Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 21, 2025, 13:29 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (12:59 UTC - 13:29 UTC)

CLAIMED RUSSIAN CHEMICAL WEAPON USE, MEDICAL UPDATE (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, NEEDS VERIFICATION):
- Военкор Котенок (12:04 UTC): Provides video and a report claiming that Russian soldiers involved in the "Поток" (Flow/Stream) operation in Sudzha experienced severe chemical poisoning after being in a gas pipe. Claims include 90% lung blockage, "blind" shrapnel wounds, and exposure to a "complex mixture" of chemicals used to odorize gas and protect pipes. Quotes a medic named "Буля" (Bulya) and a soldier named "Тореро" (Torero) describing the symptoms and treatment efforts.
- Assessment: This report REINFORCES THE URGENCY OF INVESTIGATION into the POTENTIAL USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS OR HAZARDOUS CHEMICALS. The details provided, IF TRUE, suggest a SERIOUS EXPOSURE to TOXIC SUBSTANCES, possibly INTENTIONALLY DEPLOYED or RESULTING FROM DAMAGE TO GAS INFRASTRUCTURE. The description of "90% lung blockage" is EXTREMELY CONCERNING. URGENTLY VERIFY the CLAIMS of CHEMICAL POISONING and IDENTIFY THE SUBSTANCES INVOLVED. DEPLOY SPECIALIZED TEAMS to ASSESS THE MEDICAL CONDITION of the AFFECTED SOLDIERS and PROVIDE APPROPRIATE TREATMENT. INVESTIGATE the ORIGIN AND NATURE of the ALLEGED CHEMICAL EXPOSURE, including POSSIBLE UKRAINIAN INVOLVEMENT or ACCIDENTAL RELEASE due to COMBAT DAMAGE. The involvement of the "Akhmat" special forces unit is NOTEWORTHY.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (12:08 UTC, 12:27 UTC, 13:19 UTC, 13:20 UTC): Reports launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast.

Оперативний ЗСУ (12:29): Reports of KAB launches in Donetsk. * Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES using GUIDED BOMBS, posing a SIGNIFICANT THREAT to UKRAINIAN FORCES and INFRASTRUCTURE in SUMY and DONETSK OBLASTS. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT and PRIORITIZE AIR DEFENSE in the AFFECTED AREAS.

RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN LOSSES IN KURSK REGION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- ТАСС (12:21 UTC): Reports Russian Ministry of Defense claims of over 240 Ukrainian soldiers killed in the Kursk region in the past 24 hours, with three surrendering. Claims total Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region exceeding 69,000.

MoD Russia (12:58): Reports over 240 Ukrainian troops killed. * Assessment: These CLAIMS are HIGHLY LIKELY EXAGGERATED for PROPAGANDA PURPOSES. The claimed total losses of 69,000 are IMPOSSIBLE. TREAT WITH EXTREME CAUTION. However, the report DOES INDICATE CONTINUED FIGHTING in the KURSK REGION.

CLAIMED RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE ON "AZOV" POSITIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (12:24 UTC): Provides video claiming to show Russian drone operators from the 20th Guards Combined Arms Army targeting and destroying "Azov" positions near the village of Nadezhda in the Svatove district of the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR).
- Assessment: This is a RUSSIAN CLAIM and REQUIRES VERIFICATION. The video DOES APPEAR to show a DRONE STRIKE, but the SPECIFIC TARGET and EFFECTIVENESS are UNCLEAR. ANALYZE THE VIDEO to CONFIRM THE LOCATION and ASSESS THE DAMAGE. CROSS-REFERENCE with OTHER INTELLIGENCE SOURCES to VERIFY THE CLAIM of targeting "AZOV" positions.
UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES IN KHARKIV REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (12:23 UTC, 13:21 UTC): Provides video claiming to show Ukrainian soldiers from the 154th Separate Mechanized Brigade and the 5th Slobozhansky Brigade using attack drones against Russian forces in the Kupyansk direction.
- Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS in the KUPYANSK DIRECTION. The video APPEARS TO SHOW SUCCESSFUL STRIKES, but the SPECIFIC TARGETS and EXTENT OF DAMAGE are UNCLEAR. ANALYZE THE VIDEO for FURTHER DETAILS. This REINFORCES THE IMPORTANCE OF DRONES in the CONFLICT.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS THAT MORE THAN 1000 PIECES OF UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT WERE DESTROYED. (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE).

Colonelcassad (12:18 UTC): Claims that more than 1000 pieces of Ukrainian equipment have been lost in the "Kursk adventure."
Assessment: This is a RUSSIAN CLAIM and should be treated as POTENTIAL PROPAGANDA.

