Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 20, 2025, 03:53 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (03:22 UTC - 03:53 UTC)

1. CONTINUED CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS ON ENGELS, SARATOV OBLAST, RUSSIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • ASTRA (03:33 UTC): Reports STRONG SMOKE in the "3rd Flight Town" district of Engels, approximately 10 kilometers from the Engels-2 airbase. Provides multiple photos.
   • Assessment: This FURTHER CONFIRMS the ONGOING UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK on ENGELS. The PROXIMITY OF THE REPORTED SMOKE to the AIR BASE strengthens the assessment that the BASE is the PRIMARY TARGET. The MULTIPLE REPORTS OF EXPLOSIONS, SMOKE, and DAMAGE indicate a SUSTAINED AND SIGNIFICANT ATTACK.

2. CLAIMED TERRORIST ATTACK PREVENTED IN MARIUPOL (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO EVIDENCE):

   • TASS (03:33 UTC): Reports that a terrorist attack was prevented near an administrative building in Mariupol, according to the FSB (Federal Security Service) of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR). Provides video evidence.

• TASS (03:33 UTC): The provided video APPEARS TO SHOW the ARREST OF AN INDIVIDUAL and ITEMS THAT COULD BE USED TO CONSTRUCT AN IED. The CLAIM is that this individual was a UKRAINIAN AGENT tasked with TARGETING THE ADMINISTRATION BUILDING.
  • Assessment: This REPORTS A RUSSIAN COUNTER-TERRORISM OPERATION. The VIDEO EVIDENCE SUPPORTS THE CLAIM OF AN ARREST, but the FULL CONTEXT and VERIFICATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL'S ALLEGED AFFILIATION are NEEDED. This should be TREATED WITH CAUTION as POTENTIAL RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA, but the POSSIBILITY OF UKRAINIAN SABOTAGE OPERATIONS in RUSSIAN-CONTROLLED TERRITORY is PLAUSIBLE.

3. CONFIRMED DAMAGE TO CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE IN ENGELS FROM DRONE ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • TASS (03:36 UTC): Reports that a drone attack in Engels partially damaged windows in two kindergartens and a school. No casualties reported, as children were not present. Staff members were also unharmed.
   • ASTRA (03:38 UTC): Confirms the same information from the Governor of Saratov Oblast.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS DAMAGE to CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE (kindergartens, school) as a RESULT OF THE UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK. While the LACK OF CASUALTIES is FORTUNATE, the DAMAGE TO EDUCATIONAL FACILITIES is SIGNIFICANT and HIGHLIGHTS THE INDISCRIMINATE NATURE OF THE ATTACK, even if the AIR BASE WAS THE INTENDED TARGET.

4. SUMMARY OF RECENT EVENTS (REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Dva mayora (03:44 UTC): Summarizes recent events, including:
     • Alleged phone call between Trump and Zelensky, with Zelensky expressing willingness to cease mutual strikes on energy facilities and move towards a truce.
     • Destruction of approximately 40 Ukrainian UAVs in Voronezh Oblast.
     • Ukrainian UAV attacks on Engels, Saratov Oblast, damaging a hospital and a private house.
     • Ukrainian UAV attacks repelled in Rostov Oblast.
     • Russian strikes on Slavyansk and Kropyvnytskyi, targeting railway infrastructure.
     • Continued Ukrainian attempts to breach the border in Belgorod Oblast.
     • Evacuation of civilians from Krasnoyaruzhsky District, Belgorod Oblast, with measures to prevent looting and ensure supply of food and animal care.
     • Continued fighting in Kursk Oblast.
     • Russian advances west of Balka Zhuravka (Krasnolimansky direction).
     • Fighting in the private sector south of the railway in Chasiv Yar.
     • Fighting in Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), with claimed Russian advances north of Druzhba.
     • Russian advance south of Privolnoye (Burlatskoye direction).
     • Russian advances north of Stepnoye and south towards Lobkove (Zaporizhzhia front).
     • Fighting near Novodanilovka (Zaporizhzhia front), with Ukrainian drone and artillery activity.
     • Civilian casualties in Gorlovka (DPR) due to Ukrainian shelling.
   • Assessment: This SUMMARY PROVIDES A BROAD OVERVIEW of the CURRENT SITUATION, highlighting KEY EVENTS and AREAS OF CONFLICT. It LARGELY ALIGNS WITH PREVIOUS REPORTS, but INCLUDES ADDITIONAL DETAILS and CLAIMS OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES. It's important to note this is a PRO-RUSSIAN SOURCE, and INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION of CLAIMS OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES is CRITICAL.

