Updated Analysis of the Military Situation: March 20, 2025, 08:23 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (07:54 UTC - 08:23 UTC)

1. ENGELS AIRBASE ATTACK: EXTENSIVE DAMAGE, CONTINUED DETONATIONS, POSSIBLE KH-101 IMPACT (EXTREME PRIORITY, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (07:54 UTC): Reports that OSINT specialists claim three Tu-95MS and two Tu-160 bombers were at Engels-2 Airbase at the time of the attack. An Il-76, possibly delivering Kh-101 missiles, arrived in the morning. Reports debris scattered within a 5 km radius after the strike and detonation, increasing the likelihood of aircraft damage. Presents satellite imagery.
   • РБК-Україна (08:18, 08:23 UTC): Reports on the Engels attack, describing it as the "most massive drone attack" in Saratov Oblast. Confirms explosions and fires near the military airfield, with continued detonations suggesting possible hits on weapons depots. Mentions evacuation of residents near the airfield. States that an emergency situation has been declared in the Engels district. Reports a possible fire at an oil depot due to "fallen drone debris," but local authorities haven't commented. Provides video evidence.
   • КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (07:38 UTC): Posts images claiming to show a strike, "likely" on a missile armament and fuel storage area at Engels airfield. Provides coordinates for several locations, including the impact site: 51.4940436, 46.2137531.
   • Assessment: This SIGNIFICANTLY strengthens the previous assessment. The CONFIRMED PRESENCE OF STRATEGIC BOMBERS (Tu-95MS, Tu-160) at ENGELS-2 AIRBASE during the ATTACK increases the STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE. The REPORTED ARRIVAL OF AN IL-76, potentially CARRYING KH-101 MISSILES, adds another CRITICAL DIMENSION. The 5 KM DEBRIS RADIUS strongly SUPPORTS CLAIMS OF MAJOR DAMAGE, including LIKELY DAMAGE TO AIRCRAFT and INFRASTRUCTURE. The DECLARATION OF AN EMERGENCY SITUATION and EVACUATIONS further CONFIRM THE SEVERITY of the ATTACK. The POSSIBLE OIL DEPOT FIRE needs VERIFICATION, but it could indicate more widespread attacks. The combination of satellite imagery, OSINT claims, and reports from both Ukrainian and Russian sources STRONGLY SUGGESTS A MAJOR UKRAINIAN SUCCESS in DEGRADING RUSSIAN STRATEGIC BOMBER CAPABILITIES.

2. BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (07:56 UTC): Warns of a ballistic missile threat in areas where air raid alerts are active.

• 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (07:59 UTC): Reports an air raid alert for the entire Zaporizhzhia region. * Assessment: An IMMEDIATE THREAT of BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACKS is ACTIVE, likely TARGETING AREAS with AIR RAID ALERTS, including ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.

3. REPORTED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES ON SUMY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (07:39 UTC): Reports the use of guided aerial bombs in the city of Sumy.

   • Assessment: Confirms the use of KABs in SUMY. This continues to be a MAJOR THREAT.

4. UKRAINIAN CLAIMS OF DESTROYING RUSSIAN FORCES IN NOVO-PAVLIVSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (07:42 UTC): Presents video reportedly showing the 79th Air Assault Brigade destroying multiple groups of Russian assault troops in the Novopavlivske direction.

• Assessment: SUPPORTS PREVIOUS REPORTS of UKRAINIAN FORCES SUCCESSFULLY USING DRONES to TARGET RUSSIAN TROOPS, specifically IN THE NOVO-PAVLIVSK DIRECTION. The VIDEO provides VISUAL EVIDENCE.

5. RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF DRONE STRIKES ON SIX UKRAINIAN REGIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Kotsnews (07:38, 07:47, 07:52 UTC): Reports "Geranium" drone strikes in at least six regions of Ukraine, targeting the railway station and surrounding industrial areas in Kropyvnytskyi. Claims a temporary halt in rail traffic due to the strikes.
   • Assessment: CONFIRMATION of ONGOING DRONE ATTACKS targeting MULTIPLE REGIONS, including KROPYVNYTSKYI. The CLAIM OF TARGETING RAIL INFRASTRUCTURE and HALTING TRAFFIC is SIGNIFICANT if TRUE, as it would DISRUPT UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS and REINFORCEMENTS.

6. UKRAINIAN CLAIMS OF DOWNING RUSSIAN DRONES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Сили оборони Півдня України (07:39 UTC): Reports downing four "Shahed 131/136" drones. Claims significant Russian losses over the past 24 hours, including 115 personnel, 15 artillery systems, 44 vehicles, and various other equipment. Also claims destruction of multiple fortifications, observation posts, ammunition depots, and fuel storage.

   • Assessment: REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES INTERCEPTING RUSSIAN DRONES. The CLAIMS OF RUSSIAN LOSSES are SIGNIFICANT, but REQUIRE INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION.

