Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 23, 2025, 02:31 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (02:02 UTC - 02:31 UTC)
CONFIRMED KYIV DEATH TOLL (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (02:13 UTC): Reports TWO DEATHS in Kyiv as a result of the drone attack: one woman in Dniprovskyi district, and another person in Holosiivskyi district.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS FATALITIES from the ONGOING DRONE ATTACK in KYIV. The REPORT OF TWO DEATHS is a CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT, highlighting the SEVERE HUMAN COST of the ATTACK. The SPECIFIC DISTRICTS are IDENTIFIED, allowing for TARGETED RESPONSE EFFORTS.
Colonelcassad (02:03 UTC): Claims Ukrainian forces used a new drone, 95% similar to the "Bulava" drone (presented as a "Lancet" analogue), in the Kursk region a couple of weeks ago. The drone was reportedly brought down by electronic warfare ("Sever" group) and destroyed by sappers.
COMPONENT ANALYSIS: Claims the drone uses an American Silvus radio module (similar to the Ram-x), operating in the 2.2-2.5 GHz range, with a "Shark" drone acting as a relay. Claims potential AI target acquisition capability.
Assessment: This PROVIDES INSIGHTS into UKRAINIAN DRONE TECHNOLOGY and TACTICS. The REPORTED USE OF WESTERN TECHNOLOGY (Silvus radio module) is SIGNIFICANT. The CLAIM OF ELECTRONIC WARFARE INTERFERENCE suggests RUSSIAN COUNTER-DRONE CAPABILITIES are EFFECTIVE. The DESTRUCTION OF THE DRONE by SAPPERS represents a LOSS OF POTENTIAL INTELLIGENCE. The REPORTED SIMILARITY to the ZALA-LANCET is NOTEWORTHY.
RUSSIAN STRIKE ON "AZOV" BRIGADE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (02:03 UTC): Claims Russian "West" group forces used a "Tornado-S" MLRS to strike a temporary deployment point of the Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade ("Azov"), resulting in over 10 casualties.
Assessment: This REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If confirmed, it indicates CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS targeting SPECIFIC UKRAINIAN UNITS. The USE OF MLRS suggests a POTENTIALLY LARGE-SCALE STRIKE. The CLAIM OF CASUALTIES is NOTEWORTHY, but REQUIRES INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (02:11 UTC): Reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the EASTERN DIRECTION, with a THREAT OF AIR STRIKES in FRONTLINE REGIONS.
Assessment: This SIGNALS AN INCREASED THREAT LEVEL in EASTERN UKRAINE. The POTENTIAL FOR AIR STRIKES is a SERIOUS CONCERN. UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS and GROUND FORCES should be on HIGH ALERT.
OTHER:
TASS (02:12 UTC): Reports about the risk of free Wi-Fi and chargers.
Assessment: This is irrelevant to the military situation.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
ONGOING, MASSIVE, MULTI-DIRECTIONAL DRONE ATTACK across UKRAINE, with KYIV AND KYIV OBLAST as PRIMARY TARGETS. EXTREME THREAT to the CAPITAL and SURROUNDING REGIONS.
CONFIRMED TWO DEATHS in KYIV due to the DRONE ATTACK. CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT.
HIGH PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED DETAILS of the ZAPORIZHZHIA ATTACK, with TWO DEATHS (a FATHER AND DAUGHTER) and NINE INJURED (including an INFANT). TWELVE "SHAHED" DRONES used, targeting CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE.
RUSSIAN CLAIM of SUDZHA LIBERATION. REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. If true, this is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT.
ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY in the EAST, with a THREAT OF AIR STRIKES.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
UKRAINIAN DRONE ASSESSMENT reveals USE OF WESTERN TECHNOLOGY and SIMILAR TACTICS to the ZALA-LANCET.
RUSSIAN STRIKE on "AZOV" brigade, CLAIMING OVER 10 CASUALTIES. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
Updated Recommendations
ADDRESS THE CONFIRMED DEATHS IN KYIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
PROVIDE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT to the FAMILIES OF THE DECEASED in KYIV.
ENSURE ALL INJURED INDIVIDUALS in KYIV and ZAPORIZHZHIA receive IMMEDIATE AND ADEQUATE MEDICAL CARE.
CONTINUE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT and RECOVERY EFFORTS in ALL AFFECTED AREAS.
LAUNCH THOROUGH INVESTIGATIONS into the ATTACKS, gathering EVIDENCE and IDENTIFYING THOSE RESPONSIBLE.
