Updated Analysis of Military Situation: March 20, 2025, 05:23 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (04:54 UTC - 05:23 UTC)
MASSIVE DRONE ATTACK ON SARATOV AND ENGELS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
ASTRA (04:58 UTC, 05:23 UTC): Reports an evacuation of residents near the Engels airbase after the drone attack, citing "Russian public pages." Authorities have not confirmed the evacuation. The Saratov Governor previously announced remote schooling for Engels. Later reports that Saratov and Engels experienced the most massive drone attack of the entire conflict, citing Governor Roman Busargin.
Оперативний ЗСУ (04:51 UTC): Reports blast wave damage to houses, a hospital, two kindergartens, and a school in Engels. Confirms remote learning for today.
STERNENKO (05:08 UTC): Claims that "unknown UAVs" attacked the Engels airfield, with preliminary information suggesting warehouses near the airfield were hit. Provides images and videos.
РБК-Україна (05:02 UTC): Reports social media posts claiming smoke in images is a result of the attack on the Engels military airfield. Notes the lack of official confirmation. Reports claims of resident evacuation near the object.
Север.Реалии (05:02 UTC): Reports that the Saratov region was subjected to a drone attack. Confirms damage to a hospital building in Engels and one injury, citing Governor Roman Busargin. Reports a later update from Busargin indicating another resident needing medical assistance. Notes damage to a private house. Cites Ukrainian media reports, based on geolocation, of a hit on a warehouse at the "Engels-2" military airfield.
ТАСС (05:12): Saratov and Engels underwent the most massive UAV attack of all time, as reported by the governor.
Assessment:CONFIRMED MASSIVE DRONE ATTACK on SARATOV and ENGELS. TARGET LIKELY remains ENGELS AIR BASE, with CONFIRMED DAMAGE to CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE and AT LEAST TWO INJURIES. EVIDENCE SUGGESTS WAREHOUSES HIT. EVACUATION REPORTS REMAIN UNCONFIRMED BY OFFICIAL SOURCES. This is THE LARGEST REPORTED DRONE ATTACK on this AREA TO DATE, indicating a SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN CAPABILITY and WILLINGNESS TO STRIKE DEEP INSIDE RUSSIA.
RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (05:02 UTC): Claims Russian air defense destroyed 132 Ukrainian UAVs overnight across various regions. Provides a breakdown: 54 over Saratov Oblast, 40 over Voronezh Oblast, 22 over Belgorod Oblast, 9 over Rostov Oblast, 3 each over Kursk Oblast and Crimea, 1 over Lipetsk Oblast.
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (05:11 UTC): Reports the same figures for intercepted drones, attributing it to air defense.
WarGonzo (05:15): 132 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Russian territory, according to the Russian Federation Ministry of Defense.
Assessment:HIGHLY LIKELY EXAGGERATED, but CONFIRMS LARGE-SCALE DRONE ATTACK. The CLAIMED NUMBER OF INTERCEPTIONS is UNLIKELY, given CONFIRMED DAMAGE in ENGELS and REPORTS FROM OTHER AREAS. This represents a MAJOR ATTEMPT BY UKRAINE to OVERWHELM RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSES. The WIDE GEOGRAPHIC SPREAD of REPORTED INTERCEPTIONS is NOTABLE.
Fighterbomber (05:18): Reports that claims of a downed F-16 were not confirmed.
Assessment: This removes the claim from consideration.
OTHER:
ТАСС (04:41 UTC): Reports Erdogan may discuss a settlement in Ukraine with Putin by phone, citing the newspaper Hürriyet.
РБК-Україна (04:45): Key statements by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky during a zoom briefing with journalists.
Новости Москвы (04:50 UTC): Reports a fire hazard season has been announced in the Moscow Region, citing Vorobyov.
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (05:15): Posts a video claiming that "Vandal" struck an enemy tank.
ТАСС (05:16): Posts a video of European countries unable to refuse to export for long due to the need for quality products, as stated by the governor.
