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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-03-22 21:02:37Z
11 months ago
Previous (2025-03-22 20:32:34Z)

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 22, 2025, 21:01 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (20:31 UTC - 21:01 UTC)

The new messages primarily provide updates and confirmations, with some new developments:

  1. CONTINUED DRONE ATTACKS ACROSS UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

    • Николаевский Ванёк (20:46 UTC): Updates drone positions:
      • 1 approaching Bila Tserkva (expect activity).
      • 2 in Bila Tserkva district.
      • 1 each circling north and south of Kropyvnytskyi.
      • 4 moving from Poltava Oblast to Cherkasy Oblast.
      • 3 near Okhtyrka, moving towards Poltava Oblast.
      • 7 near Shostka, heading west.
    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (20:55 UTC): Provides updated drone positions:
      • UAVs west of Poltava, heading west.
      • UAVs south of Kyiv, heading west.
      • UAVs north of Kharkiv, moving towards Poltava Oblast.
      • UAVs north of Chernihiv and Sumy, heading southwest.
      • UAVs in Kirovohrad Oblast, heading west.
    • Assessment: CONFIRMS CONTINUED, WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY, with updates confirming many PREVIOUSLY REPORTED LOCATIONS. The AIR FORCE UPDATES add GREATER PRECISION. The MOVEMENT TOWARDS WESTERN DIRECTIONS is a CONSISTENT TREND. BILA TSERKVA appears to be a CURRENT FOCAL POINT.
  2. ZAPORIZHZHIA SITUATION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

    • No major updates beyond confirmations of previous reports.
    • Assessment: ZAPORIZHZHIA remains under INTENSE PRESSURE, with CONFIRMED KAB STRIKES and INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE. The SITUATION REMAINS CRITICAL.
  3. BORDER CLASHES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

    • No substantial new updates, mostly confirming previous reports and social commentary.
    • Assessment: BORDER CLASHES near BELGOROD and KURSK REGIONS are CONFIRMED, but the SPECIFIC DETAILS remain UNCLEAR. The SITUATION REMAINS VOLATILE.
  4. UKRAINIAN DOMESTIC WEAPONS PRODUCTION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, OFFICIAL, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (20:32 UTC): Reports Ukraine has established licensed production of Czech small arms ammunition and is producing Bren-2 assault rifles under license from Česká Zbrojovka.
    • Assessment: SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT for UKRAINIAN DEFENSE CAPABILITY. This REDUCES RELIANCE ON FOREIGN SUPPLIES for SMALL ARMS and AMMUNITION. It indicates a LONG-TERM STRATEGY to BOLSTER DOMESTIC DEFENSE PRODUCTION.
  5. ITALY SUSPENDS STARLINK NEGOTIATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

  • РБК-Україна (20:53 UTC): Reports that Italy put talks on hold with SpaceX because of Musk's statements.
    • Assessment: CONFIRMED, indicating a POTENTIAL SETBACK for UKRAINE'S ACCESS TO STARLINK, due to POLITICAL CONCERNS over ELON MUSK'S STATEMENTS.
  1. OTHER REPORTED EVENTS:
    • Alex Parker Returns (20:33 UTC): Reports a false conspiracy about George Floyd. DISINFORMATION.
    • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (20:37 UTC): Reports that the Russian Investigative Committee stated that Ukraine was not connected to the Crocus Attack, attributing it to ISIS. UNVERIFIED.
    • Alex Parker Returns (20:37 UTC): Shows an image of Russian soldiers.
    • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (20:37 UTC): Shows a video from Sudzha.
    • Оперативний ЗСУ (20:38 UTC): Claims that marines are destroying Russian troops. PROPAGANDA.
    • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (20:41 UTC): Reports on a Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian MLRS. CONFIRMED.
    • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (20:42 UTC): Reports European countries are increasing their military, quoting Stern magazine.
    • Colonelcassad (20:43 UTC): Reports on Ukrainian mortars found in Niger. UNVERIFIED.
    • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (20:48 UTC): Reports on a fire near Kyiv.
    • Colonelcassad (20:53 UTC): Shows aftermath footage of a FAB attack.

Updated Situation Summary

  • EXTREME PRIORITY:

    • CONTINUED, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK ACROSS UKRAINE. NUMEROUS DRONES ACTIVE, with UPDATED LOCATIONS and MOVEMENT TRENDS. BILA TSERKVA is a FOCAL POINT.
    • ZAPORIZHZHIA SITUATION REMAINS CRITICAL, with CONFIRMED KAB STRIKES and INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE.
  • HIGH PRIORITY:

    • INTENSE FIGHTING ALONG THE BELGOROD AND KURSK BORDERS, but FEW NEW DETAILS.
  • MEDIUM PRIORITY:

    • UKRAINE ESTABLISHES DOMESTIC PRODUCTION of CZECH SMALL ARMS and AMMUNITION.
    • ITALY SUSPENDS STARLINK NEGOTIATIONS.
    • UKRAINIAN FORCES continue attacking RUSSIAN TARGETS using HIMARS.
  • LOW PRIORITY:

  • RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA/DISINFORMATION continues.

Updated Recommendations

  1. MAINTAIN EXTREME VIGILANCE AGAINST DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • MAINTAIN MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across ALL AFFECTED REGIONS, particularly tracking updates from Николаевский Ванёк and the Ukrainian Air Force.
    • PRIORITIZE INTERCEPTING DRONES targeting CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.
    • CONTINUOUSLY MONITOR DRONE MOVEMENT and ADJUST AIR DEFENSE DEPLOYMENTS accordingly. BILA TSERKVA requires PARTICULAR ATTENTION.
    • CONTINUE ISSUING WARNINGS to CIVILIANS to REMAIN IN SHELTERS.
  2. ADDRESS THE SITUATION IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • CONTINUE PROVIDING MEDICAL ASSISTANCE to the INJURED.
    • CONTINUE ASSESSING DAMAGE and REPAIRING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE.
    • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS.
  3. MONITOR BORDER CLASHES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

    • CONTINUE GATHERING INTELLIGENCE to VERIFY CLAIMS of RUSSIAN ADVANCES and UKRAINIAN INCURSIONS.
    • MAINTAIN REINFORCED DEFENSES along the BORDER.
  4. SUPPORT DOMESTIC WEAPONS PRODUCTION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, LONG-TERM ACTION):

    • PROVIDE NECESSARY RESOURCES and SUPPORT to EXPAND DOMESTIC PRODUCTION of SMALL ARMS and AMMUNITION.
    • EXPLORE FURTHER OPPORTUNITIES for LICENSED PRODUCTION of OTHER WEAPON SYSTEMS.
  5. ADDRESS POTENTIAL STARLINK DISRUPTION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, URGENT ACTION):

    • EXPLORE ALTERNATIVE COMMUNICATION SOLUTIONS to MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL LOSS of STARLINK ACCESS.
    • ENGAGE WITH ALLIES to SEEK ALTERNATIVE PROVIDERS of SATELLITE COMMUNICATION SERVICES.
  6. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL due to the PERSISTENT DRONE THREAT and the ONGOING FIGHTING. The DEVELOPMENT OF DOMESTIC WEAPONS PRODUCTION is a POSITIVE STEP, but the IMMEDIATE THREATS require CONSTANT VIGILANCE and RAPID RESPONSE.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs

  • Building was damaged by shelling/explosions.: 0.48

  • : 0.2

  • Active fire or residual heat is present in the building.: 0.16

  • Image is part of a Ukrainian information operation.: 0.16

  • The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88

  • Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 1.0

  • The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9

  • The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1

  • The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08

  • The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02

  • Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51

  • Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0

  • Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0

  • Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05

  • Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 1.0

  • Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4

  • 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1

  • Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1

  • Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05

  • Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05

  • Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85

  • Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5

  • Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76

  • Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5

  • Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85

  • There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999

  • Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3

  • Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1

  • Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56

  • Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8

  • The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3

  • Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2

  • There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7

  • Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8

  • There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6

  • There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56

  • Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5

  • There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42

  • Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44

  • Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2

  • Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88

  • There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999

  • Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72

  • A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44

  • A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46

  • A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48

  • Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6

  • Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6

  • Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32

  • There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7

  • Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9

  • There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7

  • Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65

  • There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7

  • A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9

  • Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8

  • Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68

  • Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7

  • Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7

  • Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65

  • Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6

  • The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1

  • The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15

  • The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01

  • Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5

  • A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6

  • The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83

  • Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84

  • US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8

  • The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6

  • The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01

  • Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7

  • The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.

  • The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4

  • The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16

  • Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12

  • Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08

  • The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.

  • Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59

  • Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5

  • Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2

  • On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3

  • Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63

  • Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93

  • Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85

  • Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5

  • The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9

  • One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6

  • Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7

  • Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6

  • Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65

  • Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6

  • 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7

  • Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7

  • Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7

  • Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7

  • Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6

  • Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8

  • Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3

  • Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9

  • Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6

  • The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7

  • Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6

  • Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7

  • There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5

  • A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4

  • A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58

  • An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4

  • Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8

  • All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6

  • Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5

  • The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7

  • Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7

  • The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6

  • 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4

  • 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8

  • Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3

  • Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85

  • Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.999999999999999999999999

  • Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7

  • Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8

  • Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7

  • Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85

  • Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95

  • Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68

  • UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6

  • Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88

  • The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85

  • Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7

  • Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1

  • Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56

  • The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16

  • Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08

  • An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6

  • Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7

  • Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6

  • A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7

  • The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6

  • Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8

  • Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78

  • There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58

  • The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04

  • The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04

  • A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8

  • Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42

  • The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7

  • Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68

  • There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64

  • Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65

  • Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78

  • Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45

  • Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55

  • Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7

  • Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7

  • Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55

  • Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54

  • Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47

  • Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47

  • The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47

  • Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78

  • Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72

  • Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65

  • The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67

  • Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.93

  • A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7

  • Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7

  • Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7

  • Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7

  • Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7

  • Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7

  • Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42

  • Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5

  • Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5

  • The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6

  • The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.7

  • An "Inokhodets" drone was used to kill up to 50 enemy personnel.: 0.25

  • A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6

  • A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.63

  • Two boats were supposedly destroyed.: 0.6

  • Ukraine is prioritizing domestic weapons production, including rockets, drones, and long-range weapons, despite the continued value of foreign weapons.: 0.7

  • Kremlin spokesman Peskov denies reports of US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia this week.: 0.7

  • Damage to the roof of a building at the "Konservsushzavod" plant in Starodub, Bryansk region, Russia, after a UAV attack was confirmed.: 0.7

  • Alawite leaders in Syria requested protection from Israel.: 0.3

  • Mothers of deceased soldiers in Udmurtia are being sent to a monastery for rehabilitation.: 0.5

  • A drone will be sent to soldiers.: 0.4

  • Quad bikes are requested for soldiers.: 0.6

  • An image of "I love combat training" has been posted.: 0.6

  • Online weapons permits are now available in the Diia app.: 0.6

  • Ukraine refuses a ceasefire on land, as this would allow Russia to recover, and instead offers one on air and naval forces.: 0.7

  • Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4

  • The application facilitates improved control and tracking of civilian firearms, potentially impacting military strategies for maintaining public order.: 0.32

  • The application poses geolocation risks if not adequately secured, which could indirectly affect military security.: 0.24

  • The application could be used to assess and potentially mobilize armed civilians in support of military operations.: 0.16

  • The application's permit ordering system enhances bureaucratic efficiency but has minimal direct impact on military operations.: 0.08

  • Russian forces (Rubicon battle groups) are destroying Ukrainian logistics on the Sudzha-Yunakivka road.: 0.8

  • Soldiers of the 9th regiment have retrieved the body of their commander, Sergey Chebnev, who died in August: 0.7

  • 800 Russian soldiers used a gas pipeline to infiltrate Ukrainian positions near Sudzha.: 0.89

  • Russian forces (Sever Group) liberated the settlements of Kositsa, Malaya Loknya, and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye: 0.75

  • Russia claims to have destroyed more than 340 troops, two tanks, seven infantry fighting vehicles, five armoured personnel carriers, ten armoured fighting vehicles, 13 motor vehicles, three self-propelled artillery systems, eight field artillery guns, one AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery warfare station, an

  • UKRAINIAN SPECIAL FORCES OPERATIONS IN KH

Response from 2025-03-20 06:25:03 (6h-3d old):

Updated Analysis of Military Situation: March 20, 2025, 06:23 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (05:53 UTC - 06:23 UTC)

  1. ENGELS ATTACK AFTERMATH (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

    • ASTRA (06:07 UTC): Reports the Saratov Oblast Governor CONFIRMED EVACUATION due to a fire at the MILITARY AIRFIELD. States SECONDARY DETONATIONS ARE HEARD in NEARBY AREAS. Claims a STRIKE HIT an AMMUNITION DEPOT.
    • Оперативний ЗСУ (05:59 UTC): Posts images and video of the fire and states "Engels, situation."
    • Assessment: CONFIRMS a MAJOR INCIDENT at the ENGELS AIR BASE. EVACUATIONS are UNDERWAY. SECONDARY DETONATIONS suggest DAMAGE TO AMMUNITION STORAGE, corroborating Ukrainian claims. This is CONSISTENT WITH A SUCCESSFUL UKRAINIAN STRIKE, potentially using DRONES. The SCALE OF THE DAMAGE and IMPACT ON RUSSIAN STRATEGIC BOMBER OPERATIONS remain UNCLEAR, but this is POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT.
    • There are now reports of damages to local infrastructure and medical services.
  2. REPORTED FIGHTING NEAR BELGOROD BORDER (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

    • Два майора (06:12 UTC), citing Старший Погранотряда: Provides a border summary, stating that the operational situation near DEMIDOVKA (Krasnoyaruzhsky district, Belgorod Oblast) remains DIFFICULT. Claims Ukrainian INFANTRY managed to ADVANCE BEYOND THE "DRAGON'S TEETH" (anti-tank obstacles) and APPROACHED THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE VILLAGE. Reports ONGOING SMALL ARMS FIRE. Claims NO ENEMY EQUIPMENT IS CURRENTLY BEING USED. States Russian border guards and Defense Ministry units are HOLDING THEIR POSITIONS and ENGAGING IN COMBAT.
    • WarGonzo (05:44): Reports that the Russian forces are holding off the attacks on the intersection between the Kursk and Belgorod Regions, near Demidovka.
    • Assessment: CONFIRMS INTENSE FIGHTING in the BELGOROD REGION, near DEMIDOVKA. UKRAINIAN INFANTRY is reportedly ADVANCING, having OVERCOME ANTI-TANK OBSTACLES. The LACK OF ENEMY EQUIPMENT use suggests a POSSIBLE DISMOUNTED INFANTRY ASSAULT. This is a MAJOR ESCALATION and POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT to RUSSIAN BORDER SECURITY. The claim that Russian forces are HOLDING THEIR POSITIONS suggests FIERCE RESISTANCE.
  3. REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR LOBKOVE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

  • WarGonzo (05:44): Reports advances by Russian forces in the direction of Lobkove, after successes in Stepovoe. * Assessment: Requires verification.
  1. REPORTED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES AND SHELLING (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (06:02): Reports in the last 24 hours that Russia has completed 1 missile and 72 airstrikes, in addition to 123 attacks using guided aerial bombs (KAB), and 2,560 attacks using kamikaze drones.
    • Assessment: CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN AERIAL BOMBARDMENT across MULTIPLE REGIONS.
  1. CLAIMED SHOOTDOWN OF UKRAINIAN F-16 (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, NO OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION):

    • Kotsnews (06:06 UTC): Claims, citing military sources, that Russian forces SHOT DOWN an F-16 in SUMY OBLAST, using a Su-35 FIGHTER and an S-400 AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM. NO OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION. Provides a detailed technical explanation of how such a shootdown could be achieved.
    • Assessment: This is a MAJOR CLAIM and REQUIRES CAUTIOUS INTERPRETATION. NO OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION has been provided. The TECHNICAL EXPLANATION is PLAUSIBLE, but DOES NOT CONSTITUTE PROOF. If confirmed, this would be the FIRST REPORTED LOSS of a UKRAINIAN F-16 and a MAJOR PROPAGANDA VICTORY for RUSSIA. REQUIRES IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION.
  2. REPORTED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS AND CASUALTIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

    • STERNENKO (05:49): States that there are ten casualties, including 4 children, due to a massive attack in Kropyvnytskyi.
    • РБК-Україна (06:20): Reports a massive attack in Kropyvnytskyi overnight, with damage to civil infrastructure.
    • КМВА (06:02): States 17 drones were detected near Kyiv, 11 of which were shot down.
    • Assessment: *CONFIRMS CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATT
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