MAINTAIN AND INCREASE AIR DEFENSE ALERT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across UKRAINE, particularly in KYIV and EASTERN REGIONS.
CONTINUOUSLY TRACK DRONE AND AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS and ISSUE TIMELY WARNINGS to CIVILIANS and MILITARY UNITS.
PRIORITIZE THE INTERCEPTION OF DRONES AND AIRCRAFT targeting POPULATION CENTERS and CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.
INVESTIGATE THE REPORTED RUSSIAN STRIKE on the "AZOV" brigade, GATHERING INTELLIGENCE from MULTIPLE SOURCES to CONFIRM or REFUTE the CLAIM.
CONTINUE MONITORINGALL AVAILABLE SOURCES for FURTHER INFORMATION on the SITUATION IN SUDZHA.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES):
The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL. The CONFIRMATION OF TWO DEATHS in KYIV is a TRAGIC DEVELOPMENT. The ONGOING DRONE ATTACK, ENEMY AVIATION ACTIVITY, and REPORTS OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES require IMMEDIATE AND SUSTAINED ATTENTION. ACCURATE INTELLIGENCE, RAPID RESPONSE, EFFECTIVE COMMUNICATION, and ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES are ESSENTIAL.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs
The updated beliefs based on the most recent messages and the combined beliefs from the 01:31 UTC analysis:
Russian forces are conducting a coordinated drone attack on Kyiv targeting multiple districts.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The drone strikes are intended to cause damage to critical infrastructure or civilian targets in Kyiv.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The attack is intended to test Ukrainian air defenses and response capabilities.: 0.08
The fires are a result of the drone strikes and are spreading to multiple locations.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russian banks are implementing new security measures to combat fraud, including enhanced mobile app functionality and parental notification of teenage account activity.: 0.56
Cybercriminals are increasingly targeting Russian citizens through bank transfers and tokenized cards, prompting regulatory intervention.: 0.16
The Russian government is actively promoting cybersecurity awareness and providing resources for citizens to report cybercrime through platforms like 'Cyberpolice of Russia'.: 0.08
Target is a high-value military asset.: 0.32
Target is critical infrastructure (e.g., power plant, communication hub).: 0.24
Target is a civilian area and the descent is an intelligence gathering mission.: 0.12
Target is a staging area for enemy combatants or vehicles.: 0.08
The video is a simulation or training exercise.: 0.04
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.9776
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.93
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian mortar position near Konstantinovka using FPV drones.: 0.8
The destruction of the mortar position indicates ongoing counter-battery warfare.: 0.8
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Pokrovsk, reportedly destroying NATO equipment.: 0.75
The reports on destroyed NATO equipment are likely exaggerated for propaganda purposes.: 0.3
The video evidence is inconclusive and needs further verification.: 0.11
The US Army is forming a new strategic artillery division in Hawaii (3rd Brigade).: 0.7
The new division will be equipped with the "Typhon" medium-range surface-to-air missile system.: 0.7
The "Typhon" system can also launch Tomahawk cruise missiles.: 0.7
The deployment is aimed at countering China, particularly in light of potential operations against Taiwan.: 0.7
A car caught fire on a highway in Rostov Oblast, Russia, due to a drone attack, resulting in one death.: 0.8
Two people were killed in Kyiv as a result of a Russian attack.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
A fire at an unspecified enterprise in Kyiv Oblast was extinguished, with no casualties.: 0.8
Two people were injured and three houses were damaged in Krukovshchyna, Bucha district, due to falling drone debris.: 0.8
Russian 16th Special Forces Brigade destroyed a Ukrainian pickup truck near Torske, potentially using a R-33 "Gretts" signal jamming system.: 0.68
A Russian propaganda video details an operation involving underground tunnels ("Поток"), with claims of using blue tape and mentioning commanders "Морпех" and "Баллончик".: 0.32
Ukrainian forces are sustaining casualties in the Torske region: 0.7
Russian forces used a Tornado-S MLRS to strike a temporary deployment of the Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade ("Azov") and claim to have killed 10 servicemen.: 0.5
A downed Ukrainian drone, potentially a "Bulava" analogue to the Russian "Lancet," was found in the Kursk region.: 0.8
The Ukrainian drone reportedly utilizes a US-made Silvus radio module, similar to those found in RAM-X drones, operating in the 2.2-2.5 GHz range.: 0.7
The drone was likely brought down by electronic warfare (EW) by the Russian "Sever" group.: 0.7
The drone was destroyed on-site by Russian sappers, preventing further technical analysis.: 0.6
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the eastern direction, posing a threat of airstrikes in frontline regions.: 0.88