5. TEMPORARY AIRPORT CLOSURES IN SARATOV AND SAMARA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ASTRA (03:47 UTC): Reports that Saratov and Samara airports have temporarily suspended operations, according to Rosaviatsia (Federal Air Transport Agency).
   • TASS (03:48 UTC): Confirms the temporary restrictions at Saratov and Samara airports, citing Rosaviatsia.
   • РБК-Україна (03:49 UTC): Confirms the report.
   • Assessment: This is LIKELY A PRECAUTIONARY MEASURE due to the INCREASED UKRAINIAN DRONE ACTIVITY in the REGION. The CLOSURES suggest a PERCEIVED THREAT to AIR TRAFFIC and POTENTIAL TARGETING OF AIRPORTS.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED, CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS on ENGELS, RUSSIA. MULTIPLE EXPLOSIONS, STRONG SMOKE NEAR AIR BASE, and DAMAGE TO CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE (kindergartens, school) CONFIRMED. LIKELY TARGET remains ENGELS AIR BASE.
  • HEIGHTENED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY and THREATS to EASTERN UKRAINE, including POKROVSK and DONETSK OBLAST.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CONFIRMED CIVILIAN CASUALTIES and DAMAGE in KROPYVNYTSKYI from RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK.
  • RUSSIAN CLAIMS of DESTROYING UKRAINIAN DRONE CONTROL POINTS and STARLINK STATIONS. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
  • RUSSIAN ADVANCE to take KAMENKA.
  • UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS on ROSTOV and VORONEZH OBLASTS, RUSSIA.
  • HOUSING MISSILE STRIKE ON ISRAEL AND THE USS HARRY TRUMAN.

• TEMPORARY CLOSURE OF AIRPORTS IN SARATOV AND SAMARA, RUSSIA, LIKELY DUE TO DRONE THREAT.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • UKRAINIAN MILITARY BUREAUCRACY.

• CLAIMED TERRORIST ATTACK PREVENTED IN MARIUPOL. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

• LOW PRIORITY:

  • TASS (02:31/02:32/02:35): Flooding and legal issues, not of immediate importance.

• Report about increasing the youth age range in Russia to 40.

• News about proposing to ban selling chips to kids.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN EXTREME PRIORITY ON ENGELS SITUATION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • CONTINUOUSLY MONITOR for FURTHER UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS on ENGELS.
   • ASSESS DAMAGE to ENGELS AIR BASE and CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE. SPECIFICALLY INVESTIGATE the REPORT OF SMOKE in the "3RD FLIGHT TOWN" DISTRICT.
   • PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL RUSSIAN RETALIATION.
   • ALERT AIR DEFENSES across UKRAINE to MAXIMUM READINESS.

2. ADDRESS THE THREATS IN EASTERN UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS on HIGH ALERT in POKROVSK, DONETSK OBLAST, and other FRONTLINE AREAS.
   • ISSUE WARNINGS to CIVILIANS to SEEK SHELTER.
   • PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL CASUALTIES and DAMAGE.

3. VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY, INVESTIGATION):

   • ATTEMPT TO INDEPENDENTLY VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS of DESTROYING UKRAINIAN DRONE CONTROL POINTS and STARLINK STATIONS.
   • ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT on UKRAINIAN CAPABILITIES if TRUE.
   • INVESTIGATE the CLAIMED TERRORIST ATTACK PREVENTION in MARIUPOL. ANALYZE THE VIDEO EVIDENCE and SEEK INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION.

4. ADDRESS THE AFTERMATH OF THE KROPYVNYTSKYI ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MEDICAL ASSISTANCE and SUPPORT to AFFECTED CIVILIANS.
   • ASSESS THE FULL EXTENT OF DAMAGE to INFRASTRUCTURE.

5. MONITOR THE HOUSING MISSILE STRIKE (HIGH PRIORITY, INVESTIGATION):

   • VERIFY HOUSING MISSILE STRIKE

6. MONITOR AIRPORT CLOSURES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, MONITORING):

   • MONITOR THE STATUS of the AIRPORT CLOSURES in SARATOV and SAMARA.
   • ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT on AIR TRAFFIC and LOGISTICS.

7. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS on ENGELS, and CONFIRMED DAMAGE TO CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE represents a MAJOR CONCERN. The CLOSURE OF AIRPORTS in SARATOV and SAMARA INDICATES A HEIGHTENED THREAT LEVEL. RAPID RESPONSE, EFFECTIVE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, and CONSTANT VIGILANCE are CRITICAL.