Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 20, 2025, 20:59 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (20:32 UTC - 20:59 UTC)
OPEC+ PRODUCTION CUTS (LOW PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (20:33 UTC): Reports that OPEC+ has mandated production cuts for seven member countries, including Russia.
Assessment: This is NOT DIRECTLY RELATED to the MILITARY SITUATION in UKRAINE, but COULD HAVE INDIRECT IMPLICATIONS for RUSSIA'S ECONOMY and its ABILITY TO FUND THE WAR. Reduced oil revenue could CONSTRAIN RUSSIA'S WAR EFFORT in the LONG TERM.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov inspected infrastructure development of the Caspian Flotilla in Dagestan.
Russian forces continue operations to "neutralize" Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, claiming over 250 Ukrainian casualties, along with destroyed equipment.
Russian forces targeted military airfields, command posts, UAV storage, and a military echelon with ammunition.
Footage of Grad MLRSs, Malka self-propelled artillery, Giatsint-B towed guns, and Supercam S350 UAV operators in action.
Joint naval exercise between the Russian Navy and the Pakistan Navy in the Arabian Sea.
Assessment: This is a STANDARD RUSSIAN MOD REPORT, combining INFORMATION about MILITARY ACTIVITIES with PROPAGANDA. The CLAIMS of UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES and DESTROYED EQUIPMENT in KURSK should be TREATED WITH CAUTION and REQUIRE INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. The REPORT of TARGETING MILITARY AIRFIELDS and OTHER HIGH-VALUE ASSETS is SIGNIFICANT, suggesting CONTINUED RUSSIAN EFFORTS to DEGRADE UKRAINIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES. The NAVAL EXERCISE with PAKISTAN is NOT DIRECTLY RELATED to UKRAINE, but DEMONSTRATES RUSSIA'S CONTINUED EFFORTS to MAINTAIN INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIPS.
TRUMP'S PROMISE OF A MINERAL AGREEMENT WITH UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Оперативний ЗСУ (20:35 UTC): Reports that Trump promises to sign an agreement with Ukraine on minerals.
ТАСС, «Зона СВО (20:36, 20:38 UTC): Reports that Maria Zakharova claims Ukraine violated the US-proposed ceasefire by attacking a Russian energy facility.
Assessment: This is a RUSSIAN CLAIM intended to BLAME UKRAINE for the FAILURE of any POTENTIAL CEASEFIRE. It SHOULD BE TREATED WITH CAUTION, as RUSSIA HAS A HISTORY OF MAKING FALSE ACCUSATIONS. VERIFICATION of the ALLEGED UKRAINIAN ATTACK on a RUSSIAN ENERGY FACILITY is REQUIRED.
CONTINUED REPORTS OF EXPLOSIONS AND FIRES IN ODESSA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок (20:30, 20:36, 20:54, 20:58 UTC): Report multiple explosions, fires, and ongoing attacks in Odessa, with claims of up to 15 strikes and an additional 10 drones approaching.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS a MAJOR AND ONGOING ATTACK on ODESSA, with MULTIPLE EXPLOSIONS and FIRES. The REPORTS of ADDITIONAL INCOMING DRONES indicate the ATTACK IS NOT OVER. The TARGETS likely include INFRASTRUCTURE, potentially PORTS and ENERGY FACILITIES.
REPORTS OF CASUALTIES IN ODESSA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (20:39 UTC): Reports casualties in Odessa, including a girl under 18.
Assessment: This is a SERIOUS DEVELOPMENT, indicating that the ATTACK ON ODESSA is CAUSING CIVILIAN HARM. VERIFICATION and FURTHER INFORMATION on the NUMBER and CONDITION of CASUALTIES are URGENTLY NEEDED.
WIDESPREAD AIR RAID ALERTS ACROSS UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (20:40 UTC): Reports air raid alerts in multiple regions of Ukraine, including Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS a WIDESPREAD THREAT, likely from DRONES and/or MISSILES, extending FAR BEYOND ODESSA.
UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE REPORTS DRONE THREATS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine(20:41, 20:47): Confirms the threat of enemy attack UAVs.
EXPLANATION FOR TRUMP-PUTIN CALL DURATION (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна(20:43): Reports on the call duration.
Assessment: Likely true, requires corroboration.
FUNDRAISING FOR UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATORS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА(20:44): Requests funds for drone operators.
UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (20:45 UTC): Reports on the following:
156 combat clashes since the beginning of the day.
Two Russian missile strikes and 67 airstrikes, with 96 guided aerial bombs.
1067 kamikaze drones used and 4702 shelling incidents.
11 Russian attempts to breach defenses in the Kharkiv direction.
Six Russian attacks repelled in the Kupyansk direction.
17 Russian attacks stopped in the Lyman direction, with five ongoing clashes.
Three Russian offensive actions in the Siversk direction, with two ongoing battles.
Three Russian attempts to advance in the Kramatorsk direction repelled.
24 Russian assaults in the Toretsk direction, with 22 repelled and two ongoing.
51 Russian offensive actions in the Pokrovsk direction, with the highest activity near Panteleimonivka, Oleksandropil, Zelene Pole, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Novotoretske, Promin, Lysivka, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Preobrazhenka, and Andriivka, as well as in the directions of Muravka and Kotlyarivka. Six clashes are ongoing.
139 Russian soldiers killed and 106 wounded in the Pokrovsk direction, with various equipment destroyed or damaged.
12 Russian attacks repelled in the Novopavlivsk direction, with three ongoing clashes.
Russian strikes with unguided missiles on Novopil and Huliaipole in the Huliaipil direction.
Four Russian attacks in the Orikhiv direction.
No active Russian offensive actions in the Prydniprovsk direction.
Seven Russian attacks repelled in the Kursk direction, with 16 total clashes recorded. 16 airstrikes with 24 guided bombs. 278 artillery shelling incidents.
Assessment: This is a COMPREHENSIVE REPORT from the UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF, providing DETAILED INFORMATION on COMBAT ACTIVITY across MULTIPLE FRONTS. The HIGH NUMBER OF CLASHES (156) indicates INTENSE FIGHTING. The REPORTS of RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES and DRONE ATTACKS are CONSISTENT with OTHER SOURCES. The CLAIMS of RUSSIAN CASUALTIES and DESTROYED EQUIPMENT should be TREATED WITH CAUTION, but the REPORT provides a VALUABLE OVERVIEW of the MILITARY SITUATION from the UKRAINIAN PERSPECTIVE.
UKRAINIAN CENTER FOR COUNTERING DISINFORMATION (CPD) REPORT ON CHANGED RUSSIAN DRONE TACTICS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ (20:47, 20:54 UTC): Reports that Russia has changed its drone attack tactics, using large numbers of drones to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.
Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, confirming the REPORTS of MASSIVE DRONE ATTACKS on ODESSA and OTHER REGIONS. The CHANGE IN RUSSIAN TACTICS poses a MAJOR CHALLENGE to UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES.
Colonelcassad (20:48 UTC): Reports on drone strikes.
UKRAINIAN CELEBRATORY VIDEO (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
STERNENKO(20:49): Video showing drone strikes and Minecraft.
TRUMP'S ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE ELIMINATION OF THE DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС(20:49): Reports on the announcement.
REPORTS OF PROTESTS IN ISTANBUL (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (20:51, 20:58 UTC): Reports on protests.
ZAKHAROVA'S STATEMENT ON US ABILITY TO ENSURE UKRAINIAN COMPLIANCE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
* *ТАСС* (20:56 UTC): Reports that Maria Zakharova claims the US has the ability to ensure Ukrainian compliance with agreements reached with Russia.
* **Assessment:** This is a *RUSSIAN STATEMENT* intended to *PUT PRESSURE ON THE US* and *SHIFT RESPONSIBILITY* for any *FAILURE* of *POTENTIAL AGREEMENTS* to *WASHINGTON*.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
MASSIVE, ONGOING DRONE ATTACK on ODESSA, with MULTIPLE EXPLOSIONS, FIRES, and REPORTED CASUALTIES. ADDITIONAL DRONES are REPORTEDLY APPROACHING.
WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY across MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE, as confirmed by AIR RAID ALERTS and the UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE.
CONFIRMED CHANGE IN RUSSIAN DRONE TACTICS, using LARGE NUMBERS OF DRONES to OVERWHELM UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES.
INTENSE FIGHTING across MULTIPLE FRONTS, as reported by the UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF.
HIGH PRIORITY:
RUSSIAN MOD REPORT claiming UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES and DESTROYED EQUIPMENT in KURSK, and TARGETING OF MILITARY AIRFIELDS and OTHER HIGH-VALUE ASSETS.
UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT detailing COMBAT ACTIVITY across MULTIPLE FRONTS.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS that UKRAINE VIOLATED a US-PROPOSED CEASEFIRE.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
POTENTIAL INDIRECT IMPLICATIONS of OPEC+ PRODUCTION CUTS on RUSSIA'S ECONOMY.
TRUMP'S PROMISE of a MINERAL AGREEMENT with UKRAINE.
ZAKHAROVA'S STATEMENTS on UKRAINE and the US.
Updated Recommendations
PRIORITIZE DEFENSE OF ODESSA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS.
URGENTLY PROVIDE MEDICAL ASSISTANCE to REPORTED CASUALTIES in ODESSA.
GATHER INFORMATION on the NUMBER and CONDITION of CASUALTIES.
CONTINUE TO TRACK AND INTERCEPT INCOMING DRONES.
PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL FURTHER WAVES OF ATTACKS.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT ACROSS UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS.
ADJUST AIR DEFENSE DEPLOYMENTS based on the LATEST INFORMATION on DRONE MOVEMENT from the UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE.
PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL OVERWHELMING OF AIR DEFENSES due to the CHANGED RUSSIAN TACTICS.
CONSIDER REQUESTING ADDITIONAL AIR DEFENSE SUPPORT from ALLIED COUNTRIES.
ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN MOD REPORT (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
VERIFY THE CLAIMS of UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES and DESTROYED EQUIPMENT in KURSK.
ASSESS THE REPORTS of TARGETING OF MILITARY AIRFIELDS and OTHER HIGH-VALUE ASSETS.
COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA with ACCURATE INFORMATION.
ADDRESS THE UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
ANALYZE THE REPORT in DETAIL to IDENTIFY AREAS OF INTENSE FIGHTING and POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
**ADJUST TROOP DEPLOYMENTS and RESOURCE ALLOCATION based on the REPORT.
VERIFY THE CLAIMS of RUSSIAN CASUALTIES and DESTROYED EQUIPMENT.
ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF A UKRAINIAN CEASEFIRE VIOLATION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
VERIFY THE REPORTS of an ALLEGED UKRAINIAN ATTACK on a RUSSIAN ENERGY FACILITY.
COUNTER RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION with ACCURATE INFORMATION.
PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL RUSSIAN RETALIATION.
MONITOR OTHER DEVELOPMENTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
TRACK the IMPACT of OPEC+ PRODUCTION CUTS on RUSSIA'S ECONOMY.
GATHER INFORMATION on TRUMP'S PROMISED MINERAL AGREEMENT with UKRAINE.
MONITOR ZAKHAROVA'S STATEMENTS for FURTHER INSIGHTS into RUSSIAN INTENTIONS.
The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The MASSIVE DRONE ATTACK ON ODESSA, the WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY ACROSS UKRAINE, the CHANGED RUSSIAN DRONE TACTICS, and the INTENSE FIGHTING across MULTIPLE FRONTS require IMMEDIATE AND FOCUSED ACTION. RAPID RESPONSE, ACCURATE INFORMATION, EFFECTIVE RESOURCE ALLOCATION, and CLOSE COORDINATION with ALLIED COUNTRIES are ESSENTIAL.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
Ukrainian air defense systems are actively engaging an enemy reconnaissance UAV in the Zaporizhzhia region.: 0.6464
: 0.2
There is an increased risk of incoming missile or artillery strikes following the UAV activity, prompting the air raid alert.: 0.16
The reconnaissance UAV is attempting to gather intelligence on Ukrainian troop positions or infrastructure in the Zaporizhzhia region.: 0.08
The reconnaissance UAV is attempting to gather intelligence on Ukrainian troop positions or infrastructure in the Dnipropetrovsk region.: 0.16
The reconnaissance UAV is attempting to gather intelligence on Ukrainian troop positions or infrastructure in the Kharkiv region.: 0.16
Russian forces successfully destroyed multiple pieces of NATO-supplied military equipment in the Kursk region.: 0.4
The destroyed equipment includes British Challenger and FV432 tanks, American Stryker, MaxxPro MRAP, and HMMWV vehicles, and Ukrainian BTR-4E APCs.: 0.2
The 810th Separate Marine Brigade is responsible for the destruction of the NATO equipment.: 0.16
The destruction of the NATO equipment represents a significant setback for Ukrainian forces.: 0.08
The destroyed equipment includes a white phosphorus smoke grenade/munition component.: 0.8
Russian military has released images supporting their claim of destroying NATO equipment.: 0.8
Russian forces are using guided aerial bombs on targets in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russian command posts are vulnerable to HIMARS strikes, necessitating improved defensive measures.: 0.32
Acknowledgment of HIMARS-related casualties may negatively impact Russian troop morale and public support.: 0.24
The conflict is ongoing, with both sides actively engaging in offensive and defensive operations.: 0.08
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 1.0
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister
Qatar supports initiatives to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, according to the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs.: 0.9
The Ukrainian General Staff has confirmed the loss of Sudzha, now under Russian control.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russian Drone operators struck a temporary deployment point in Razliv.: 0.899999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Enemy tactical aviation activity in the north, with threat of airborne weapons.: 0.8
Hull Daily Mail claimed 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in the Kursk direction.: 0.1
A Leopard tank was destroyed by Russian drone operators in the south-donetsk direction.: 0.7
A MaxxPro armored vehicle was destroyed by Russian drone operators in the south-donetsk direction.: 0.7
A Russian "Vandal" drone destroyed a Ukrainian "wooden" armored vehicle.: 0.6
Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk region.: 0.4
The Russian Air Force used a FAB-3000 bomb to destroy a Ukrainian fortified position in the Kursk direction.: 0.8
A Russian infantry attack towards Veseloe.: 0.65
Russian advances on the Burlatskoe-Skudnoe line, extending control by up to 2.5 km.: 0.8
In the Kharkiv Direction, units of the "North" group of troops inflicted damage on formations of the assault battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the border detachment of the Ukrainian Border Guard Service in the areas of the settlements of Perovskoe and Kazachya Lopan in the Kharkiv region.: 0.7
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 70 servicemen