Два майора (05:08): Posts a video claiming that their colleagues are making deliveries to the Armed Forces of Ukraine 24/7.
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (05:10): Posts a message and image about 2 men being injured in a hostile attack.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED MASSIVE UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK on SARATOV and ENGELS, RUSSIA. MULTIPLE EXPLOSIONS, STRONG SMOKE NEAR AIR BASE, and DAMAGE TO CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE (kindergartens, school, hospital) CONFIRMED. LIKELY TARGET remains ENGELS AIR BASE. AT LEAST TWO INJURIES CONFIRMED.
REPORTS OF EVACUATIONS near ENGELS AIR BASE. REQUIRES VERIFICATION FROM OFFICIAL SOURCES.
HIGH PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED MASSIVE UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK across MULTIPLE REGIONS OF RUSSIA. 132 DRONES reportedly INTERCEPTED, but this NUMBER IS LIKELY EXAGGERATED.
ZELENSKY'S STATEMENTS on POTENTIAL CEASEFIRES, US INVOLVEMENT, and RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE PLANS. REQUIRES ANALYSIS.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
HOOTHI DRONE INTERCEPTION (in YEMEN). NO DIRECT IMPACT on UKRAINE.
CONTINUED REPORTS of FIGHTING and POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCES in VARIOUS SECTORS.
LOW PRIORITY:
DEBUNKED CLAIM of F-16 SHOOTDOWN.
Updated Recommendations
ADDRESS THE AFTERMATH OF THE ENGELS ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
GATHER INTELLIGENCE on the FULL EXTENT OF DAMAGE and CASUALTIES at ENGELS AIR BASE and in the SURROUNDING AREA.
VERIFY REPORTS OF EVACUATIONS and ASSESS THE NEED FOR HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE.
ANALYZE UKRAINIAN TACTICS and TARGETING to IMPROVE DEFENSES against FUTURE ATTACKS.
ASSESS THE IMPACT on RUSSIAN STRATEGIC BOMBER OPERATIONS.
ANALYZE THE MASSIVE DRONE ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
INVESTIGATE THE DISCREPANCY between RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF INTERCEPTIONS and CONFIRMED DAMAGE.
IDENTIFY THE TYPES OF DRONES USED and their LAUNCH LOCATIONS.
ASSESS THE EFFECTIVENESS of RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSES and IDENTIFY POTENTIAL VULNERABILITIES.
ANALYZE ZELENSKY'S COMMENTS on POTENTIAL CEASEFIRES, US INVOLVEMENT, and RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE PLANS.
EVALUATE THE IMPLICATIONS for UKRAINIAN STRATEGY and INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS.
MONITOR FOR ANY SIGNS of RUSSIAN PREPARATIONS for OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS in the AREAS MENTIONED BY ZELENSKY (SUMY, KHARKOV, ZAPORIZHZHIA).
