Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 23, 2025, 07:01 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (06:31 UTC - 07:01 UTC)

CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN SELF-PROPELLED ARTILLERY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (07:01 UTC): Video claims to show a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit (SAU) being destroyed in the Krasnoyaruzhsky district of Belgorod Oblast. The video alleges the SAU was detected and targeted by Russian "Iksvod" operators.
- Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION. RUSSIAN SOURCE, so POTENTIAL BIAS. The video DOES SHOW a STRIKE on a VEHICLE, which APPEARS TO BE A SELF-PROPELLED ARTILLERY PIECE. IF CONFIRMED, this represents a LOSS for UKRAINIAN FORCES operating INSIDE RUSSIAN TERRITORY. The LOCATION, if accurate, REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of FIGHTING in the KRASNOYARUZHSKY DISTRICT.
UKRAINIAN DRONE USE IN KHARKIV OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- ОТУ "Харків" (06:34 UTC): Multiple posts and images showcase Ukrainian drone operations in the Kharkiv region, including:
  - Claims of using domestically produced "Sych" long-range drones to strike targets deep in enemy territory.
  - Images of drone preparation and operation, including nighttime activity.
  - Mention of a drone with a skull and crossbones emblem.
- Assessment: CONFIRMS the CONTINUED USE of DRONES by UKRAINIAN FORCES for RECONNAISSANCE, TARGETING, and POSSIBLY STRIKES. The CLAIM of using "SYCH" drones for DEEP STRIKES is NOTEWORTHY, but REQUIRES FURTHER VERIFICATION. The MULTIPLE IMAGES CORROBORATE the ACTIVE USE of DRONES.
REPORTED CASUALTIES IN KYIV (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN/RUSSIAN SOURCES):
- ASTRA (06:34 UTC): Reports three deaths and ten injuries in Kyiv as a result of a nighttime attack, citing the Kyiv City Military Administration. Includes a claim that a 5-year-old child was among the dead and an 11-month-old among the injured.
- Assessment: REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. IF CONFIRMED, this represents a SIGNIFICANT and TRAGIC CIVILIAN TOLL from the OVERNIGHT DRONE ATTACK. CROSS-REFERENCE with OTHER SOURCES to CONFIRM THE DETAILS. PRIORITIZE GATHERING INFORMATION about the CIRCUMSTANCES of the ATTACK and the VICTIMS.
REPORTED DAMAGE AND CASUALTIES IN KHARKIV OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (06:37 UTC): Provides a detailed summary of attacks and casualties in Kharkiv Oblast, including:
  - Drone strikes on Pechenihy, damaging an administrative building and a lyceum.
  - Drone damage to a private house in Heniivka.
  - Guided aerial bomb (KAB) attack on Borova, damaging a medical building, ambulances, and a private house, with a 70-year-old woman injured.
  - FPV drone strikes on Klynova-Novoselivka, injuring three women (57, 54, and 67 years old).
  - FPV drone strike on Vovchansk, injuring a 72-year-old man.
  - "Molniya" drone strike on Shestakove.
  - MLRS shelling on Shypuvate, damaging a water tower.
  - Four enemy attempts to breach defenses near Vovchansk on the Kharkiv front.
  - Four enemy attacks on the Kupyansk front near Zahryzove and in the direction of Petropavlivka.
- Assessment: CONFIRMS a WIDE RANGE OF ATTACKS targeting CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE and CAUSING CIVILIAN CASUALTIES in KHARKIV OBLAST. The DETAIL provided by the REGIONAL GOVERNOR INCREASES CONFIDENCE in the REPORTS. REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of INTENSIFIED FIGHTING and ATTACKS in the REGION.
CLAIMED UKRAINIAN DRONE SHOOTDOWNS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (06:43 UTC, 06:44 UTC, 06:50 UTC, 06:57 UTC): Report that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 97 out of 147 enemy drones overnight, including 25 "decoy" drones. Claims a higher-than-usual number of attack drones (at least 122) were used. Reports damage in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Odesa, and Donetsk regions.
- Сили оборони Півдня України (06:51 UTC): Report that air defenses of Southern Ukraine shot down 13 "Shahed 131/136" drones.
- Assessment: CONFIRMS a MAJOR and WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK with HIGH NUMBERS of DRONES involved. UKRAINIAN CLAIMS of SHOOTING DOWN 97 DRONES, if accurate, INDICATE EFFECTIVE AIR DEFENSE but also HIGHLIGHT THE SCALE OF THE THREAT. CONFIRMS DAMAGE in MULTIPLE REGIONS.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS ON TARGETING UKRAINIAN TROOPS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