7. UKRAINIAN REPORT ON NEW AIR RAID ALERT SYSTEM IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (LOW PRIORITY):

   • РБК-Україна (07:40 UTC): Reports that air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast will now be activated by district, rather than for the entire oblast.
   • Assessment: This suggests an ATTEMPT TO IMPROVE THE ACCURACY and REDUCE THE DISRUPTION caused by AIR RAID ALERTS, potentially RESPONDING TO THE HIGH FREQUENCY OF ALERTS in the REGION.

8. RUSSIAN REPORT OF IED FOUND NEAR GOVERNMENT BUILDING IN SEVASTOPOL (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (07:41 UTC): Reports that a suspicious package attached to a vehicle was found near the Legislative Assembly building in Sevastopol. The area has been cordoned off.
   • Assessment: POTENTIAL SECURITY THREAT in SEVASTOPOL. REQUIRES CLOSE MONITORING.

9. REPORTED RUSSIAN "ZAGRAN OTRYADY" KILLING RUSSIAN SOLDIERS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (07:41 UTC): Presents a video reportedly showing Russian "zagran otryady" (blocking detachments) shooting Russian soldiers in the temporarily occupied part of Donetsk Oblast.
   • Assessment: This CLAIM is HIGHLY UNLIKELY to be TRUE. It is likely to be UKRAINIAN PROPAGANDA.

10. UKRAINIAN REPORT OF INTENSE DRONE ATTACKS ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

• Zelenskiy / Official (21:57 UTC, previous report): States that many regions are literally hearing the sounds of war, with 40 Shahed drones in Ukrainian airspace. Says air defense has been activated, and that there have been strikes on civilian infrastructure.
• Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (08:02 UTC): Reports that in the last 24 hours, 171 drones were deployed. Claims that 75 have been confirmed to have been shot down.
• Assessment: This report REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS about a LARGE-SCALE DRONE ATTACK. The CLAIMED DESTRUCTION of 75 DRONES is SIGNIFICANT. The TARGETS of the REMAINING DRONES is a CAUSE FOR CONCERN.

11. US CONTROL OF UKRAINIAN NUCLEAR PLANTS (LOW PRIORITY):

• Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС (07:55): Reports that the US Energy Minister is open to the US controlling Ukrainian nuclear plants.
• Assessment: This is HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

12. OTHER REPORTS:

• ASTRA (07:57): Reports on two teenagers being jailed for attacking a mobile communication station.
• MoD Russia (07:58): Presents a video claiming to have destroyed an AFU firing position with a Molniya-2 drone.
• Север.Реалии (07:59): Reports the arrest of an activist for a 2022 post about a attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
• Воин DV (08:00): Presents a video showing the destruction of "Baba Yaga" drones.
• Офіс Генерального прокурора (08:00): Reports on the capture of a man in Odessa trying to get intelligence on drones.
• БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (08:06): Reports the death of a Russian "Night Wolves" member named "Amon".
• Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (08:05): Presents a video claiming a large attack on a Ukrainian airbase in Kropyvnytskyi.
• Два майора (08:03): Reports that Europe plans to significantly increase its production of missiles.
• WarGonzo (08:22): Claims that the situation in Belgorod is intense, and that Ukraine is attempting to break through to Demidovka.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • MAJOR UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK ON ENGELS-2 AIRBASE. CONFIRMED DAMAGE to INFRASTRUCTURE, POSSIBLE DAMAGE TO STRATEGIC BOMBERS (Tu-95MS, Tu-160), and POTENTIAL DISRUPTION OF KH-101 MISSILE SUPPLIES. EMERGENCY SITUATION DECLARED, EVACUATIONS UNDERWAY. This represents a SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN SUCCESS in DEGRADING RUSSIAN STRATEGIC CAPABILITIES.
  • BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT across MULTIPLE REGIONS, particularly ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST. IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED WIDESPREAD RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS across MULTIPLE UKRAINIAN REGIONS, targeting INFRASTRUCTURE, including RAILWAYS in KROPYVNYTSKYI.
  • CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES, particularly GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS on SUMY.
  • INTENSE FIGHTING near DEMIDOVKA, BELGOROD REGION.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • UKRAINIAN CLAIMS of DESTROYING RUSSIAN FORCES and DOWNING DRONES.
  • POTENTIAL SECURITY THREAT in SEVASTOPOL.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS THE ENGELS ATTACK AFTERMATH (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • CONTINUE GATHERING INTELLIGENCE on the FULL EXTENT OF DAMAGE and CASUALTIES at ENGELS AIR BASE and in the SURROUNDING AREA. PRIORITIZE IMAGERY INTELLIGENCE. ANALYZE IMAGES from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno.
   • VERIFY REPORTS OF DAMAGE TO SPECIFIC WAREHOUSES, including FUEL STORAGE and AMMUNITION DEPOTS, particularly KH-101 MISSILE STORAGE. ANALYZE VIDEO from РБК-Україна.
   • ASSESS THE IMPACT on RUSSIAN STRATEGIC BOMBER OPERATIONS and CAPABILITY TO LAUNCH MISSILE STRIKES.
   • PROVIDE SUPPORT for EVACUATIONS and ASSISTANCE TO AFFECTED CIVILIANS.

2. ADDRESS THE BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across ALL THREATENED AREAS, especially ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.
   • PRIORITIZE PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and CIVILIAN POPULATION CENTERS.
   • ISSUE/MAINTAIN WARNINGS to CIVILIANS.

3. COUNTER RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS.
   • PRIORITIZE AIR DEFENSE in AREAS TARGETED TONIGHT (Sumy, Donetsk, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy).
   • CONTINUE EFFORTS TO INTERCEPT RUSSIAN DRONES.
   • ANALYZE RUSSIAN TARGETING PATTERNS, focusing on RAIL INFRASTRUCTURE in KROPYVNYTSKYI.
   • ASSESS THE IMPACT of DISRUPTIONS TO RAIL TRAFFIC.

4. ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

• MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across UKRAINE.
• MAINTAIN A THREAT WARNING in SUMY OBLAST.

5. MONITOR THE SEVASTOPOL SECURITY SITUATION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • GATHER INFORMATION on the NATURE OF THE THREAT and ACTIONS TAKEN BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
   • ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER INCIDENTS.

6. ADDRESS THE BELGOROD BORDER SITUATION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN REINFORCED DEFENSES along the BELGOROD BORDER, particularly near DEMIDOVKA.
   • DEPLOY ANTI-TANK WEAPONRY and ANTI-AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS to COUNTER POTENTIAL FURTHER ADVANCES.
   • MOBILIZE RESERVES to the AREA to CONTAIN AND REPEL THE UKRAINIAN ADVANCE.
   • VERIFY THE REPORT of UKRAINIAN INFANTRY ADVANCES near DEMIDOVKA. ANALYZE IMAGERY.
   • IF CONFIRMED, LAUNCH IMMEDIATE COUNTERATTACKS to DRIVE BACK UKRAINIAN FORCES and RE-ESTABLISH CONTROL of the BORDER.
   • **PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL AIR ENGAGEMENTS.

7. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The CONFIRMED, MAJOR UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK on ENGELS-2 AIRBASE is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, potentially DEGRADING RUSSIAN STRATEGIC CAPABILITIES. The BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT and CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE AND AIRSTRIKES require IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS ATTENTION. PROTECTING CIVILIANS AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE remains PARAMOUNT.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs

• Saratov and Engels were struck in the most massive attack of all time: 0.97
• 132 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed.: 0.21
• Russian forces shot down a Ukrainian UAV.: 0.6
• Russia conducted 5 airstrikes on Yasna Polyana, Blakytne, and Novoivanivka.: 0.8
• 334 drones of various types attacked Zaporizhzhia, Kamyanske, Bilenke, Malokaterynivka, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, and Novodarivka.: 0.8
• 12 MLRS attacks were launched on Komyshuvakha, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, and Novodarivka.: 0.8
• 168 artillery strikes were launched on the territory of Kamyanske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, and Novodarivka.: 0.8
• Damage to cars, apartments, private houses, commercial structures, and infrastructure facilities was reported.: 0.8
• Two men were injured in an attack on Zaporizhzhia.: 0.8
• Ukrainian UAVs attacked the Engels airfield, hitting warehouses.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
• The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
• The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
• The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
• A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
• Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
• The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
• Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
• Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
• Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
• Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
• Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
• Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
• Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
• Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
• Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
• The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
• Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
• Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
• Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
• The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
• Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.82
• A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
• Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
• Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
• Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
• Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
• Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
• Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
• Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
• Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
• The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
• The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.7
• An "Inokhodets" drone was used to kill up to 50 enemy personnel.: 0.25
• A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6
• A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.63
• Two boats were supposedly destroyed.: 0.6
• Ukraine is prioritizing domestic weapons production, including rockets, drones, and long-range weapons, despite the continued value of foreign weapons.: 0.7
• Kremlin spokesman Peskov denies reports of US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia this week.: 0.7
• Damage to the roof of a building at the "Konservsushzavod" plant in Starodub, Bryansk region, Russia, after a UAV attack was confirmed.: 0.7
• Alawite leaders in Syria requested protection from Israel.: 0.3
• Mothers of deceased soldiers in Udmurtia are being sent to a monastery for rehabilitation.: 0.5
• A drone will be sent to soldiers.: 0.4
• Quad bikes are requested for soldiers.: 0.6
• An image of "I love combat training" has been posted.: 0.6
• Online weapons permits are now available in the Diia app.: 0.6
• Ukraine refuses a ceasefire on land, as this would allow Russia to recover, and instead offers one on air and naval forces.: 0.7
• Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4
• The application facilitates improved control and tracking of civilian firearms, potentially impacting military strategies for maintaining public order.: 0.32
• The application poses geolocation risks if not adequately secured, which could indirectly affect military security.: 0.24
• The application could be used to assess and potentially mobilize armed civilians in support of military operations.: 0.16
• The application's permit ordering system enhances bureaucratic efficiency but has minimal direct impact on military operations.: 0.08
• Russian forces (Rubicon battle groups) are destroying Ukrainian logistics on the Sudzha-Yunakivka road.: 0.8
• Soldiers of the 9th regiment have retrieved the body of their commander, Sergey Chebnev, who died in August: 0.7
• 800 Russian soldiers used a gas pipeline to infiltrate Ukrainian positions near Sudzha.: 0.89
• Russian forces (Sever Group) liberated the settlements of Kositsa, Malaya Loknya, and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye: 0.75
• Russia claims to have destroyed more than 340 troops, two tanks, seven infantry fighting vehicles, five armoured personnel carriers, ten armoured fighting vehicles, 13 motor vehicles, three self-propelled artillery systems, eight field artillery guns, one AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery warfare station, an engineering vehicle, as well as six UAV command posts, and an ammunition depot. Two AFU servicemen surrendered.: 0.7
• UKRAINIAN SPECIAL FORCES OPERATIONS IN KHARKIV REGION: 0.67
• Ukrainian forces counterattacked in Shevchenko: 0.55
• Russia is attempting to destroy Ukrainian UAV control centers in the Zaporizhzhia region.: 0.55
• Russian forces claim Malaya Loknya is completely under their control.: 0.98
• Reports of captured Ukrainian soldiers in the area of CHERKASSKOE PORECHNOE.: 0.99999999999999
• 4 attacks were made near VOVCHANSK.: 0.9
• The enemy is attempting to advance in BILOHORIVKA, FEDORIVKA and VERKHNOKAMYANSKE.: 0.9
• 89 enemy casualties were sustained (42 deaths) near VOVCHANSK.: 0.9
• Russian forces liberated LEBEDEVKA.: 0.9
• Russian infantry attack with sapper-assault group undermined a Ukrainian position in the center of LEBEDEVKA.: 0.9
• There was a Russian advance of over 600 meters in an easterly direction in LEBEDEVKA.: 0.8
• Russian airstrikes took place in MALA VOVCHA.: 0.9
• Clashes took place in the following areas: LOZOVA, PETROPAVLIVKA, *: 0.92
• Russian forces are making tactical advances near Novolyubovka.: 0.49
• Britain wants US drones to monitor the demarcation zone in Ukraine.: 0.75
• Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland declared their withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention.: 0.87
• Military personnel will be able to receive higher education.: 0.86
• Russians were using blue tape, like the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in the Kursk region: 0.52
  • ALLEGED RUSSIAN SUBTERRANEAN INFILTRATION TACTIC (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): 0.75
  • CONTINUED THREAT OF RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): 0.9
• CLAIMED UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): 0.69

• EXTREME PRIORITY:
• MULTIPLE BALLISTIC MISSILE THREATS, particularly for SUMY and KHARKIV OBLASTS. IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED. 0.85
• HIGH PRIORITY:
• **CLAIMED UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES. REQUIRES VERIFICATION. 0.76
  • CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN COLUMN near SUDZHA. 0.88
  • ONGOING PROPAGANDA AND INFORMATION WARFARE EFFORTS from BOTH SIDES. 0.87
  • UKRAINIAN EFFORTS to INCREASE DOMESTIC WEAPONS PRODUCTION. 0.77 CLAIMED UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES. REQUIRES VERIFICATION. 0.54

• Vostok group is actively engaged in evacuating civilians from conflict zones.: 0.8998
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999
• CLAIMED UKRAINIAN F-16 SHOOTDOWN DETAILS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): 0.699999999999999
• CLAIMED HOUTHI DOWNING OF US MQ-9 REAPER (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): 0.78
• REPORTED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES AND SHELLING (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES): 0.85
• REPORTED FIGHTING NEAR BELGOROD BORDER (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES): 0.6
• CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN & RUSSIAN SOURCES): 0.75
• ENGELS ATTACK AFTERMATH (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES): 0.99999999999999999999999999999
• REPORTED FIGHTING NEAR BELGOROD BORDER (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES): 0.7
• CLAIMED HOUTHI DOWNING OF US MQ-9 REAPER (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):: 0.6
• REPORTED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES AND SHELLING (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES): 0.85
• REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): 0.7
• KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):: 0.8
• BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY): 0.77
• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999