM the UKRAINIAN CLAIM of RECAPTURING NADIYA.
   • UTILIZE SATELLITE IMAGERY, DRONE RECONNAISSANCE, AND HUMAN INTELLIGENCE to ASSESS THE SITUATION on the GROUND.
   • ANALYZE THE VIDEO EVIDENCE provided by UKRAINIAN SOURCES CAREFULLY.
   • ASSESS THE CLAIMED RUSSIAN LOSSES, particularly the REPORTED DESTRUCTION of TWO REGIMENTS. INCREASING LIKELIHOOD due to MULTIPLE SOURCE REPORTING and VIDEO EVIDENCE.

2. MAINTAIN VIGILANCE AGAINST AIRSTRIKES AND DRONE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, particularly in DONETSK and SUMY OBLASTS due to REPORTED AIRSTRIKES and INCREASED RECONNAISSANCE DRONE ACTIVITY.
   • CONTINUE TO MONITOR for DRONE ACTIVITY, especially from the BLACK SEA towards ODESA.
   • ISSUE WARNINGS to CIVILIANS and MILITARY UNITS in AFFECTED AREAS.

3. INVESTIGATE THE BELGOROD OBLAST DRONE ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • GATHER INFORMATION about the REPORTED DRONE ATTACK on a CIVILIAN CAR in BELGOROD OBLAST.
   • VERIFY THE INCIDENT and ASSESS THE DAMAGE.
   • PROVIDE MEDICAL ASSISTANCE to the INJURED DRIVER.
   • DETERMINE THE ORIGIN OF THE DRONE and IDENTIFY POTENTIAL LAUNCH SITES.

4. ADDRESS THE UXO DANGER IN KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • LAUNCH A PUBLIC AWARENESS CAMPAIGN to WARN CIVILIANS about the DANGERS OF UXO.
   • DEPLOY EXPLOSIVE ORDNANCE DISPOSAL (EOD) TEAMS to CLEAR CONTAMINATED AREAS, prioritizing AREAS FREQUENTED BY CIVILIANS.

5. CONTINUE MONITORING FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN CLOSE SURVEILLANCE of the REPORTED FIGHTING in KUPYANSK, LYMAN, SIEVERKS, TORETSK, POKROVSK, ORIKHIV, the KURSK REGION, and the SUMY REGION.
   • ASSESS THE INTENSITY OF COMBAT, IDENTIFY KEY OBJECTIVES, and EVALUATE THE RISK OF FURTHER ESCALATION.
   • ADJUST DEFENSIVE POSITIONS and RESOURCE ALLOCATIONS as NEEDED. PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION to REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES.

6. ANALYZE RUSSIAN MoD REPORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • CAREFULLY ASSESS the RUSSIAN MoD REPORTS, comparing them to OTHER SOURCES to IDENTIFY POTENTIAL DISINFORMATION.
   • FOCUS ON SPECIFIC CLAIMS, such as the LIBERATION OF SRIBNOYE, and ATTEMPT TO VERIFY them through INDEPENDENT MEANS.
   • MONITOR FOR PATTERNS in RUSSIAN REPORTING that may REVEAL FUTURE INTENTIONS.

7. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES). The situation remains EXTREMELY DYNAMIC AND DANGEROUS. The CLAIMED RECAPTURE OF NADIYA is a POTENTIALLY MAJOR DEVELOPMENT that is INCREASINGLY LIKELY but REQUIRES IMMEDIATE CONTINUED VERIFICATION. The CONTINUED FIGHTING across MULTIPLE FRONTS, the RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES, the DRONE ACTIVITY, and the RUSSIAN MoD REPORTS all POSE SIGNIFICANT THREATS and REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING. RAPID RESPONSE, ACCURATE INTELLIGENCE, AND CAREFUL ASSESSMENT are CRITICAL.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• Two people were killed and 13 were injured in the Zaporizhzhia attack.: 0.9504
• The Zaporizhzhia attack resulted in 367 strikes on 13 settlements, using various weapons, including aviation strikes, UAVs, MLRS, and artillery.: 0.7897599999999999
• : 0.13824
• Damage reports include 74 instances of destruction to residential properties, vehicles, and infrastructure.: 0.02989
• Russian forces liberated Sribne in the DPR.: 1.0
• Czech President Petr Pavel expressed readiness to send Czech troops as part of a peacekeeping mission to Ukraine.: 0.8
• Russian "Inokhodets" and "Forpost" drones destroyed Ukrainian military equipment being evacuated from Kursk Oblast to Ugroedy, Sumy Oblast.: 1.0
• Ukrainian 47th OMBR's "Strike Drone Company" may have been moved from Avdiivka to Kursk, and are possibly now in Belgorod.: 0.6
• A civilian car was attacked by a Ukrainian drone on the Morozovsk-Tsimlyansk highway, Rostov Oblast, resulting in the death of the driver.: 0.8
• There is a ballistic missile threat in areas with air raid alerts.: 0.42
• A Ukrainian counter-offensive near Dzerzhinsk was a "catastrophe," with Ukrainian forces being defeated and surrendering.: 0.1
• Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv Operational Zone have destroyed 89 enemies (34 irreversibly) and 149 pieces of equipment, and repelled enemy attacks near Volchansk.: 0.4
• The British Prime Minister supports Trump's ideas.: 0.2
• US mercenaries are calling for help and surrender in the Kursk region, suggesting a potential encirclement and involvement of elite units.: 0.3
• Advances near Nelyubovka, Gogolevka, Sribnoye, and entry into Vladimirovka in the Sumy region.: 0.16
• A destroyed Ukrainian M113 APC is seen, and calls for Ukrainian soldiers to surrender are made.: 0.12
• A "trusting and constructive" phone call occurred between Putin and Trump, with discussions of a potential meeting requiring complex negotiations.: 0.08
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.0
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
• A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
• An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
• Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
• All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
• The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
• Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
• The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
• 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
• Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
• Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
• Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 1.0
• Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
• Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
• Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
• Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
• Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
• Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
• UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
• Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
• The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
• Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
• Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
• Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
• The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
• Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
• An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
• A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
• The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
• The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
• The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
• A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
• Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
• The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
• Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
• Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
• Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
• Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
• Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
• Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
• Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
• Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
• Russian helicopters are