Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 22, 2025, 17:31 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (17:01 UTC - 17:31 UTC)

1. UPDATE ON DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (17:02 UTC): Provides an update on enemy attack drone movements:
     • Drones from Sumy Oblast are moving into Chernihiv Oblast, heading southwest.
     • Drones in the north of Zaporizhzhia Oblast are moving northwest.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (17:17 UTC): Reports a threat of enemy attack drones in Kharkiv Oblast.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (17:21 UTC): Reports a threat from enemy drones moving from the southeast towards Dnipro city.
   • Assessment: CONTINUED, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS. The SHIFT IN FOCUS to KHARKIV OBLAST and DNIPRO CITY is SIGNIFICANT. The MULTIPLE TRAJECTORIES indicate an attempt to OVERWHELM AIR DEFENSES.

2. UPDATED CASUALTY FIGURES IN POKROVSK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (17:20 UTC): Reports the death toll in Pokrovsk has risen to three, with one additional person injured.
   • Assessment: This INCREASE in the REPORTED CASUALTIES further highlights the HUMANITARIAN IMPACT of RUSSIAN ATTACKS on CIVILIAN AREAS.

3. CLAIMED RUSSIAN MLRS ATTACK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • MoD Russia (17:05 UTC): Video. Claims a BM-21 Grad MLRS crew of the Northern Fleet marines hit Ukrainian armored hardware and manpower clusters in the Kakhovka direction.
   • Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION. The USE OF MLRS is CONSISTENT with RUSSIAN TACTICS. The CLAIMED TARGET (armored hardware and manpower) is PLAUSIBLE.

4. PROPAGANDA:

   • Alex Parker Returns (17:06 UTC): Reports on US "gold visas".
   • ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (17:16 UTC): Reports Estonia and the Netherlands increasing support for Ukraine's energy and defense.
   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (17:16 UTC): Reports European countries are developing a plan to replace the US in NATO, triggered by a threat of US departure.
   • Басурин о главном (17:18 UTC): Claims common sense is present in some Americans, and that Crimea is the "pearl of Russia."
   • Alex Parker Returns (17:30 UTC): Reports US is selling more gold visas.

5. UKRAINIAN SOLDIER RECRUITMENT (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (17:19 UTC): Video. Features an interview with a 21-year-old Ukrainian soldier encouraging young people to join the Armed Forces of Ukraine, highlighting the "Reserve+" program.
   • Assessment: This is a RECRUITMENT EFFORT aimed at YOUNGER DEMOGRAPHICS.

6. REPORTED DEATH OF RUSSIAN TACTICAL MEDICINE INSTRUCTOR (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Два майора (17:04 UTC), Kotsnews (16:59 UTC): Reports the death of Ivan Nikolaevich Demidov ("Botox"), a tactical medicine instructor, in Belgorod Oblast.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT LOSS for RUSSIAN FORCES if TRUE. TACTICAL MEDICINE INSTRUCTORS are VALUABLE ASSETS. The LOCATION OF DEATH (Belgorod Oblast) is CONSISTENT with ONGOING FIGHTING in the AREA.

7. REPORTED UKRAINIAN TROOP MOVEMENTS NEAR BELGOROD BORDER (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора (17:18, 17:25 UTC): Claims Ukrainian forces are strengthening their presence near the Belgorod border. Reports specific unit movements and deployments, including withdrawals from the Kursk region and redeployments to the Krasnoyaruzhsk direction. Claims Ukrainian forces are weakened but still pose a threat.
   • Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION. The SPECIFIC UNIT MOVEMENTS and LOCATIONS are DETAILED but UNCONFIRMED. The CLAIM OF WEAKENED UKRAINIAN FORCES is PLAUSIBLE given PREVIOUS REPORTS of LOSSES, but REQUIRES CONFIRMATION.

8. CLAIMED RUSSIAN PURSUIT OF UKRAINIAN FORCES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (17:30 UTC): Video and images. Claims Russian forces are pursuing a group of Ukrainian soldiers in a pickup truck near the Sudzha checkpoint in Kursk Oblast. Claims the Ukrainian forces are attempting to flee into Sumy Oblast.
   • Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION. The CLAIM OF PURSUIT is PLAUSIBLE given the REPORTED FIGHTING in the AREA. The VIDEO AND IMAGES need GEOLOCATION and VERIFICATION.

9. REPORTED RUSSIAN SU-34 LANDING WITHOUT LANDING GEAR (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Fighterbomber (17:29 UTC): Image. Claims a Russian Su-34 successfully landed without its landing gear.
   • Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If TRUE, this is a SIGNIFICANT INCIDENT indicating either MECHANICAL FAILURE or COMBAT DAMAGE. The PILOT'S SKILL in LANDING THE AIRCRAFT without MAJOR DAMAGE is NOTEWORTHY.

10. REPORTED LITHUANIAN BORDER MINING (LOW PRIORITY):

• РБК-Україна(17:06): Reports Lithuania will be mining the border with Russia and Belarus.

11. UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL VISIT TO KHARKIV (LOW PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Zelenskiy / Official (17:15, 17:16 UTC): Video. Shows President Zelensky visiting command posts in Kharkiv, discussing tactics for combating Russian drones, and awarding soldiers.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS. SHIFT IN FOCUS to KHARKIV OBLAST and DNIPRO CITY.

• RUSSIAN STRIKE ON KRAMATORSK. ONE CIVILIAN INJURED. DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE.

• THREE DEAD AND ONE INJURED. POKROVSK. * TERRORIST ATTACK IN MOSCOW one year prior, with a high death toll. POTENTIAL FOR RUSSIAN RETALIATION. * ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVE in EAST. HIGH THREAT of AIR STRIKES. * CONTINUED, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS. * MAJOR FIRE CONTINUES AT THE SUDZHA GAS PIPELINE.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

• RUSSIAN STRIKE on OLEKSANDRIVKA, ZOLOCHIV DISTRICT. THREE CIVILIANS INJURED, ONE SERIOUSLY.

• **RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KAMENSKOE. REQUIRES VERIFICATION. * CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN COMMAND POST. REQUIRES VERIFICATION. * CLAIMED SUCCESSFUL RUSSIAN FPV DRONE STRIKE near KRASNOARMEISK. * REPORTS OF CONTINUED RUSSIAN GROUND-BASED DRONE USE in KHARKIV REGION. * CONTINUED DRONE WARFARE on BOTH SIDES. UKRAINIAN FORCES report SUCCESSFUL DRONE STRIKES. * POTENTIAL CEASEFIRE NEGOTIATIONS, focused on the BLACK SEA and ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE. NO DIRECT MEETINGS between UKRAINE and RUSSIA reported. * TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS at KAZAN AIRPORT LIFTED. * REPORTED UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES near KURAKHOVO. * REPORTED INDIRECT NEGOTIATIONS between UKRAINE and RUSSIA in SAUDI ARABIA. REQUIRES CONFIRMATION. * REPORTS OF UNREST IN TURKEY. REQUIRES VERIFICATION. * REPORTS OF US AND ALLIES PREPARING FOR CONFLICT WITH CHINA. * REPORTED CAPTURE OF RUSSIAN SOLDIERS in DONETSK OBLAST. REQUIRES VERIFICATION. * RUSSIAN CLAIM REGARDING ZAPORIZHZHIA NUCLEAR POWER PLANT. * REPORTED RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE in VREMEVSKY DIRECTION. REQUIRES VERIFICATION. * REPORTED SWEDISH MILITARY AID, including AEWCS AIRCRAFT. * REPORTED ESTONIAN MILITARY AID, including DRONES. * AIR RAID ALERT in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST. DRONE THREAT.

• CIVILIAN INJURED in VOVCHANSK by RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE. TARGETING OF CIVILIANS. * CIVILIAN INJURED in BELGOROD OBLAST. CONTINUED FIGHTING near the BORDER. * KIM JONG UN PLEDGES CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR RUSSIA. POTENTIAL INCREASE IN MILITARY COOPERATION. * PERSISTENT RUSSIAN THREAT OF RETALIATORY STRIKES on UKRAINIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE. OFFICIAL STATEMENT reinforces this threat. * CONTINUED FIGHTING near the BELGOROD BORDER, * CONTINUED FIGHTING near the KURSK BORDER. RUSSIAN MoD REPORTS OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS and TARGETING of UKRAINIAN FORCES. * NEW DEVELOPMENT: RUSSIAN USE OF GROUND-BASED KAMIKAZE DRONES in KHARKIV REGION. * CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN AIRSTRIKE on a RUSSIAN BORDER OUTPOST COMMAND POST in GLOTOVO, BELGOROD OBLAST. DAMAGE TO COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT. * THREE CIVILIANS INJURED in NIKOPOL REGION due to RUSSIAN ATTACKS. DAMAGE TO CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE.

• AT LEAST TWO KILLED, THREE INJURED in DONETSK OBLAST due to RUSSIAN SHELLING. * REPORTED UKRAINIAN TROOP MOVEMENTS near the BELGOROD BORDER. * REPORTED DEATH of RUSSIAN TACTICAL MEDICINE INSTRUCTOR in BELGOROD OBLAST.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • REPORTED RUSSIAN SU-34 LANDING without LANDING GEAR.
  • CLAIMED RUSSIAN MLRS ATTACK in KAKHOVKA DIRECTION.

• LOW PRIORITY:

  • UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL VISIT to KHARKIV.
  • UKRAINIAN SOLDIER RECRUITMENT campaign.
  • ALLEGED UKRAINIAN WEAPONS FOUND WITH TERRORIST GROUPS IN NIGER. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
  • POTENTIAL NEW PRESIDENT OF THE IOC to NEGOTIATE WITH RUSSIA.
  • REPORTED ERROR in RUSSIAN TEXTBOOK.
  • Reported Biden return to politics
  • Reported Lithuanian border mining.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR AND DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • **CONTINUOUSLY MONITOR for DRONE ACTIVITY, particularly in KHARKIV OBLAST and around DNIPRO CITY.
   • **DEPLOY AIR DEFENSE ASSETS to INTERCEPT INCOMING DRONES.
   • **ISSUE TIMELY WARNINGS to CIVILIANS and MILITARY PERSONNEL.

2. ADDRESS THE INCREASING CASUALTIES IN POKROVSK (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • **PROVIDE MEDICAL ASSISTANCE to the INJURED.
   • **DOCUMENT THE ATTACK and GATHER EVIDENCE for POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES INVESTIGATIONS.
   • **INCREASE SECURITY MEASURES in the AREA to PROTECT CIVILIANS.

3. VERIFY REPORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, INVESTIGATION):

   • **RUSSIAN MLRS ATTACK in the KAKHOVKA DIRECTION.
   • REPORTED UKRAINIAN TROOP MOVEMENTS near the BELGOROD BORDER.
   • REPORTED DEATH of a RUSSIAN TACTICAL MEDICINE INSTRUCTOR.
   • REPORTED RUSSIAN SU-34 LANDING without LANDING GEAR.
   • CLAIMED RUSSIAN PURSUIT OF UKRAINIAN FORCES near SUDZHA.

4. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The CONTINUED, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS, with a SHIFT IN FOCUS to KHARKIV OBLAST and DNIPRO CITY, are a MAJOR CONCERN. The INCREASING CASUALTIES in POKROVSK highlight the HUMANITARIAN IMPACT of RUSSIAN ATTACKS. RAPID RESPONSE, EFFECTIVE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, and CONSTANT VIGILANCE are CRITICAL.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs

• Kyiv is under attack by drones.: 0.8416
• Explosions in Kyiv were caused by something other than a drone attack (e.g., air defense activity, other military activity).: 0.0512
• The report is inaccurate or exaggerated.: 0.0064
• Vostok group is actively engaged in evacuating civilians from conflict zones.: 0.8998
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
• A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian
• Ukrainian public sentiment regarding the war is waning, potentially impacting their military's ability to sustain efforts.: 0.32
• The Meduza report is part of an information warfare campaign designed to undermine Ukrainian morale.: 0.2
• : 0.2
• The Meduza report is accurate and reflects a genuine decline in the willingness of Ukrainians to fight.: 0.16
• Declining public support will force Ukraine to alter its strategic decisions regarding resource allocation and mobilization.: 0.08
• The report indicates long-term societal erosion in Ukraine due to the ongoing war.: 0.04
• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting
• REPORTED RUSSIAN STRIKE IN ZOLOCHIV, KHARKIV OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• KAZAN AIRPORT RESTRICTIONS LIFTED (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• REPORTED DESTROYED/CAPTURED UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT IN KURSK OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):0.75
• CLAIMED UKRAINIAN LOSSES IN KURSK REGION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): 0.75
• REPORTED UKRAINIAN RETREAT AND LOSSES IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): 0.75
• REPORTED CASUALTIES IN DONETSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• REPORTED SWEDISH MILITARY AID (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): 0.75
• REPORTED ZAKHAROVA STATEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• REPORTED UKRAINIAN VOLUNTEER EVACUATION UNDER FIRE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): 0.8
• REPORTED BIDEN'S RETURN TO POLITICS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE REPORTED DRONE THREAT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• REPORTED RUSSIAN UMPK STRIKE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): 0.75
• REPORTED INCREASED RUSSIAN DRONE USE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• REPORTED ESTONIAN MILITARY AID (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• REPORTED ERROR IN RUSSIAN TEXTBOOK (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• REPORTED DEATH OF RUSSIAN TRAITOR (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): 0.75
• REPORTED AIR RAID ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):0.9999999999999