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The CONFIRMED MASSIVE UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK on SARATOV and ENGELS, REPRESENTING THE LARGEST SUCH ATTACK TO DATE, is the HIGHEST PRIORITY. ZELENSKY'S STATEMENTS require CAREFUL ANALYSIS to UNDERSTAND UKRAINIAN INTENTIONS and POTENTIAL FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs
Saratov and Engels were struck in the most massive attack of all time: 0.64
132 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed.: 0.21
Russian forces shot down a Ukrainian UAV.: 0.6
Russia conducted 5 airstrikes on Yasna Polyana, Blakytne, and Novoivanivka.: 0.8
334 drones of various types attacked Zaporizhzhia, Kamyanske, Bilenke, Malokaterynivka, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, and Novodarivka.: 0.8
12 MLRS attacks were launched on Komyshuvakha, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, and Novodarivka.: 0.8
168 artillery strikes were launched on the territory of Kamyanske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, and Novodarivka.: 0.8
Damage to cars, apartments, private houses, commercial structures, and infrastructure facilities was reported.: 0.8
Two men were injured in an attack on Zaporizhzhia.: 0.8
Ukrainian UAVs attacked the Engels airfield, hitting warehouses.: 0.6
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.82
A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.7
An "Inokhodets" drone was used to kill up to 50 enemy personnel.: 0.25
A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6
A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.63
Two boats were supposedly destroyed.: 0.6
Ukraine is prioritizing domestic weapons production, including rockets, drones, and long-range weapons, despite the continued value of foreign weapons.: 0.7
Kremlin spokesman Peskov denies reports of US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia this week.: 0.7
Damage to the roof of a building at the "Konservsushzavod" plant in Starodub, Bryansk region, Russia, after a UAV attack was confirmed.: 0.7
Alawite leaders in Syria requested protection from Israel.: 0.3
Mothers of deceased soldiers in Udmurtia are being sent to a monastery for rehabilitation.: 0.5
A drone will be sent to soldiers.: 0.4
Quad bikes are requested for soldiers.: 0.6
An image of "I love combat training" has been posted.: 0.6
Online weapons permits are now available in the Diia app.: 0.6
Ukraine refuses a ceasefire on land, as this would allow Russia to recover, and instead offers one on air and naval forces.: 0.7
Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4
The application facilitates improved control and tracking of civilian firearms, potentially impacting military strategies for maintaining public order.: 0.32
The application poses geolocation risks if not adequately secured, which could indirectly affect military security.: 0.24
The application could be used to assess and potentially mobilize armed civilians in support of military operations.: 0.16
The application's permit ordering system enhances bureaucratic efficiency but has minimal direct impact on military operations.: 0.08
Russian forces (Rubicon battle groups) are destroying Ukrainian logistics on the Sudzha-Yunakivka road.: 0.8
Soldiers of the 9th regiment have retrieved the body of their commander, Sergey Chebnev, who died in August: 0.7
800 Russian soldiers used a gas pipeline to infiltrate Ukrainian positions near Sudzha.: 0.89
Russian forces (Sever Group) liberated the settlements of Kositsa, Malaya Loknya, and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye: 0.75
Russia claims to have destroyed more than 340 troops, two tanks, seven infantry fighting vehicles, five armoured personnel carriers, ten armoured fighting vehicles, 13 motor vehicles, three self-propelled artillery systems, eight field artillery guns, one AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery warfare station, an engineering vehicle, as well as six UAV command posts, and an ammunition depot. Two AFU servicemen surrendered.: 0.7
UKRAINIAN SPECIAL FORCES OPERATIONS IN KHARKIV REGION: 0.67
Ukrainian forces counterattacked in Shevchenko: 0.55
Russia is attempting to destroy Ukrainian UAV control centers in the Zaporizhzhia region.: 0.55
Russian forces claim Malaya Loknya is completely under their control.: 0.98
Reports of captured Ukrainian soldiers in the area of CHERKASSKOE PORECHNOE.: 0.99999999999999
4 attacks were made near VOVCHANSK.: 0.9
The enemy is attempting to advance in BILOHORIVKA, FEDORIVKA and VERKHNOKAMYANSKE.: 0.9
89 enemy casualties were sustained (42 deaths) near VOVCHANSK.: 0.9
Russian forces liberated LEBEDEVKA.: 0.9
Russian infantry attack with sapper-assault group undermined a Ukrainian position in the center of LEBEDEVKA.: 0.9
There was a Russian advance of over 600 meters in an easterly direction in LEBEDEVKA.: 0.8
Russian airstrikes took place in MALA VOVCHA.: 0.9
Clashes took place in the following areas: LOZOVA, PETROPAVLIVKA, *: 0.92
Russian forces are making tactical advances near Novolyubovka.: 0.49
Britain wants US drones to monitor the demarcation zone in Ukraine.: 0.75
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland declared their withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention.: 0.87
Military personnel will be able to receive higher education.: 0.86
Russians were using blue tape, like the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in the Kursk region: 0.52
Vostok group is actively engaged in evacuating civilians from conflict zones.: 0.8998
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.76
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.999999999999999999999999
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