RUSSIAN RELEASE OF UKRAINIAN POWS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

Kadyrov_95 (12:09 UTC): Reports that Russia released 22 seriously injured Ukrainian prisoners of war as a "gesture of goodwill."
Assessment: This is a RUSSIAN CLAIM and REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

UKRAINIAN AND US MEETING (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE):

Оперативний ЗСУ (12:17 UTC), РБК-Україна (12:01 UTC, 12:47 UTC): Report the next meeting between Ukraine and the US in Saudi Arabia will be "technical, not political."
Assessment: This is a CONFIRMED and POTENTIAL meeting.

US INVOLVEMENT WITH UKRAINIAN AESS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED):
- Оперативний ЗСУ (12:20 UTC): Reports US Energy Secretary Wright stated the US would have "no problem" taking over the management of Ukrainian nuclear power plants.
- Два майора (12:23 UTC): Similar report.
  - Assessment: This SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL US ROLE in UKRAINIAN ENERGY SECURITY.
FRENCH AND ITALIAN OBSTRUCTION OF FUNDING (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED):
- Alex Parker Returns (12:14 UTC): Reports that Italy and France secretly blocked the EU decision to allocate 5 billion euros for ammunition for Ukraine.
- Assessment: This is a REPORT and REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
UKRAINIAN KILL OF CIVILIAN (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED):

Оперативний ЗСУ (12:57): Reports of a civilian death in Kherson due to a drone.
Assessment: Requires INVESTIGATION.

REPORTED FIRE AT KAVKAZSKAYA OIL DEPOT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

Оперативний ЗСУ (11:54 UTC), ASTRA (12:10 UTC): Reports of a fire.
Assessment: Likely UKRAINIAN ATTACK on RUSSIAN INFRASTRUCTURE.

CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCEMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

Сливочный каприз (11:36): Reports an advance of 1 km.
Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (11:56): Reports the capture of Stepovoe.
Assessment: RUSSIAN ADVANCES CONTINUE. LIKELY CAPTURE OF STEPOVOE. CONTINUED FIGHTING NEARBY. URGENT VERIFICATION REQUIRED

CLAIM OF UKRAINIAN RETREAT IN KURSK IS A DISASTER (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (11:38 UTC): Reports of a message on March 9 from a Ukrainian soldier.
Assessment: CONFLICTING REPORT. REQUIRES ADDITIONAL CONTEXT AND VERIFICATION.

UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

Президентська бригада ЗСУ (11:34 UTC): Reports strikes on Russian vehicles.
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (11:47 UTC): Reports a strike on two Russian soldiers in Donetsk Oblast.
Два майора (11:47 UTC), ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (11:20 UTC): Reports a Ukrainian drone, potentially an interceptor.
Colonelcassad (11:48): Reports of Russian drone operations.
Assessment: CONTINUED, INTENSE DRONE WARFARE on BOTH SIDES. UKRAINIAN FORCES appear to be EFFECTIVELY USING DRONES to TARGET RUSSIAN LOGISTICS AND PERSONNEL. UKRAINE DEVELOPING COUNTER-DRONE CAPABILITIES.

RUSSIAN INTERNAL CONCERNS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

Рыбарь, Два майора (11:55, 11:56 UTC): Concerns about retaining personnel in the Russian Armed Forces.
Assessment: REVEALS INTERNAL CONCERNS within RUSSIAN MILITARY CIRCLES about PERSONNEL RETENTION and the NEED FOR MODERNIZATION.

KHARKIV SITUATION UPDATE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (12:00 UTC): Russia is continuing to terrorize the area with KABs and drones.
Assessment: CONFIRMED RUSSIAN AIR ATTACKS.

EU SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (12:01) Reports six countries urging Ukraine's EU accession.
Assessment: CONTINUED POLITICAL AND DIPLOMATIC SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE'S INTEGRATION WITH THE WEST.

REPORTED UKRAINIAN ARTILLERY STRIKE, GORLOVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

Басурин о главном (12:55 UTC): Claims of Ukrainian forces killing a woman in Horlivka.
Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this represents CONTINUED UKRAINIAN STRIKES on RUSSIAN-CONTROLLED TERRITORY, resulting in CIVILIAN CASUALTIES. The CLAIM OF A DRONE ATTACK on a TROLLEYBUS is UNUSUAL and REQUIRES INVESTIGATION.

GERMAN MILITARY AID TO UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

Оперативний ЗСУ (12:56 UTC), РБК-Україна (11:46 UTC), ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (11:51 UTC): Reports Germany will increase military aid to Ukraine to 7 billion euros.
Assessment: CONFIRMED, SIGNIFICANT INCREASE in GERMAN MILITARY SUPPORT.

CONFIRMATION OF US-RUSSIA TALKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (12:56 UTC), Басурин о главном (12:57 UTC), ASTRA(13:16): Confirmation of the talks.
Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS. HIGH-LEVEL TALKS are CONFIRMED.

RUSSIAN CLAIMED ADVANCEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

Сливочный каприз (13:01): Claims advancement up to 700 meters.
Assessment: This REQUIRES VERIFICATION. It's CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR REPORTS, REPORTING RUSSIAN ADVANCEMENT IN THAT DIRECTION.

ENEMY CONTINUES OFFENSIVE IN BELGOROD BORDER REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (13:00 UTC): Reports that the enemy is continuing their offensive.
Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

RUSSIAN FPV DRONE STRIKES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

Два майора (12:32 UTC): Destruction of armored vehicles and positions.
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (12:31 UTC): Claims to have destroyed a hexacopter.
Assessment: Appears to show the DESTRUCTION of EQUIPMENT.

CLAIM THAT UKRAINIAN FORCES ARE PREPARING FOR A COUP (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

Два майора (13:04 UTC): Claims that Zelensky is preparing for a coup.
Assessment: This claim should be TREATED WITH EXTREME SKEPTICISM as it is likely Russian propaganda.

UKRAINIAN FORCES SHOT DOWN A RUSSIAN ZALA DRONE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

Colonelcassad (12:43 UTC): Reports of captured Western equipment.
Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENCE REPORT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

MoD Russia (12:58): Reports repelling of an attempt to invade Russian territory.
Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION. Treat claims of enemy losses and captured equipment with caution; these are likely exaggerated for propaganda purposes.

INCREASED RECONNAISSANCE DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (13:25 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (13:28 UTC): Reports activity.
Assessment: CONFIRMS INCREASED RECONNAISSANCE ACTIVITY.

BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (13:26 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (13:28 UTC): Reports a threat.
Assessment: CONFIRMED THREAT.

RUSSIAN FPV STRIKES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

MoD Russia (13:28): Reports strikes.
Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

BALLISTIC MISSILE LAUNCH REPORTED (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

Николаевский Ванёк (13:29): Ballistic launch.
- Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

Updated Situation Summary

EXTREME PRIORITY:
- CLAIMED RUSSIAN CHEMICAL WEAPON USE, now with MEDICAL DETAILS from RUSSIAN SOURCES. URGENT INVESTIGATION AND VERIFICATION REQUIRED. POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION.
- INCREASED RECONNAISSANCE DRONE ACTIVITY
- BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT
HIGH PRIORITY:
- RUSSIAN FORCES continue an OFFENSIVE in the ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION.
- CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES using GUIDED BOMBS in SUMY and DONETSK OBLASTS.
- UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS continue in the KUPYANSK DIRECTION.
- CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
- RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE REPORTS of CONTINUED OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS, UKRAINIAN LOSSES, and RUSSIAN DRONE DEVELOPMENT. TREAT WITH CAUTION, but MONITOR CLOSELY.
- RUSSIAN CLAIMS regarding the SUDZHA GAS STATION ATTACK. POTENTIAL INTERNATIONAL IMPLICATIONS.
- CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS, with CLAIMED SUCCESSES against HIGH-VALUE TARGETS.
- REPORTED UKRAINIAN ARTILLERY STRIKE in GORLOVKA, resulting in CIVILIAN CASUALTIES.
ENEMY CONTINUES OFFENSIVE IN BELGOROD BORDER REGION
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
- RUSSIAN CLAIMS of UKRAINIAN LOSSES in the KURSK REGION. LIKELY EXAGGERATED.
- CLAIMED RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE on "AZOV" positions in the LPR. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
- UKRAINIAN REPORTS of DRONES in the SUMY REGION.
- POTENTIAL NEGOTIATIONS between US and RUSSIA.
- CONTINUED RUSSIAN EFFORTS to TARGET UKRAINIAN MILITARY INFRASTRUCTURE.
UKRAINIAN NAVAL DRONE CAPABILITIES are being enhanced. * CONTINUED FIGHTING IN KURSK REGION
RUSSIAN TUNNEL WARFARE TACTICS are being used.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS of DESTROYED EQUIPMENT in KURSK. LIKELY EXAGGERATED.
- RUSSIAN RELEASE of UKRAINIAN POWS.
UKRAINIAN and US MEETING reported.
POTENTIAL US INVOLVEMENT with UKRAINIAN AESS. * REPORTED FRENCH AND ITALIAN OBSTRUCTION of FUNDING.
UKRAINIAN KILL of a CIVILIAN.
CONFIRMED US-RUSSIA TALKS
CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCEMENT
CLAIM OF UKRAINIAN RETREAT IN KURSK IS A DISASTER
RUSSIAN INTERNAL CONCERNS
KHARKIV SITUATION UPDATE
EU SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE
GERMAN MILITARY AID TO UKRAINE
RUSSIAN FPV DRONE STRIKES
CLAIM THAT UKRAINIAN FORCES ARE PREPARING FOR A COUP
UKRAINIAN FORCES SHOT DOWN A RUSSIAN ZALA DRONE
RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENCE REPORT

Updated Recommendations

INVESTIGATE CHEMICAL EXPOSURE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- URGENTLY DEPLOY SPECIALIZED TEAMS to SUDZHA and SURROUNDING AREAS to INVESTIGATE the REPORTS of CHEMICAL EXPOSURE.
  - COLLECT SAMPLES of AIR, SOIL, WATER, and ANY RESIDUES in the AFFECTED AREAS.
  - INTERVIEW RUSSIAN SOLDIERS and MEDICAL PERSONNEL to GATHER INFORMATION on SYMPTOMS, EXPOSURE DURATION, and POTENTIAL SOURCES.
  - COORDINATE WITH INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS (e.g., OPCW) to SHARE INFORMATION and REQUEST ASSISTANCE if CHEMICAL WEAPON USE is SUSPECTED.
- PROVIDE IMMEDIATE MEDICAL CARE to ALL AFFECTED INDIVIDUALS, including SPECIALIZED TREATMENT for CHEMICAL EXPOSURE.
- DETERMINE THE EXACT CHEMICAL AGENTS INVOLVED through LABORATORY ANALYSIS.
- ASSESS THE EXTENT OF CONTAMINATION and IMPLEMENT MEASURES to CONTAIN THE SPREAD.
- INVESTIGATE THE POSSIBILITY of DELIBERATE USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS or ACCIDENTAL RELEASE due to COMBAT DAMAGE.
MAINTAIN AIR DEFENSE ALERT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
- MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT in SUMY and DONETSK OBLASTS due to CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES using GUIDED BOMBS.
- PRIORITIZE AIR DEFENSE ASSETS to PROTECT CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.
- CONTINUOUSLY MONITOR for RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT ACTIVITY and POTENTIAL LAUNCHES.
VERIFY CLAIMS OF DRONE STRIKES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- ANALYZE AVAILABLE VIDEO FOOTAGE of the CLAIMED RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE on "AZOV" positions and the UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES in the KUPYANSK DIRECTION.
  - CONFIRM THE LOCATIONS of the STRIKES.
  - ASSESS THE DAMAGE and IDENTIFY THE TARGETS.
  - DETERMINE THE EFFECTIVENESS of the DRONE OPERATIONS.
- CROSS-REFERENCE with OTHER INTELLIGENCE SOURCES to CORROBORATE THE CLAIMS.
ASSESS RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF LOSSES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
- TREAT RUSSIAN CLAIMS of UKRAINIAN LOSSES with EXTREME CAUTION, recognizing the HIGH PROBABILITY OF EXAGGERATION.
- MONITOR FOR ANY EVIDENCE to SUPPORT OR REFUTE the CLAIMS.
- FOCUS ON VERIFIABLE INFORMATION from INDEPENDENT SOURCES.
MONITOR FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS (CONTINUOUS ACTION):
- Maintain all previous recommendations, focusing on the updated information.
- Remain especially vigilant for information on the meeting between the US and Ukraine.
- Continue to investigate claims made about the interference of supplies and funding from other countries.
- INVESTIGATE KILL OF CIVILIAN.

The situation REMAINS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The POTENTIAL CHEMICAL EXPOSURE in SUDZHA is a MAJOR CONCERN requiring IMMEDIATE AND THOROUGH INVESTIGATION. CONTINUED AIRSTRIKES and DRONE OPERATIONS pose SIGNIFICANT THREATS. VERIFYING ALL CLAIMS and MAINTAINING HIGH ALERT are ESSENTIAL.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs

The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.94
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 1.0
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.0
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades

Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 21, 2025, 13:29 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (12:59 UTC - 13:29 UTC)

Updated Situation Summary

Updated Recommendations

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs