Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (12:34 UTC): Issues a BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT for regions under air raid alert.
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (12:35 UTC): AIR RAID ALERT in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (12:39): Reports a HIGH-SPEED TARGET towards ZAPORIZHZHIA.
Assessment:CONFIRMS A SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION. BALLISTIC MISSILES are EXTREMELY DANGEROUS due to their SPEED AND DESTRUCTIVE POWER. IMMEDIATE THREAT to ZAPORIZHZHIA and OTHER REGIONS UNDER ALERT.
TACC (12:36 UTC, 12:38 UTC): Reports Senator Georgy Karasin and FSB Director Advisor Sergey Beseda will lead the RUSSIAN DELEGATION for consultations with the US on UKRAINE on MARCH 24 in RIYADH. U.S. team to be lead by the National Security Advisor, and includes Jake Sullivan and Victoria Nuland.
РБК-Україна (12:49 UTC): Confirms the same information, stating the US previously announced a meeting for March 23.
Оперативний ЗСУ (12:41 UTC): States that negotiations will take place on March 24.
Новости Москвы (12:37 UTC): Confirms talks in Riyadh on March 24.
Assessment:CONFIRMED, with SPECIFIC DETAILS about DATE, LOCATION, and RUSSIAN PARTICIPANTS. The DISCREPANCY IN DATES (March 23 vs. 24) requires CLARIFICATION. The INVOLVEMENT OF KARASIN AND BESEDA is SIGNIFICANT, indicating the HIGH LEVEL of the TALKS and the likely focus on SECURITY ISSUES.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN INCURSION ATTEMPTS, KURSK REGION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Kotsnews (12:42 UTC): Claims continued Ukrainian attempts to attack the Krasnoyaruzhsky district of Belgorod Oblast, reporting INTENSE FIGHTING over the past two days. Claims LARGE AMOUNTS of UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT DESTROYED, including tanks, armored vehicles, and Bradley fighting vehicles. Claims UKRAINIAN TACTICS involve INFILTRATION, DRONE ATTACKS, and ARTILLERY FIRE. Claims RUSSIAN FORCES are REPELLING THE ATTACKS.
Assessment:UNVERIFIED, HIGHLY LIKELY RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA. REQUIRES INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION. The REPORTS OF INTENSE FIGHTING and UKRAINIAN LOSSES are CONSISTENT with RUSSIAN NARRATIVES.
Военкор Котенок (12:43 UTC): Reports a Ukrainian drone attack on a ROSGVARDIYA SERVICE VEHICLE on the Grafovka-Repyakhovka road in Belgorod Oblast. Claims ONE ROSGVARDIYA EMPLOYEE KILLED.
Assessment:UNVERIFIED, REQUIRES CONFIRMATION. If true, this represents a SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN STRIKE inside RUSSIAN TERRITORY, targeting RUSSIAN SECURITY FORCES.
RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE THREAT, SUMY OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (12:50): Reports a HIGH-SPEED TARGET in the SOUTH OF SUMY OBLAST, moving in a SOUTHWESTERN DIRECTION.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (12:50 UTC): Reports REPEATED LAUNCHES of GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS by enemy tactical aviation in SUMY OBLAST.
Assessment:CONFIRMED, INDICATES CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES.
REPORT ON DRONE CREATION IN RUSSIA:
Два майора (12:03): Showed a video of drone creation.
Assessment: This indicates Russia is continuing to manufacture drones, potentially to make up for losses.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT to ZAPORIZHZHIA and OTHER REGIONS UNDER ALERT. IMMEDIATE DANGER.
CONFIRMED US-RUSSIA TALKS on UKRAINE on MARCH 24 in RIYADH. HIGH-LEVEL RUSSIAN PARTICIPATION.
HIGH PRIORITY:
CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE THREAT, particularly GUIDED BOMB ATTACKS, in SUMY OBLAST.
RUSSIAN FORCES continue an OFFENSIVE in the ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
RUSSIAN CLAIMS of REPELLED UKRAINIAN INCURSIONS in the KURSK REGION. HIGHLY LIKELY PROPAGANDA.
REPORTED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK on a ROSGVARDIYA VEHICLE in BELGOROD OBLAST. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
Updated Recommendations
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
**CONTINUOUSLY MONITOR for INDICATIONS of FURTHER LAUNCHES.
**PROVIDE TIMELY WARNINGS to CIVILIANS and MILITARY PERSONNEL.
DEPLOY AIR DEFENSE ASSETS to COUNTER the THREAT of ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION.
**MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in FRONTLINE REGIONS.
**EMPLOY ALL AVAILABLE MEANS to DETECT and INTERCEPTENEMY AIRCRAFT and MUNITIONS.
PREPARE FOR AND ANALYZE US-RUSSIA TALKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
GATHER ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE on the RUSSIAN POSITIONS and OBJECTIVES for the TALKS.
ANALYZE THE SIGNIFICANCE of KARASIN AND BESEDA'S PARTICIPATION.
COORDINATE WITH US OFFICIALS to CLARIFY THE AGENDA and EXPECTATIONS.
DEVELOP A STRATEGY for RESPONDING TO POTENTIAL RUSSIAN PROPOSALS OR DEMANDS.
ADDRESS THE THREAT OF GUIDED BOMB LAUNCHES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
**MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in SUMY and DONETSK OBLASTS.
**EMPLOY ALL AVAILABLE MEANS to DETECT and INTERCEPTENEMY AIRCRAFT and MUNITIONS.
CLARIFY THE SITUATION IN THE KUPYANSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
GATHER ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE to RECONCILE CONFLICTING REPORTS on RUSSIAN ADVANCES and UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY of KEY LOCATIONS.
DRONE RECONNAISSANCE.
SIGNAL INTELLIGENCE.
HUMAN INTELLIGENCE.
**DETERMINE THE ACTUAL CONTROL STATUS of FIHOLIVKA, DVORICHNA, and KAMENKA.
DEPLOY INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the REPORT of a UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK on a ROSGVARDIYA VEHICLE in BELGOROD OBLAST.
ASSESS THE DAMAGE and CASUALTIES, if CONFIRMED.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
The situation remains HIGHLY DYNAMIC AND DANGEROUS. The BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT and CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES require IMMEDIATE ATTENTION. The CONFIRMED US-RUSSIA TALKS represent a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. ACCURATE INTELLIGENCE, EFFECTIVE RESOURCE ALLOCATION, and CLOSE COORDINATION remain ESSENTIAL.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.9776
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.93
A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.6
An "Inokhodets" drone was used to kill up to 50 enemy personnel.: 0.25
A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6
A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.63
Two boats were supposedly destroyed.: 0.6
Ukraine is prioritizing domestic weapons production, including rockets, drones, and long-range weapons, despite the continued value of foreign weapons.: 0.7
Kremlin spokesman Peskov denies reports of US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia this week.: 0.7
Damage to the roof of a building at the "Konservsushzavod" plant in Starodub, Bryansk region, Russia, after a UAV attack was confirmed.: 0.7
Alawite leaders in Syria requested protection from Israel.: 0.3
Mothers of deceased soldiers in Udmurtia are being sent to a monastery for rehabilitation.: 0.5
A drone will be sent to soldiers.: 0.4
Quad bikes are requested for soldiers.: 0.6
An image of "I love combat training" has been posted.: 0.6
Online weapons permits are now available in the Diia app.: 0.6
Ukraine refuses a ceasefire on land, as this would allow Russia to recover, and instead offers one on air and naval forces.: 0.7
Russian forces advanced
Response from 2025-03-18 17:34:01 (6h-3d old):
Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 18, 2025, 17:31 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (17:02 UTC - 17:31 UTC)
Multiple Russian sources (Colonelcassad, Воин DV, ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, Alex Parker Returns, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO, Новости Москвы) report on details from the Kremlin regarding the call:
DURATION: Confirmed as VERY LENGTHY, with reports ranging from OVER 1.5 HOURS to 2 HOURS 28 MINUTES AND 31 SECONDS (Alex Parker Returns). РБК-Україна states it was the LONGEST IN HISTORY of US-Russia presidential calls.
CONTENT:
CONTINUED DISCUSSION ON UKRAINE: Both sides exchanged views on the situation.
RUSSIAN READINESS FOR NEGOTIATIONS: Putin confirmed Russia's readiness for a "comprehensive, sustainable, and long-term" solution, emphasizing the need to address the "root causes" of the crisis and Russia's security interests.
30-DAY CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL: Putin SUPPORTED Trump's proposal for a 30-DAY CEASEFIRE on ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKES and reportedly ordered the Russian military accordingly. HOWEVER, the Kremlin EMPHASIZED the need for EFFECTIVE CONTROL of any ceasefire, STOPPING UKRAINIAN MOBILIZATION AND REARMAMENT, and cited KYIV'S "UNRELIABILITY" as a concern.
DEMAND FOR END TO WESTERN MILITARY AID: Putin stated that a KEY CONDITION for de-escalation is the COMPLETE CESSATION of FOREIGN MILITARY AID AND INTELLIGENCE SHARING to Kyiv.
PRISONER EXCHANGE: Putin informed Trump of a planned prisoner exchange on March 19th, 175 FOR 175, with an additional 23 SEVERELY WOUNDED UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS released as a "gesture of goodwill."
BLACK SEA SECURITY: Putin "constructively responded" to Trump's initiative on Black Sea shipping security, and AGREED TO BEGIN NEGOTIATIONS on this.
EXPERT GROUPS: Russia and the US will create EXPERT GROUPS for Ukraine settlement.
CONTINUED CONTACT: Both leaders agreed to REMAIN IN CONTACT.
NORMALIZATION OF RELATIONS: Both expressed interest in normalizing relations due to their shared responsibility for global security.
HOCKEY MATCHES: Trump reportedly supported Putin's idea of organizing hockey matches between Russian and American players from the NHL and KHL. (Multiple sources, but LOW PRIORITY.)
Assessment: The RUSSIAN STATEMENT provides SUBSTANTIAL DETAIL about the CALL. It HIGHLIGHTS RUSSIAN CONDITIONS for a CEASEFIRE AND NEGOTIATIONS, emphasizing the END OF WESTERN MILITARY AID and ADDRESSING RUSSIAN SECURITY CONCERNS. The 30-DAY CEASEFIRE ON ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE is a POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, but RUSSIAN SKEPTICISM about KYIV'S COMPLIANCE is NOTEWORTHY. The PRISONER EXCHANGE is a POSITIVE STEP. The AGREEMENT TO FORM EXPERT GROUPS suggests a POTENTIAL PATH FORWARD, but the CONDITIONS set by RUSSIA will likely be MAJOR OBSTACLES. The CLAIM of the LONGEST CALL IN HISTORY is now HIGHLY LIKELY to be TRUE.
Два майора (17:20 UTC), АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (17:20 UTC): Report continued Ukrainian attempts to break through near KRASNAYA YARUGA. Claim destruction of Ukrainian equipment, including UR-77 and BBMs. Claim Ukrainian tactics COPY those used in KURSK REGION and KHARKIV OBLAST in 2022.
Alex Parker Returns (17:13 UTC): Shows images claiming to show a breach in the border defenses, questioning Russian border security.
Alex Parker Returns (17:17 UTC): Reports INTENSE ARTILLERY FIRE on KRASNAYA YARUGA, including MLRS.
РБК-Україна (17:05 UTC): Reports Russian troop buildup near the border in the Belgorod region,
