Sitrep 2025-03-20 14:55:31

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 20, 2025, 14:53 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (14:23 UTC - 14:53 UTC)

CLAIMED US-UKRAINE-RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
- РБК-Україна (14:28 UTC): Reports Zelensky announcing a meeting between Ukraine and the US in Saudi Arabia on Monday (presumably March 24, 2025). This will be followed by a US-Russia meeting. Zelensky mentions preparing a list of civilian infrastructure that should be off-limits for attacks during a potential ceasefire.
- Оперативний ЗСУ (14:33 UTC): Confirms the US-Ukraine meeting in Saudi Arabia on March 24.
- ТАСС (14:19 UTC): Reports that meetings between Russian and US experts on Ukrainian issues are under development, with dates and participants being agreed upon.
- СТАРШЕ ЕДДI (14:50 UTC): Reports a change of opinion in the U.S. towards Russia.
- Assessment: This series of reports STRONGLY SUGGESTS IMMINENT, HIGH-LEVEL NEGOTIATIONS involving UKRAINE, THE US, AND RUSSIA. SAUDI ARABIA is CONFIRMED as the HOST. The FOCUS ON A CEASEFIRE and PROTECTION OF CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE is NOTEWORTHY. VERIFICATION of the PARTICIPANT LIST and AGENDA is CRITICAL.
REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KUPYANSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- ТАСС (14:14 UTC): Reports Russian troops are closing a half-ring around Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region, leading to Ukrainian forces attempting to strengthen their units in the area.
- Assessment: This is POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT, as KUPYANSK is a KEY LOGISTICAL HUB. INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION is REQUIRED.
REPORTED ARRESTS AND INVESTIGATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
- ТАСС (14:15 UTC): Reports the head of the Main Center for Information Technologies of the Russian Guard has been detained on suspicion of a crime.
- Colonelcassad (14:18 UTC): Reports a local resident in Mariupol is suspected of involvement in preparing a terrorist attack near the Primorsky administration building. Claims the suspect was acting on behalf of Ukrainian special services.
- Assessment: These reports suggest CONTINUED INTERNAL SECURITY OPERATIONS and POTENTIAL CORRUPTION INVESTIGATIONS within RUSSIA and RUSSIAN-CONTROLLED TERRITORIES.
REPORTED CASUALTIES IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- ASTRA (14:17 UTC): Reports that at least 88 people have died in the Kursk region over the year due to Ukrainian shelling, citing the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs for the region. Claims the number of shelling incidents has increased "almost fivefold."
- Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT CLAIM. It SUGGESTS A HIGH LEVEL OF CASUALTIES due to CROSS-BORDER SHELLING. INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION is NEEDED, as this COULD BE INFLATED FOR PROPAGANDA PURPOSES.
ZELENSKY STATEMENTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- РБК-Україна (14:19 UTC): Reports Zelensky stating that sanctions against Russia must remain in place until Russia withdraws its troops from Ukrainian territory and compensates for damages caused by its aggression.
- РБК-Україна (14:22 UTC): Reports Zelensky calling on the EU to address Hungary's veto, stating it is unacceptable.
- Assessment: These are CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR STATEMENTS. They REINFORCE UKRAINE'S POSITION on SANCTIONS and HIGHLIGHT FRUSTRATION with HUNGARIAN OBSTRUCTION within the EU.
REPORTED UKRAINIAN DRG OPERATION NEAR GORLOVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (14:05 UTC): VIDEO. Claims a Ukrainian DRG (sabotage and reconnaissance group) eliminated a group of Russians near Gorlovka, entering the enemy's rear.
- Assessment: This REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this represents a TACTICAL SUCCESS for UKRAINE, DEMONSTRATING CAPABILITY FOR OPERATIONS BEHIND ENEMY LINES.
CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK ON ENGELS AIR BASE (HIGH, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- ASTRA (14:04 UTC): Reports that the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has confirmed the attack on the Engels-2 military airfield in the Saratov region.
SCHOLZ ANNOUNCES INCREASE IN GERMAN MILITARY AID (MEDIUM, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

Шеф Hayabusa (14:11 UTC): Reports Scholz announcing an increase in German military aid to Ukraine to 7 billion euros.
- Assessment: This represents a SIGNIFICANT INCREASE in GERMAN MILITARY AID to UKRAINE.

RUSSIAN MoD STATEMENTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

*   *TASS* (14:00 UTC): Reports Shoigu stating Russia takes seriously Macron's statements about the spread of nuclear weapons in Europe.

*   *TASS* (14:01 UTC): Reports Shoigu stating Russia will invite the US to a meeting of high representatives overseeing security issues.
*   *TASS* (14:03 UTC): Reports Shoigu stating Russia will increase arms exports due to increased demand after the "special military operation".
*   *TASS* (14:04 UTC): Reports Shoigu stating Armenia will have to join sanctions against Russia if it joins the EU.
*   **Assessment:** These statements are *PART OF RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC* and *INFORMATION OPERATIONS*. The *INVITATION TO THE US* is *NOTEWORTHY*, suggesting a *POSSIBLE ATTEMPT AT DE-ESCALATION* or *NEGOTIATIONS*, but *SHOULD BE VIEWED WITH SKEPTICISM*.

10. REPORTED UKRAINIAN ATTEMPT TO UNBLOCK ROAD (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

*   *WarDonbass.RU* (11:24 UTC): Reports that Ukrainian forces attempted to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group.  Claims the attack was "completely destroyed," and the area remains under Russian control.
*   **Assessment:** This *REQUIRES VERIFICATION*. This suggests *CONTINUED, SIGNIFICANT FIGHTING* in the *KURSK REGION*, and *REINFORCES* the *STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE* of the *SUDZHA-GORNAL ROAD*.

11. REPORTED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES NEAR IZYUM (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

*    *Дневник Десантника* (13:42 UTC): Reports Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian targets in the Izyum area, with local residents reportedly hearing a series of explosions.
 *  **Assessment:** An ongoing concern.

12. CLAIMED UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE ON RUSSIAN MLRS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

*    *БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС* (13:49 UTC): *VIDEO*. Claims to show a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS in Donetsk Oblast, attributed to the 38th Marine Brigade.
*   **Assessment:** *CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR REPORT* from *Оперативний ЗСУ*. The *VIDEO* *APPEARS TO SHOW* a *DIRECT HIT* on a *BM-21 GRAD*, resulting in a *MAJOR EXPLOSION*. This *SUPPORTS* the *CLAIM* of a *SUCCESSFUL UKRAINIAN STRIKE*, *REDUCING RUSSIAN FIREPOWER*.

13. CONTINUED FIGHTING NEAR BELGOROD BORDER (HIGH, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

 *   *Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны* (13:57 UTC): *VIDEO*. Claims to show footage of fighting in the Belgorod region. Claims disorganized groups of Nazis on ATVs tried to hide in a forest belt. Claims artillery and FPV drones were used.
* *Два майора* (14:06 UTC): *VIDEO*. Reports fighting in Belgorod Oblast. Claims Ukrainian forces have been attempting to breach the border for three days, are pulling up reserves, and are using ATVs, with artillery and drones responding. Claims the situation is "completely under control" by Russian forces.
* *Kotsnews* (14:07 UTC): Shares the same video as *Операция Z*. Claims "no occupied settlements and thousands of Ukrainian soldiers on tanks," dismissing reported panic.

Updated Situation Summary

EXTREME PRIORITY:
- CONFIRMED US-RUSSIA TALKS on UKRAINE on MARCH 24 in RIYADH. HIGH-LEVEL RUSSIAN PARTICIPATION.
- INTENSE FIGHTING continues near the BELGOROD BORDER. UKRAINIAN FORCES REPORTEDLY USING ATVS. RUSSIAN FORCES RESPONDING WITH ARTILLERY and FPV DRONES.
HIGH PRIORITY:
- REPORTED UKRAINIAN ARTILLERY STRIKE in GORLOVKA, resulting in CIVILIAN CASUALTIES.
- RUSSIAN ADVANCE to take KAMENKA.
- CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS in KHARKIV REGION, successfully targeting ENEMY DRONE OPERATORS.
PROPOSED EU AMMUNITION SUPPORT for UKRAINE, worth 5 BILLION EUROS. NOT YET APPROVED.
UN REPORT details RUSSIAN WAR CRIMES, including FORCED DISAPPEARANCES and KILLING OF POWS.
CLAIMED UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE on RUSSIAN MLRS. VIDEO EVIDENCE SUPPORTS. * REPORTED HIGH CASUALTIES in KURSK REGION due to UKRAINIAN SHELLING. REQUIRES VERIFICATION. * CLAIMED UKRAINIAN DRG OPERATION near GORLOVKA. * HOUSING MISSILE STRIKE ON ISRAEL AND THE USS HARRY TRUMAN.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
- CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCEMENT of up to 700 METERS in SHEVCHENKO.
- SIGNIFICANT INCREASE in GERMAN MILITARY AID to UKRAINE.
- HUNGARY BLOCKS EU DOCUMENT on UKRAINE.
- PUTIN DECREE on UKRAINIANS IN RUSSIA, potentially leading to FORCED DEPORTATIONS.
REPORTED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES near IZYUM.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES reported near KUPYANSK.
CONTINUED REPORTS of ARRESTS and INVESTIGATIONS in RUSSIA and RUSSIAN-CONTROLLED TERRITORIES. * RUSSIAN MoD STATEMENTS suggest POTENTIAL DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS, but SHOULD BE VIEWED WITH SKEPTICISM.
LOW PRIORITY:
Report about increasing the youth age range in Russia to 40.
News about proposing to ban selling chips to kids.

Updated Recommendations

MAINTAIN FOCUS ON BELGOROD BORDER FIGHTING (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- CONTINUOUSLY MONITOR for FURTHER UKRAINIAN INCURSIONS and RUSSIAN RESPONSES.
- VERIFY CLAIMS of UKRAINIAN ATV USE and RUSSIAN CONTROL of the SITUATION.
- ASSESS THE SCALE AND OBJECTIVES of UKRAINIAN OPERATIONS in the AREA.
- PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL ESCALATION.
ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS.
INVESTIGATE AND VERIFY REPORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, INVESTIGATION):
- ATTEMPT TO INDEPENDENTLY VERIFY the REPORTED HIGH CASUALTIES in the KURSK REGION.
- INVESTIGATE the CLAIMED UKRAINIAN DRG OPERATION near GORLOVKA.
- ANALYZE VIDEO EVIDENCE from CLAIMED UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE on RUSSIAN MLRS.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The CONTINUED FIGHTING near the BELGOROD BORDER, with NEW REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN ATV USE, is a MAJOR CONCERN. The CLAIMED HIGH CASUALTIES in the KURSK REGION REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. RAPID RESPONSE, EFFECTIVE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, and CONSTANT VIGILANCE are CRITICAL.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs

The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.9776
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.93
A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.7
An "Inokhodets" drone was used to kill up to 50 enemy personnel.: 0.25
A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6
A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.63
Two boats were supposedly destroyed.: 0.6
Ukraine is prioritizing domestic weapons production, including rockets, drones, and long-range weapons, despite the continued value of foreign weapons.: 0.7
Kremlin spokesman Peskov denies reports of US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia this week.: 0.7
Damage to the roof of a building at the "Konservsushzavod" plant in Starodub, Bryansk region, Russia, after a UAV attack was confirmed.: 0.7
Alawite leaders in Syria requested protection from Israel.: 0.3
Mothers of deceased soldiers in Udmurtia are being sent to a monastery for rehabilitation.: 0.5
A drone will be sent to soldiers.: 0.4
Quad bikes are requested for soldiers.: 0.6
An image of "I love combat training" has been posted.: 0.6
Online weapons permits are now available in the Diia app.: 0.6
Ukraine refuses a ceasefire on land, as this would allow Russia to recover, and instead offers one on air and naval forces.: 0.7
Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4
The application facilitates improved control and tracking of civilian firearms, potentially impacting military strategies for maintaining public order.: 0.32
The application poses geolocation risks if not adequately secured, which could indirectly affect military security.: 0.24
The application could be used to assess and potentially mobilize armed civilians in support of military operations.: 0.16
The application's permit ordering system enhances bureaucratic efficiency but has minimal direct impact on military operations.: 0.08
Russian forces (Rubicon battle groups) are destroying Ukrainian logistics on the Sudzha-Yunakivka road.: 0.8
Soldiers of the 9th regiment have retrieved the body of their commander, Sergey Chebnev, who died in August: 0.7
800 Russian soldiers used a gas pipeline to infiltrate Ukrainian positions near Sudzha.: 0.89
Russian forces (Sever Group) liberated the settlements of Kositsa, Malaya Loknya, and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye: 0.75
Russia claims to have destroyed more than 340

Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 20, 2025, 14:53 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (14:23 UTC - 14:53 UTC)

Updated Situation Summary

Updated Recommendations

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs