Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 21, 2025, 06:29 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (05:59 UTC - 06:29 UTC)
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF BUDANOV BEING BEHIND DRONE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (06:00 UTC): Reports that the Russian Investigative Committee (SK) has named Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR), as one of the organizers of drone attacks on Kursk Oblast and other regions of Russia, and has declared him wanted.
Assessment: This is a RUSSIAN CLAIM and REQUIRES VERIFICATION. It is CONSISTENT with PREVIOUS RUSSIAN ACCUSATIONS against UKRAINIAN OFFICIALS, but it MAY ALSO BE PROPAGANDA intended to JUSTIFY RUSSIAN ACTIONS and DEMONIZE UKRAINIAN LEADERSHIP. The IMPLICATION is that RUSSIA MAY ATTEMPT TO TARGET BUDANOV directly.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF CIVILIAN EVACUATION PREVENTION IN KURSK OBLAST (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (06:03 UTC): Reports that the SK claims Ukrainian forces prevented the evacuation of civilians in Kursk Oblast to use them as human shields.
Assessment: This is a RUSSIAN CLAIM and REQUIRES VERIFICATION. It is CONSISTENT with PREVIOUS RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA, and SHOULD BE TREATED WITH SKEPTICISM.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF COORDINATE TRANSMISSION FOR ATTACKS ON KURSK AIRFIELD (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (06:04 UTC): Reports that the SK claims a resident of the Moscow region transmitted coordinates for attacks by Ukrainian forces on the Kursk airfield.
Assessment: This is a RUSSIAN CLAIM and REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF CAPTURING UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT NEAR KURAKHOVO (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (06:27 UTC): Reports that Russian forces from the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade evacuated three Ukrainian equipment units near Kurakhovo in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR). Claims the captured equipment includes an American MaxxPro armored personnel carrier (APC), a French Renault APC, and a "Kozak" combat vehicle.
Assessment: This is a RUSSIAN CLAIM, and REQUIRES VERIFICATION. VIDEO EVIDENCE is PROVIDED, but its AUTHENTICITY and LOCATIONNEED CONFIRMATION.
UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (06:00 UTC): Reports on the operational situation as of 08:00 on March 21, 2025.
* Claims 166 combat clashes during the past day.
* Claims Russia launched 2 missile strikes with 3 missiles, 94 airstrikes with 151 guided aerial bombs (KABs), 6449 shellings (including 187 with multiple launch rocket systems - MLRS), and used about 3000 kamikaze drones.
* Lists locations of Russian airstrikes: Krasnopillya, Mykhailivske, Urozhdy, Osoivka, Myropilske, Petrushivka, Mykhailivske (Sumy Oblast); Novopil (Donetsk Oblast); Zaporizhzhia, Huliaipole, Kamyanske, Rizdvyanka, Nizhnya Khortytsia (Zaporizhzhia Oblast).
* Claims Ukrainian forces hit 11 areas of concentration of Russian personnel, weapons, and military equipment, 2 air defense systems, 2 artillery systems, an ammunition depot, and a pontoon crossing.
* Reports 9 Russian attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses near Kindrashivka, Mala Shapkivka, Hlyboke, and Vovchansk (Kharkiv direction).
* Reports 8 Russian attacks in the Kupyansk direction near Pishchane, Ivanivka, Kruglyakivka, Zagryzove, and towards Petropavlivka.
* Reports 22 Russian attacks in the Lyman direction near Nove, Novomykhailivka, Yampolivka, Kopanky, and Nadiya.
* Reports 3 Russian attempts to advance in the Siversk direction near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, and Ivano-Dar'ivka.
* Reports 4 Russian attacks in the Kramatorsk direction near Minkivka, Stupochok, Oleksandro-Shultyne, and Predtechyne.
* Reports 25 Russian attacks in the Toretsk direction near Dachne, Druzhba, and Toretsk.
* Reports 53 Russian assault actions in the Pokrovsk direction near Panteleimonivka, Oleksandropil, Zelene Pole, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Novotoretske, Promin', Lysivka, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka, Muravka, and Kotlyarivka.
* Reports 15 Russian attacks in the Novopavlivsk direction towards Shevchenko and near Vilne Pole, Kostyantynopil, and Rozlyv.
* Reports 4 Russian attacks in the Orikhiv direction towards Shcherbaki and Stepove.
* Claims no combat clashes in the Huliaipole and Prydniprovsky directions.
* Claims no signs of Russian offensive groupings forming in the Volyn and Polissya directions.
* Claims Ukrainian operations continue in Kursk Oblast. Reports 18 Russian airstrikes (27 KABs), 363 shellings (4 with MLRS), and 18 Ukrainian defensive actions.
* Claims total Russian losses in the past 24 hours: 1330 personnel, 17 tanks, 28 armored fighting vehicles (AFVs), 101 artillery systems, 2 MLRS, 1 air defense system, 185 operational-tactical level UAVs, 165 vehicles, 2 special equipment units, and 1 heavy flamethrower system.
Assessment: This is a UKRAINIAN CLAIM, and SHOULD BE TREATED WITH CAUTION. It is LIKELY INFLATED for PROPAGANDA PURPOSES, but it DOES PROVIDE INSIGHT into AREAS OF INTENSE FIGHTING. The REPORT OF 53 RUSSIAN ASSAULTS in the POKROVSK DIRECTION is NOTEWORTHY, indicating this REMAINS A KEY AREA OF CONFLICT.
Оперативний ЗСУ (06:28 UTC): Provides a summarized version.
REPORT OF INJURED PERSON IN ZAPORIZHZHIA REMAINING IN THE HOSPITAL (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE)
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (06:09): Says 1 injured from a Russian attack remains in the hospital.
OTHER CLAIMS, STATEMENTS, AND REPORTS:
WarGonzo (06:01 UTC): Provides a front-line summary, claiming:
Russian forces continue fighting near Shcherbaki and are attacking near Lobkove (Zaporizhzhia front).
Russian forces are attacking towards Bohatyr, fighting near Razliv and Konstantynopol, and advancing in Shevchenko (Donetsk front).
Fighting continues for remaining Ukrainian-controlled territory in Kursk Oblast and near Basivka in Sumy Oblast.
Ukrainian forces are attempting to break through near Demidivka-Prylisya (Belgorod Oblast), using minimal equipment and focusing on infantry.
Assessment: These are RUSSIAN CLAIMS and REQUIRE VERIFICATION.
Олексій Білошицький (06:10 UTC): Reports on a drone attack on Odesa, claiming it was the largest, with damage to a shopping center, stores, and an apartment building. Claims injuries.
Assessment:CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES.
Операція Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (06:12 UTC): Shows a video of residents of Sudzha talking about life under "occupation" and the consequences of Ukrainian attacks.
Assessment:RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA.
Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (6:13 UTC): Reports on several attacks in the Kharkiv region:
6 PM - A strike by Russian forces near Stetskivka in the Kupiansk region.
6 PM - A strike by an unidentified drone near Mykhailivka.
2:45 PM - A strike by a "Molniya-2" drone near Prikolotnoye in the Kupiansk region.
2:19 PM - A shelling near Tsirkuny.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (06:24 UTC): Reports the US will renegotiate a deal regarding Ukrainian minerals and wants to incorporate a nuclear power plant under Russian control.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED MAJOR ATTACK on the "SUDZHA" GAS DISTRIBUTION STATION. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE and DISRUPTION OF GAS FLOWS. POTENTIAL MAJOR ESCALATION of the CONFLICT.
CONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES, particularly targeting ODESSA.
CONFIRMED LARGE FIRE at "KAVKAZ" OIL TRANSFER STATION, RUSSIA. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE and POTENTIAL DISRUPTION to RUSSIAN OIL SUPPLIES. LIKELY UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE THREAT, particularly GUIDED BOMB ATTACKS in SUMY OBLAST.
CONFIRMED AIRSTRIKE ON ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION.
CONFIRMED DAMAGE FROM DRONE ATTACK IN ODESA
HIGH PRIORITY:
RUSSIAN FORCES continue an OFFENSIVE in the ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION.
CLAIMED F-16 SHOOTDOWN over SUMY OBLAST. UNVERIFIED, but REQUIRES IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION.
RUSSIAN FORCES continue an OFFENSIVE in the ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION.
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ARTILLERY AND DRONE ATTACKS ON THE NIKOPOL REGION.
CLAIMED RUSSIAN CAPTURE of UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT near KURAKHOVO.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
CLAIMED UKRAINIAN "BABA YAGA" DRONE ACTIVITY.
CLAIMED RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES.
* REPORTED CEASEFIRE VIOLATION AND CONTINUED FIGHTING
* RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF DRONE INTERCEPTIONS.
* CAPTURED UKRAINIAN SOLDIER IN SUMY REGION.
* RUSSIAN CLAIM OF CAPTURED STRONGHOLD NEAR KREMENNAYA.
* CLAIMED UKRAINIAN "BABA YAGA" DRONE ACTIVITY.
CLAIMED RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES.
REPORTED UKRAINIAN RESERVES MOVING TO THE SUMY REGION.
UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT ON ENEMY LOSSES.
CLAIMED UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL in KURSK OBLAST. LIKELY EXAGGERATED.
REPORTED CEASEFIRE VIOLATION AND CONTINUED FIGHTING
CONTINUED FIGHTING near BELGOROD BORDER, with REPORTED UKRAINIAN INCURSIONS near DEMIDOVKA and GRAYVORON.
CLAIMED REPORTS of DRONE ATTACKS in KURSK OBLAST and OTHER RUSSIAN REGIONS. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT details NUMEROUS RUSSIAN ATTACKS and UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE ACTIONS across MULTIPLE FRONTS.
LOW PRIORITY:
POSSIBLE US OFFER REGARDING UKRAINIAN NUCLEAR PLANTS.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS of BUDANOV BEING BEHIND DRONE ATTACKS. LIKELY PROPAGANDA.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS of CIVILIAN EVACUATION PREVENTION and COORDINATE TRANSMISSION for ATTACKS. LIKELY PROPAGANDA.
Updated Recommendations
ADDRESS THE ATTACK ON THE "SUDZHA" GAS DISTRIBUTION STATION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS.
MAINTAIN RESPONSE TO ONGOING DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS.
ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF DRONE INTERCEPTIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS.
ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON NIKOPOL (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS.
VERIFY THE REPORTED UKRAINIAN RESERVE MOVEMENTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
ASSESS AND RESPOND TO RUSSIAN CLAIMS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ANALYSIS AND ACTION):
INVESTIGATE the RUSSIAN CLAIMS regarding BUDANOV, CIVILIAN EVACUATION PREVENTION, and COORDINATE TRANSMISSION for ATTACKS. SEEK INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION.
IF ANY CLAIMS ARE SUBSTANTIATED, DEVELOP APPROPRIATE RESPONSES.
COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA with ACCURATE INFORMATION and TRANSPARENT REPORTING.
VERIFY AND ASSESS UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ANALYSIS):
ANALYZE the UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT for ACTIONABLE INTELLIGENCE. CROSS-REFERENCE with OTHER SOURCES to ASSESS ACCURACY and IDENTIFY KEY AREAS OF CONFLICT.
PRIORITIZE verification of the REPORTED 53 RUSSIAN ASSAULTS in the POKROVSK DIRECTION. DEPLOY INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to CONFIRM the SCALE and NATURE of these ATTACKS.
VERIFY AND ASSESS RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF EQUIPMENT CAPTURES (HIGH PRIORITY):
DEPLOY INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY CLAIMS of advances.
ANALYZE AVAILABLE IMAGERY AND VIDEO
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND RAPIDLY ESCALATING. The CONFIRMED ATTACK on the "SUDZHA" GAS DISTRIBUTION STATION is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT with POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCES. The CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES and OFFENSIVE EFFORTS across MULTIPLE FRONTS require CONSTANT VIGILANCE. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, EFFECTIVE RESOURCE ALLOCATION, and CLOSE COORDINATION with ALLIED COUNTRIES are ESSENTIAL.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
Active combat is ongoing.: 0.6928
The enemy is targeting high-ranking officers.: 0.3
Infrastructure or vehicles have been damaged.: 0.2376
The enemy seeks to disrupt command and control.: 0.1
France is providing significant military aid to Ukraine.: 0.59
France is playing a key diplomatic role in the conflict.: 0.5
Ukraine and France are coordinating their strategies closely.: 0.42
Zelenskyy is attempting to publicly reinforce the image of strong international support.: 0.47
: 0.29
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 1.0
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.93
A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade)