WarGonzo (06:36 UTC): Claims a Russian drone strike force ("Каскад") targets the troops entering Belgorod.
Colonelcassad (06:43 UTC): Claims that in the Ulyanovka village, a launcher for the S-300 system was eliminated.
MoD Russia (06:43 UTC): Claims that Russian assault units are practicing military operations, including attacking with a UAV support.

*   **Assessment:** *REQUIRES VERIFICATION*.

OTHER:
- STERNENKO (07:00 UTC): Reports a fifth day of burning at the "Kavkazskaya" oil pumping station, with a new explosion recorded overnight.
- Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (06:56 UTC): Reports the use of guided bombs in Sumy Oblast.
- Assessment: CONFIRMS ONGOING DAMAGE at the OIL PUMPING STATION, POTENTIALLY DISRUPTING OIL FLOWS. CONFIRMS the CONTINUED USE of GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS by RUSSIA.

Updated Situation Summary

EXTREME PRIORITY:
- REPORTED CASUALTIES in KYIV from the OVERNIGHT DRONE ATTACK, including POSSIBLE CHILD FATALITIES. REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.
- CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE DRONE ATTACK across MULTIPLE REGIONS, with CLAIMED HIGH NUMBERS of DRONES SHOT DOWN but also CONFIRMED DAMAGE.
HIGH PRIORITY:
- CLAIMED DESTRUCTION of a UKRAINIAN SAU in BELGOROD OBLAST. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
- DETAILED REPORTS of DAMAGE and CASUALTIES in KHARKIV OBLAST from DRONE STRIKES, GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS, and SHELLING.
- CONFIRMED DAMAGE at the "KAVKAZSKAYA" OIL PUMPING STATION, with ONGOING BURNING and a NEW EXPLOSION.
- RUSSIAN GUIDED BOMBS REPORTED in SUMY OBLAST.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
- CONFIRMED USE of DRONES by UKRAINIAN FORCES in KHARKIV OBLAST, with CLAIMS of USING LONG-RANGE DRONES for DEEP STRIKES.

Updated Recommendations

VERIFY AND ADDRESS CASUALTIES IN KYIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE ASSETS to CONFIRM the REPORTED CASUALTIES in KYIV, including the CLAIMED CHILD FATALITIES.
- PROVIDE IMMEDIATE MEDICAL ASSISTANCE to the INJURED.
- GATHER INFORMATION about the CIRCUMSTANCES of the ATTACK that led to the CASUALTIES.
- PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL PUBLIC OUTCRY and INTERNATIONAL CONDEMNATION if CIVILIAN CASUALTIES, especially CHILD FATALITIES, are CONFIRMED.
CONTINUE COUNTER-DRONE OPERATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
- MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across ALL AFFECTED REGIONS.
- PRIORITIZE INTERCEPTING DRONES targeting POPULATION CENTERS and CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.
- ANALYZE DRONE TRAJECTORIES and ATTACK PATTERNS to IMPROVE DEFENSE STRATEGIES.
- ASSESS THE EFFECTIVENESS of SHOOTING DOWN "DECOY" DRONES and ADJUST TACTICS as NEEDED.
INVESTIGATE AND ADDRESS DAMAGE IN KHARKIV OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- DEPLOY EMERGENCY SERVICES to AFFECTED AREAS to PROVIDE ASSISTANCE to CIVILIANS, EXTINGUISH FIRES, and REPAIR DAMAGE.
- GATHER INFORMATION about the EXTENT OF DAMAGE to CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE and CASUALTIES.
- ASSESS THE IMPACT of the ATTACKS on MILITARY OPERATIONS in the REGION.
- REINFORCE DEFENSES in VULNERABLE AREAS, particularly near VOVCHANSK and KUPYANSK.
VERIFY CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN SAU (HIGH PRIORITY, RAPID ACTION):
- ANALYZE THE VIDEO FOOTAGE provided by АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА.
  - GEO-LOCATE THE STRIKE to CONFIRM it occurred in the KRASNOYARUZHSKY DISTRICT.
  - IDENTIFY THE TARGET as ACCURATELY AS POSSIBLE (type of SAU).
  - ASSESS THE DAMAGE to DETERMINE if the SAU was DESTROYED or DISABLED.
- CROSS-REFERENCE with OTHER INTELLIGENCE SOURCES to CORROBORATE THE CLAIM.
- ASSESS THE IMPLICATIONS of UKRAINIAN SAUs operating INSIDE RUSSIAN TERRITORY.
ASSESS DAMAGE TO "KAVKAZSKAYA" OIL PUMPING STATION (HIGH PRIORITY, RAPID ACTION):
- GATHER INTELLIGENCE to DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF DAMAGE and the IMPACT on OIL FLOWS.
- **ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER EXPLOSIONS or FIRES.
- **PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL DISRUPTIONS to ENERGY SUPPLIES.
MONITOR FOR GUIDED AERIAL BOMB ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
- MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in SUMY OBLAST and OTHER AREAS where GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS are BEING USED.
- PROVIDE TIMELY WARNINGS to TROOPS and CIVILIANS.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous updates remain relevant, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation REMAINS HIGHLY DYNAMIC AND DANGEROUS. The REPORTED CASUALTIES in KYIV and the CONTINUED WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS are the MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERNS. DAMAGE in KHARKIV OBLAST and the ONGOING FIRE at the "KAVKAZSKAYA" OIL PUMPING STATION also require URGENT ATTENTION. RAPID RESPONSE, ACCURATE INTELLIGENCE, and EFFECTIVE COORDINATION are ESSENTIAL.

Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs

The image is propaganda mocking the Russian military's losses in the conflict.: 0.48
The image is a satirical commentary on Putin's leadership during the war.: 0.24
The image intends to demoralize Russian forces by highlighting casualties and the involvement of the GRU.: 0.08
Russia is utilizing military contracts as a means of recruiting individuals facing criminal charges.: 0.32
The Russian judicial system is experiencing a shift in workload due to the conflict in Ukraine.: 0.24
The decrease in criminal cases is directly correlated with the increase in military contract recruitment.: 0.12
The individuals recruited via military contracts may pose reliability or disciplinary concerns within the armed forces.: 0.08
This recruitment strategy indicates a potential strain on traditional recruitment methods for the Russian military.: 0.04
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.82
A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.7
An "Inokhodets" drone was used to kill up to 50 enemy personnel.: 0.25
A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6
A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.63
Two boats were supposedly destroyed.: 0.6
Ukraine is prioritizing domestic weapons production, including rockets, drones, and long-range weapons, despite the continued value of foreign weapons.: 0.7
Kremlin spokesman Peskov denies reports of US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia this week.: 0.7
Damage to the roof of a building at the "Konservsushzavod" plant in Starodub, Bryansk region, Russia, after a UAV attack was confirmed.: 0.7
Alawite leaders in Syria requested protection from Israel.: 0.3
Mothers of deceased soldiers in Udmurtia are being sent to a monastery for rehabilitation.: 0.5
A drone will be sent to soldiers.: 0.4
Quad bikes are requested for soldiers.: 0.6
An image of "I love combat training" has been posted.: 0.6
Online weapons permits are now available in the
An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.81
There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.55
The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.03
The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.06
A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudz

Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 23, 2025, 07:01 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (06:31 UTC - 07:01 UTC)

Updated Situation Summary

Updated Recommendations

Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs